Melville, RI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Melville, RI

May 15, 2024 6:55 AM EDT (10:55 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:24 AM   Sunset 8:00 PM
Moonrise 12:16 PM   Moonset 2:02 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 404 Am Edt Wed May 15 2024

Today - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers. Isolated tstms this afternoon. Patchy fog this morning with vsby 1 nm or less.

Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Thu - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely.

Thu night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.

Fri and Fri night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.

Sat and Sat night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.

Sun and Sun night - NE winds around 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 404 Am Edt Wed May 15 2024

Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - High pres to our east will maintan a modest southerly flow over the waters today. Low pres to then move E from the mid atlc coast tonight into Thu, shifting winds to the se to E across the waters. This low pres slowly moves farther out to sea through Sat. Weak high pres expected across the waters for Sun.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Melville, RI
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Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 150724 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 324 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
Isolated to scattered showers today before more widespread showers develop as low pressure moves south of SNE tonight.
Drying trend on Thursday. Weather pattern for late in the week into the weekend is a cloudy and unsettled one with onshore breezes forcing cooler temperatures near the coastlines. While we can't rule out a few showers from time to time, drier weather generally prevails late this week into the weekend. Trending drier with a potential warm-up into early to mid next week.

Highlights:

* Unsettled late-week into the weekend, with onshore flow favoring generally dry weather but with considerable cloudiness on most days. Better, although limited, chance for rain is around late Sunday but no significant rains or washouts are expected.

* Possible pattern change toward even milder weather around midweek?

Details:

00z suite of global ensembles still depict a generally unsettled weather pattern in this period, with two closed-off upper level lows moving through the mid-Atlc states, thus progged to be suppressed to our south. One of these features sags ESE Thursday night into Friday south of our waters, with another anticipated to pass to our south around Sunday night or into Monday. Related moisture tied to these disturbances will keep a generous amt of cloud cover around on most days; while we can't rule out a spot shower or two, the southward/suppressed tendency of these disturbances depicted in most of the ensembles should favor drier weather more often than not.
Onshore flow being produced by a surface ridge of high pressure nosing in from Nova Scotia would tend to favor cooler temps near the coast and several degrees warmer inland for late in the week through the weekend. There is more uncertainty in the pattern as we move into early to mid next week, with some solutions offering a warmup and less cloud cover, while the Canadian GEM indicating a continuation of unsettled conditions.

Thursday Night through Friday:

Coastal low pressure which is expected to bring showers to areas largely south of the Mass Pike on Thurs will continue to shift southward Thurs night into early Fri, with surface ridge of high pressure over Nova Scotia gradually taking hold. We should see decreasing rain chances into the evening and overnight hrs, with Fri trending drier but still with partly to mostly cloudy conditions and onshore breezes, with greater cloud cover south and east. Rain amts on Thurs night are light though. For temperatures, highs could struggle to reach the lower 60s near the coasts on Fri with the cooler onshore flow, but seem likely to reach into the lower to mid 70s further inland. Above-normal lows in the low to mid 50s for Thurs and Fri nights.

The Weekend into Monday:

Saturday is still looking cloudy but generally dry under continued surface ridge of high pressure, with cooler onshore breezes and similar high temps to those from Fri.

Next upper level low pressure tries to move in around later Sunday or into Mon. The Canadian GEM is the most bullish in bringing steady rains in, while the GFS keeps any rains to far southwestern areas, and the ECMWF is the driest and would favor dry weather for all of SNE. So still uncertainty in the specifics to work through; I opted to keep a slight to low chance mention of showers in the forecast for now. PoPs will need adjusting once there is better cross-model agreement. Kept highs in the 60s in all areas both days, again coolest near the coast.

As of now, Saturday looks to be the pick of the weekend but it still will feature a good amt of cloud cover.

Tuesday and Wednesday:

While the Canadian solution in this period maintains continued cloudy conditions with periodic showers, indications in the ECMWF and GFS solutions depict a potential warmup toward early-summerlike temps and less cloud cover. For now maintained NBM for this portion of the forecast given the disparity in outcomes, though with a little lean toward the GFS/ECMWF drier/warmer idea.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

Light returns on radar have been very slow to translate into observed precipitation overnight as shower activity advances northward from Long Island/NYC into the Hudson River Valley/Central CT given dry air from the sfc to ~800mb. Scattered showers are expected to fill in across Connecticut and southwestern MA this morning, but lingering dry air associated with weak persistent ridging (that brought highs into the 80s for some yesterday!) should be enough to stave off significant shower activity for the eastern half of the CWA CAMs, and model soundings, do introduce a bit of uncertainty, particularly prior to 18Z this afternoon, regarding how far east shower activity can advance but all in all not expecting a washout of a day for any particular location. Will note that there is just a tiny bit of instability, about 150J/kg CAPE, that could translate into an isolated rumble or thunder or two. Should see a dry period develop later this afternoon ahead of increasing precip chances tonight.

Temperatures aloft remain mild but do cool through the day, with 850mb temps falling from ~10C to ~7C this afternoon. Given significant cloud cover, its unlikely we mix much above 925mb, where temps hover around 12C, so highs will top out in the mid 60s to low 70s, warmest across eastern MA where showers are delayed the longest.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/

Low pressure moves northward from the mid-Atlantic coast to just south of southern New England overnight which will pivot a more robust precipitation shield towards the region after 03/04Z tonight.
As mentioned by the previous forecaster, the lack of baroclinicity this time of year introduces significant uncertainty regarding how far northward more stratiform precipitation can extend with low pressure centered south of the benchmark, but overnight guidance has trended, just slightly, towards a more northern and "wetter" solution, wetter in quotations as less than a half inch of rain is expected for far southern New England through the period.

Widespread shower activity will linger through at least the first half of Thursday before low pressure pulls seaward, which will allow PoPs to diminish through the afternoon. Concurrent with lessening shower chances, may see a few breaks of sunshine develop across the far interior by sunset.

With surface flow shifting to the E/ENE, onshore flow will impact highs, with mid to perhaps upper 60s expected across the interior and low 60s along the immediate eastern coastline. It will be a breezy day, with a 925mb jet of 35kt draped south of I-90, translating to gusts between 20-25kt along the south shore.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Highlights:

* Unsettled late-week into the weekend, with onshore flow favoring generally dry weather but with considerable cloudiness on most days. Better, although limited, chance for rain is around late Sunday but no significant rains or washouts are expected.

* Possible pattern change toward even milder weather around midweek?

Details:

00z suite of global ensembles still depict a generally unsettled weather pattern in this period, with two closed-off upper level lows moving through the mid-Atlc states, thus progged to be suppressed to our south. One of these features sags ESE Thursday night into Friday south of our waters, with another anticipated to pass to our south around Sunday night or into Monday. Related moisture tied to these disturbances will keep a generous amt of cloud cover around on most days; while we can't rule out a spot shower or two, the southward/suppressed tendency of these disturbances depicted in most of the ensembles should favor drier weather more often than not.
Onshore flow being produced by a surface ridge of high pressure nosing in from Nova Scotia would tend to favor cooler temps near the coast and several degrees warmer inland for late in the week through the weekend. There is more uncertainty in the pattern as we move into early to mid next week, with some solutions offering a warmup and less cloud cover, while the Canadian GEM indicating a continuation of unsettled conditions.

Thursday Night through Friday:

Coastal low pressure which is expected to bring showers to areas largely south of the Mass Pike on Thurs will continue to shift southward Thurs night into early Fri, with surface ridge of high pressure over Nova Scotia gradually taking hold. We should see decreasing rain chances into the evening and overnight hrs, with Fri trending drier but still with partly to mostly cloudy conditions and onshore breezes, with greater cloud cover south and east. Rain amts on Thurs night are light though. For temperatures, highs could struggle to reach the lower 60s near the coasts on Fri with the cooler onshore flow, but seem likely to reach into the lower to mid 70s further inland. Above-normal lows in the low to mid 50s for Thurs and Fri nights.

The Weekend into Monday:

Saturday is still looking cloudy but generally dry under continued surface ridge of high pressure, with cooler onshore breezes and similar high temps to those from Fri.

Next upper level low pressure tries to move in around later Sunday or into Mon. The Canadian GEM is the most bullish in bringing steady rains in, while the GFS keeps any rains to far southwestern areas, and the ECMWF is the driest and would favor dry weather for all of SNE. So still uncertainty in the specifics to work through; I opted to keep a slight to low chance mention of showers in the forecast for now. PoPs will need adjusting once there is better cross-model agreement. Kept highs in the 60s in all areas both days, again coolest near the coast.

As of now, Saturday looks to be the pick of the weekend but it still will feature a good amt of cloud cover.

Tuesday and Wednesday:

While the Canadian solution in this period maintains continued cloudy conditions with periodic showers, indications in the ECMWF and GFS solutions depict a potential warmup toward early-summerlike temps and less cloud cover. For now maintained NBM for this portion of the forecast given the disparity in outcomes, though with a little lean toward the GFS/ECMWF drier/warmer idea.



AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update...

Wednesday...Moderate Confidence.

Scattered showers this morning with the most widespread activity centered across Connecticut and western MA. A very isolated rumble of thunder may accompany showers. Some localized fog/IFR also possible this morning along the south coast and islands. A broken deck of VFR- MVFR ceilings are expected with the tendency for the lower conditions to be colocated with shower activity. S winds 5 to 10 knots...but localized sea breezes are possible during the afternoon along portions of the immediate coast.

Wednesday night...Moderate Confidence.

Light S-SE winds become east overnight. VFR/MVFR conditions become MVFR overnight, as more organized rain shield comes onshore to the south coast of CT/RI/MA generally after 04Z. Localized IFR/LIFR possible. Forecast uncertainty in how far north this rain shield tracks overnight.

Thursday... Moderate Confidence

Uncertainty surrounds precipitation shield on Thursday but expecting widespread shower activity through at least 12Z.
Showers possible all day but chances diminish through the afternoon.
Generally MVFR with pockets of IFR, improving to VFR late Thursday.
Breezy winds from the ENE/E gusting to 25kt along the south coast.

KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. Uncertainty regarding shower activity this morning and early afternoon but generally VFR.
Potential for an ESE sea breeze for a time this afternoon.
More widespread showers after 04Z Thursday as ENE flow develops.

KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR to MVFR today with shower activity possible at any time. More widespread rain moves into the terminal after 04Z tonight.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Friday: VFR. Breezy.

Friday Night: VFR.

Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

3 AM Update...

Wednesday...

Weak high pressure offshore results in light S-SE winds. Mainly dry weather and any morning fog burns off by midday with good vsby thereafter. Scattered showers across the southern waters.

Wednesday night...

Low pressure south of New England drifts north, with increasing east winds 15-20 kt toward Thu morning. Vsby lowers to 1-3 miles in areas of fog and rain, especially southern MA and RI waters.

Thursday...

E/ENE winds increase as low pressure tracks closer to SNE, gusts to 30kt possible. Areas of rough seas with increased rain chances.

Outlook /Thursday Night

Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Friday through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ232.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ235-237-254.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ255-256.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 2 mi55 min S 1.9G2.9 57°F 29.91
PDVR1 3 mi55 min SE 1G1.9 57°F 29.9054°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 7 mi70 min 0 57°F 29.9254°F
PRUR1 7 mi55 min 57°F 54°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 7 mi55 min 0G1 56°F 29.93
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 8 mi55 min SE 2.9G5.1 56°F 56°F29.92
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 11 mi55 min SSE 5.1G5.1 58°F 60°F29.91
PVDR1 15 mi55 min SSE 5.1G6 60°F 29.9257°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 16 mi55 min S 1G1 58°F 29.91
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 16 mi55 min SSE 4.1G5.1 60°F 57°F29.91
FRXM3 16 mi55 min 59°F 56°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 17 mi55 min 59°F 58°F29.93
44085 25 mi85 min 54°F 54°F2 ft
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 25 mi55 min S 6G6 55°F 29.93
NBGM3 28 mi55 min SSW 4.1G5.1 57°F 29.93
NLHC3 38 mi55 min 58°F 58°F29.89
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 39 mi40 min ESE 8G8.9 56°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 41 mi55 min 56°F 55°F29.92
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 46 mi59 min 51°F2 ft
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 46 mi55 min 55°F 53°F29.85


Wind History for Quonset Point, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KUUU NEWPORT STATE,RI 9 sm62 minSE 0510 smClear54°F52°F94%29.91
KPVD THEODORE FRANCIS GREEN STATE,RI 10 sm24 minS 0310 smMostly Cloudy59°F55°F88%29.92
KSFZ NORTH CENTRAL STATE,RI 24 sm59 mincalm10 smOvercast57°F57°F100%29.92
Link to 5 minute data for KOQU


Wind History from OQU
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Wickford, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island
   
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Wickford
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Wed -- 02:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:16 AM EDT     3.26 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 07:58 AM EDT     0.82 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:51 PM EDT     3.15 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:26 PM EDT     1.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Wickford, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, Tide feet
12
am
2.3
1
am
2.9
2
am
3.2
3
am
3.1
4
am
2.6
5
am
1.9
6
am
1.2
7
am
0.9
8
am
0.8
9
am
0.9
10
am
1
11
am
1.3
12
pm
1.8
1
pm
2.5
2
pm
3
3
pm
3.1
4
pm
2.9
5
pm
2.2
6
pm
1.6
7
pm
1.2
8
pm
1
9
pm
1
10
pm
1.1
11
pm
1.3


Tide / Current for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
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Wed -- 12:45 AM EDT     1.66 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 02:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:50 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:15 AM EDT     -2.04 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 09:34 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:11 PM EDT     2.11 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:32 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:55 PM EDT     -1.93 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:39 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current, knots
12
am
1.5
1
am
1.6
2
am
1
3
am
-0.2
4
am
-1.4
5
am
-2
6
am
-1.9
7
am
-1.4
8
am
-0.9
9
am
-0.3
10
am
0.3
11
am
1
12
pm
1.7
1
pm
2.1
2
pm
1.8
3
pm
0.8
4
pm
-0.7
5
pm
-1.7
6
pm
-1.9
7
pm
-1.7
8
pm
-1.3
9
pm
-0.9
10
pm
-0.4
11
pm
0.2


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GEOS Local Image of north east   
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Boston, MA,




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