Friday, September20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mashpee Neck, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 6:44PM Friday September 20, 2019 12:20 PM EDT (16:20 UTC) Moonrise 10:26PMMoonset 12:32PM Illumination 60% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ232 Nantucket Sound- 1048 Am Edt Fri Sep 20 2019
This afternoon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Sat..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1048 Am Edt Fri Sep 20 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres builds slowly S of the waters through Sun. Meanwhile E swell from distant hurricane humberto will impact the waters into Sat. A cold front approaches the waters Mon night, sweeping across the waters early Tue. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mashpee Neck, MA
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location: 41.61, -70.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 201350
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
950 am edt Fri sep 20 2019

Synopsis
High pressure remains in control through this weekend with
summer-like temperatures returning. Sunday on into next week,
generally speaking warmer than average temperatures and drier
than average conditions. Our next best chance of rainfall for
the foreseeable future is around Monday night as a cold front
sweeps through the region.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
950 am update...

just a few high clouds spilling over the ridge, otherwise
lots of sunshine, light winds and warm temps this afternoon.

Highs should reach well into the 70s across much of sne.

Swell from humberto will also continue the threat for rough
surf and dangerous rip currents. With warming conditions, will
continue the high surf advisory through much of today along
ocean-exposed portions of the coast.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Saturday
Dry weather continues tonight into Saturday. A weak front pushes
through or dissipates across our region Saturday. There is only
enough moisture with this feature to generate a period of
clouds. The warmup will continue through this period. Above
normal temperatures expected. As a side-effect of the warmer
conditions and light winds, seabreezes develop Saturday, which
will make the coasts a bit cooler for a time.

While the swell from hurricane humberto will be subsiding, it
will not be entirely gone. Still an elevated risk for rip
currents Saturday. Will continue to evaluate the need for a high
surf advisory or rip current risk statement through today. If
going to the beach this weekend, be especially cautious if there
are no lifeguards present.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
* highlights...

- mild days, cool nights
- warmer than average temperatures, drier than average conditions
- best chance of rain for the foreseeable future around Monday night
* overview...

perhaps a cleansing rain around Monday night. Emphasized by a +wpo
+epo, when the N pacific mid-latitude pattern reloads does the pna
go largely negative with downsheared, deep troughing across the w
conus. Subsequent downshear ridging neighbored by an active tropics
courtesy of a phase 8 to 1 mjo do we see higher heights and warmer
than average temperatures. Its only when the mid-latitude pattern
releases that energy cascades downstream aided by a strong onshore n
pacific jet. An opportunity centered around early next week, could
see some much needed rain that'll hopefully wash the allergens out
of the air. Otherwise, as ensemble-mean total rainfall out through
360 hours emphasizes, we're trapped between cyclonic flow well N w
and the tropical-axis steering flow rounding persistent N atlantic
high pressure. Subsequent subsidence ridging that extends from the
se CONUS northeastward across our region towards nova scotia. The
latest drought monitor indicating spotty abnormally dry conditions
across the northeast, precipitation the last 14- and 30-days having
been only 50-percent of normal, any rainfall is welcoming.

Mild days and cool nights, overall above-average for late september
when highs are normally around 70 and lows around 50. How long this
pattern lasts is met with both uncertainty and concern. CPC day 6-10
and 8-14 day outlooks have been ratcheting up the confidence with
respect to warmer than average and drier than average conditions
across the E CONUS for late september into early october. Hit on the
more significant details below.

* discussion...

around Monday night...

widespread showers and appreciable rainfall possible. Latest suite
of forecast guidance advertising a mid-level closed-low solution. A
potential ribbon of deep-layer moisture with precipitable waters up
around 1.75-inches, the warm-cloud layer up to around 12 kft agl, a
promotion of a moist-adiabatic, conditionally-unstable environment
with marginal lapse rates and some weak elevated instability. This
combined with cyclonic flow, mid-level ascent, and diffluent motions
aloft, lift along an associated cold front with convergent low-level
winds, could see some decent rainfall, perhaps a rumble of thunder.

A lot will ride on the amplification of synoptics. Both the 20.0z
gfs and ec are in pretty good agreement of a neutral-tilt, closed
mid-level low sweeping across the region Tuesday transitioning to a
negative-tilt. Modest SW shear, it'll be interesting what upstream
outcomes manifest with daytime-heating and cloud cover. Indications
more robust thunderstorm activity could fire Monday across upstate
ny into W new england. If this activity could evolve further S into
pa with the parent mid-level vortmax that we'd have a better shot of
appreciable rainfall. Right now it looks as if N new england will
see more significant rainfall. Chance to likely pops. A mention of
thunder. And rainfall amounts upwards of around 0.25 inches. Still
some uncertainty on timing, hopefully nailed down along with more
specifics in the next day or two.

Aviation 14z Friday through Tuesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday ... High confidence.

Vfr. Winds turning light W (under 10 kts) today, continuing
tonight. A weak, dry front should push across our region
Saturday. Winds remain generally from the W to nw, except along
the coasts where seabreezes are expected to develop with the
light flow.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Saturday night through Tuesday ...

Saturday night:VFR.

Sunday through Sunday night:VFR. Breezy.

Monday through Monday night:VFR. Breezy. Chance shra.

Tuesday:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday ... High confidence.

Seas continue to build as swell form humberto impacts the coastal
waters today. This swell should subside some tonight into Saturday.

Winds generally remain less than 20 kt, but will be continuing
the small craft advisories due to rough seas across the outer
coastal waters.

Outlook Saturday night through Tuesday ... Moderate confidence.

Saturday night through Sunday: winds less than 25 kt.

Sunday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Monday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Monday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Tuesday: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of
rain showers.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... High surf advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for maz007-019-
020-022>024.

Ri... High surf advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for riz006>008.

Marine... Small craft advisory until noon edt Saturday for anz250-254-
255.

Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Saturday for anz251.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Saturday for anz256.

Synopsis... Belk sipprell
near term... Belk kjc
short term... Belk
long term... Sipprell
aviation... Belk sipprell
marine... Belk sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 5 mi96 min WSW 1.9 68°F 1022 hPa48°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 12 mi31 min W 9.7 G 9.7 65°F 67°F1 ft49°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 14 mi51 min 64°F 67°F1021.9 hPa
44090 17 mi21 min 64°F1 ft
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 29 mi51 min W 5.1 G 9.9 68°F 64°F1022 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 35 mi81 min WSW 11 G 12 61°F 1022.9 hPa (-1.0)
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 39 mi51 min SW 6 G 7 64°F 1022 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 39 mi51 min 66°F 67°F1022.2 hPa
FRXM3 40 mi51 min 66°F 50°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 44 mi31 min WSW 3.9 G 3.9 60°F 4 ft1021.6 hPa (-1.1)51°F
PRUR1 46 mi51 min 70°F 47°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 48 mi96 min W 1.9 68°F 1023 hPa49°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 48 mi51 min WSW 1 G 1.9 69°F 61°F1021.9 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 48 mi51 min SW 1 G 5.1 68°F 1022.5 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 49 mi51 min SE 2.9 G 5.1 63°F 67°F1021.8 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA6 mi36 minWNW 510.00 miFair72°F46°F41%1021.7 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA10 mi25 minW 710.00 miFair73°F48°F41%1021.1 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA17 mi28 minW 710.00 miFair71°F43°F36%1021.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFMH

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----NE11NE7NE9NE7NE7NE3NE3CalmNW3Calm------CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W4NW5
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2 days agoNE11NE11N15NE8NE8
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Tide / Current Tables for Cotuit Highlands, Nantucket Sound, Massachusetts
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Cotuit Highlands
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:10 AM EDT     2.34 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:45 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 12:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:24 PM EDT     2.52 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:18 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.511.41.82.22.32.21.81.30.80.40.30.611.51.92.32.52.52.11.610.50.2

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:04 AM EDT     -0.17 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:09 AM EDT     -4.04 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:02 AM EDT     0.18 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:58 AM EDT     3.81 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 12:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:18 PM EDT     -0.03 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:31 PM EDT     -4.03 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:24 PM EDT     0.18 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:25 PM EDT     3.87 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.52.60.7-2.5-3.6-4-3.8-2.9-0.52.73.53.83.52.81.4-2.1-3.3-3.9-4-3.3-1.82.13.33.8

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.