Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
West Falmouth, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 4:15PM Friday December 13, 2019 8:35 PM EST (01:35 UTC) Moonrise 6:42PMMoonset 9:18AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 716 Pm Est Fri Dec 13 2019
.gale warning in effect from 7 am est Saturday through Sunday evening...
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. Rain. Vsby 1 nm or less after midnight.
Sat..SE winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog. Rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sat night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of snow.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed and Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Pm Est Fri Dec 13 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Low pres from the gulf states will head northeast tonight, passing over new england on Sat, then over eastern quebec Sat night. Westerly gales blow across the waters Sun and Sun night. High pres builds briefly over the waters on Mon, then is followed by a storm system approaching from the southwest Mon night. This low will lift northeast over southern new england early Tue. Westerly gales possible Wed into Wed night. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Falmouth, MA
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location: 41.61, -70.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 140008 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 708 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

SYNOPSIS. Heavy rain overspreads southern New England later tonight into Saturday. There may be pockets of light freezing rain in interior high elevations late this afternoon into the evening, but will change to rain as warm air surges into the region overnight. A period of strong winds is also expected on Saturday afternoon across the Cape and Islands. Blustery conditions continue on Sunday. Seasonable temperatures on Monday before another system impacts the area on Monday night into Tuesday. It looks to begin as snow then mix with or change to rain near the coast. Mostly dry conditions return on Wednesday except for some snow showers in interior high elevations and the Cape. A reinforcing shot of cold air arrives late Wednesday, which will yield well below normal temperatures on Thursday and Friday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/.

* Slippery travel expected for the evening commute

* Heavy Rain will result in the potential for some river/stream flooding and some urban street flooding are possible, too

7 pm update .

The front end of the rain shield has overspread much of southern New England early this evening, save for the Cape and islands. We continue to see signals for heavy rainfall overnight and Saturday morning; have made only minor adjustments to the timing of the heaviest rain with this update. Temperatures continue to hover right at freezing in valley locations so some patchy light icing remains possible through the next few hours where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through 10 PM. In addition, a Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for coastal Rhode Island and southern Bristol county in MA for the Saturday morning high tide where some splashover or minor coastal flooding is possible.

Previous Discussion .

Temperatures lingered around freezing in the valleys of interior southern New England this afternoon. Thus the threat of freezing rain continues into this afternoon. Will continue the Winter Weather Advisory until all temperatures are above freezing.

Steadier rainfall will overspread southern New England tonight, with the heaviest rainfall across the eastern half of southern New England after midnight. Many signals for efficient rainfall process late tonight into Saturday. Most impressive is the depth of the warm rain processes, in excess of 10 kft for most locations. Moisture flux convergence at 850 mb is +6 standard deviations for mid December. Wind convergence and speeds are also +3 to +4 standard deviations. It will rain tonight. It is now just a question of how fast it will fall and where.

Majority of the synoptic dynamics favor a period of heavy rainfall across the eastern half of southern New England. Decent frontogenesis at the nose of a strong low level jet. Have some concerns for elevated convection, but not overly confident there will be enough instability to make it a reality. Would not be surprised for a few rumbles of thunder later tonight. Flood Watch will continue as posted.

Strong southerly winds will mean slowly rising temperatures through tonight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. * Period of southerly 40 to 55 mph wind gusts likely across the Cape/Islands on Saturday

Heavy rainfall should continue through much of Saturday morning. The big question will be how soon does this rainfall move offshore. Thinking a dry slot develops on the backside of a departing low pressure. This should bring rainfall to an end across the eastern half of southern New England during the afternoon hours. Some question above central and western MA, which will be closer to the core of a cold pool aloft. Thinking some showers will persist into the afternoon there, but will not be nearly as heavy.

Impressive low level jet at 925 mb, but stuck above a shallow but strong inversion. Not expecting mechanical mixing to be a huge factor in bringing these speeds to the surface. That pretty much just leaves precipitation drag, particularly if convection develops. Wind Advisory will continue for the Cape and islands.

A 1 to 2 foot storm surge appears reasonable along the south coast during the Saturday morning high tide. This may result in some pockets of splashover/minor coastal flooding. However, do not expect winds or storm surge to result in anything too significant.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Highlights .

* Sunday will be blustery with some snow showers in the interior higher elevations and rain showers elsewhere. Also have to watch pockets of minor flooding as area rivers crest from the rainfall and snowmelt runoff.

* Seasonably cold on Monday before the next system arrives late Monday, likely starting as snow before mixing with or changing to rain. Confidence is growing with an impactful storm but precipitation types remain uncertain due to spread in model guidance.

* Unseasonably cold but dry from Wednesday through Friday.

Details .

Sunday .

** Strong winds and pockets of minor river flooding on Sunday **

Low pressure will shift northeast into Maine and the Maritimes by Sunday morning, though there may be scattered showers on Sunday morning. There could be some snow showers in the East Slopes of the Berkshires and the Northern Worcester Hills Sunday morning into early afternoon but any accumulations would be very light. The main concern on Sunday, however, is the wind. In wake of the departing low, west winds increase, possibly gusting up to 25 kts in the interior higher elevations and up to 40 kts over the waters. This is supported by Bufkit soundings show a momentum transfer of 35 kts at the bottom of the boundary layer and 48 kts at the top of the boundary layer in Boston early Sunday afternoon. As a result, there are Gale Warnings for all waters on Sunday.

An issue of concern for Sunday is the potential for localized flooding as local rivers crest. NOHRSC is forecasting up to 2 inches of snowmelt in the East Slopes of the Berkshires and along the CT River valley in MA by early Sunday morning. So the combination of snowmelt runoff and heavy rain that fell on Saturday may result in pockets of minor river flooding as river levels crest.

Next Monday through Tuesday .

** Potential for snow mixing with/changing to rain on Tuesday but low confidence given the spread of model guidance**

Another cold front will sweep across the region by Monday morning, bringing gusty northwest winds and colder air across the region. Expect highs on Monday to be in the 30s and 40s. Another low pressure system looks to impact the area by early Tuesday. GEFS Ensemble shows PWATs 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal and even 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal for parts of Eastern MA coast. With the cold air in place, it should start off as snow before changing to mixed precipitation or rain away from the interior. However, if the low pressure tracks near the 70W/40N benchmark, it is not out of the question this could remain mostly snow and bring impactful snowfall to the I-95 corridor. But since we are still 4 days away and given the spread of model guidance, confidence is low and all solutions remain on the table. The precipitation comes to an end late Tuesday night.

Next Wednesday through Friday .

** Below average temperatures Thursday and Friday **

Other than some scattered snow showers in the East Slopes of the Berkshires and some ocean-effect snow showers on the Cape, Wednesday looks dry but with below average high temperatures in the 20s in the interior and 30s near the coast. Northwest winds could gust up to 20 kts in the interior and 30 kts near the coast on Wednesday afternoon. A deep 500 mb trough then builds into the region late Wednesday night into early Thursday so Thursday and Friday look to be even colder with sub-freezing highs possible for all locations. There may be some snow showers associated with a reinforcing shot of cold air late Wednesday into early Thursday but confidence is really low this far out. High temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below average for mid December. This is consistent with the CPC's 6-10 days outlook, with a 60 to 70 percent probability of below normal temperatures, but also a 40 to 50 percent probability of below normal precipitation. Overnight lows could drop into the single digits in the interior high elevations and teens elsewhere. With persistent northwest winds, it will feel 5 to 10 degrees colder. A clipper system may skirt northwest MA late Thursday but confidence is extremely low a week out.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

00Z update .

Short Term /through Saturday Night/ . High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in timing.

Tonight and Saturday . Conditions are mostly IFR in central MA/CT terminals, with VFR/MVFR to the east. Conditions will be deteriorating through the night to IFR/LIFR thresholds everywhere and persist into at least the first half of Saturday. Heavy rainfall late tonight into Saturday morning, and can not rule out an isolated thunderstorm or two. A period of southerly wind gusts of 35 to 45 knots develops Saturday across the Cape/Islands. Some gusty southerly winds are possible along the coastal plain, too. Elsewhere a fairly strong inversion will keep strong winds aloft. However, LLWS will be a concern.

Saturday night . CIGs lifting through the night to VFR by Sunday morning. SW winds gusting 20-30 kts, highest along the south coast.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in timing.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in timing.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/ .

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt.

Sunday Night: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt.

Monday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SN.

Monday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. SN likely, RA likely, PL likely, FZRA likely, patchy BR.

Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance RA, chance SN, FZRA likely, patchy FG.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Patchy BR.

Wednesday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

MARINE. Short Term /through Saturday Night/ . High confidence.

Increasing LLJ will result in SW winds of 25 to 30 knots developing tonight. On Saturday, a potent 80 knot LLJ at 925 mb will result in a period of southerly wind gusts between 35 and 45 knots on most open waters, so Gale Warnings are posted. Despite the inversion, given the magnitude of the LLJ, expect some Gale Force gusts to mix down especially if any embedded convection develops. Seas build to between 7 and 13 feet across our open waters.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/ .

Sunday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 15 ft.

Sunday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain, slight chance of snow.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Rain likely, snow likely, patchy fog. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain, patchy fog.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Slight chance of snow. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

HYDROLOGY. Thinking there is an elevated risk for flooding issues late tonight into Saturday due to a combination of excessive rainfall and snowmelt. Will need to consider River Flood Watches for some locations, particularly across RI southeast MA where the heaviest rainfall is expected. Poor drainage and urban flooding will also be a concern. This includes locations trying to drain in the ocean, which will be a bit higher due to the proximity to the last full moon as well as from surge.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for CTZ002. MA . Flood Watch from 1 AM EST Saturday through late Saturday night for MAZ004>007-012>024-026. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for MAZ002>004-008>011-026. Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 4 PM EST Saturday for MAZ022>024. RI . Flood Watch from 1 AM EST Saturday through late Saturday night for RIZ001>008. MARINE . Gale Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ231>235-250-251-254>256. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ230-236. Gale Warning from 7 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ237.

SYNOPSIS . Belk/Chai NEAR TERM . Belk/BL/BW SHORT TERM . Belk/BL LONG TERM . Chai AVIATION . Belk/BL/BW/Chai MARINE . Belk/BL/Chai HYDROLOGY .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 6 mi54 min 47°F 42°F1023.8 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 11 mi51 min E 5.1 60°F 1024 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 22 mi36 min ESE 16 G 18 48°F 1023 hPa (-3.1)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 24 mi54 min 45°F 43°F1024.1 hPa
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 25 mi56 min 42°F2 ft
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 25 mi48 min E 8 G 9.9 46°F 1023.7 hPa
FRXM3 25 mi54 min 46°F 44°F
44090 26 mi36 min 44°F1 ft
PRUR1 31 mi48 min 47°F 46°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 33 mi51 min N 1.9 41°F 1024 hPa41°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 33 mi54 min E 7 G 9.9 48°F 40°F1023.2 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 33 mi48 min N 1.9 G 2.9 42°F 1024.1 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 36 mi54 min N 6 G 8 42°F 42°F1023.8 hPa
PVDR1 37 mi54 min N 5.1 G 7 41°F 1024.2 hPa41°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 39 mi54 min ENE 5.1 G 7 41°F 41°F1024.1 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 40 mi48 min ESE 13 G 22 49°F 42°F1023.8 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 49 mi36 min 51°F7 ft

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA11 mi51 minESE 13 G 2110.00 miOvercast46°F46°F100%1024 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA14 mi43 minESE 810.00 miOvercast47°F45°F93%1023.6 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA15 mi43 minESE 108.00 miOvercast48°F46°F93%1023.2 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA21 mi44 minESE 58.00 miLight Rain43°F42°F97%1024.3 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA24 mi40 minESE 710.00 miLight Rain49°F45°F86%1023.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFMH

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmSE6S7S9SE11SE9SE13S7SE6SE6SE6SE6SE7SE9SE13
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Tide / Current Tables for West Falmouth Harbor, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts
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West Falmouth Harbor
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:34 AM EST     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:17 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 08:36 AM EST     4.92 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:20 PM EST     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:12 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:42 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:00 PM EST     3.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.3-0.4-0.40.10.91.934.14.84.94.12.81.30.1-0.4-0.30.211.92.83.643.62.6

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:46 AM EST     -4.41 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 03:45 AM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:41 AM EST     4.21 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:17 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:57 AM EST     -0.07 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:02 PM EST     -4.70 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:06 PM EST     0.19 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:12 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:41 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:11 PM EST     4.50 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 10:40 PM EST     -0.03 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-4.2-4.4-3.9-2.71.53.34.14.23.82.8-0.6-3.2-4.3-4.7-4.4-3.4-1.134.14.54.33.72.5-1.8

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.