Sunday, August18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Glastonbury Center, CT

Version 3.4
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Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 7:48PM Sunday August 18, 2019 3:53 AM EDT (07:53 UTC) Moonrise 9:38PMMoonset 8:45AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1053 Pm Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
Overnight..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers and tstms. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..W winds around 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1053 Pm Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front passes tonight as high pressure remains to the northeast. A wave of low pressure passes south of the area Sunday. Meanwhile, a weak cold front drops into the area Monday night and returns north as a warm front on Tuesday. Another cold front approaches Wednesday and moves through Wednesday night. High pressure then builds in for the remainder of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glastonbury Center CDP, CT
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location: 41.66, -72.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 180659
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
259 am edt Sun aug 18 2019

Synopsis
Very warm and humid weather will persist through midweek along
with showers or thunderstorms at times. A cold front will cross
the region later in the week followed by cooler and drier
conditions.

Near term through today
3 am update:
last of showers was moving off CAPE ann while other showers storms
were moving SE off long island ny. Airmass has stabilized for
the time being so no additional activity is expected this
morning.

Plentiful low level moisture and light winds has led to areas of
dense fog, especially along ri ma south coast including CAPE cod
and islands. We will issue a dense fog advisory for these areas
through 9 am, since observations and webcams indicate the dense
fog is fairly widespread. Elsewhere, fog will be more patchy in
nature, mainly affecting areas where it rained last night.

Weak front drops SE across region early this morning, then
returns N as a warm front this afternoon. Cross sections
indicate fog low clouds will burn off quickly by mid to late
morning, except early this afternoon on parts of CAPE cod and
nantucket. Models show potential for good instability this
afternoon as temperatures rise well into 80s and dewpoints hold
in lower 70s. MLCAPE should reach as high as 2000 j kg but mid
level lapse rates are weak and 0-3km shear is a bit lower than
yesterday, only around 20kt. While main synoptic scale forcing
will be located to our west near the approaching short wave,
combination of instability and some lift is expected to lead to
scattered showers and storms, especially west of worcester
county. Individual pulse storms may be able to form small bows
or line segments with potential for isolated wind damage in
stronger storms, as well as localized minor flooding. Href shows
this scenario well, keeping higher probs for stronger updraft
helicity to our west.

Short term tonight through 6 pm Monday
3 am update:
as we saw last night, showers and storms will linger into
evening due to lingering instability, although threat of strong
or isolated severe storms should diminish quickly around sunset.

Another warm and muggy night is ahead along with return of low
clouds and fog, which may be dense again along south coast, cape
cod, and islands. Lows only fall back into mid 60s to lower 70s.

Next short wave and weakening front approach sne Monday. Temps
aloft become a bit warmer which supports a hot and humid day
with highs in 80s to around 90, and heat index values of up to
105. Later shifts will need to consider heat advisories for
parts of area.

While this will also lead to higher CAPE values, these
warmer temps aloft should help keep a lid on organized shower
or thunderstorm activity, although we should still see a few
storms try to develop later in the day. Despite weak mid level
lapse rates and weak shear, higher CAPE may lead to a few strong
storms.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
Guidance shows ridging over the southern usa, shifting to the SW us
during wed-fri as a hudson bay trough deepens and extends southward
into the eastern u.S. Sne remains under the influence of decent mid-
level flow, steering a series of shortwaves in our direction thru
mid-week. Exact timing is uncertain on the shortwaves passing thru,
but with increased moisture, each will have the ability to produce
some showers and possibly some thunderstorms to our area.

A cold front pushes south towards into our area Monday
night Tuesday. However there is model uncertainty on whether or not
the front pushes south of sne, at least for a period of time, or if
it stalls over our area. If the 12z NAM solution pans out, we could
get a brief reprieve on shower potential during Tuesday. However
because of the uncertainty, we will have a continued risk for
showers and thunderstorms during this timeframe. The front should
move back north of our area as a warm front during Tuesday
night Wednesday, which will keep or bring back an unstable airmass
over our area.

Then as the upper trough deepens and pushes short wave energy thru
the eastern great lakes region, a cold front will pass thru our
area. The cold frontal passage should pass thru our area during thu.

The approach and passage of this front will likely bring our
greatest chance for showers and thunderstorms for the week.

High pressure builds in from the west for fri-sat. The base of the
upper trough may lag behind, which could keep a cold pool over new
england on Friday. With much drier air in place, model QPF is
lacking, and for now will continue with this dry forecast. By
Saturday the upper trough should be to our east, with dry conditions
prevailing.

Until the cold front pushes east of our region on thu, it will be
very warm and humid. Dewpoints will remain in the mid 60s to low
70s, with relief from the humidity thu-fri. With temperatures rising
to around 90 degrees early next week, we may need heat advisories
for a time.

Aviation 07z Sunday through Thursday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday ... Moderate confidence.

Widespread ifr lifr through sunrise in low clouds and fog.

Conditions improve toVFR 12z-15z except closer to 18z on cape
cod and islands. Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop
during afternoon, mainly along and NW of a line from bdl-orh-
lwm.

Return to ifr lifr in low clouds and fog tonight, especially in
ri and E ma, as showers storms subside. Repeat for Monday with
improvement toVFR by 15z-18z then another round of scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence in taf. Conditions should
lower to lifr for a few hours before sunrise.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence in taf. Timing of ifr
conditions may be too soon.

Outlook Monday night through Thursday ... Moderate confidence.

Monday night:VFR. Slight chance shra, isolated tsra.

Tuesday:VFR. Chance shra, slight chance tsra.

Tuesday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Chance
shra, slight chance tsra, patchy br.

Wednesday:VFR. Chance shra, slight chance tsra.

Wednesday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Chance
shra, slight chance tsra, patchy br.

Thursday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance shra,
slight chance tsra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday ... High confidence.

Light S SW flow and flat seas will prevail through Monday as a
series of fronts weaken as they reach the coastal waters.

Pattern favors the usual increase in winds and seas this
afternoon and Monday afternoon on nearshore south coastal
waters with gusts of 15-20kt and seas locally 2 or 3 ft.

Main concern will be areas of dense fog this morning and again
late tonight and Monday morning.

Outlook Monday night through Thursday ... Moderate confidence.

Monday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Tuesday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Tuesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Wednesday through Wednesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas
of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance
of thunderstorms.

Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of
rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... Dense fog advisory until 9 am edt this morning for maz020>024.

Ri... Dense fog advisory until 9 am edt this morning for riz004>008.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Belk jwd
near term... Jwd
short term... Jwd
long term... Belk
aviation... Belk jwd
marine... Belk jwd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 35 mi54 min Calm G 1.9 72°F 70°F1015.3 hPa (-0.8)
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 38 mi24 min NW 2.9 G 2.9 71°F 990.5 hPa70°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 45 mi60 min NE 1.9 G 1.9 72°F 75°F1015.3 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hartford, Hartford-Brainard Airport, CT5 mi2 hrsN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy71°F69°F94%1015.5 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT15 mi2 hrsN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy70°F68°F93%1015.6 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT20 mi79 minN 02.50 miFog/Mist70°F69°F100%1015.9 hPa
Windsor Locks, Bradley International Airport, CT20 mi2 hrsN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F66°F93%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHFD

Wind History from HFD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalm33S4S46S6S11S8S8S7S7S7NW11
G20
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1 day agoSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmS3S7SE7SE6S8S10S7SE6S7S7SE3SE4S4S4SE3
2 days agoCalmCalmN4N3N5N63CalmCalm3S55S5S10S10S10S8S6SE7CalmS3CalmCalmSE3

Tide / Current Tables for Rocky Hill, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Tide / Current Tables for Portland, Connecticut
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Portland
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Sun -- 03:27 AM EDT     2.46 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:44 AM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:55 PM EDT     2.36 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:36 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:03 PM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.72.22.42.42.21.81.410.70.40.30.71.31.92.22.42.21.91.61.20.90.60.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.