Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for New Milford, CT

KEY MESSAGES
1) Gusty winds are expected behind a strong cold front across much of eastern New York and western New England for tonight through early tomorrow morning, which will result in some downed trees and power lines.

2) Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall could allow for low chances of minor flooding in urban and low lying areas, as well as along some rivers, across western New England into tonight.

3) As colder air returns to the region, temperatures will return back below freezing tomorrow morning. Northern and high terrain areas will see precipitation end as snow, especially in lake effect areas, resulting in some slippery conditions.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A strong storm system continues to move across the Great Lakes region into southern Canada for this evening into tonight. A very strong cold front is moving through western New York approaching eastern New York during the early evening hours moving eastward into western New England late tonight. Within breaks in the rainfall across these areas, as well as across the mountain peaks, some gusty south to southwest winds may reach 40-45 mph before the front moves through. After the front moves through, winds could gust tonight into tomorrow morning between 45 and 50 mph. This could result in some downed trees and power lines, so a Wind Advisory is in effect for much of eastern New York and western New England. The only exception for wind gusts between 30 and 40 mph is across the Mohawk Valley, southwestern Adirondacks, and Schoharie Valley.

Just ahead of the storm's cold front tonight, there will be a band of heavier showers and low chances for embedded thunder.
Based on latest surface observations, forecast model guidances, and supportive environment, the overall thunderstorm threat is low for portions of eastern New York. Confidence continues to increase for non-severe thunderstorms to develop this evening into the early hours tonight with gusty winds associated with them. A rogue wind gust could occur tonight with thunderstorms, but confidence is low.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Based on latest high resolution forecast model guidances, the heaviest rain showers look to be across southeastern areas such as the highest terrain of the eastern Catskills into the Litchfield Hills. While most areas will see around an inch of precip in total, the Catskills, Berkshires and Litchfield Hills could see 1 to 2 inches in total. The ground continues to saturated due to recent rainfall and snow melt, so there will be a lot of runoff. Some urban and poor drainage flooding is possible, especially this evening within the heavier bands of rainfall. Latest MMEFS suggest the probability of widespread river flooding is low at this time, so will continue to monitor, but the Flood Watch continues only for the Berkshires and Litchfield Hills. With a snowpack and some river ice still in place across the Adirondacks, very isolated issues are possible there as well, including for ice jams.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Temperatures plummet tonight behind the cold front from in the 50s and 60s into the 20s and 30s for tomorrow morning. Rain showers transition over to snow showers tonight after the front moves through. The highest accumulations are expected in the southern Adirondacks for tonight into tomorrow ranging between two to four inches. A mix of wintry precipitation is expected as the front goes through for north and west of Albany with rain transitioning over to sleet and snow with very limited accumulations due to gusty winds and warm pavement surfaces, outside of the Adirondacks. However, slick spots (patchy black ice) can develop tonight into tomorrow morning across the Adirondacks. Additionally, light snow due to lake effect is possible across the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley tomorrow into tomorrow night, with accumulations of an inch or two depending on where the band sets up and how far east it moves. Cold winter-like temperatures return for tomorrow into Wednesday with highs only the 20s and 30s and lows in the single digits for the higher terrain and in the teens to low 20s in valley locations.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 18z Tuesday...Patchy drizzle and IFR/MVFR cigs continue this afternoon at all terminals. The main area of steady rain remains south and west of the terminals but will continue tracking north and east arriving by 21-22 UTC. With an impressive 40-60kt jet at 2kft, LLWS will also continue at all terminals through 03 UTC. This will result in a period of widespread rainfall late this afternoon into this evening at all sites leading to IFR cigs/vis. Rain may be heavy at times leading to IFR vis. As mentioned in the previous discussion, thunder is possible but not enough confidence to include at this time. The bulk of the widespread steady rain exits from west to east by 02 - 03 UTC leading to improving vis for a short period before the main cold front arrives by 05 - 06 UTC. This will lead to a sharp wind shift to the west-northwest with winds becoming quite strong gusting to 30-40kts (strongest at ALB, PSF and POU). Behind the wind shift, a second period of precipitation arrives resulting in a brief period of rain quickly changing to sleet and snow. This will reduce vis and cigs down to IFR once again (best chance at ALB, PSF, and GFL)
before wintry precipitation ends by 09 UTC. Cigs/vis improve back to VFR after 09 UTC at all terminals but west-northwest winds remain gusty up to 30-35kts through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of RA
SN.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of RA
SN.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy
Chance of RA
SN.



ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for CTZ001-013.
Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for CTZ001-013.
NY...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ054-061-066.
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ032.
Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ041>043-048>053- 058>060-063>065-083-084.
MA...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for MAZ001-025.
Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for MAZ001-025.
VT...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for VTZ013>015.