Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Willoughby, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1) Below average temperatures will linger through today and tonight.

2) Multiple rounds of widespread showers and thunderstorms will impact the holiday weekend. Heavy rainfall with totals of 1-1.5 inches may result in localized flooding.

3) Summer-like temperatures will return by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A cool Canadian high pressure system will build down across the Great Lakes today into tonight from southern Ontario. Sky conditions will remain mostly cloudy to partly cloudy due to high and mid level clouds streaming in from the Lower Ohio Valley. A cool and brisk northeast flow today will keep high temperatures in the lower to middle 60s for most of the area.
Overnight low temperatures tonight will drop back down into the middle to upper 40s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The beginning of a wet and unsettled weather pattern will start to impact the region later on Friday. A stalled frontal boundary located near the Lower Ohio Valley will start to lift northward as a warm front on Friday. Rain chances in the form of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will increase from south to north Friday afternoon and evening. Likely to definite POPs will overspread the area Friday night. Isolated thunder will be possible but no organized severe convection is expected at this time. High POPs between 80 and 100 percent is expected to continue into Saturday across the area. High POPs will lingering into Saturday evening with a gradual tapering off of rain chances from west to east during the overnight. A surface trough will linger over the region Sunday and Monday with scattered to likely POPs Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon. Overall rainfall totals Friday through Monday will average between 1 and 1.5 inches with isolated amounts up to 2 inches possible.
This period of heavy rainfall may lead to some isolated localized flooding or elevated water rises on area streams and rivers. Temperatures this weekend into Memorial Day will eventually climb into the 70s to near 80 degrees.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
By middle of next week, an upper level ridge will develop over the eastern Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday. High moisture content will linger underneath the ridge with temperatures warming into the lower to middle 80s areawide.
Isolated to widely scattered diurnal convection will be possible through the middle of next week given the tropical like airmass.

AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/
VFR conditions are anticipated through at least early Friday morning before clouds increase from the south late in the TAF period. A few showers and MVFR ceilings can't be ruled out at southern terminals towards the end of the TAF period, however it appears that the chance is greater after 18Z Friday.

Winds will be out of the east/northeast at 8 to 15 knots throughout the TAF period with gusts to 20 to 25 knots during the day today and Friday. Winds will be slightly higher at KERI this afternoon with sustained winds to 20 knots and gusts to 30 knots expected. Gusts should diminish after sunset.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected at times in rain late Friday through Saturday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms with non- VFR conditions possible again on Sunday and Monday.

MARINE
Unsettled marine conditions will persist through late Saturday and Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements remain in place for the next couple of days with headlines ending from the east starting Friday evening. East/northeast winds to 15 to 25 knots are expected through Friday evening with winds becoming more southeasterly on Friday night. Waves will be highest at 5 to 7 feet in the central basin during this time, including the eastern side of the Islands.

Winds will likely diminish a bit during the day Saturday as low pressure lifts northeast towards Lake Erie, although offshore winds around 20 knots are likely in the eastern basin through Saturday. Headlines may need to continue if winds trend higher.
Winds become more light and variable Sunday through Tuesday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday morning for OHZ003- 007-009-010.
Beach Hazards Statement through Friday evening for OHZ011-012- 089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ142>145.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Friday for LEZ146>149.