Sunrise 6:14 AM   Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 3:01 AM   Moonset 2:09 PM

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LEZ148 Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh-conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 944 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Rest of today - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 foot or less. Tonight - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Patchy fog overnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 59 degrees, off cleveland 51 degrees, and off erie 53 degrees.

LEZ100
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FXUS61 KCLE 031740 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 140 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front will lift north into the area this morning. Weak low pressure will move east along this front today, followed by a cold front arriving tonight. Another cold front will cross the area on Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
1230 PM Update...
Currently there is an area of light rain showers along the I71 corridor gradually moving east, but no thunder is being reported. Behind this area of showers, some additional development is possible early afternoon, but the greater potential for thunder has shifted to between 22Z Friday to 02Z Saturday when an area of low level convergence is enhanced by an upper level shortwave moving east. Have adjusted PoPs with this update to reflect that shift in the forecast through tonight. In addition, temperatures across western counties have remained much cooler than originally forecast so have adjusted the high temperature forecast to reflect this.

930 AM Update...
Slight adjustments were made to temperatures to reflect the cooler temperatures this morning, but overall highs remain the same. Some peaks of sun have allowed the eastern counties to warm faster this morning, so still expecting the warmest temperatures to be there. In addition, adjusted PoPs to account for the more scattered nature of the showers this morning and through this afternoon. Not expecting anything severe today, but cannot rule out a couple rumbles of thunder this afternoon.

630 AM Update...
Showers have filled in along the warm front in southwest Ohio and are tracking north along the I-75 corridor. Sped up the rain slightly this morning and raised temperatures at some locations. Otherwise still expecting it to be a wet day with most areas seeing precipitation at some point.

Previous discussion...
Low pressure is located over northern Minnesota this morning with a weaker area of low pressure over Indiana. A warm front extends from this low towards Central Ohio. Broad low pressure will make slow progress east across the area today with the warm front lifting north into northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania although not expected to make it all the way to the lakeshore.
The area will be in the warm sector today but have toned down high temperatures by a couple degrees given the thickening cloud field and expanding showers. Timing of showers is somewhat difficult today given weak flow and broad moisture advection.
Some showers should develop in NW Ohio as the warm front lifts north into the area this morning. Instability will be limited this morning but expect destabilization to aid in shower and thunderstorm development by mid afternoon, especially in Northeast Ohio initially and then shifting into Northwest Pennsylvania this evening. Weak flow over the area will mean storm motion will be 20 knots or less. Severe weather is not expected given modest instability and little shear. Heavy rain will be the bigger concern if any training occurs due to the relatively slow storm motion and PW values over an inch and a half. Highs today will range from near 70 towards the lakeshore to near 80 in the southeastern counties.

A decrease in showers and thunderstorms is expected tonight as mid-level dry air works in from the west and instability decreases. A cold front moves southeast into the area and tends to stall, with some convergence holding on in the southeastern counties. Can not rule out a shower anywhere so will keep a pop everywhere with the highest southeast of a line from Mansfield to Erie PA. By Saturday, dewpoints will remain elevated in the low 60s. Depending on breaks in the clouds and degree of heating, ML CAPE should be a little higher with values in the 1000-1500 J/kg. Flow develops out of the south again as another low pressure system moves into the Midwest. Expect convection to initiate closer to Central Ohio and lift north through the afternoon. Most of Ohio should recover into the 70s while NW Pennsylvania will hold in the 60s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Progressive pattern continues into the short term forecast period and heading into the end of the weekend. Cold front to track through the CWA late Saturday night into Sunday, followed by brief high pressure Sunday night into Monday. Still looking at largely low flows/shear and saturation through the column ahead of and with the cold front, and not much of a severe weather setup but possibly storms highlighted by downpours in a high precipitation efficiency environment. General thunder outlooked from SPC, but will get a relatively short period of stabilization as the aforementioned high pressure builds in for the end of the short term. This late Sunday night/early Monday period is probably going to end up the lowest POPs in both the short and long term forecast. Temperatures cool 4-8 degrees Sunday into Monday in the wake of the cold front.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The cold front that settles just south of the CWA early Monday night will track back northeastward as a warm front late Monday night into early Tuesday, and back into the warm sector. Deep upper level low over the upper midwest region will drive another cold front into the area Tuesday night in southwest flow aloft. Brief high pressure once again Wednesday before another cold front Wednesday night into Thursday. Despite the upper low that will make little headway eastward towards the northern half of the Great Lakes by the end of the long term, no real significant changes in airmass in terms of temperature expected.

AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/
Widespread VFR conditions will continue ahead of the approaching cold front through the first part of tonight. There is currently an area of light rain showers moving east across the area, but no thunder has been reported and visibilities have remained near 10SM. There remains a potential of scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon into the evening hours as an upper level shortwave enhancing lift over the area. With low confidence in the placement of these thunderstorms, opted to handle them with a TEMPO beginning at 21Z for KTOL and gradually push east. In the strongest storms, visibilities and ceilings may briefly fall to MVFR conditions, but should quickly rebound.

Overnight tonight, the aforementioned pushes east, allow for much of the area to briefly experience dry conditions. Behind this boundary, ceilings will lower to MVFR heights and should persist for most sites through the end of the period. A chance of showers returns Saturday afternoon.

Variable winds of 4-6 knots will persist across the area until Saturday morning when they become sustained at 5-10 knots from the southeast. The exception will be KTOL which will have a 5-10 knots wind from the northeast. Isolated gusts are possible near the end of the period for KERI due to downslope enhancement.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with periodic showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday.

MARINE
East northeast winds dominate through Saturday with 1-3ft waves for the western and central basins of LAke Erie. Beyond that through early next week, expect varying wind directions thanks to several frontal systems coming through the region. Despite some onshore winds at times, wave heights should remain in the 1-2ft range or less for the bulk of the forecast.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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