Monday, October21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
West Falmouth, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 5:55PM Monday October 21, 2019 4:22 AM EDT (08:22 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 2:19PM Illumination 48% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 405 Am Edt Mon Oct 21 2019
Today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas around 3 ft.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely. Patchy fog after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft, building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..W winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 405 Am Edt Mon Oct 21 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Low pressure south of the 40n/70w benchmark early this morning will move southeast out to sea. Meanwhile high pressure over southern quebec builds southward into new england this afternoon adn tonight. A cold front will then pass through Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing southerly winds which will switch to the west along with a chance of rain. High pressure and dry weather follow for the rest of the week. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Falmouth, MA
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location: 41.61, -70.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 210800
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
400 am edt Mon oct 21 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure well south of new england and its rain shield will
impact CAPE cod and the islands early this morning. As the low
continues to move seaward, rain will exit and clouds will give
way to increasing sunshine later this morning into the
afternoon. However, some cloudiness may linger over CAPE cod and
the islands. Dry weather tonight lingers into Tuesday morning.

Spotty light showers develop Tue afternoon, becoming widespread
tue night ahead of an approaching cold front. Behind the front,
dry and seasonably mild conditions follow Wednesday afternoon
into Friday. Another cold front may bring a few showers Friday
afternoon and night. High pressure builds in for most of next
weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
340 am update...

back edge of rain shield associated with offshore low now moving
across coastal ri into buzzards bay and eastward to CAPE cod and the
islands at 330 am. Back edge of cloud shield over central ma ct and
moving steadily eastward. Where skies have cleared over eastern ny
into berkshire county ma, light winds and dew pts in the 40s has
resulted in patchy dense fog. Thus as the cloud shield advances east
and skies clear expected areas of fog to develop before sunrise
across central ct ma which includes the hartford area and the city
of springfield. This may have some impact on the morning commute
depending how quickly skies clear. Also there could be enough blyr
mixing via light north winds to preclude fog from becoming too
widespread or dense. Something we will watch closely over the next
few hours.

As ocean storm departs short wave ridging develops across the area
with rain ending and clouds eroding moving offshore. Thus increasing
sunshine later this morning into the afternoon from west to east.

Low level northeast flow may result in clouds lingering longer over
southeast especially CAPE cod and the islands. Airmass relatively
mild with 925 mb temps around +9c by this afternoon. Model soundings
show mixing beyond 925 mb so expecting highs 60-65 this afternoon,
perhaps only upper 50s CAPE cod and islands if clouds linger along
with cool northeast winds.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
340 am update...

tonight ...

dry weather with short wave ridge over the area along with surface
ridge from quebec into southern new england. This will provide
mostly clear conditions, light winds and with dew pts in the upper
30s to mid 40s expect radiational fog to develop.

Tuesday ...

any possible breaks of sunshine early will quickly give way to
overcast conditions as return flow and associated SE low level jet
increase. Spotty light rain drizzle may develop in the afternoon
with this increasing moist low level flow. Not a washout but could
get damp in the afternoon and especially late in the day. Cloud
cover and increasing onshore winds will limit highs to the mid and
upper 50s.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
Highlights...

* area of showers push across Tuesday night into early
Wednesday
* improving conditions and blustery winds Wednesday afternoon
* dry and mild Thursday Thursday night
* another front brings scattered showers Friday afternoon into
early Saturday
* dry later Sat into Sunday morning, then another round of
showers possible
details...

Tuesday night through Wednesday...

cutoff h5 low pres over S ontario and the western great lakes
tue evening lifts n-ne to hudson bay wed. The steering flow
beneath the lifting low at the surface and aloft shifts from s
to W during wed. This should allow the surface front to shift e
late Tue night and wed.

00z models also signaling a shift of the deep layer moisture
further E than previous model guidance with the increasing and
shifting deep layer wind flow. Models also showing the remnants
of nestor well SE of nantucket by 00z wed. This position, along
with an h5 short wave wrapping N across N mass into northern new
england, will push the offshore moisture across mass bay then
the western edge clips E mass early Tue night before shifting
into E nh maine. 00z GFS also showing the pwat moisture plume
(up to 2-3 sd above normal, or about 1.5 to 1.7 inches) moving
quickly up the eastern seaboard by 00z Wed to near or E of cape
cod and SE coastal mass before shifting to the gulf of maine by
around 06z.

As the front crosses the region, the last of the showers push
offshore by midday wed. Winds shift to W and become gusty,
upwards to around 20 kt during the afternoon. Clouds give way to
mostly sunny conditions Wed afternoon. Will see temps top off
in the mid- upper 50s across the higher inland terrain, ranging
to the lower-mid 60s across the coastal plain and the lower to
mid ct valley.

Thursday through Sunday...

mid level steering flow remains rather fast, though noting
another digging h5 trough around Thursday, but will keep weather
systems steadily moving across the northeast. Will see dry
conditions and seasonably mild temperatures Thursday into early
Friday as high pressure ridge builds across. Fast moving short
wave and surface front.

The high flattens out as the center shifts off the mid atlc
coast Thu night Friday morning. Winds shift to s-sw, which will
allow moisture to work up the eastern seaboard as another cold
front approaches late Fri into sat. Have chc pops across the
region, which should push offshore during Fri morning. Dry
conditions forecast for late Saturday into Sunday.

Noting widening model solution spread late Sunday into Monday,
with dry conditions offered by the gfs, while another short wave
moves across the ohio valley toward the region around the
Monday timeframe. Low forecast confidence. For now, have carried
chc pops from around mid Sunday through the remainder of the
day.

Aviation 08z Monday through Friday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ...

06z update...

thru 12z... High confidence on trends, lower on exact
timing details
vfr for most of the region with light rain over ri and
southeast ma continuing to move east and should exit CAPE cod
and the islands by 09z-12z. MVFR conditions will impact the
south coast of ma ri including CAPE cod and the islands. Other
area of concern is western ma ct when skies clear patchy dense
ground fog is possible including bdl baf. Light winds.

After 12z... High confidence.

MVFR CIGS may linger over CAPE cod and islands into the
afternoon. Otherwise any patchy ifr MVFR dense fog western ma ct
lifts toVFR quickly.VFR elsewhere as well. Light NE winds,
bit higher CAPE cod and islands.

Tonight... Moderate confidence, some uncertainty regarding areal
coverage of MVFR late.

Vfr to start and dry. However MVFR CIGS may come onshore late
and overspread much of the region.

Tuesday... High confidence on trends, lower on exact
timing details
vfr MVFR then trending ifr MVFR in areas of low clouds and
drizzle in the afternoon and especially toward evening.

Kbos terminal...

high confidence in TAF trends.

Kbdl terminal...

high confidence in TAF trends.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday ... Moderate confidence.

Tuesday night: mainly ifr, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Ra
likely, chance shra, patchy br.

Wednesday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance shra.

Wednesday night:VFR. Breezy.

Thursday through Thursday night:VFR.

Friday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance shra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ...

340 am update...

today ...

weak low pressure south of 40n 70w will provide NE winds 15-20
kt over the waters south of the islands this morning, possibly
gusting up to 25 kt. Given the long fetch seas will increase 4
to 7 ft. Less wind and waves northward. Light rain before over
the southern waters exits offshore by or shortly after daybreak.

Northeast winds decrease this afternoon.

Tonight ...

east swells as wind diminishes with high pres from quebec
building into new england. Dry weather and good vsby.

Tuesday ...

high pres moves into the maritimes with ese winds strengthening
across new england. Vsby lowers in developing areas of
drizzle rain.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday ... Moderate confidence.

Tuesday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain likely, rain
showers likely, patchy fog. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday night through Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas
up to 5 ft.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Slight chance of rain showers.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Tuesday for anz254>256.

Synopsis... Nocera evt
near term... Nocera
short term... Nocera
long term... Evt
aviation... Nocera evt
marine... Nocera evt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 6 mi53 min 54°F 59°F1014.9 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 11 mi98 min N 1 55°F 1016 hPa54°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 22 mi83 min NE 17 G 18 55°F 1015.5 hPa (-1.3)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 24 mi59 min 52°F 58°F1016.1 hPa
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 25 mi43 min 57°F1 ft
FRXM3 25 mi59 min 53°F 50°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 25 mi53 min NE 9.9 G 12 53°F 1015.9 hPa
44090 26 mi23 min 56°F1 ft
PRUR1 31 mi53 min 54°F 51°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 33 mi98 min NE 12 53°F 1016 hPa51°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 33 mi53 min NNE 9.9 G 12 54°F 54°F1015.4 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 33 mi53 min ENE 8.9 G 11 53°F 1016.5 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 34 mi53 min N 11 G 13 52°F 58°F1016 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 36 mi59 min NNE 14 G 15 54°F 58°F1015.8 hPa
PVDR1 37 mi53 min N 7 G 9.9 53°F 1016.5 hPa50°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 39 mi53 min ENE 8.9 G 11 53°F 58°F1016.3 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 40 mi53 min ENE 12 G 14 55°F 56°F1015.1 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 49 mi23 min 60°F4 ft

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA11 mi38 minNE 410.00 miOvercast54°F51°F94%1015.2 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA14 mi30 minNE 510.00 miOvercast53°F50°F89%1015.4 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA15 mi30 minENE 86.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist54°F52°F93%1014.6 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA21 mi31 minNNE 510.00 miLight Rain53°F52°F96%1016.3 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA24 mi27 minE 68.00 miLight Rain55°F52°F90%1014.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFMH

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6S8S8S8S7S4SE4E4SE4SE4SE4NE5NE4NE4NE4NE4NE4NE4
1 day agoNW5NW5NW7NW5NW6N8
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N5CalmW10NW8NW8NW7W10W6W6CalmCalmCalmCalm----CalmCalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for West Falmouth Harbor, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts
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West Falmouth Harbor
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Mon -- 02:11 AM EDT     3.36 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:12 AM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:41 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Mon -- 02:19 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:41 PM EDT     4.10 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:11 PM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.63.13.43.22.61.60.90.50.61.11.62.32.93.544.13.62.71.60.90.50.611.4

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:38 AM EDT     -0.02 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:33 AM EDT     -3.81 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:41 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Mon -- 09:25 AM EDT     0.17 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:19 PM EDT     3.55 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 02:19 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:37 PM EDT     -0.15 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 06:55 PM EDT     -4.06 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 09:54 PM EDT     0.18 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.93.732-1.5-3-3.7-3.7-3.1-1.723.13.53.42.91.8-1.5-2.9-3.8-4.1-3.7-2.70.82.8

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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.