North Falmouth, MA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Falmouth, MA


December 8, 2023 3:17 PM EST (20:17 UTC)
Sunrise 6:56AM   Sunset 4:14PM   Moonrise  3:15AM   Moonset 2:30PM 

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 101 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
This afternoon..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri..N winds around 5 kt, becoming sw around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sat and Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun night..S winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 101 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres overspreads the waters through the rest of this week. A powerful low pres may approach the waters sometime Sun into Mon.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Falmouth, MA
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Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 081816 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 116 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure maintains dry weather through Saturday with temperatures rising to above normal levels. A strong frontal system has the potential to bring a period of heavy rain, strong southerly winds and coastal flooding along the south coast late Sunday into Monday. A few snow showers across northwest Massachusetts are possible Monday afternoon and evening as the system departs. Otherwise turning drier Monday evening with a brief shot of colder air for the overnight, but temperatures look to rebound back closer to seasonable levels Tuesday through Thursday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

130 PM update...

1022 mb surface ridge providing a pleasant December afternoon across the region, with partly to mostly sunny conditions and temps 40-45, mid to upper 30s high terrain. Fairly tranquil given light winds and sunshine. Previous forecast remains on track, therefore no changes with this update. Earlier discussion below.

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Chilly airmass over SNE this morning with temps in the 30s and dew pts in the 20s, but not too bad for early Dec, especially with sunshine (for most areas) and light winds. Satellite imagery shows WAA clouds spilling over the ridge into western- central MA into northeast CT and RI. Therefore, morning sunshine will give way to increasing clouds this afternoon.

Given subsidence inversion over the area, not much boundary layer mixing, limiting highs to the 40s, which is just about on track for early Dec.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/

Not much change tonight into Saturday. Warm front should struggle to move completely north of our region by Saturday evening. However, there should be enough of a surge of warm air to result in near to slightly above normal temperatures, despite partly to mostly cloudy skies. Dry weather continues through Saturday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Update: 4:10AM

* Quiet, mild, and dry through the first-half of Sunday. Afternoon highs could approach 60 degrees Sunday ahead of a robust weather system.

* Multi-hazardous system Sunday night through Monday bringing strong winds, soaking rains, coastal flooding concerns, in addition to dangerous marine conditions.

* Quieter and cooler Tuesday and Thursday.

Saturday Night and Sunday:

Generally dry, increasing cloud cover, and strengthening winds. The surface high to the south and mid-level ridge aloft shift east ahead of an approaching system. More on that in just a bit. During this update opt to modify POPs, trending a drier day on Sunday, mainly during the daylight hours. POPs/rain chances begin to increase from west to east during the early to mid afternoon. Out ahead of the storm WAA ushers mild temperatures into SNE. Temperatures overnight into Sunday morning range between the mid-30s across the interior and the mid-40s across the coastal plains. Sunday afternoon highs are between 55-60 degrees, a few spots in SE MA make a run towards the low-60s. South winds increase throughout the day, nothing overly strong, but more noticeable during the afternoon hours with winds 10 to 15 MPH, gusts 20 to 25 MPH.

Sunday night through Monday night:

Confidence continues to increase that a robust storm will impact SNE late Sunday night and through part of Monday, likely causing some headaches for Monday's morning commute. Model guidance continues to support a mid-level trough, somewhat negatively tilted, approaching SNE with a developing surface low in the vicinity of Chesapeake Bay based on global ensembles. For what it is worth, deterministic guidance would suggest the low would quickly deepen, as it traverses between the Mid-Atlantic to northern Maine/SE Quebec, dropping from 1003mb to 975mb in a 24-hour period. And when it comes to the LLJ, there really remains no changes, 925mb over RI and SE MA remain out of the south 70 to 80 knots. Further west/inland the 925mb winds are too from the south between 40 to 60 knots.

This storm is likely to bring multiple hazards to SNE, strong wind gusts, heavy rains with localized flooding concerns, and hazardous marine conditions which include possible coastal flooding. Let us break it down the details a bit more:

Strong Winds - Guidance remains in fair agreement a robust LLJ will cross SNE late night into Monday, generally 00z to 18z Monday. The jet remains the strongest over the waters, likely to bring the strongest of the winds to RI and eastern MA; including locations from Cape Ann to Cape Cod, and the adjacent islands. As mentioned above, the 925mb southerly winds over RI and SE MA are between 70 and 80 knots. While further west/inland the 925mb winds are 40 to 60 knots. It is still difficult to say how much of the wind will mix down to the surface due to an inversion below the LLJ. DESI mean wind gust across SNE suggests 40 to 50 MPH gusts, while the south coast of RI, SE MA, and Cape Ann are closer to 60 MPH. But there is the potential for some of the stronger winds to mix down during convective showers, more on that in a bit. Similar to last night, the ECMWF ensemble continues with 60 and 80 percent probabilities of gusts exceeding 50 knots for the south coast of RI, SE MA, and Cape Ann. Plus there are lower probabilities between 20 and 40 percent of gusts exceeding 64 knots across the outer Cape and Nantucket. At this point there are no wind headlines issued, but it is becoming more likely it will be needed Sunday night into Monday. It is worth noting after the surface low tracks north and away from SNE there will be CAA, allowing for less strong winds aloft to mix down easier to the surface, below advisory criteria between 25 and 35 MPH, still plenty of time to watch this.

Rain - The system will bring periods of heavy rainfall, PWATS surge to 1.5", potentially higher, which is 300 to 400 percent of normal for early December. Much of the global ensembles have agreement on totals between 1 and 2 inches, with the greatest totals west and lesser amounts east. And on the extreme, the GFS ensembles have up to a 20 percent probability of rainfall exceeding 4 inches.

WPC has kept SNE under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. Flash flooding isn't an overall concern, but not out of the question. What is more likely is poor drainage flooding due to leaf litter clogging storm drains. Also, the MMEFS, ensemble river forecast, would suggest a few area rivers have a 30 percent probability of reaching minor flooding in western MA/CT. Something we will continue to keep an eye on.

Lastly, we can not rule out some thunder during the overnight as the possibility is there for a fine line to develop, as this system has more spring-like qualities. We will need to watch the CAMS and additional high-res model guidance as we get closer to the event.
Currently NAM3KM only goes out to 12z Sunday. In the event of thunderstorm development it would become easier to mix those strong winds aloft from the LLJ down to the surface.

Marine and Coastal - Because of the growing confidence of strong gusts over area waters, opt to issue a Gale Watch in collaboration with neighboring WFO. In addition to potential gale force winds there are increasing seas and dangerous surf. Seas off shore build to a height of 12 to 15 feet, while closer to the shore line, waves could be as high as 8 to 12 feet! It is not out of the realm of possibilities there could be coastal erosion along south facing beaches.

It is also a possibility there could be coastal flooding, primarily for the coastal communities of southern RI and south facing shores of southeast MA. This would likely occur during the high tide Monday morning, roughly around 5-7 AM. High tide at Fox Point, RI is 6:20AM at 4.72 feet, coupled with a potential surge of 2.0 feet, that would bring this area to action stage, potentially minor flooding. Stevens Institute shows the 50th percentile just below minor flooding, while the 95th percentile would crest below moderate flood level, which is 9.0 feet. There still remains plenty of uncertainty as the max surge would need to coincide with the high tide. Likely why there is a wide spread amongst the ensemble members, the 5th percentile would keep water levels well below action stage. Plenty of time to watch over the coming days.

Monday Night - System moves to the northeast, CAA ushers cooler and drier air, with the lingering moisture a few snow showers are likely across NW MA, could lead to minor accumulations. Temperatures drop into the low and middle-20s, breezy WNW winds gusting to 25-35 MPH.

Tuesday through Thursday: A more quiet week ahead with surface high pressure building across the center of the nation, with mid-level ridging to our west comes later in the week. No significant weather during this period, likely a dry stretch too. Highs are in the upper- 30s and low-40s. Overnight lows mid-20s to low-30s.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z update...

Thru 00z...VFR cloud bases except some MVFR cigs over RI. Not much change thru 00z. Light and variable winds becoming S-SE.
Dry weather prevails.

After 00z...VFR cloud bases, dry weather and winds SSW.

Saturday...VFR cloud bases, dry weather, south winds 5-10 kt inland, 10-15 kt along the coast.

Saturday night...VFR cloud bases and dry weather. However, trending MVFR in areas of fog and a risk of showers toward 12z Sun across western MA/CT. South winds 5-10 kt.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Quiet weather through Saturday evening.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Quiet weather through Saturday evening.

Outlook /Sunday through Tuesday/...

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Chance RA, patchy BR.

Sunday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Strong winds with gusts up to 50 kt. RA, isolated TSRA, patchy BR.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds with gusts up to 50 kt. RA, patchy BR.

Monday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

High Confidence.

Expecting relatively light winds and seas through Saturday. A warm front should move across the southern coastal waters Saturday, but remain west of the eastern coastal waters through then.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Sunday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt.
Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Sunday Night: Low risk for storm force winds with gusts up to 50 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Rain, isolated thunderstorms, patchy fog. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Monday: Low risk for storm force winds with gusts up to 50 kt.
Rough seas up to 15 ft. Rain, patchy fog. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Monday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft.

Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 8 mi47 min 42°F 45°F30.19
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 8 mi92 min WNW 1.9 43°F 30.1827°F
NBGM3 13 mi47 min S 7G8 42°F 30.18
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 22 mi37 min 0G1.9 44°F 46°F30.1930°F
44090 22 mi47 min 39°F 48°F1 ft
44085 26 mi51 min 49°F2 ft
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 26 mi77 min S 1.9G2.9 40°F 30.20
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 27 mi47 min 43°F 47°F30.20
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 28 mi47 min WSW 5.1G6 42°F 30.20
FRXM3 28 mi47 min 42°F 32°F
PRUR1 34 mi47 min 42°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 36 mi92 min SSE 1.9 42°F 30.1831°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 36 mi47 min SE 1G2.9 42°F 30.22
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 37 mi47 min SE 4.1G5.1 41°F 47°F30.19
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 37 mi47 min 0G4.1 43°F 46°F30.19
CHTM3 38 mi47 min N 6G8 40°F 42°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 39 mi47 min NNE 1.9G5.1 42°F 42°F30.20
PDVR1 40 mi47 min E 4.1G4.1 42°F 30.1932°F
PVDR1 40 mi47 min S 6G7 43°F 30.2034°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 40 mi47 min ESE 2.9G4.1 41°F 44°F30.20
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 41 mi47 min SE 4.1G5.1 42°F 46°F30.19
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 47 mi37 min NW 5.8G7.8 39°F 49°F30.2029°F
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 49 mi37 min S 1.9G3.9 40°F 49°F30.1928°F

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Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KFMH CAPE COD COAST GUARD AIR STATION,MA 8 sm32 minvar 0310 smClear43°F28°F57%30.19
KEWB NEW BEDFORD RGNL,MA 16 sm24 minS 0510 smClear43°F30°F61%30.19
KMVY MARTHA'S VINEYARD,MA 17 sm24 minS 0410 smClear43°F30°F61%30.19
KPYM PLYMOUTH MUNI,MA 19 sm25 minno data10 smClear39°F32°F75%30.18
KHYA BARNSTABLE MUNIBOARDMAN/POLANDO FIELD,MA 20 sm21 minNNW 0310 smClear39°F28°F65%30.19

Wind History from FMH
(wind in knots)


Tide / Current for Chappaquoit Point, West Falmouth Harbor, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts
   
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Chappaquoit Point
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Fri -- 02:14 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:06 AM EST     3.65 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:03 AM EST     0.65 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:30 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:12 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 04:25 PM EST     3.26 feet High Tide
Fri -- 09:59 PM EST     0.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Chappaquoit Point, West Falmouth Harbor, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts, Tide feet
12
am
1.3
1
am
1.9
2
am
2.6
3
am
3.3
4
am
3.6
5
am
3.4
6
am
2.8
7
am
2
8
am
1.2
9
am
0.8
10
am
0.6
11
am
0.7
12
pm
1
1
pm
1.4
2
pm
2.1
3
pm
2.8
4
pm
3.2
5
pm
3.2
6
pm
2.6
7
pm
1.8
8
pm
1
9
pm
0.5
10
pm
0.3
11
pm
0.5



Tide / Current for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
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Fri -- 02:14 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:28 AM EST     3.66 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:54 AM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:40 AM EST     -3.85 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:51 AM EST     0.02 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:30 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:54 PM EST     3.57 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:11 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:13 PM EST     -0.02 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:01 PM EST     -3.91 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current, knots
12
am
2.2
1
am
3.2
2
am
3.6
3
am
3.6
4
am
3.3
5
am
2.5
6
am
-0.9
7
am
-2.9
8
am
-3.7
9
am
-3.8
10
am
-3.4
11
am
-2.4
12
pm
1
1
pm
2.7
2
pm
3.4
3
pm
3.6
4
pm
3.4
5
pm
2.8
6
pm
1.3
7
pm
-2.5
8
pm
-3.6
9
pm
-3.9
10
pm
-3.6
11
pm
-2.8




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Boston, MA,



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