Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Melville, RI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 4:17PM Thursday December 12, 2019 5:45 AM EST (10:45 UTC) Moonrise 5:51PMMoonset 8:18AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 322 Am Est Thu Dec 12 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 am est this morning...
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt this afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Tonight..SE winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Rain likely.
Sun and Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain and snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 322 Am Est Thu Dec 12 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Large high pres builds over the waters today and tonight. The high will move off the coast on Fri as low pres approaches from the southwest Fri night and moves across the waters on Sat. A cold front crosses the waters Sun followed by another high pres system Mon. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Melville CDP, RI
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location: 41.58, -71.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 120936 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 436 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will bring dry, but cold weather to the region today and tonight. The high moves off east of the region Friday, bringing the risk for scattered light precipitation across western Massachusetts and northern Connecticut, which may begin as a very light wintry mix. Temperatures will gradually increase Friday night as winds become onshore. Low pressure will bring mainly rain Friday night and Saturday which will fall heavily at times. Dry and blustery conditions move in on Sunday, then colder air arrives Monday. Another system brings snow to start Monday night, then a wintry mix that will change to rain across the coastal plain, but remaining mixed rain and/or snow well inland into Tuesday. Dry and cold conditions return during Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. 315 AM Update .

Large high pressure building into the region today will result in sunny skies but cold temperatures. High should top out between 30 and 35 in most locations with some upper 20s in the high terrain. We may see some lingering 20 to 25 mph wind gusts for a time this morning, but these should diminish by afternoon as high pressure builds over the region.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/.

* Risk for very light icing across parts of the interior Friday with the greatest threat across the CT River Valley

Tonight .

High pressure overhead this evening will allow for light winds and mainly clear skies this evening. This should result in temperatures quickly falling after sunset across the typically coldest outlying locations. Temps quickly drop into the teens this evening in many areas with light winds and snow cover. However, temps should level off or rise after midnight as clouds begin to increase from the west. This in response to high pressure moving off the coast and warm air advection commencing aloft.

Friday .

High pressure will continue to move east and away from the region as shortwave energy approaches from the southwest. This will induce a modest southwest LLJ and moisture return. The best forcing/moisture will reside across interior MA and CT, where some scattered light precipitation may develop. Ptype might be initially cold enough for a bit of very light snow across parts of the interior. However, warming aloft and limited saturation for ice nucleation may result in pockets of light freezing rain/freezing drizzle across the interior if temps remain below freezing for a time. The greatest risk for this will be across the CT River Valley, where high resolution model data indicates very light northerly surface winds persisting. Based on pattern recognition, guidance temps are likely too warm and it may take some time for temps to get above freezing even by Friday afternoon. If any icing occurs amounts will be very light, but it only takes a very small amount to create for hazardous travel. Something will have to examine more closely with latter model runs.

Meanwhile, south to southeast low level flow should allow the coastal plain to reach into the 40s. Mainly dry weather should also persist across eastern MA/RI for much of the day, although can not rule out a spot shower or two late.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/.

Highlights .

* Temperatures will moderate Friday night as low pressure brings to the potential for heavy rain & localized flooding on Saturday. Flooding risks may be increased with the snow melt.

* Leftover rain and/or snow showers linger well inland early Sunday. Strong northwest winds Sunday, especially in coastal areas with gusts up to 40 kts. Gale headlines will likely be needed across the waters.

* Dry and seasonably cold conditions Monday

* Next system approaches Monday night & Tuesday . Another round of snow before mixing with or changing to rain, but confidence remains low. Details .

Friday night and Saturday .

***Heavy Rain and Flood Potential on Saturday***

Low pressure exits the Maritimes Fri evening as low pressure develops across the mid Atlc states or near the Delmarva peninsula. Expect an increasing E-SE wind flow, which will bring deep moisture across the region. Temperatures will start off in the 30s well inland to 40-45 along the coast Fri evening, then the onshore winds will bring rising readings through the remainder of the night.

00Z models continue to signal a strong surge of deep layer moisture working up the coast. 00Z GEFS ensembles showing the potential of PWATs up to 3 to 4 SD above normal during Saturday across the coastal plain (1 to 1.5 inches). Overall model blend suggests QPF values from 0.5 inches across the CT valley ranging to 0.75 to 1 inch further E, highest along the immediate coast from 12Z-18Z Saturday, with another 0.1 to 0.3 inches Saturday afternoon. So, with this influx of heavy rainfall along with snowmelt thanks to the milder temperatures, the potential remains high for urban and poor drainage flooding especially across central and eastern areas. Will also monitor the potential for river level rises as well.

Expect SE winds to increase during the day especially across eastern areas and along the coast, with gusts up to 20 to 30 mph Saturday morning through around midday before briefly diminishing.

With the mild wind flow in place, expect temps on Saturday to top off in the mid-upper 40s well inland ranging to the mid 50s across the coastal plain.

Saturday night and Sunday .

***Strong winds Sunday***

Low pressure exits to northern New England Saturday night, then to the Maritimes and Newfoundland during Sunday. Rain will exit from south to north Sat night, though could see a mix with snow across the E slopes of the Berkshires after midnight. With the diminishing moisture, QPF amounts will decrease so there will be only light snow accumulations there.

Skies will become partly to mostly sunny across the coastal plain during the afternoon, while clouds linger further inland. With the low deepening across the Maritimes, down to around 980 hPa late Saturday night and Sunday, westerly winds will increase. Gusts will increase to 30 to 40 mph mainly across the higher inland terrain and along the coast. Temps will top off in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the higher terrain ranging to the upper 40s across the coastal plain. With the gusty winds, though, wind chills will be in the mid-upper 20s inland to the 30s elsewhere.

Expect strongest wind gusts across the coastal waters, so gale warnings remain likely.

Monday through Wednesday .

Progressive mid level steering pattern remains in place across the region, so will see changing weather conditions continue.

A mainly dry cold front moves offshore late Sunday night, so will see another surge of cold air working across the region to start off the work week. Highs on Monday will only reach the upper 20s to mid 30s well inland and across the higher terrain to the upper 30s to around 40 along the coast.

Another weather system will approaches Monday night, with another shot of snow to start, then milder air will start to work in during Tuesday which should cause the snow to mix with sleet and snow, then eventually rain. However, this far out, timing and track of the low and precipitation potential is still in question.

For now, looks like the precipitation should taper off late Tuesday night into Wednesday with continued cold temperatures.

AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Friday/ .

Today . High confidence in VFR conditions. Lingering NW wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots diminish this morning.

Tonight . High confidence. Mainly VFR conditions, but some MVFR cigs may arrive across parts of the interior toward daybreak.

Friday . Moderate to high confidence. MVFR to IFR conditions dominate across interior MA & CT with scattered light precipitation expected to develop. It may be cold enough for some very light snow and/or freezing drizzle. Greatest risk for freezing drizzle would be across the BAF and BDL terminals. Meanwhile, across eastern MA and RI marginal MVFR to VFR conditions expected with mainly dry weather.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/ .

Friday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. RA likely, FZRA likely, patchy BR.

Saturday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. RA, patchy BR.

Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. RA likely.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Sunday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Monday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

MARINE.

Short Term /through Friday/ .

Today . High confidence. NW wind gusts of 25 to 35 knots will diminish this morning as high pressure builds in from the west. Will allow Gale Headlines to expire for our eastern outer waters at 12z with the remainder of SCA Headlines expiring by afternoon.

Tonight and Friday . High confidence. High pressure will be in control of our waters tonight keeping winds/seas below small craft thresholds. High pressure moves east of the waters Fri, allowing southerly winds to increase with gusts of 20 to 25 knots developing during the afternoon. We also may see some marginal 5 foot seas develop across our outer waters, so SCA headlines will need to be considered.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/ .

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain likely. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Rain. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Rain likely.

Sunday through Sunday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft.

Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ231>235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ230- 236. Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ250-251-254. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ255-256.

SYNOPSIS . Frank/EVT NEAR TERM . Frank SHORT TERM . Frank LONG TERM . EVT AVIATION . Frank/EVT MARINE . Frank/EVT


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 2 mi51 min NW 9.9 G 17 26°F 43°F1035 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 7 mi60 min NNW 8.9 25°F 1035 hPa16°F
PRUR1 7 mi45 min 26°F 15°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 7 mi45 min NNW 7 G 19 26°F 1035.5 hPa (+2.8)
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 8 mi51 min NW 13 G 19 27°F 40°F1035 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 11 mi45 min WNW 18 G 21 26°F 43°F
PVDR1 15 mi45 min WNW 8.9 G 13 25°F 1035.9 hPa (+3.6)12°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 16 mi51 min NW 8 G 12 25°F 42°F1035.9 hPa
FRXM3 16 mi51 min 28°F 15°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 16 mi45 min NW 11 G 14 27°F 1035.3 hPa (+3.3)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 17 mi51 min 27°F 42°F1035.4 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 25 mi45 min NW 22 G 26 28°F 1035.2 hPa (+3.0)
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 38 mi45 min NNW 2.9 G 6 25°F 41°F1036.1 hPa (+3.4)
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 39 mi30 min NW 6 G 11 26°F 12°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 41 mi51 min 28°F 42°F1034.8 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 45 mi15 min 52°F6 ft
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 46 mi51 min 30°F 44°F1036.3 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 48 mi60 min W 2.9 34°F 1034 hPa28°F

Wind History for Quonset Point, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI9 mi52 minNW 14 G 2110.00 miFair26°F12°F57%1034.7 hPa
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI10 mi54 minWNW 810.00 miFair25°F12°F60%1035.5 hPa
Pawtucket, North Central State Airport, RI23 mi49 minWNW 610.00 miFair20°F12°F74%1029.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOQU

Wind History from OQU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----------------N15N8N7NW12NW4NW8NW8NW7W8W10W6SW10SW8W10W10W6
1 day ago----------------SW8--SW10SW15W16SW15SW18SW10SW14SW12SW15W12SW10N13NW8N10
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Wickford, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island
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Wickford
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 12:36 AM EST     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:18 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 07:39 AM EST     4.53 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:22 PM EST     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:15 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:51 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:02 PM EST     3.68 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.3-0.400.81.72.73.74.44.53.92.61.20.2-0.3-0.30.20.81.72.63.33.73.42.41.1

Tide / Current Tables for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 02:23 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:08 AM EST     1.94 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:16 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 08:22 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:53 AM EST     -2.86 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:30 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:14 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:49 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:30 PM EST     2.28 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:56 PM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:21 PM EST     -2.70 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.9-1.1-0.30.41.11.61.91.70.6-1.1-2.4-2.9-2.4-1.4-0.50.41.21.82.22.21.4-0.1-1.7-2.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.