Mashpee Neck, MA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mashpee Neck, MA

June 14, 2024 5:38 PM EDT (21:38 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:04 AM   Sunset 8:18 PM
Moonrise 1:04 PM   Moonset 1:03 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ232 Nantucket Sound- 404 Pm Edt Fri Jun 14 2024

.small craft advisory in effect until 8 pm edt this evening - .

Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 3 seconds and se 1 foot at 7 seconds. A slight chance of tstms. A chance of showers this evening, then showers likely after midnight. Some tstms may produce gusty winds. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Sat - N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: nw 2 ft at 3 seconds and ne 2 ft at 7 seconds. A chance of showers in the morning.

Sat night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 8 seconds and nw 1 foot at 4 seconds.

Sun - N winds around 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: N 2 ft at 5 seconds and se 1 foot at 14 seconds.

Sun night through Mon night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 1 foot at 13 seconds.

Tue through Wed night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 1 foot at 12 seconds.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 404 Pm Edt Fri Jun 14 2024

Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - Cold front moves across the waters overnight. High pressure builds over new england Saturday and Sunday, and then moves offshore Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mashpee Neck, MA
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Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 141922 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 322 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

SYNOPSIS

Second round of strong to severe thunderstorms expected through early tonight ahead of a dry and pleasant Father's Day weekend.
Several days of excessive heat and humidity are likely starting Tuesday and lasting through next Friday.



NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/

First round of thunderstorms, of which strong to severe wind gusts and small hail to the Boston metro area has move seaward, though we are not yet out of the woods with a second round of potentially severe thunderstorms building later this afternoon and evening. At present, cells are beginning to develop across southern New York and southwestern Connecticut and western MA with an agitated cumulus field bubbling ahead of the advancing cold front over the Albany metro area. MLCAPE values of >1000J/km are currently associated with the area of storm development in southern New York, which is subsequently where the strongest updrafts are being observed at this time. CAMs have really struggled to accurately depict convection today, underestimating or misplacing the geographic coverage storms, thus, they provide limited utility in diagnosing the exact timing and coverage of storms this evening. With that said, most if not all of the HRRR members hint at the development of a strong line of storms after ~20Z.

SPC Mesoanalysis continues to depict a recovering environment behind the first line of convection where skies have begun to clear across western MA. MUCape Values are forecast to rebound to ~2000J/kg across part with mid level lapse rates rebounding to between 6-6.5C/km while low level lapse rates remain primed around 8C/km. DCAPE, which surged to between 800-900 ahead of this afternoon's convective line with good mixing, also look to increase this afternoon back to similar values, which will renew the damaging wind threat with any additional convection. Some small hail was also observed in mid day storms, but freezing levels to 12,000ft and meager MLLRs really put the damper on the severe hail potential, so we expect similar trends with any strong storms through this evening.

The eastward extend of the severe potential with a secondary linear convective line remains in question as it will again be a race against time/sunset as instability wanes around 00-01Z. So, ultimately, we expect another line of impactful convection to traverse across southern New England between ~21Z and 02Z tonight. Unfortunately clearing will take some time behind the cold frontal passage late this evening as trailing shortwave trough will provide enough forcing, combined with residual PWATs around 1.25", to renew shower chances from approximately the Worcester to Willimantic N-S line, east. Shortwave trough axis will not move seaward of the region until between 12-15Z Saturday, so shower activity may linger across the Cape and Islands through sunrise tomorrow morning. The good news is that with little instability overnight, the severe threat really drops off as cold front moves offshore, with perhaps a few lingering rumbles of thunder possible between 11pm and 2AM.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Departing cold front/deep digging shortwave will allow very, at least for June, dry air to filter into the region on NW/N flow tomorrow. PWATs are expected to drop to around 0.4" by 18/21Z Saturday, yielding a gorgeous, comfortable start to Father's day weekend. Little cloud cover is expected, with dewpoints dropping into the low and mid 40s by early evening. 850mb temperatures between 8-10C will support highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.

Radiational cooling will be in play Saturday night. With very dry airmass in place and mainly clear skies overhead, as well as slackening winds, it is quite possible that low temperatures drop into the low to mid 40s across northwestern MA by daybreak on Sunday. Urban heat islands, like Boston and Hartford, will remain our most mild localities, with lows around 60F expected.
Temperatures across the coastal plain will fall back into the 50s. This is our last shot of cool air for quite some time as mid level ridging starts to build in to end the weekend.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Key Point:

* Several days of dangerous heat/humidity Tue-Fri

Big story for next week continues to be likelihood of dangerous heat and humidity starting Tue and peaking Wed-Fri. Ensembles are in very good agreement on building strong upper ridge over eastern U.S.
through most of next week which lends increasing confidence. In fact, 500 mb heights nearing 600 dm is something rarely seen in the Northeast and is a very strong signal for record heat. This aligns with EPS and NAEFS Situational Awareness Tables which show several parameters outside of model climatology relating to temperature, signaling potential for a highly unusual event.

We're also seeing fairly high chances of afternoon highs well into 90s Tue-Fri, if not near 100 in some spots. More importantly, daytime heat indices may reach as high as 105 degrees and there will be little relief at night with nighttime heat indices in 70s.

Upper ridge also favors dry weather for much of next week, but it's possible we see widely scattered showers/storms, especially in Thu- Fri timeframe as cold front approaches from Great Lakes.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update: Moderate confidence (60%)

Main uncertainty is with timing of TS. First line moving through eastern MA at 17z will move offshore by 19-20z, then we are watching for a second line of TS to cross area between 20-24z ahead of cold front. Expect brief MVFR/IFR in any TS.

Otherwise VFR ceilings should prevail through tonight as SW winds veer to W-NW and N overnight, except ceilings to lower to IFR around Cape Cod and Islands. Slow improvement Sat morning with VFR-MVFR ceilings gradually scattering out Sat afternoon as N winds increase to 10-20kt with gusts to 25kt near coast.

KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF (60%). Best call on TS timing is now through 19z, then another possible round 22z-00z.

KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF (60%). Best call on TS timing is 21-23z.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday through Sunday Night: VFR.

Monday: VFR. Breezy.

Monday Night through Juneteenth: VFR.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight:

Steady light to moderate rain with embedded thunder possible.
Winds shift WNW and decrease to 5-10 knots overnight. Seas 2-3 feet.

Tomorrow:

Rain tapers off in the morning with clearing conditions in the afternoon. Winds turn north and gust 15 to 20mph. Seas 2-4 feet.

Tomorrow Night:

Clear conditions and generally light winds. Seas around 2-4 feet.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

Tuesday through Juneteenth: Winds less than 25 kt.

CLIMATE
Daily Record High Temperatures...

Tuesday, June 18th

BOS - 94F (1929)
BDL - 95F (1994)
PVD - 94F (1929)
ORH - 93F (1929)

Wednesday, June 19th

BOS - 96F (1923)
BDL - 95F (1995)
PVD - 94F (1923)
ORH - 93F (1923)

Thursday, June 20th

BOS - 98F (1953)
BDL - 97F (2012)
PVD - 95F (1941)
ORH - 93F (1953)

Last Day of 100F (or greater)

BOS - 100F (07/24/2022)
BDL - 100F (07/21/2019)
PVD - 100F (07/28/2020)
ORH - 102F (07/04/1911)

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230>237-251.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ250- 254.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 11 mi29 minSW 12G14 67°F 67°F29.8665°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 14 mi51 min 70°F 29.88
44090 17 mi39 min 60°F1 ft
NBGM3 25 mi51 minSW 14G17 70°F 29.87
CHTM3 27 mi51 min 72°F 29.88
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 29 mi51 minSSW 7G15 71°F 29.90
44085 35 mi39 min 65°F 62°F3 ft
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 35 mi39 minSSW 16G16 66°F 29.88
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 39 mi51 minSSW 6G8 72°F 29.86
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 39 mi51 min 74°F 29.87
FRXM3 40 mi51 min 74°F 66°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 44 mi59 min 60°F2 ft
PRUR1 46 mi51 min 67°F 66°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 48 mi54 minW 5.1 71°F 29.8665°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 48 mi51 minSSW 11G15 67°F 29.87
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 48 mi51 minSW 5.1G11 71°F 29.87
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 49 mi51 minSSE 15G16 69°F 29.85


Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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Wind History graph: FMH
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Tide / Current for Cotuit Highlands, Nantucket Sound, Massachusetts
   
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Cotuit Highlands
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Fri -- 12:22 AM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:19 AM EDT     First Quarter
Fri -- 05:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:04 AM EDT     2.31 feet High Tide
Fri -- 12:50 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:41 PM EDT     2.29 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Cotuit Highlands, Nantucket Sound, Massachusetts, Tide feet
12
am
0.5
1
am
0.6
2
am
0.8
3
am
1.1
4
am
1.5
5
am
1.9
6
am
2.2
7
am
2.3
8
am
2.2
9
am
1.9
10
am
1.4
11
am
0.9
12
pm
0.5
1
pm
0.4
2
pm
0.5
3
pm
0.8
4
pm
1.2
5
pm
1.6
6
pm
2
7
pm
2.2
8
pm
2.3
9
pm
2.1
10
pm
1.7
11
pm
1.2


Tide / Current for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
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Fri -- 12:41 AM EDT     3.37 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 01:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:19 AM EDT     First Quarter
Fri -- 04:01 AM EDT     -0.02 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:57 AM EDT     -3.89 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 10:08 AM EDT     0.02 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:18 PM EDT     3.66 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:50 PM EDT     -0.02 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:32 PM EDT     -3.67 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:40 PM EDT     0.16 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current, knots
12
am
3.3
1
am
3.4
2
am
3.1
3
am
2.4
4
am
0.4
5
am
-2.6
6
am
-3.6
7
am
-3.9
8
am
-3.6
9
am
-2.8
10
am
-1
11
am
2.4
12
pm
3.3
1
pm
3.6
2
pm
3.6
3
pm
3.2
4
pm
2.4
5
pm
-1.1
6
pm
-2.9
7
pm
-3.6
8
pm
-3.6
9
pm
-3.1
10
pm
-2
11
pm
1.4


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Boston, MA,




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