Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Marlboro, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 627 AM EDT...IR satellite imagery shows completely clear skies over the region thanks to surface high pressure building into the area from the eastern Great Lakes. Winds have been calm and good radiational cooling has occurred overnight. As a result, some radiational fog developed in some sheltered valley areas in the Lake George and Glens Falls area, the Whitehall area of Washington County, as well as in parts of southern VT.
With sunrise now having occurred, this will dissipate shortly, but some locally reductions in visibility is possible over the next hour or so. Otherwise, it will be a chilly start to the day, with many areas beginning with a frosty morning.

The high pressure area will slowly track near or just south of the area through the day today. This will continue to keep skies fairly clear with light winds. With plenty of sunshine, temperatures will warm up quickly this morning. Based on model soundings and blended model guidance, highs should reach into the lower to middle 70s in valley areas by afternoon (60s for the high terrain). The air mass in place is rather dry, so dewpoints will remain fairly low, but the recent rainfall and light winds should keep any fire weather concerns low for today.

With high pressure still close to the area, fairly clear skies will continue into tonight with light to calm winds. Despite the good radiational cooling, temps won't be quite as cool as this morning thanks to warmer daytime temps, so lows will be in the 40s across the region.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Key Messages:

- Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms (15-29% chance)
late Tuesday into Tuesday evening for areas west and north of the Capital Region.

Discussion:

Our region will be within a mild southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front for Tuesday. Temps look to reach the middle to upper 70s for valley areas by Tuesday afternoon.
Dewpoints will be increasing through the day as well thanks to the moist southerly flow, with values reaching into the 50s by late in the day. After a mostly clear start to the day, some clouds will be increasing by the afternoon hours.

The latest model guidance suggests the approaching cold front will be west of the region and will be moving into western New York towards the evening hours. The best forcing will probably remain west of the area during the peak diurnal heating and the boundary looks to cross the area for Tuesday night. For late in the day and into the evening, instability will be building across western and central NY. There will be some limited instability in our area from the Hudson Valley on westward, but SBCAPE values will likely be 500 J/kg or less. Abundant 0-6 km deep layer shear of around 40 kts will be in place. CAMs suggest a broken QLCS line will develop well west of the area and could track towards the area, although the limited instability should have activity weaken as it gets closer to the area. Still, western areas could see a strong to severe storm before activity weakens and damaging winds would be the main threat, although the greatest risk is west of the region. Highest POPs across our area will be on Tuesday night, especially for northern and western areas. Once the front crosses by later in the overnight, temps will start to tumble as cooler and drier air works into the area. As a result, temps will be down into the 30s across the Adirondacks by daybreak Wednesday, although they will still be in the mid to upper 50s across southeastern areas, where the front will cross last.

Behind the front, drier and cooler weather is expected for Wednesday into Wednesday night. Northwest winds will be a little breezy on Wednesday with decreasing clouds and temps reaching into the 60s for most areas. Cool and dry weather is expected on Wednesday night with a partly cloudy sky and temps falling into the mid 30s to mid 40s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Unsettled weather returns to end the week as a pair of upper level shortwaves (one southern stream and one northern stream) cross the region. One surface low pressure system will cross the region Thursday night into Friday with another crossing Friday night into Saturday. Rain showers will accompany these low pressure systems with a rumble of thunder also possible on Friday. Latest NBM probabilities for 0.25 inches of rain or greater is between 60 and 80 percent with 0.50 inches or greater between 30 and 50 percent.
Friday looks to be the warmer day of the long term period with our region within the warm sector of the first low pressure system with highs in the 60s and 70s. Cooler weather returns Saturday in the wake of the first system's cold front with highs only in the 50s and 60s. The upper level pattern becomes more uncertain by the end of next weekend. While most areas likely trend drier Sunday, an isolated shower cannot be ruled out in spots. Highs Sunday remain in the 50s and 60s.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 12z/Tue...Any remaining fog will lift at KGFL early this morning; otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with high pressure overhead just bringing some passing high clouds at times. Wind will become variable at less than 10 kt through this afternoon then trend light out of the south or calm tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.