Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
New Milford, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:24PM Friday December 13, 2019 3:24 AM EST (08:24 UTC) Moonrise 6:54PMMoonset 9:29AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1219 Am Est Fri Dec 13 2019
Overnight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of drizzle in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of snow and rain in the evening, then rain and snow likely after midnight.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain likely.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of rain in the evening.
ANZ300 1219 Am Est Fri Dec 13 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure continues to move father offshore overnight. Low pressure approaches from the south Friday and passes through on Saturday. High pressure builds in Sunday into Monday. Another storm then impacts the area for late Monday night into much of Tuesday. High pressure then builds in Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Milford, CT
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location: 41.58, -73.41     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 130612 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 112 AM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will shift east of the area tonight into Friday, with clouds increasing. A few light showers may begin on Friday, but most of the rain is expected Friday night into Saturday along with mild temperatures. A strong cold front will cross the region Saturday night into Sunday. It will turn colder and windy behind the front, with showers diminishing.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. As of 112 AM EST . Surface high pressure is located offshore eastern New England and will continue to depart off to the east through the rest of the overnight hours.

IR satellite imagery and surface observations continue to show plenty of high level clouds in place across eastern New York and western New England, with even more clouds streaming into the region within the broad southwest flow aloft. Although it continue to be dry through the remainder of the overnight hours, skies look to remain mostly cloudy to overcast for all areas.

Temperatures are variable across the region and this depends on how strong the wind is blowing. In sheltered areas where the wind is calm, temps have fallen into the teens to low 20s. Meanwhile, larger valleys (such as within the Capital Region) are seeing a fairly strong southerly wind, which is keeping temps elevated into the upper 20s to lower 30s. In these areas, temps will likely hold steady through the remainder of the overnight hours. The coldest spots (mainly across the Adirondacks and southern Greens) will be in the lower teens by daybreak.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/. Friday into Friday night, low-level jet forcing will increase ahead of a trough digging into the Southeast US. This will allow for an increase in deep-layer moisture, with PWAT values increasing to 0.75-1.00 inches by late Friday night. The increase in LLJ forcing and deep moisture will be gradual on Friday, so much of the day may end up being dry, especially from the Capital District north. There is some possibility of drizzle/freezing drizzle as forecast soundings show low-level saturation with dry air aloft, mainly at higher elevations. Will continue to monitor, but confidence is not high enough for a winter weather headline at this point. A persistent southerly flow will boost temperatures back near/slightly above normal despite the clouds.

Friday night, the low-level jet forcing will be maximized over the region, but the best moisture convergence/moisture plume will be pointed just to our east. Still, this will likely be the period where the steadiest rainfall will occur. We will also be favorably positioned under the equatorward entrance region of a strong upper jet. Temps will continue to rise overnight and should go above freezing everywhere. 925 mb winds go easterly around 25-35 kt, so gusty winds are expected over and just to the lee of the higher terrain of western New England and the Taconics.

On Saturday, the surface low will track directly through the forecast area from south to north. With the best moisture convergence tracking east of the area and models depicting a midlevel dry slot, we could see the precip become more showery or end for a time. Temps should be quite mild in the 40s to lower 50s. The low deepens quickly as it moves north of the area, likely around 975 mb around the Gaspe Peninsula by 12Z Sunday (a 24-drop of around 20 mb). Windy conditions will quickly develop over the local area on the southern periphery of the circulation, with cold advection changing rain showers to snow showers over the terrain. The snow could be rather persistent across the western Adirondacks with a combination of deformation and upslope forcing. Rain showers will diminish with time Saturday night into Sunday, ending first in the valleys.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. The storm will begin to lift northeastward into New England and eastern Canada during Sunday night. Moist, cyclonic northwesterly flow will remain in place, especially across the Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley, which will result in scattered snow showers (some lake-enhanced). Drier weather will reach the Capital District and points south and east.

Any lake-effect or lake-enhanced snow showers will gradually come to an end on Monday as upper-level ridging and surface high pressure builds overhead. Highs Monday will range from the low to mid-30s across the Hudson Valley and Litchfield Hills to the 20s elsewhere.

Dry weather will be short-lived as the next upper-level trough and surface low develops across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys later Monday through Tuesday. There remain small differences with the track of this system with the 12z GFS tracking the low to our north and west and the 12z ECMWF with a track to our south and east. A storm track north and west would likely result in precipitation starting as snow, then changing to sleet, freezing rain and, in some places, plain rain. A storm track to the south and east would bring mostly snow (with perhaps a wintry mix across the mid-Hudson Valley and Litchfield Hills). We will continue to run with a blended approach, with a south and east track the more likely solution at this time.

In the wake of this system, colder air returns ahead of another arctic front, set to sweep across the region later Wednesday into Thursday. A west to southwesterly flow ahead of this front will lead to the development of lake-effect snow showers and squalls, generally impacting the Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley. Some of these snow showers could reach parts of the Hudson Valley. Yet another system could move across the Great Lakes on Thursday with additional light snow. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will generally be in the 20s across the forecast area.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. High pressure at the surface will continue to gradually shift eastward off the New England coast through Friday. A coastal low will develop along the southeast coast Friday afternoon into the evening then track northward.

High level clouds will continue to stream across the region through the overnight. Clouds will lower during the day Friday with increasing chances for rain during the afternoon hours with a widespread rainfall expected to develop across the area during the evening. MVFR conditions due to ceilings are expected to develop mid morning into the early afternoon with IFR developing with the rain.

Enhanced southerly flow at KALB with a lighter southeasterly flow at KPSF overnight while winds are light/variable to calm at KPOU and KGFL. Overall flow is expected to be light from southeast-south shifting to the east through the afternoon into the evening Friday as the coastal low approaches.

Outlook .

Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy Likely SHRA. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SN. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SN.

HYDROLOGY. Dry weather will continue through tonight. The next storm system will be moving from the south for Friday into the weekend. Although some lighter showers are possible on Friday, they should be inconsequential. The steadiest rainfall looks to occur for late Friday night into Saturday morning. Rainfall will taper to showers and may change to snow showers for the high terrain for Saturday night into Sunday.

Total rainfall with this system appears to be about 0.75 to 1.25 inches, with some locally higher totals possible across the high terrain. This will allow rivers and streams to once again rise. Milder temperatures returning with the rainfall may allow for some additional runoff due to snow melt as well.

At this time, MMEFS suggest that most rivers should remain within their banks. There is a low probability of some flooding mainly in the western New England basins and along the Hoosic Saturday.

Behind this system, colder and drier weather will return for Monday. The next system could approach by Tuesday, but precipitation is mainly expected to be snow with that system.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. MA . None. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . Thompson NEAR TERM . Frugis SHORT TERM . Thompson LONG TERM . Rathbun AVIATION . IAA HYDROLOGY . Thompson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 31 mi55 min N 1.9 G 2.9 29°F 44°F1035.2 hPa
NPXN6 33 mi55 min SE 1.9 24°F 1037 hPa19°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 34 mi55 min NE 5.1 G 7 28°F 42°F1035.6 hPa
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 40 mi55 min ESE 1.9 27°F 1034 hPa16°F
TKPN6 41 mi55 min S 7 G 9.9 27°F 35°F1035.4 hPa17°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 44 mi40 min E 9.7 G 12 37°F 30°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Danbury, Danbury Municipal Airport, CT15 mi32 minN 010.00 miFair21°F18°F88%1035.5 hPa
Oxford, Waterbury-Oxford Airport, CT16 mi34 minE 510.00 miOvercast25°F19°F81%1036.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDXR

Wind History from DXR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4NW4Calm5NW5CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNE8NE8NE5N4N4N3Calm3CalmSW3SW5SW5SW4Calm3SW8W5W7W7W9W54NW7Calm
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Tide / Current Tables for Shelton, Housatonic River, Connecticut
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Shelton
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:57 AM EST     4.97 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:09 AM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:26 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:09 PM EST     5.72 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:23 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:53 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:46 PM EST     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.554.74321.10.40.20.51.93.655.75.54.83.72.51.30.4-0.2-0.30.52.1

Tide / Current Tables for New Hamburg, Hudson River, New York
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New Hamburg
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:29 AM EST     2.75 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:05 AM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:31 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 12:27 PM EST     3.43 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:25 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:55 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:54 PM EST     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.72.72.41.81.10.50-0.20.112.233.43.43.12.61.810.3-0.1-0.30.11.12

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.