Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Euclid, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:41AMSunset 4:57PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 3:07 PM EST (20:07 UTC) Moonrise 4:46PMMoonset 6:55AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ146 Expires:201912111515;;182040 Fzus51 Kcle 110911 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 411 Am Est Wed Dec 11 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez145>148-111515- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- 411 Am Est Wed Dec 11 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west to 30 knots. A chance of snow showers early, then a slight chance of snow showers late this morning. A chance of snow showers this afternoon. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 6 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Tonight..West winds to 30 knots becoming southwest and diminishing to 5 to 15 knots overnight. A chance of snow showers in the evening. Waves 6 to 9 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday. The water temperature off toledo is 39 degrees, off cleveland 41 degrees, and off erie 41 degrees.
LEZ146


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Euclid, OH
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location: 41.61, -81.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 111804 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 104 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

SYNOPSIS. A ridge of high pressure over the region this morning will get pushed south as a cold front moves through the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon. Behind the front, high pressure will reassert itself over the Ohio Valley for Thursday before moving off the East Coast for Friday. A pair of low pressure systems will then surround the region for the weekend, as a low moves through the northwest Great Lakes, eventually merging with a stronger low moves up the East Coast.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/. Scattered snow showers are being observed on radar and ASOS early this afternoon, which is being very poorly handled by model guidance. The only model that has anything is the WRF-NMM, which has system snow around through about 22 or 23 UTC. Lake effect snow currently just offshore will be shifting its way onshore over the next few hours, bringing periods of heavy snow, especially for the lakeshore areas of Lake, Ashtabula and Erie Counties. Winds for the same areas also increase over the next few hours introducing blowing snow and reduced visibility. Snow accumulations are 3 to 5 inches of snow expected for northeast Erie County and 1 to 3 inches for western Erie County to eastern Lake County.

Original Discussion . Lake effect snow that prompted a Winter Weather Advisory on Tuesday evening has moved north over Lake Erie this morning, as low level winds have backed around to the southwest over Ohio and Pennsylvania. These winds, along with drier air associated with a ridge of high pressure extending in from the southwest, will keep much of the forecast area dry for the morning hours, as the focus for snow development will be over Lake Erie and into western New York. Later this afternoon, a strong upper trough will enter the Great Lakes region and the trough axis and associated 500 mb vorticity maximum will swing through the eastern Great Lakes, supporting a surface cold front. This front will push the snow back south into the PA and OH Snow Belt region this afternoon with moderate to heavy lake effect snow. The thermodynamics for this event appear impressive for a period. The cold air surging into the region will allow for the convective boundary layer depth to grow to 8000 ft, help good low level lapse rates and ascent in the DGZ, and the lake and antecedent moisture will present fairly good saturation in the low levels. All of this would indicate a period of heavy snow around the evening commute, especially for Erie County PA. The one limiting factor will be how quickly the arctic, continental dry air will settle into the region. 850 mb moisture will disappear quickly after dark and the inversion heights begin decreasing quickly. With all of that said and the over- performance of snow last evening, have extended the Winter Weather Advisory for Erie County PA through 1 AM on Thursday. The moderate to heavy snow, plus strong winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 to 40 mph, will bring a quick period of 3 to 5 inches of snow, which will also be blowing and drifting. Further west into Ohio, there is less confidence on the extent of snowfall as the dry air will enter more quickly. Have 1 to 3 inches of snow for Lake, Geauga, and Ashtabula Counties for now, but these areas will need to be evaluated. Snow will continue through the overnight, but any additional accumulations appear to be very light after 1 AM. Temperatures will be in the 20s during the day time hours and will fall back into the teens over the region at night. This, along with some gusty winds with the frontal passage, will allow for wind chills to fall into the single digits for a period this evening.

The upper trough swings through and surface high pressure builds into the region for Thursday. Dry air and lack of forcing will make for a dry and partly cloudy forecast. Low level flow will back around to the southwest during the day on Thursday and temperatures will recover into the 30s for highs.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. High pressure will continue east towards the New England Coast by Thursday night as a weak shortwave passes across the Upper Great Lakes. Development of a low pressure system is expected Friday across the Southeast and could impact the area with rain by Saturday as the system slides northwards along the East Coast. The ECMWF and GFS are similar with the timing of the low, but somewhat differ in the placement and strength of the low pressure center. By Saturday morning, the ECMWF solution has a stronger and more inland-centered low while the GFS is slightly weaker and just offshore the Delmarva Peninsula. At the same time, another low pressure system is expected to dive down into the Ohio Valley from the Northern Plains, increasing precipitation chances in the western half by Saturday afternoon. Precipitation will likely remain all rain for most of Saturday, changing over to a rain/snow mix by Saturday night. As this low passes east and drags a cold front across the area, increasing westerly winds and an influx of colder air will lead to lake effect rain and snow showers late Saturday night into Sunday afternoon, turning to all snow by Sunday night.

Have increased low temperatures Thursday night into the upper 20s to low 30s across the area due to cloudier conditions and increased southerly winds. Highs will reach the mid 40s on Friday, low 40s on Saturday, then struggle to reach freezing by Sunday following the cold frontal passage.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. High pressure will move east across the region on Sunday night. Both the 00Z GFS/ECMWF with some support from the Canadian model show an upper level trough developing over the Rocky Mountains during this time frame, then curling northeast towards the Eastern Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday. Precipitation will accompany this system with storm track critical to both precip types and temperatures. The latest ECMWF favors a colder solution which would bring snow to portions of the area while the GFS track is 200 miles to the northwest and much warmer. Our official forecast will be on the cooler side of the blend with just chance pops given a lot can change with day 7 storm track and timing. Lake effect snows will also be possible on the back side of this system.

AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/. Widespread clouds associated with a subtle upper level feature will have a mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings this afternoon. In addition, some snow showers were persist through the afternoon, mainly briefly impacting KMFD, KCAK, and perhaps KYNG. Those showers should be out of the area by around 23 UTC. Lake effect snow currently over Lake Erie will be making its way onshore over the next hour, mainly impacting KERI this afternoon and into tonight. Snow will be moderate to heavy in intensity with strong winds that will present a blowing snow scenario. Have a window of MVFR snow in the KERI TAF with a heavy hitting tempo group for moderate snow, blowing snow, and LIFR conditions. Right now have it only down to 1/2 mile, but could see visibilities dropping down to 1/4 mile or less very briefly at times. Snow will depart overnight and all areas should return to VFR. Current sustained west winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 30 knots will be possible through the next few hours before decreasing to below 10 knots 02 UTC. Southerly winds increase to near 10 knots right at the end of the TAF cycle.

OUTLOOK. Non-VFR possible Friday evening through Sunday with rain/snow each night and all rain during the daytime hours. Non-VFR possible with snow on Monday.

MARINE. Southwest winds will ramp up today to 25-35 knots on Lake Erie ahead of the next cold front that will slide south across Lake Erie this afternoon. A Gale Warning remains in effect for the nearshore and open waters generally east of Conneaut with 35 knot gales expected. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the remaining nearshore waters. As southwest winds ramp up today, water levels will drop on the western basin of Lake Erie. The water level is expected to approach but remain just above the critical mark for safe navigation but will need to be monitored closely today. High pressure will quickly build east across the lake tonight resulting in rapidly improving conditions.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for PAZ001-002. MARINE . Low Water Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ142-143- 162-163. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LEZ142>148. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ149-169.

SYNOPSIS . Sefcovic NEAR TERM . Saunders/Sefcovic SHORT TERM . Kahn LONG TERM . KEC AVIATION . Saunders MARINE . KEC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 9 mi50 min W 23 G 29 27°F 41°F1028.3 hPa12°F
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 16 mi50 min WSW 35 G 39 27°F 38°F1027.5 hPa18°F
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 33 mi98 min WSW 15 G 27 27°F
LORO1 38 mi38 min W 25 G 33 27°F

Wind History for Cleveland, OH
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH2 mi23 minW 18 G 2710.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy27°F12°F54%1028.4 hPa
Cleveland, Burke Lakefront Airport, OH11 mi15 minW 22 G 294.00 miOvercast with Haze and Breezy28°F14°F56%1030 hPa
Cleveland Hopkins International Airport, OH23 mi17 minW 19 G 2510.00 miOvercast and Breezy27°F12°F55%1031.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGF

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)
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W11--SW11SW13SW12SW13SW9SW9SW12
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1 day agoSW12
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2 days agoS9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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