Monday, July22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
West Falmouth, MA

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Sunrise 5:26AMSunset 8:13PM Monday July 22, 2019 7:09 PM EDT (23:09 UTC) Moonrise 11:26PMMoonset 10:45AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 336 Pm Edt Mon Jul 22 2019
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog. Showers. A chance of tstms this evening, then a slight chance of tstms after midnight. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..N winds around 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Showers with tstms likely. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming E around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming W around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..N winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 336 Pm Edt Mon Jul 22 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A stationary front will remain near or just south of the southern waters tonight. Areas of low pres will move along this boundary tonight and Tue, bringing showers and scattered Thunderstorms, some with gusty winds and tropical downpours. Dry and more seasonable conditions return Wed through Fri as high pres builds across the waters. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Falmouth, MA
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location: 41.61, -70.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 222300
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
700 pm edt Mon jul 22 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure will track along a frontal boundary draped across ct,
ri and southeast ma tonight and will be accompanied by scattered
showers and thunderstorms with heavy downpours possible. The front
slides along or just offshore Tuesday with showers then focused
across southern ri and southeast ma. The low and frontal boundary
will move offshore Wednesday morning, followed by a stretch of dry,
seasonable weather along with comfortable humidity arriving
Wednesday afternoon and lingering through the weekend with
temperatures gradually warming through the period.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
*** severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 10 pm ***
7 pm update ...

warm front draped across long island to just south of bid-mvy-
ack. How far north this warm sector tracks will dictate area of
potential strong storms. Greatest risk for rotating storms will
be along and south of this boundary. SPC mesoanalysis has true
warm sector airmass denoted by 0-3 km CAPE with its axis across
long island at 630 pm. The rap model advects this warm sector
airmass across south coastal ma ri including CAPE cod and the
islands later this evening. However outflow from convection may
drive warm sector farther south. If this occurs threat of severe
weather will remain farther south southwest. Thus lots of
uncertainty.

Nevertheless severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until
10 pm. Main threat will be along the south coast of ma ri for
strong to damaging winds with these storms along with torrential
downpours and localized flooding with pwats near 2 inches and
dew pts into the low and mid 70s in the warm sector.

Elsewhere lighter much appreciable rainfall tonight. Expecting a
bit of a lull in the rain second half of the night with next
round of rain Tuesday morning into midday with trailing short
wave and secondary wave of low pressure tracking along or just
offshore. Heaviest rain will be confined to southern ri ma and
possible just the immediate south coast per hi res guidance.

Earlier discussion below.

=================================================================
scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms continue across
southern new england early this afternoon. At the synoptic level we
have a shortwave approaching in the mid levels generating a frontal
wave to our southwest that will track northeast and bring strong to
severe storms this afternoon and evening. Surface observations show
the front over southern ct with an impressive convergence boundary
in southeast ny southwest ct firing off severe storms to our west.

This is the location of the best low level turning in the atmosphere
together with ample instability. As southern zones warm sector with
the advancing warm front dewpoints in the upper 60s will increase to
the low 70s, and MUCAPE increases on the order of 1000-2000 j kg.

Though mid level lapse rates are poor, shear values are quite good,
which should allow for prolonged updrafts and organized, rotating
storms. 0-6km bulk shear values will reach 40-50kts. Good low level
rotation will increase tornado potential as well; 0-1km shear of 25-
35kts and 0-1km SRH approaching 150. The area of strongest updraft
helicity (a good proxy for severe storm potential) continues to hit
on southwest ct reaching into northern ct and ri. A severe
thunderstorm watch has been issued for all of ct and ri through 10
pm. The main threat will be from damaging winds with the potential
for an isolated tornado.

Additionally these storms will come with some locally heavy
downpours which could cause some urban and small stream flooding.

Anomalous pwats approach 2.25" with plenty of lift ahead of the
shortwave with placement under the entrance region of a 110kt 300mb
jet. Heavy rain is possible through the overnight hours, especially
over ct and western-central ma. A bit of a break comes after
midnight before our next round arrives early Tuesday.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
The trough axis remains to the west on Tuesday with another frontal
wave moving up the coast bringing additional heavy rainfall. This
time the axis of greatest pwats shifts southeast as the best lift
from low level convergence and favorable upper jet dynamics aligns
to bring the heaviest rainfall to ri and southeast ma. Another 1-2"
is possible with locally higher amounts up to 3" leading to the risk
of urban and poor drainage flooding. A 35-45kt LLJ moves over
southern ri and southeast ma which could mix down gusty winds in
heavy downpours as well, while retreating instability should keep
the threat of thunderstorms to the south coast. The low lifts out of
the area bringing rain to an end from west to east Tuesday evening
into early overnight. Tuesday night should be mostly dry, but a
third and final low crosses further to our southeast keeping a
chance for some rain showers in the forecast for the south
coast CAPE cod islands.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
Highlights ...

* dry stretch of weather Wed afternoon into the weekend
* seasonable temperatures and comfortable humidity Wed & thu
* gradually becoming warmer and more humid Fri Sat Sun mon
long wave trough and attending weak surface low south of long island
12z Wed advects eastward giving way to a drying trend Wed afternoon.

Temps warm into the low 80s Wed afternoon but maybe only into the
70s eastern ma given later departure time of rain and cloud shield.

Then a beautiful stretch of dry weather and comfortable humidity thu
and Fri as upper trough lifts exits to the northeast and is replaced
by rising heights and anticyclonic mid level flow. As 1026 mb high
builds from the oh valley into new england expect warm days and
comfortable nights with dew pts in the 50s. Weak pressure gradient
will support afternoon seabreezes each day.

High pressure remains anchored over southern new england Fri and sat
but strong july Sun will gradually warm airmass with humidity
remaining tolerable. By Sunday and Monday high moves offshore and
return flow will yield increasing humidity, although typical for
late july with dew pts in the 60s.

Ensembles suggest mean trough sets up over the great lakes Sunday
into early next week with subtropical ridge offshore. This will
likely support dry weather here in southern new england with frontal
boundaries remaining northwest of new england or fronts dissipating
eastward into new england. Thus seasonably warm and humid Sunday
into early next week at least by late july standards.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday night ... Moderate to high
confidence.

23z update ...

only change is strongest storms appear to track across south
coastal ma ri this evening. Weaker storms northward. Torrential
downpours possible especially with stronger storms across
southern ri ma. Earlier discussion below.

==============================================================
this afternoon... Mostly cloudy at most TAF sites withVFR
conditions early, but bases lower by mid afternoon. Showers
with isolated thunderstorms continue through the afternoon into
the evening. Areas of MVFR- ifr conditions in any convection.

Potential for strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall in any
thunderstorms, mainly across N ct into ri. Light e-ne winds,
with SE along the S coast during the afternoon.

Tonight... Showers and thunderstorms linger into early tonight
with areas of MVFR-ifr conditions. Showers linger through the
night across central and southern areas, but conditions may
improve to locallyVFR after 06z across N central and W mass but
could still see scattered showers. Light s-sw winds becoming n
after midnight.

Tuesday... Showers remain across the region, with isolated
thunderstorms possibly along the south coast through midday.

Could see heavy downpours as well. Conditions slowly improve
across the N central and western mass during the afternoon.

Tuesday night: mainlyVFR, with areas ifr possible. Slight
chance shra, patchy br.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Wednesday through Saturday ... High confidence.

Vfr.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday night ... High confidence.

7 pm update ...

strongest thunderstorms this evening appear to track across the
ri and southern ma waters. Storms move east and offshore after
midnight. Earlier discussion below.

================================================================
today... Showers and isolated thunderstorms move in through the
evening. Visibility restrictions in patchy fog and heavy showers.

Seas 3 ft or less.

Tonight... Winds become SW up to 15-20 kt this evening on the
southern waters, but remain e-ne on the eastern waters early.

Seas build up to 5 ft on the outer waters as well as bi and ri
sounds, so small crafts continue. Expect visibility
restrictions in patchy fog and locally heavy downpours. Showers
through the night, but any thunderstorms should end from n-s
during the night, though may linger on the southern waters.

Tuesday... Expect n-ne winds up to around 10 kt. Seas remain up
to 5-6 ft on the southern waters through the day. Visibility
restrictions continue in showers and patchy fog, with local
thunderstorms during the morning along with locally heavy
downpours.

Outlook Wednesday through Saturday ... High confidence.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Wednesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally
approaching 5 ft.

Thursday through Saturday: winds less than 25 kt.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 8 am Tuesday to 2 am edt Wednesday
for anz235-237.

Small craft advisory from 2 am Tuesday to 2 am edt Wednesday
for anz250-254.

Small craft advisory from 11 pm this evening to 8 am edt
Wednesday for anz255-256.

Synopsis... Nocera bw
near term... Nocera bw
short term... Bw
long term... Nocera
aviation... Nocera bw
marine... Nocera bw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 6 mi58 min 76°F 74°F1008.9 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 11 mi85 min W 2.9 77°F 1009 hPa74°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 24 mi58 min 82°F 80°F1009.2 hPa
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 25 mi90 min 77°F1 ft
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 25 mi52 min NNE 14 G 16 79°F 1008.6 hPa
FRXM3 25 mi58 min 78°F 69°F
44090 26 mi40 min 74°F2 ft
PRUR1 31 mi58 min 78°F 69°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 33 mi85 min ENE 8.9 80°F 1009 hPa71°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 33 mi58 min ENE 6 G 11 78°F 69°F1008.5 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 33 mi52 min ENE 7 G 11 78°F 1009.1 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 34 mi52 min NE 12 G 15 77°F 79°F1008.7 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 36 mi58 min NE 12 G 14 1008.8 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 39 mi52 min ENE 6 G 8.9 76°F 73°F1008.5 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 49 mi40 min 73°F2 ft

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA11 mi15 minNNE 810.00 miOvercast75°F71°F89%1009.1 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA14 mi17 minNE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F69°F79%1008.2 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA15 mi17 minE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F70°F88%1008.5 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA21 mi18 minNE 910.00 miOvercast72°F69°F91%1009 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA24 mi14 minENE 410.00 miOvercast76°F70°F82%1008.6 hPa

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for West Falmouth Harbor, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts
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West Falmouth Harbor
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Mon -- 12:15 AM EDT     3.96 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:33 AM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:46 PM EDT     3.87 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:51 PM EDT     0.86 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.93.83.12.11.10.60.50.91.41.92.53.23.73.93.42.61.710.91.11.522.53

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:39 AM EDT     -0.18 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:42 AM EDT     -4.27 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:46 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:48 AM EDT     4.00 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 02:23 PM EDT     -0.18 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:10 PM EDT     -3.97 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:07 PM EDT     0.02 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:01 PM EDT     3.72 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.22.1-1.6-3.3-4.1-4.2-3.7-2.61.43.13.843.731.7-2.2-3.5-4-3.7-2.9-0.92.53.43.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.