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LEZ143 Expires:202405160215;;268693 Fzus51 Kcle 152001 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 401 pm edt Wed may 15 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez142-143-160215- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- 401 pm edt Wed may 15 2024
Tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday.
the water temperature off toledo is 63 degrees, off cleveland 52 degrees, and off erie 55 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 160751 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 351 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will continue to build over the area today before another low pressure system impacts the area on Friday and Saturday. Brief high pressure builds in on Sunday before the active pattern returns next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Patchy fog/low stratus has begun to develop over the far eastern parts of the CWA, particularly in areas that received rainfall on Wednesday. Visibilities in the areas that receive fog will quickly be reduced so motorists should use caution, especially during the morning commute. After sunrise, the fog should quickly dissipate by mid-morning. High pressure today will allow for a break in precipitation across the area, although the only peaks of sunshine will likely be across the western counties where the airmass is drier. Tonight, rain chances will again increase from west to east as a short wave pushes northeast.
Overall chance of thunder remains small overnight. However on Friday, the area becomes better situated under the upper level jet and with diurnal instability expect a higher chance of showers and thunder along and east of I71. Not expecting anything severe, but some showers may have efficient rainfall rates which may lead to isolated nuisance flooding.

High temperatures today will be in the mid 70s except along the lakeshore where a lake breeze will keep temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. Tonight lows will drop into the upper 50s to low 60s. Highs will climb into the low to mid 70s on Friday.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
The rain forecast for Friday evening is generally a downward trend from the daytime hours on Friday, as the upper trough that will support Friday's rain/storm chances will lift northeast out of the area. However, another upper trough will move toward the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys for Friday night into Saturday and support a weak low through that region. Therefore, have PoPs increasing as you move south through the forecast area with a slight uptick on Saturday afternoon as the trough axis moves across the region. Upper ridging, along with a surface high building from the northeast, will enter the region for Saturday night into Sunday and will support a dry forecast through the end of the period. Temperatures will be a touch above normal through the weekend, but would likely stay closer to normal on Saturday where rain occurs.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The forecast area will be in the warm sector of a system to start next week. A loop of upper ridging across the region will keep things dry to start. A minor shortwave will ripple into the area on Monday night but will lose its energy as it reaches into the forecast area. Have some lower PoPs for Monday night into the first bit of Tuesday, but suspect that this will become an increasingly dry forecast with the stronger ridge over the region. For Tuesday into Wednesday, a stronger trough will emerge into the central CONUS and extend east toward the forecast area. This feature should break down the upper ridge over the region and allow for some rain chances Tuesday afternoon through the end of the long term period on Wednesday night. Temperatures through the period appear above normal for mid-to-late may in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/
Primarily VFR conditions will continue through this period, although patchy fog is possible tonight, especially in areas where it rained Wednesday. Have opted to include MVFR conditions at all terminals except KTOL and KFDY primarily due to visibility reduction, but far eastern terminals could see lower ceilings push west as well. In addition, opted to lower KERI to IFR conditions this morning with the chance of fog over Lake Erie pushing inland. Will continue to monitor over the next couple hours for a better handling on the extent of the fog. By late morning, all conditions will rebound to VFR and persist through the remainder of the period. Winds will generally be light and variable, but for KCLE and KERI a lake breeze this afternoon will briefly increase winds to 5-10 knots from the north.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with showers and thunderstorms Friday through Saturday.

MARINE
High pressure north of the region will support northeast flow on the lake today. Flow across the area will remain light enough to prevent any marine weather concerns, but the northeast flow will take advantage of the long axis of the lake and there will be some two footers for the central basin. A warm front will cross the lake tonight and allow for southeast flow to take over the lake through Friday night. A weak system will move through the Ohio Valley on Saturday, as high pressure also builds from the northeast. This will allow for northeast flow to return for Saturday and Sunday. Flow should again remain light to prohibit any marine weather concerns.
Another warm front will cross the lake by Monday and southeast flow will return again to the basin early next week.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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