Thursday, August13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kensington, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:56AMSunset 7:54PM Thursday August 13, 2020 1:32 PM EDT (17:32 UTC) Moonrise 12:33AMMoonset 3:39PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 113 Pm Edt Thu Aug 13 2020
This afternoon..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and slight chance of tstms.
Tonight..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..NE winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 113 Pm Edt Thu Aug 13 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A slow moving cold front will remain near the waters this afternoon, then push farther south tonight through Saturday as high pressure tries to build from the north. The high may move east on Sunday, allowing a warm front to approach, followed by a cold front on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kensington, CT
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location: 41.65, -72.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 131413 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1013 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

SYNOPSIS. It will remain quite warm today and Friday, but less humid as the frontal boundary pushes south of New England. High pressure building across the Canadian Maritimes will result in cooler temperatures this weekend especially across eastern New England. Low pressure may bring a period of showers sometime Sunday into Monday if it tracks far enough north. Regardless, expect mainly dry and seasonably warm afternoons Tuesday and Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

1015 AM Update .

Not much change from previous forecast. Frontal boundary across coastal CT into southern RI and southeast MA combined with weak mid level short wave over eastern PA will provide weak synoptic and frontal scale forcing for a band of showers across this region. The boundary may sag south this afternoon, thus band of showers may shift to the Cape and Islands then. Less instability than yesterday so any embedded lightning will be very isolated if any at all.

Otherwise, on the north side of this boundary dry weather will prevail today along with sunshine thru clouds at times. More importantly slightly cooler and less humid airmass on the north side of this boundary ovespreading northern MA into northern portions of CT/RI via north-northeast flow. Dew pts falling into the upper 50s across this area late this morning. Enjoy! Meanwhile south of the boundary dew pts remain in the low 70s across Cape Cod and the Islands.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/.

Tonight:

With surface high to our north, expect a night of quiet weather with comfortable dew points away from the immediate coast. Expect lows in the low to mid 60s, with the exception of upper 50s in the high terrain except for upper 60s to low 70s in the urban centers and coastal areas. And like previous nights, patchy fog is possible especially over southeast MA including Cape Cod and the islands. However, expect fog and low stratus coverage to be less extensive thanks to subsidence and predominant northerly flow.

Friday:

Friday looks to be a tad cooler than Thursday with 850mb temperatures falling to +14C. With an inverted 500mb trough extending into New England and an increasing baroclinic gradient, expect northeast flow to increase across our area. Temperatures wise, expect highs over Eastern MA and RI to top out in the upper 70s to low 80s while interior MA and CT top out in the mid 80s thanks to downsloping effect. Moreover, the differential terrain heating will result in better chances of isolated showers and thunderstorms towards the Berkshires East Slopes and the CT River valley. Otherwise, expect a mostly dry and seasonable day with a welcome break from the recent oppressive heat and humidity. Enjoy!

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/.

Highlights .

* Cooler this weekend especially across eastern New England

* Best chance for a period of showers will be sometime Sun into Mon if low pressure tracks far enough north

* Mainly dry and seasonably warm afternoons next Tue into Wed

Details .

Saturday .

Surface high pressure building over the Canadian Maritimes will combined with a distant offshore low pressure system. The result will be a modest northeast breeze and cooler temperatures than what we have recently experienced. Highs mainly in the 70s to the lower 80s; with coolest temps along the coast and mildest readings in the CT River Valley.

Northeast low level flow and some northern stream shortwave energy may generate a few brief spot showers Saturday, especially near the coast but dry weather should dominate. The 00z NAM is an outlier indicating a soaking rain across eastern MA/RI with low pressure much closer to the coast. We feel this is a fairly low probability at this point and this solution does not have support from the EPS/GEFS Ensembles.

Sunday and Monday .

High pressure moves east of the Canadian Maritimes as low pressure approaches from the southwest. There are some significant model differences in the track of this low pressure system. The GFS/CMC and many of its ensembles indicate a further north track, bringing a period of widespread showers to the region sometime Sun afternoon into Mon. Meanwhile, the ECMWF/UKMET keep the low far enough south where mainly dry weather will prevail with just a few brief spot showers. It is still too early to determine the outcome, so we will need to await further model runs and trends over the next day or two.

Temperatures Sun and Mon will be determined by what we discussed in the previous paragraph. Thinking highs on Sunday will mainly be in the 70s with onshore flow. Temps on Monday a bit more uncertain and clouds/wind direction will determine if highs are mainly in the 70s or reach into the lower to middle 80s with more sunshine.

Tuesday and Wednesday .

Overall, limited forcing should result in dry weather dominating with seasonably warm afternoon temperatures.

AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

15Z TAF Update: not much change from 12z TAFs. Slow moving boundary over coastal CT/RI into southeast MA which will remain the focus for showers today. Otherwise dry weather prevails across northern CT/RI/MA along with light NE flow. Forecast confidence remains high.

================================================================

Tonight: High confidence.

Mostly VFR conditions with light and variable winds. Exception might be ACK terminal, where low clouds and fog could redevelop for a time tonight.

Friday: High confidence.

VFR conditions with slight chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms in Western MA and CT. NE winds at 5 to 10 kt.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/ .

Friday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA.

Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

MARINE. Winds and seas remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Friday. A stalled front may bring showers and an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/ .

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Frank/Chai NEAR TERM . Frank/Nocera/Chai SHORT TERM . Chai LONG TERM . Frank AVIATION . Frank/Nocera/Chai MARINE . Frank/Chai


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 27 mi44 min SE 7 G 9.9 77°F 80°F1018.8 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 40 mi44 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 73°F 79°F1019 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 41 mi44 min S 6 G 7 78°F 73°F1019 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hartford, Hartford-Brainard Airport, CT8 mi39 minNNW 510.00 miOvercast86°F62°F45%1018.9 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT10 mi39 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy85°F62°F46%1018.9 hPa
Windsor Locks, Bradley International Airport, CT20 mi41 minN 510.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F60°F44%1019.1 hPa
Oxford, Waterbury-Oxford Airport, CT23 mi41 minSE 410.00 miA Few Clouds81°F64°F58%1021 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT23 mi37 minSSE 69.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F69°F74%1020 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHFD

Wind History from HFD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE3N5NE3SE3S7CalmCalmCalmNE5N3N6N5N5N3N3N4N6N7N5N6N5NE5NW5
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S9S8S9S8S6S6S7S5SW4S43W3CalmCalm5N8CalmE55
2 days agoS3S5SW7W8W10SW5NW7S4S5S4S5S4S4S5SE3CalmCalmS3S5S5S5S766

Tide / Current Tables for Rocky Hill, Connecticut
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Rocky Hill
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:31 AM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:07 AM EDT     1.68 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:37 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:31 PM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:28 PM EDT     2.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.51.31.10.80.60.60.91.31.61.71.61.51.31.210.80.70.71.11.622.22.2

Tide / Current Tables for Portland, Connecticut
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Portland
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:15 AM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:14 AM EDT     1.84 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:37 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:15 PM EDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:35 PM EDT     2.41 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.41.10.80.60.71.11.41.71.81.81.61.41.210.80.70.81.21.72.12.42.42.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.