North Falmouth, MA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Falmouth, MA

May 16, 2024 11:20 PM EDT (03:20 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:20 AM   Sunset 7:59 PM
Moonrise 1:15 PM   Moonset 2:21 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 1003 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024

Overnight - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: ne 2 ft at 3 seconds and S 2 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog. Areas of drizzle with a slight chance of showers, then areas of drizzle with a chance of rain with vsby 1 nm or less.

Fri - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: ne 2 ft at 3 seconds and se 2 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Areas of drizzle in the morning with vsby 1 nm or less.

Fri night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: ne 2 ft at 3 seconds and se 2 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.

Sat - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 8 seconds and ne 1 foot at 3 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.

Sat night through Sun night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 8 seconds and ne 1 foot at 3 seconds.

Mon through Tue night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: ne 1 foot at 2 seconds and E 1 foot at 9 seconds.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 1003 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024

Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - Low pres S of new england will move slowly se through tonight, bringing a period of enhanced E to ene winds to the waters. High pres then builds in from atlc canada into srn new england Fri into this weekend, then should remain in place into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Falmouth, MA
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Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 170154 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 954 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
Rainfall tapering off for most late this afternoon, but may not be until this evening for parts of the south coast. Patchy fog spreading into the eastern half of southern New England. Could perhaps be dense at times in a few spots. Temperatures rebound nicely on Friday after the AM fog burns off. The weekend features generally dry weather and onshore breezes, but still a good amount of cloud cover. A warming trend then develops Monday through Wednesday, and we could see a couple days of high temperatures in the low 80s over interior sections of Southern New England. After today, our next chance for rain develops late next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/

10 PM Update...

A last gasp of light showers has been impacting the islands over the last few hours, the greatest impact of which is persistent low stratus and a few hundredths of QPF, as low pressure continues to draw south of souther New England. Many localities away from the immediate south coast were able to break out into sunshine before sunset this evening, allowing for pretty quick radiation where winds calmed quickly. As mentioned by the previous forecaster, fog and stratus redevelopment overnight will be fueled by residual moisture and onshore flow. The question remains on if NNE/ENE will be strong enough to advect low clouds into the Boston metro area, which will be something we watch closely overnight.

Otherwise, very seasonable night expected. Many towns have already fallen back into the mid-50s. Should start to see fog form over the next few hours, with Tds in the low to mid 50s, as dewpoint depressions drop below 3F across the interior. Winds, still gusting as high as 25mph along the south coast/in RI, will delay fog formation in these locations.

Previous Update...

* Marine stratus/fog possibly dense at times spreading into central MA/RI eastward tonight.

A cutoff low will meander from south of southern New England late tonight to the southeast of our region by early Fri. Behind the cutoff a ridge slides from the Mid Atlantic/eastern Great Lakes into western New England by early Fri. Low pressure south of Long Island late today will rotate southeastward tonight, while high pressure nudges in from Upstate NY.

Main change to the forecast was slightly slow down precipitation tapering off from the low meandering offshore. Think for the MA-Pike northward things should end by this evening, but may not be until 10 PM to midnight for precip to cease for the MA-Pike southward. This will take the longest for MVY/ACK. Fortunately the heaviest precipitation is over with as the mesoscale band that set up is falling apart. This axis of precip will slide southeastward. Leaned pretty heavily on the previous ARW and current NSSL WRF as it is handling this band quite well based on observations.

The other main concern to the forecast for tonight is given the onshore flow am anticipating marine stratus/fog along with some drizzle to spread into southern New England. This has been hinted at by the past two cycles of the HRRR and several GLAMP runs. Have trended the forecast in this direction tonight for central MA/RI eastward. Not out of the question there could be some spots where the fog is dense, but not completely certain on this risk at this junction as guidance is all over the place.
Something we will need to monitor given the prolonged ENE to NE flow as it could linger into the Fri AM commute.

Cloud cover will be slow to clear for most other than portions of western MA/CT as this is closer to the high nudging its way in. Not expecting much radiational cooling and think the 50th percentile of guidance looks reasonable at this point. Lows in the low/mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Highlights

* Any stratus/fog anticipated to erode Fri AM. Mix of sun and clouds through Fri.

* Increasing clouds Fri Night into early Sat. Could see the stratus/fog returning to portions of eastern MA.

Ridge axis over western New England early on Fri builds over southern New England and into the Gulf of ME by late in the day.
The ridge essentially remains in place as we head into Fri Night, but may flatten out a bit as a shortwave lifts across the eastern Great Lakes into northern New England. A weak high nudges into New England on Fri and Fri Night.

Dry and quiet weather anticipated on Fri with high pressure in control. Should see any of the lingering stratus/fog burning off by mid to perhaps late AM. Will still have prolonged ENE to NE winds, but think given the breaks of May sun we should warm up quite nicely. Should see 925 hPa temps of 11-15 Celsius. The result should be widespread highs in the 60s with some mid 70s across the CT River Valley. Still may struggle to hit 60 degrees for portions of the east coast given the onshore winds, but will still have roughly 15-30 kt ENE to NE LLJ at 925. Should result in a fairly well mixed boundary layer, which should keep our temps up. It will be a bit breezy into the afternoon.

Still anticipating dry and quiet weather to persist as we head into Fri Night/Sat AM. Though we will see increasing cloudiness as the ridge axis gets shunted to the south due to the shortwave lifting in. Not a whole lot of moisture to work with in the mid levels, but there is increasing low level moisture per 1000-850 hPa RH fields. Should have PWATs of 0.75 to roughly 1 inch. At this point leaning on a dry forecast, but the ECMWF does eek out some spotty showers across the interior. Think there is a better shot given prolonged ENE to NE winds that we see another round of marine stratus/fog/drizzle across eastern areas heading into Sat AM.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Key messages...

* Outside of a spot shower, mainly dry weather is expected through at least the middle of next week.

* After a slightly cooler than average weekend a big warm-up arrives for early next week with 80s possible by Tuesday.

Details...

Saturday and Sunday...

Overall a welcome trend in the forecast for the weekend over the last 24-48 hours for anyone with outdoor activities as, even though the clouds will stick around, things should be dry on the whole.
This is thanks to a ridge of high pressure which will extend SW from Nova Scotia further into SNE each day. The positioning of that high will continue to direct cool, moist NE flow into the region. Thus, Saturday should be mostly cloudy, and Sunday, while drier air does start to work in from the upper levels down for lessening clouds, will still be at least partly cloudy. Besides keeping the clouds around this wind direction also keeps temperatures below normal; highs will be coolest in eastern MA (upper 50s/low 60s) and warmest in the CT Valley (low 70s).

Next week...

A pleasant week is setting up through at least Wednesday as high pressure continues to center overhead pushing one low pressure further to our east and suppressing one to the south over the Carolina coast. Surface flow eventually veers to the SW while at the same time we'll be seeing more insolation (thanks to less clouds)
and a warming mid level airmass. 850 mb warm from +8C on Sunday to +15C on Tuesday which looks to be the hottest day of the week; expecting temps well into the upper 70s for many locations and even low 80s for places like the CT and Merrimack Valleys. EPS and GEFS ensemble guidance currently outline a 40-50% chance of temps AOA 80F on Tuesday afternoon for those locations. It's not until around Thursday that we could see this dry pattern breaking down with the arrival of our next shortwave, but confidence is low at this distance in time.

AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight...Moderate confidence.

Western interior terminals may briefly improve to VFR this evening before lowering to MVFR/IFR as stratus spreads in.
Leaned more pessimistic for central MA/RI eastward due to prolonged ENE to NE winds (onshore flow). Anticipating that the marine stratus/fog layer spreads in lowering us to IFR and LIFR conditions. Could even see some dense fog in spots, especially across portions of Cape/Islands. For now kept things no worse than 1/2 SM, but may need to be adjusted in future updates.
Winds out of the ENE to NE at 5-15 kts. Still could see 20-30 kt gusts across MVY/ACK.

Friday...High confidence in trends, moderate in timing.

Widespread VFR after any stratus/fog burns off by roughly mid to late AM. Though may not be until the afternoon for ACK. Winds out of the ENE to NE at 5-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts across the Cape/Islands.

Friday Night...Moderate confidence.

VFR for most with increasing mid/high clouds. The only exception is across eastern MA, but especially SE MA where MVFR/IFR stratus/fog spreads in late. NE winds at 5-15 kts.

KBOS TAF...moderate afterward.

Prolonged onshore flow will advect IFR to LIFR stratus into southeast MA areas south of the terminal overnight. While there is a chance that these conditions make it far enough north/west to impact the terminal, odds are low that this happens.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

VFR, but borderline MVFR/VFR ceilings may spread in late.
Should see this lift to VFR early on Fri as the boundary layer grows.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Sunday through Tuesday Night: VFR.

Wednesday: Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight...High confidence.

Rain tapering off across the southern waters north to south for most before midnight, though the far outer southern waters may not be until daybreak. Winds ENE to NE at 10-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts gradually easing heading into Fri AM. Patchy to areas of stratus/fog with visibility's of 1/2 to 4 SM. Could even see some spot where fog is dense at times.

Friday... High Confidence.

Any pockets of fog burning off by mid to late Fri AM. E/ENE winds 15-20 kt with 20-25 kt gusts. Seas remain elevated across the outer waters, so the SCA remains.

Friday Night...High confidence.

Winds remain out of the NE at 10-20 kts. Could see a return of stratus/fog across the waters late. Visibilities of 1-4 SM with the lowest across the eastern waters. Seas remain elevated so have extended the SCA through the period.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Sunday through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday through Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ232- 236.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ235-237.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ250- 254>256.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 8 mi51 min 56°F 55°F29.86
NBGM3 13 mi51 min E 13G21 57°F 29.89
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 22 mi31 min NE 21G27 55°F 55°F4 ft29.8554°F
44090 22 mi51 min 54°F 53°F2 ft
44085 26 mi81 min 53°F 51°F5 ft
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 26 mi81 min NE 21G23 54°F 29.86
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 27 mi51 min 57°F 55°F29.91
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 28 mi51 min NE 8G9.9 57°F 29.90
FRXM3 28 mi51 min 57°F 53°F
PRUR1 34 mi51 min 57°F 54°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 36 mi96 min ESE 11 57°F 29.8954°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 36 mi51 min NE 8G14 57°F 29.91
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 37 mi51 min N 12G16 55°F 57°F29.90
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 37 mi51 min NE 8.9G15 58°F 53°F29.88
CHTM3 38 mi51 min 53°F 53°F29.89
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 39 mi51 min ENE 15G21 53°F 58°F29.85
PDVR1 40 mi51 min N 8G15 57°F 29.8853°F
PVDR1 40 mi51 min N 5.1G9.9 56°F 29.9353°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 40 mi51 min NNE 13G17 57°F 29.89
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 41 mi51 min N 8G12 56°F 55°F29.92
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 47 mi71 min 51°F4 ft
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 49 mi31 min NNE 9.7G12 53°F 53°F3 ft29.9452°F


Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KFMH CAPE COD COAST GUARD AIR STATION,MA 8 sm35 minENE 2010 smOvercast55°F52°F88%29.88
KEWB NEW BEDFORD RGNL,MA 16 sm27 minNE 08G1710 smOvercast57°F54°F88%29.89
KMVY MARTHA'S VINEYARD,MA 17 sm14 minENE 21G314 smOvercast Lt Rain Mist 55°F55°F100%29.85
KPYM PLYMOUTH MUNI,MA 19 sm28 minENE 0910 smMostly Cloudy54°F52°F94%29.90
KHYA BARNSTABLE MUNIBOARDMAN/POLANDO FIELD,MA 20 sm24 minENE 08G1910 smOvercast55°F52°F88%29.86
Link to 5 minute data for KFMH


Wind History from FMH
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Chappaquoit Point, West Falmouth Harbor, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts
   
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Chappaquoit Point
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Thu -- 02:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:14 AM EDT     3.25 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:25 AM EDT     0.87 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:48 PM EDT     3.39 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:22 PM EDT     1.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Chappaquoit Point, West Falmouth Harbor, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts, Tide feet
12
am
1.7
1
am
2.3
2
am
2.9
3
am
3.2
4
am
3.1
5
am
2.6
6
am
1.9
7
am
1.4
8
am
1
9
am
0.9
10
am
0.9
11
am
1
12
pm
1.4
1
pm
1.9
2
pm
2.7
3
pm
3.2
4
pm
3.4
5
pm
3.1
6
pm
2.5
7
pm
1.8
8
pm
1.4
9
pm
1.1
10
pm
1
11
pm
1


Tide / Current for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
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Thu -- 01:30 AM EDT     3.23 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:43 AM EDT     -0.14 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:38 AM EDT     -3.84 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:54 AM EDT     0.02 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:16 PM EDT     3.64 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:39 PM EDT     -0.18 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:16 PM EDT     -3.58 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:31 PM EDT     0.16 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current, knots
12
am
2.8
1
am
3.2
2
am
3.2
3
am
2.9
4
am
2.1
5
am
-1.4
6
am
-3
7
am
-3.7
8
am
-3.8
9
am
-3.4
10
am
-2.4
11
am
0.7
12
pm
2.6
1
pm
3.4
2
pm
3.6
3
pm
3.6
4
pm
3.2
5
pm
2.2
6
pm
-1.6
7
pm
-3.1
8
pm
-3.6
9
pm
-3.4
10
pm
-2.9
11
pm
-1.7


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Boston, MA,




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