Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mattapoisett Center, MA

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers wind down from west to east this afternoon...but a brief spot shower or two remains possible into this evening. Sunshine returns on Fri.

- Cooler and mainly dry this weekend with a coastal storm passing well offshore.

- Warmer albeit unsettled conditions return next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered showers wind down from west to east this afternoon...but a brief spot shower or two remains possible into early this evening. Sunshine returns on Fri.

Shortwave and associated low pressure will continue to result in scattered showers this morning. This activity will dissipate from west to east this afternoon as deeper moisture/forcing exits this region
Otherwise
upper trough may result in a brief spot shower or two into this evening but overall most of the afternoon and evening hours will be dry. Highs generally between 55 and 60 today. Lows tonight mainly in the upper 30s and lower 40s with perhaps some localized patchy fog very late tonight in the typically prone locations.

Plenty of sunshine returns for Friday with pleasant high temperatures mainly in the lower to middle 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler and mainly dry this weekend with a coastal storm passing well offshore.

Amplified pattern over the weekend should feature a building ridge of high pressure over central Canada which traps a closed 532 decimeter upper low over southern Ontario. There are still slight differences among global guidance in the exact location and strength of the ridge over Canada. The ECMWF shows a more southern solution and thus a bit more in the way of shower activity later Saturday afternoon. On the whole, southern New England should be far enough removed from coldest air aloft to keep us mostly dry, especially given W/NW flow, but pattern certainly favors diurnal clouds and perhaps a few afternoon sprinkles over weekend.

Guidance continues to show a fairly weak low that may bring a few showers or perhaps a period of light rain to the southern coast and the Cape/Islands Saturday night into Sunday morning. Recent trends still paint a weak unamplified picture with the majority of the EPS and GEFS ensembles showing a further offshore track.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Warmer albeit unsettled conditions return next week.

Pattern relaxes a bit early next week as closed low lifts farther north, but we remain under broad cyclonic flow aloft. Eventually longer range guidance shows closed low setting up near upper Great Lakes, putting us in SW flow aloft. This could end up bringing more moisture and warmer air into region by Tuesday/Wednesday as weak front approaches resulting in scattered showers. Ensemble guidance shows 850 mb temp anomalies climbing to +10F above climo Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update...High confidence.

IFR conditions dominate into early afternoon with scattered showers. Gradual improvement during the afternoon from west to east. MVFR conditions may linger into this evening near the coast...but generally expect improvement to VFR conditions tonight. We will have to watch for some very localized fog patches overnight...but nothing widespread. VFR conditions on Friday. Light and variable winds become light NW tonight. WNW around 10 knots on Fri.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Main uncertainty is the when IFR conditions improve to MVFR levels sometime during the afternoon.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night: VFR.

Saturday through Saturday Night: VFR. Chance RA.

Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance RA.

Sunday Night: VFR.

Monday: VFR. Breezy.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

High confidence through the end of the week.

Pressure gradient between slow-moving low pressure SE of the 40/70 benchmark and high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes keeps E/NE winds in play through the end of the week.

Main issue will be the long fetch of NE winds resulting in rough seas of 5 to 8 feet on outer waters through Thu where SCA remains posted. Areas of fog will persist through tonight along with showers.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain.

Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ250.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ254>256.