Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Popponesset Island, MA

KEY MESSAGES

- River and streams recede through Friday with dry weather and slowly moderating temperatures.

- Milder with scattered showers at times this weekend.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...River and streams recede through Friday with dry weather and slowly moderating temperatures.

Latest forecast shows the Taunton River at Bridgewater cresting just below its 8 foot flood stage through tonight, so the Flood Warning has been canceled. Along the mainstem Connecticut River, we expect to see slow rises with crests below flood stage Thursday or Friday.

Otherwise, high pressure will remain in control of our weather through Friday as it slowly heads offshore. This stretch of dry weather will allow river and stream levels to recede slowly for the next few days.

Despite high clouds tonight, very dry airmass in place along with light winds should allow for another cold night. The usual cold spots, including river valleys and even parts of the upper Cape and interior of Martha's Vineyard should see lows in teens tonight with 20s elsewhere.

This latest shot of cold air will gradually retreat, with highs getting back into the 40s Thursday and into the 50s Friday thanks to S/SW flow. We should see sea breezes both days as the pressure gradient remains weak, so coastal areas will remain a bit cooler since water temperatures are still in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Mild with scattered showers at times this weekend.

Zonal flow aloft this weekend gives way to broad trough developing over Northeast early next week as upper ridging builds over western third of country. This will bring a series of weak short waves through New England over weekend with two rounds of scattered showers, first being later Friday night into Saturday and the second in the Sunday-Monday timeframe. Not seeing any signals for heavy rainfall at this point and ensemble probabilities only have low chances (20-30%) of seeing more than 0.50".

Certainly looks mild over weekend with highs in 50s both days, perhaps a few locations touch 60 Sunday, then temperatures return closer to normal early next week with highs in 40s. Some of the guidance shows potential for some wet snow at tail end Sunday night as colder air arrives but even if it does occur it does not look to be impactful.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

00z TAF Update:

Tonight: High confidence.

Mainly VFR. SCT-BKN 040 decks move into BDL after 04z. The one area that could see SCT-BKN MVFR decks is across HYA and ACK after 08z with shallow marine moisture returning on SE flow.
That could lurk offshore of Boston Harbor but may not directly impact the terminal. SE to S winds under 10 kt.

Thursday: High confidence overall.

Mainly VFR, with any MVFR that developed off the eastern coast lifting to VFR bases. SE winds around 5-10 kt (potentially ESE at BOS), coming around to southerly late.

Thursday Night: High confidence.

VFR, though with lower-end VFR/borderline MVFR at BDL. S to SW winds 5-10 kt.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF, though moderate on wind directions Thurs. SE winds around 10 kt initially to turn south by 01z Thurs. Winds become SE again with high confidence Thurs but uncertain if they become 120-130 degrees or if they stay within the 150-160 degree range. Winds become S late in the day.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday: VFR.

Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. RA likely.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Slight chance RA.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA.

Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance RA, slight chance SN.

Monday: VFR. Breezy.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

High confidence through the end of the week.

SCAs remain posted on outer waters for slowly diminishing seas, which should fall below 5 ft offshore Thursday morning.
Otherwise high pressure remains in control of our weather through the end of the week with light S/SW winds and local sea breezes near shore.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain.

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain.

Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.