Melville, RI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Melville, RI


December 10, 2023 12:48 PM EST (17:48 UTC)
Sunrise 6:59AM   Sunset 4:17PM   Moonrise  5:32AM   Moonset 3:24PM 

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 1001 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.storm warning in effect from 10 pm est this evening through Monday morning...
This afternoon..S winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of rain. Rain with isolated tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..S winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon..SW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 50 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 7 ft, decreasing to 3 ft in the afternoon. Patchy fog. Rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft or less.
Tue and Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Wed through Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 1001 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A powerful low pres will move across the waters tonight and Mon bringing a period of storm force gusts and very rough seas. Conditions gradually improve on Tues as another high pres builds S of the waters. A cold front will cross the waters on Wednesday. High pressure builds south of the waters Thursday into Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Melville, RI
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Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 101730 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1230 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
Multifaceted storm to impact southern New England today into Monday with heavy rain, strong to damaging winds, and perhaps a touch of snow across western MA. Otherwise, turning drier Monday afternoon and trending colder into the middle of next week. Temperatures likely moderating towards the end of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
9 AM Update...

Fog has begun to burn off across southeastern Massachusetts thanks to cloud bases increasing, but visibility remains reduced across portions of the interior where bases remain below ~500ft.
Fog will continue to dissipate this morning but vsbys will again be reduced by this evening as rain begins from west to east after 16Z.

Should have a dry period over the next few hours, save for some patchy drizzle, for those hoping to get outside and enjoy the mild temperatures.

630 AM update...

Widespread stratus and fog across SNE with locally dense fog in spots. The fog should lift away from the south coast around mid morning but will linger/redevelop along the south coast and persist into the afternoon. Slowed down the arrival time of rain a few hours based on latest hi-res guidance. Adjusted PoPs to reflect this. Rest of forecast unchanged.

Previous discussion...

Latest guidance suite has slightly sped up the arrival time of rainfall across southern New England slightly. Still favoring rainfall to arrive from west to east during this afternoon.
Latest guidance suite has also raised concerns about how much rainfall is possible. That will be further discussed in the Hydrology section below.

Not much chance for sunshine today. Areas of fog across RI and southeast MA likely to stick around most of the day. Fog across the CT River Valley and interior MA should briefly dissipate later this morning, just before the rainfall moves back in.
Expecting the brunt of the strongest winds to hold off during this portion of the forecast.

Despite the clouds, increasing southerly winds should boost temperatures above normal. Should temperatures rise even higher, that would pose a greater risk for stronger winds due to deeper mixing within the boundary layer. Consensus winds of 50-60 kt at 925 mb expected to be in place over RI and SE MA by late afternoon/early evening.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
Tonight is likely going to be messy as a multifaceted storm reaches its peak. Periods of heavy rainfall at times and increasing southerly winds.

Operational HRRR LPMM rainfall forecasts have increased the magnitude of maximum rainfall potential to as much as 5-7 inches. Many of the other members of the 10/00Z guidance suite have also increased rainfall totals. The EMC HRRR showed a 70-80 percent chance for 5+ inches somewhere across northern CT into western and central MA, and even a 10-20 percent chance for totals over 8 inches. The threat for freshwater flooding is concerning, so the Flood Watch continues.

Winds rapidly increase this evening, and especially late tonight, as a low pressure passes by. A strong cold front then marches east after midnight, likely reaching the coast towards noon. Expecting a sharp shift to winds from the west.

Operational HRRR showed a 70-80 percent chance of wind gusts of 60+ mph across far SE MA, including the Cape and islands. Thus, issued a High Wind Warning for these areas. Surrounded this warning with a Wind Advisory for areas slightly farther inland.
The strongest winds look to be during a window from after midnight into mid morning Monday.

Colder air arrives quickly behind this cold front, which should lead to a period of sleet or snowfall across the east slopes of the Berkshires late tonight into Monday. By then, drier air should also be moving into southern New England. Thus limiting the time for appreciable snowfall. Still thinking 1-3 inches possible at most across the highest elevation of the Berkshires.

Above normal low temperatures tonight, with falling temperatures during the day Monday. There should be a tale of two seasons Monday morning, with areas east of this cold front still in the 50s, with readings in the 30s and 40s to west of this front.
Expecting temperatures in the 30s region-wide by evening.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Key Points...

* Quiet, mainly dry weather into next weekend * Temps below normal with coldest day on Thu, then moderating to above normal levels Fri and Sat

After mid level trough exits Mon night, a broad trough sets up across the Gt Lakes then amplifies somewhat as it moves east into New Eng late Wed/Wed night. This will push a cold front through SNE Wed which will bring coldest temps of the week Wed night into Thu, well below normal. Then a moderating trend Fri into Sat as a deamplifying ridge across south central Canada slides ESE into the Gt Lakes and New Eng leading to temps recovering to above normal levels. Overall, much of the entire extended period will feature dry weather as PWATs will remain well below normal. The only risk for a few snow showers will be on Wed across interior high terrain with cold frontal passage.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18Z TAFs: Moderate confidence, mainly due to timing of trends.

Light rain gradually overspreads region this afternoon as conditions lower to MVFR/IFR. Steadier and heaver rain arrives this evening and continues overnight with widespread IFR/LIFR.
Should see rapid improvement to VFR as rain ends 15-18Z Mon but with areas of MVFR ceilings lingering near the higher elevations.

Strong low level jet of 80kt passing through SE New England will result in significant LLWS, mainly near coast, starting late this afternoon and continuing through late tonight.

S winds increase through evening with peak gusts 40-60kt overnight, strongest near Cape Cod and Islands, then winds shift to W/NW overnight but still remain gusty through day on Monday.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence. Timing of lowering ceilings may be too fast through this evening. Higher confidence on winds and LLWS.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Tuesday through Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.

Wednesday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt.

Thursday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Dangerous storm for mariners expected to impact the waters mainly tonight into Monday. Storm Watches converted to Storm Warnings for most waters. The exception being Boston Harbor, where a Gale Warning has been posted. Rainfall overspreads the waters this afternoon and evening, leading to poor visibility.
There is even a low risk (10-20%) for thunderstorms, especially across the southern coastal waters.

An abrupt and significant shift in winds is expected mid to late day Monday as a cold front crosses the waters. Seas gradually diminish through the day Monday, but will still be rough on the waters.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday: Low risk for storm force winds with gusts up to 60 kt.
Rough seas up to 21 ft. Rain, patchy fog. Local visibility 1 nm or less.

Monday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Wednesday through Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

HYDROLOGY
The risk for rapid brook and stream rises, as well as poor drainage and urban flooding, is elevated from tonight into Monday. Most locations within interior southern New England should see 2-4 inches of rainfall. Farther SE, rainfall totals should be 2 inches or less, mainly due to the duration of rainfall. Some signals in the latest guidance for a risk of 5+ inches somewhere across northern CT and central and western MA.
Will be monitoring this threat closely over the next 24 hours or so.

Rainfall of this magnitude during this time of year, where the ground may be partially frozen or debris may be clogging storm drains, only magnifies the runoff and lesses the time before rises on smaller stream and creeks.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
* Coastal Flood Advisory for Narragansett Bay and south coast

Latest guidance suggests the peak surge for Providence will be near the time of high tide. There is still some uncertainty with exact timing and it could end up a few hours earlier or later depending on the timing of the cold front and wind shift.
However, our confidence is high that peak surge will reach up to 3 ft at Providence and 1.5 to 2.5 ft elsewhere along the RI and MA south coast. We think the ETSS and ESTOFS surge guidance is underdone and we leaned toward PETSS 90th percentile given the strong southerly LLJ and 24 hr pressure falls of 24-26 mb, which will enhance the surge. The highest confidence for minor flooding will be along Narragansett Bay due to funneling/channeling up the Bay with southerly flow. The risk for moderate flooding is rather low so we converted the coastal flood watch to an advisory. We would need a 4+ ft surge to reach moderate flooding and this appears unlikely at this time.

The flood threat is lower outside of Narragansett Bay where surge will be less. Worst case scenario would be very minor flooding or splashover along the RI south coast west of Narragansett Bay as well as Buzzards Bay and the south coast of Cape Cod.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Flood Watch from 4 PM EST this afternoon through Monday evening for CTZ002>004.
MA...Flood Watch from 4 PM EST this afternoon through Monday evening for MAZ002>021-026.
Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for MAZ007-013-015>018.
High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for MAZ019>021.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM EST Monday for MAZ020.
High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for MAZ022>024.
RI...Flood Watch from 4 PM EST this afternoon through Monday evening for RIZ001>007.
Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for RIZ001>005.
High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for RIZ006-007.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM EST Monday for RIZ002- 004>007.
High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for RIZ008.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ230.
Storm Warning from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ231-250-251- 254.
Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ232>235-237-255-256.
Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ236.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 2 mi49 min SSW 12G13 52°F 45°F29.97
PDVR1 3 mi49 min SE 11G13 53°F 29.9751°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 7 mi64 min W 7 55°F 30.0153°F
PRUR1 7 mi49 min 56°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 7 mi49 min SW 7G11 55°F 30.00
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 8 mi49 min S 11G13 56°F 49°F29.98
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 11 mi49 min SSE 19G21 52°F 47°F29.96
PVDR1 15 mi49 min SSE 14G15 53°F 29.9851°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 16 mi49 min SSW 12G17 59°F 29.98
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 16 mi49 min SSE 13G15 54°F 44°F29.96
FRXM3 16 mi49 min 60°F 56°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 17 mi49 min 60°F 47°F30.00
44085 25 mi23 min 49°F4 ft
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 25 mi49 min S 22G22 55°F 30.00
NBGM3 28 mi49 min SSW 16G21 55°F 29.97
NLHC3 38 mi49 min 53°F 47°F29.93
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 39 mi19 min S 14G17 54°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 41 mi49 min 56°F 46°F30.00
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 46 mi23 min 53°F4 ft
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 46 mi49 min 55°F 48°F29.91
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 48 mi64 min SE 4.1 55°F 30.0455°F

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Wind History for Quonset Point, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KOQU QUONSET STATE,RI 2 sm58 minSSW 158 smMostly Cloudy Lt Rain 55°F52°F88%29.99
KUUU NEWPORT STATE,RI 9 sm55 minS 1110 smOvercast55°F54°F94%29.98
KPVD THEODORE FRANCIS GREEN STATE,RI 10 sm57 minS 15G1910 smOvercast59°F55°F88%29.98
KSFZ NORTH CENTRAL STATE,RI 24 sm32 minvar 0410 smOvercast57°F55°F94%29.95

Wind History from OQU
(wind in knots)


Tide / Current for Wickford, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island
   
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Wickford
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Sun -- 04:31 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:34 AM EST     4.08 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:20 AM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:23 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:15 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:54 PM EST     3.38 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:13 PM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Wickford, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, Tide feet
12
am
0.4
1
am
1
2
am
1.7
3
am
2.5
4
am
3.4
5
am
4
6
am
4
7
am
3.4
8
am
2.4
9
am
1.3
10
am
0.5
11
am
0.1
12
pm
0.2
1
pm
0.5
2
pm
1
3
pm
1.7
4
pm
2.5
5
pm
3.1
6
pm
3.4
7
pm
3
8
pm
2.1
9
pm
1.1
10
pm
0.2
11
pm
-0.1



Tide / Current for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
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Sun -- 12:22 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:00 AM EST     1.97 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:29 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:14 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:45 AM EST     -2.53 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 12:42 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:22 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:14 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 04:25 PM EST     2.14 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:46 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:10 PM EST     -2.37 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current, knots
12
am
-0.3
1
am
0.4
2
am
1.1
3
am
1.7
4
am
2
5
am
1.6
6
am
0.4
7
am
-1.2
8
am
-2.3
9
am
-2.5
10
am
-2
11
am
-1.3
12
pm
-0.5
1
pm
0.2
2
pm
1
3
pm
1.6
4
pm
2.1
5
pm
2
6
pm
1.1
7
pm
-0.4
8
pm
-1.8
9
pm
-2.4
10
pm
-2.1
11
pm
-1.5




Weather Map
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Boston, MA,



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