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LEZ148 Expires:202312080315;;072070 Fzus51 Kcle 072032 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 332 pm est Thu dec 7 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez147-148-080315- willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh-geneva-on-the- lake to conneaut oh- 332 pm est Thu dec 7 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm est this evening...
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 40 degrees, off cleveland 43 degrees, and off erie 43 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 072308 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 608 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure over the upper Midwest moves into the northern Great Lakes by Friday night. A stronger area of low pressure moves into the central Great Lakes Saturday afternoon with its cold front moving east across the region Saturday night into Sunday morning. High pressure moves east across the area on Monday and Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
An upper-level ridge becomes centered overhead tonight and tomorrow with surface high pressure over the southeast CONUS moving further east offshore. mid-level clouds over Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania should dissipate from west to east as that ridge builds in. Southwest winds become south tonight and tomorrow, with continued warm air advection bringing highs into the low to mid 50s on Friday. Low pressure approaches from the southeast Friday night, bringing increasing upper and mid-level cloud cover areawide, along with isolated rain showers west of I-71.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Rain chances increase throughout the day Saturday as isentropic ascent deepens ahead of a cold front approaching from the west as deepening low pressure lifts into the northern Great Lakes.
Widespread rain will develop in at least the eastern three quarters of the CWA by Saturday evening which will continue into Sunday as low pressure develops over the Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic and moves northeast along the cold front. LLJ will likely be most robust across eastern zones late Saturday into early Sunday where PoPs and QPF are highest; periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall are likely during this time. Not too concerned about flooding since it will be a longer duration event and FFG guidance is relatively high, but may need to keep an eye on the most responsive creeks and rivers across the CWA.

Cold air advection on the backside of the cold front will result in a transition to a rain/snow mix Sunday afternoon and all snow by Sunday night as 850mb temps drop to as low as -7 to -10C. Still some uncertainty in the lake-induced instability, but a few inches of snow accumulation are possible overnight Sunday, primarily across the snowbelt region and especially in interior NW PA.

Temps will be well above normal Saturday with maximum temps in the mid to upper 50s and lower 60s expected in the warm sector. Saturday night's lows will fall into the mid to upper 30s. Expect much cooler temps on Sunday thanks to the cold front; highs will remain in the low to mid 40s. Sunday night's lows will be in the upper 20s to around 30 degrees.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Any lingering lake effect precip should taper off throughout the day Monday as high pressure ushers drier air in from the west. The forecast is dry starting Monday evening and this trend should continue through at least Tuesday evening. A few snow showers are possible as an upper trough and weak cold front clip the northeastern portion of the CWA, but the best forcing and resulting precip chances may remain to the east of the local area. High pressure and dry weather should return by Thursday morning.

Don't expect temperatures to fluctuate too much next week with highs generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s and lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/
VFR conditions are expected to continue through this TAF period across terminals. Anticipating a mainly clear sky as high pressure ridging prevails. We may begin to see ceilings gradually lower to 5000-9000 ft by the tail end of this TAF period ahead of our next weather system.

Higher wind speeds and gusts from this afternoon have diminished with southerly flow between 5 and 10 knots across terminals this evening into the overnight. Aloft, anticipating for a fairly strong LLJ (40-45 knots at 925 mb) to move overhead and allow for LLWS conditions to occur across western terminals (KTOL/KFDY/MFD) overnight tonight. These higher winds aloft will mix down to the surface by Friday morning and lead to another afternoon of gusty conditions. Southerly winds 12-15 knots sustained with gusts 20-25 knots will be likely across terminals through the remainder of this TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR with widespread rain is expected Saturday afternoon through Sunday. As the system exits to the east, lake effect snow may impact terminals across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania Sunday night and Monday.

MARINE
Southwest winds to around 20 knots and waves of 2 to 5 feet will continue in the eastern basin of Lake Erie through early evening and a Small Craft Advisory remains in place from Willowick OH to Ripley NY. Starting to see a slight decline in wind speeds as of this writing (~3 PM EST), so may be able to cancel early if this trend continues. South to southwest winds relax to 10 to 15 knots tonight which should persist through Friday night with the exception of a brief period of enhanced wind speeds in the open waters Friday afternoon. Southerly winds increase to 15 to 20 knots in response to an approaching cold front Saturday, which may result in the next opportunity for a Small Craft Advisory if winds trend higher with the enhancement of downsloping. Winds may diminish as the cold front crosses the area Saturday night into Sunday morning, but Small Craft Advisories will be needed as winds shift to the northwest and increase to around 20 knots by Sunday evening. Headlines will likely continue through Monday, especially in the eastern basin where flow will be onshore.

CLIMATE
It is expected to get very warm on Saturday, December 9th, with it forecast to be near record high temperatures. Here are the daily record high temperatures for December 9th for area climate sites:

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie

12-09 60(1952) 60(1952) 62(1952) 62(1952) 64(1952) 65(1885)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

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