Friday, May29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fort Jones, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:36AMSunset 8:40PM Friday May 29, 2020 6:06 PM PDT (01:06 UTC) Moonrise 11:21AMMoonset 12:50AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ450 Pt St George To Cape Mendocino Out 10 Nm- 209 Pm Pdt Fri May 29 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 pm pdt this evening...
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 15 kt. Waves N 7 ft at 7 seconds...and W 6 ft at 13 seconds. Slight chance of tstms.
Sat..W winds 5 to 15 kt. Waves nw 7 ft at 12 seconds...and sw 2 ft at 16 seconds. Showers.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves nw 5 ft at 11 seconds... And sw 2 ft at 16 seconds. Chance of showers.
Sun..N winds 5 to 15 kt. Waves N 7 ft at 5 seconds...and sw 2 ft at 15 seconds.
Sun night..N winds 5 to 15 kt. Waves N 6 ft at 9 seconds.
Mon..N winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves nw 6 ft at 8 seconds.
Tue..N winds 5 to 15 kt. Waves nw 6 ft at 8 seconds.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves N 6 ft at 6 seconds.
PZZ400 209 Pm Pdt Fri May 29 2020
Synopsis for northern california waters..Fresh to strong northerly winds and steep seas will persist in the offshore waters while southerly winds will expand in the inner waters. There is also a nw swell moving through. Northerly winds and steep seas will settle down over the weekend, however isolated Thunderstorms will be possible Friday night and Saturday morning. Northerly winds will increase again next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fort Jones, CA
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location: 41.67, -122.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 292131 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 231 PM PDT Fri May 29 2020

SHORT TERM. Through Monday Afternoon . Elevated cloud cover has squashed much of the expected CU buildup so far this afternoon. There has been more and more development in the past hour along the Cascades near Crater Lake and will begin to build as the cirrus moves out, and the environment becomes more dynamically favored. In Siskiyou county, the cirrus has done a lot to stunt CU buildup, as none is currently visible on satellite.

After discussing the potential flooding Saturday morning an Hydrologic outlook was issued. The outlook highlights the threat for localized urban flooding, and significant rises of streams, also bring localized flood concerns. This product is viewable from our web page as, Hydrologic Outlook, next to the point and click. The decision was brought on do to the strong southerly flow focusing the heaviest precipitation from the Cascades to the coast. Convective allowing models (CAMs) also point towards embedded convection within the broader precipitation. While rain rates are expected to generally be 0.25"/hr, any embedded convection can result in rain rates increasing to 2+ inches per hour and is the root to many localized flooding concerns. Confidence is low to moderate, so be aware when traveling and if flooding does occur do not try to cross it on foot or in a vehicle; turn around, don't drown.

East of the Cascades, there is high confidence for thunderstorms, with the possibility that a few become severe. These storms will be fast moving to the north, north east. The threat of severe storms will peak early Saturday morning, before around 10AM PDT. Isolated thunderstorms may still be in the area, but the severe potential is near zero. During this time surface winds are expected to peak around 25-30kt sustained, with gusts to 50+ kt at the ridges. Further enhancement of these winds is possible in thunderstorm outflow. If you are in the area and observe hail of any size or wind damage, please call or message us on social media to submit the report.

The region stabilizes after the low moves north of SW Oregon Sunday morning, but light showers are expected to persists along higher elevation. Short wave activity and solar heating will reinvigorate thunderstorm potential, mainly along the Cascades, but could not rule out the Siskiyous at this time. Light showers are expected to continue into into monday from the Cascades, east. -Miles

LONG TERM. (Monday night through Friday) . The general consensus is for the upper trough off the California coast to become split off from the main flow and move south off the California Coast Monday night through Thursday. Therefore, we could catch a break in the weather Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. In addition, the majority of the individual ensemble members (GFS and ECMWF) show no measurable precipitation for the past few model runs. Thus, Confidence is becoming higher for drier conditions Tuesday-Thursday. Pops have been reduced during this time period and may need to be reduced even further should all the data continues to support dry conditions. Also max temperatures were adjusted higher.

Friday, it gets a little more murky, both the operational ECMWF and GFS show an upper trough approaching from the Pacific but differ with the strength (the GFS bring stronger). Either way, it will draw the cutoff upper low in southern California north to northeast which could result in some cooling and a better chance for showers towards the end of the week mainly east of the Cascades. The majority of the individual GFS ensemble members show dry conditions. However several of the ECMWF members do show measurable precipitation. -Petrucelli

AVIATION. For the 29/18Z TAF Cycle . VFR conditions across the area with local MVFR cigs along the coast will prevail through this evening. There is also a slight chance for thunderstorms across inland areas this afternoon and this evening. These thunderstorms will have VFR ceilings, yet visibilities will likely drop under some of the heavier downpours. Tonight, expect increasing showers and a chance for thunderstorms across the area, resulting in areas MVFR cigs and local IFR cigs. MVFR/IFR is most likely at the coast and west of the Cascades tonight. Saturday morning, widespread showers and continued chances for thunderstorms are expected with MFR cigs/vis becoming widespread and local IFR. Moderate to heavy showers are likely, especially from the Cascades west and in thunderstorms. Thunderstorms that develop today through Saturday may be strong with heavy downpours, gusty winds and hail.

-CC

MARINE. Updated 200 PM PDT Friday 29 May 2020 . Gusty north winds and steep to very steep wind-driven seas will continue today through Saturday morning. Seas will increase this afternoon and this evening as building west swell combines with wind waves, resulting in high and very steep seas with short period wind wave dominated seas. Seas and northerly winds will lower Saturday as a low moves into the waters. Look for widespread moderate to heavy showers tonight through Saturday. Additionally, there is a chance for thunderstorms tonight. Strong, gusty north winds will redevelop Sunday afternoon and increase early next week. This is expected to bring another round of steep seas to the waters with very steep seas possible for areas south of Cape Blanco.

-CC

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 8 PM PDT Saturday for ORZ030-031.

CA . Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 8 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ085.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 72 mi49 min S 8 G 9.9 55°F 58°F1010.2 hPa
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 83 mi27 min NNW 18 G 21 52°F1010.6 hPa
HBYC1 - 9418767 - North Spit, CA 96 mi91 min 55°F1011.9 hPa

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montague Siskiyou County Airport, CA21 mi74 minN 010.00 miFair94°F44°F18%1006.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSIY

Wind History from SIY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN11NW7N9W13SE3CalmS3CalmN5CalmNE6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4Calm4S44NW4CalmSW3
1 day agoN12N14N16N8N8N8N7NE5NE7NE6CalmCalmCalmN333Calm5W5--NW4Calm5W6
2 days agoN13N11N8N10NE7N10N7N8N5NE4NE6NE3E4NW34543CalmCalmW4CalmE33

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:55 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:32 AM PDT     5.73 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:45 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:42 AM PDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 12:26 PM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:47 PM PDT     5.62 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:30 PM PDT     First Quarter
Fri -- 08:43 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.43.94.65.25.75.75.24.331.70.5-0.2-0.30.21.22.43.74.85.55.65.34.63.93.2

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California (2) (expired 1989-12-31)
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:55 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:33 AM PDT     5.73 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:45 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:42 AM PDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 12:26 PM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:46 PM PDT     5.64 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:30 PM PDT     First Quarter
Fri -- 08:43 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.33.84.55.25.75.75.24.331.70.6-0.2-0.30.21.22.43.74.85.55.65.34.63.83.2

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.