Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pocasset, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 5:23PM Thursday February 20, 2020 1:24 PM EST (18:24 UTC) Moonrise 6:00AMMoonset 3:26PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 116 Pm Est Thu Feb 20 2020
This afternoon..W winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat and Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun through Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Pm Est Thu Feb 20 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A large high pres system over the midwest will slowly build east through Fri, passing south of the waters this weekend. The high will continue to move east and away from our waters early next week as low pres over the southern plains slowly lifts northeast. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pocasset, MA
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location: 41.68, -70.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 201812 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 112 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will bring dry but cold weather through Friday before above normal temperatures return this weekend. Next chance for wet weather is later Monday into Tuesday, with weather pattern remaining unsettled into the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/.

1 PM Update:

CU field beginning to become more widespread as short wave approaches from the west. Albany radar picking up on scattered snow showers/flurries with this short wave into western MA. An isolated snow shower or flurry may spill into the region this afternoon. Otherwise dry cold weather prevails.

In addition cirrus shield overspreading the south coast. Temps climbing into the upper 20s and lower 30s at 1 pm. Enough of a WNW breeze to add to the chilly conditions. No major changes with this update given previous forecast verifying nicely.

Prior discussion .

A mid level moisture starved shortwave approaches from the west today. The result will be a scattered to broken deck of mid/high level cloudiness today, but still expect partial sunshine too. We can not rule out a brief flurry or two, but felt it was not worth inserting into the forecast. As for temperatures, it will be colder than yesterday but with much less wind as high pressure building in from the west. Afternoon high temps should reach the middle to upper 20s across the high terrain with lower to middle 30s elsewhere. Northwest wind gusts of 20 mph are still expected at times, but not nearly as strong as yesterday.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/. Tonight .

The mid level trough axis moves crosses our region. This allows clearing skies and very cold temperatures. The exception will be across the Cape/Nantucket where low level flow turns NNW. This will result in some ocean effect cloudiness and perhaps a brief passing flurry or two. The main story though will be the very cold temperatures. Lows should bottom out in the single digits across parts of interior MA, to mainly the lower to middle teens elsewhere.

Friday .

High pressure in control will result in mostly sunny skies, light winds and chilly temperatures. The exception will be parts of the Cape/Nantucket where some ocean effect clouds may linger into a good part of the day. May even be a flurry or two during the morning, but nothing more than that. Highs will range from the upper 20s across the high terrain, to the lower to middle 30s elsewhere. Winds will be rather light, so that will take the bite of out of the cold during the afternoon under the increasing late February sun angle.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Highlights .

* Tranquil conditions with above-avg temps for the weekend.

* Next chance for precipitation is late Mon - Tues. Looks to be mainly a rain event.

* Large uncertainty, but pattern change with coastal storminess potential around midweek?

Details .

Friday Night through Sunday Night:

After a couple days of below-average temperatures, guidance continues to offer a tranquil, pleasant weekend with temperatures moderating back to above-average levels. High pressure over the Southern Appalachians builds eastward into the waters east of the Carolinas through the weekend, which will impart a mild southwest flow across Southern New England.

Expect plenty of sunshine with dry conditions and good diurnal ranges. W-SW breezes will help boost temperatures through downslope effects as well. Highs back in the upper 30s to mid 40s Saturday, and well into the 40s to lower 50s for Sunday. Lows Saturday night in the 20s to near 30, with mid-20s to mid-30s lows for Sunday night.

Monday:

This period appears to be coming into greater focus, with earlier model runs indicating a return to unsettled weather as deamplifying shortwave energy ejecting from the Four Corners region Sunday would move across the Plains and into the Northeast late Monday. However, recent guidance including the 00z NWP suite now are a bit slower with the approaching wave and related onset of showers. With guidance trending a bit slower with precipitation, offered to undercut NBM PoPs for Monday towards dry weather for the first part of the day. Will be increased mid to high clouds though, with highs upper 40s to mid 50s with 925 mb temps around 0 to +1C.

Monday Night into Tuesday Night:

00z NWP and ensembles starting to key in on late Mon night/early Tues being when light showers begin to overspread the forecast area. Will see lowering/thickening cloudiness through the evening with a tapered increase in PoPs to slight/chance range from SW-NE. That said, confidence in onset timing remains on the lower side - especially as days of dry weather may mean some dry air to be overcome at first. Further refinement likely to the start time of showers as subsequent guidance comes in.

Tuesday does look active/unsettled, though continued variation in guidance exits on the evolution of those details which renders confidence fairly low on details. GFS indicates a N-to-S frontal passage with anomalous pre-frontal meridional flow suggesting a moisture-laden front, even as parent low tracks through the St. Lawrence Valley. The Canadian GEM shows light showers ahead of a warm front early Tues, before a larger slug of moisture associated with secondary low development passing just E of the 40N/70W benchmark Tues night. Could see an interior/NW MA snow to rain situation evolve in that scenario, with rain elsewhere. ECMWF generally looks similar to its 12z run but is a bit slower. Will carry high chance to lower-end likely for Tue and closer to chance for Tues nite.

Midweek:

500 mb pattern becomes pretty convoluted/complex around midweek, with indications of a pattern change towards weakly negative East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) conditions indicated in the ECMWF ensemble.

A deep mid-level longwave trough evolves across the Great Lakes and Northeast Wed into Thurs, with complicated interaction of shortwave troughs embedded in the longwave rendering confidence pretty low on details/evolution. With that said, of note is the coastal low which evolves from the coastal mid-Atlantic northward towards coastal New England late Wed nite into Thurs. Prior runs of the ECMWF were hinting at this period being one to watch for coastal low pressure, and now the GFS indicates an approximately similar solution. Uncertainty's large in this period with complex interaction of shortwaves aloft heavily influencing what ultimately transpires, but an interior wintry event around Thursday is a possible outcome and is something to watch in the coming days.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18Z TAF Update . High confidence thru at least 12z Saturday

Thru 00z . VFR and dry but cigs BKN050-060 especially northern MA and northern CT into northern RI. Isolated snow shower or flurry possible especially western MA into northwest CT.

After 00z . VFR with decreasing clouds. However the exception will be outer Cape Cod and Nantucket where MVFR cigs develop in response to winds becoming NNE 10-20 kt. A few ocean effect snow showers or flurries possible across this area.

Friday . MVFR cigs over Cape Cod and Nantucket during the morning along with a few snow showers/flurries possible. Otherwise VFR, dry weather and light/variable winds.

Friday night . VFR, dry and light southwest winds.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF. Period of VFR cigs BKN050-060 19Z-01Z this afternoon/early evening.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday through Monday/ .

Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday Night through Monday: VFR.

MARINE. 10 am update .

Let the SCA across the eastern MA waters expire given buoys indicate wind and seas less than 5 ft and 25 kt. This decreasing trend continues into this afternoon. Earlier discussion below.

=================================================================

Today . High confidence. Lingering marginal small craft wind gusts/seas across the eastern waters diminish this morning as high pressure builds in from the west. No marine headlines will be needed by late morning and afternoon, but WNW wind gusts around 20 knots will continue.

Tonight and Friday . High confidence. NNW winds will gust to 20 knots tonight into Friday morning and then gradually diminish as cold advection beings to weaken. We can not rule out some marginal 5 foot seas flirting with the southeast waters for a time, but overall winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory criteria. We do expect some light freezing spray later tonight into early Friday morning.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/ .

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Sunday through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Frank/Loconto NEAR TERM . Frank/Nocera/Loconto SHORT TERM . Frank LONG TERM . Loconto AVIATION . Frank/Nocera/Loconto MARINE . Frank/Loconto


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 8 mi100 min W 7 1030 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 11 mi55 min 31°F 38°F1028.9 hPa
44090 19 mi25 min 40°F2 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 22 mi45 min 1 ft
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 29 mi55 min 1028.9 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 29 mi85 min NW 7 G 8.9 1030.2 hPa (-1.8)
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 29 mi55 min 31°F 1028.8 hPa
FRXM3 30 mi61 min 31°F 8°F
PRUR1 37 mi55 min 32°F 4°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 38 mi100 min NW 6 35°F 1030 hPa8°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 38 mi55 min 34°F 1029.3 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 39 mi55 min 30°F 39°F1028.7 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 39 mi55 min 31°F 39°F1029.2 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 39 mi55 min 31°F 35°F1028.7 hPa
PVDR1 41 mi55 min 33°F 1028.8 hPa6°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 42 mi55 min 33°F 37°F1028.6 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 42 mi61 min 32°F 39°F1029 hPa
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 44 mi35 min WNW 9.7 G 12 27°F 3 ft1028.5 hPa (-2.1)8°F
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 46 mi35 min W 12 G 16 30°F 41°F2 ft1027.7 hPa (-2.6)8°F

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA5 mi30 minNNW 1010.00 miFair32°F3°F29%1028.1 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA17 mi33 minVar 5 G 1410.00 miFair32°F6°F33%1028 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA18 mi29 minNNW 1010.00 miFair33°F9°F36%1027.7 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA19 mi32 minW 8 G 1810.00 miFair32°F5°F32%1028 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA19 mi32 minNW 610.00 miFair32°F7°F35%1028.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFMH

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSE15SE15SE12
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2 days agoN7
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E6NE7NE7NE4NE3NE3NE6--NE6NE6NE6NE6NE6NE6NE6E7E6E9SE8
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Tide / Current Tables for Barlows Landing, Pocasset Harbor, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts
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Barlows Landing
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:00 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:44 AM EST     4.24 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:31 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:25 PM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:26 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:21 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:06 PM EST     3.66 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.51.22.23.34.14.23.72.81.810.40.10.20.61.42.43.33.73.42.61.60.70.2

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:51 AM EST     0.08 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:07 AM EST     3.78 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:00 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:31 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:03 AM EST     -0.17 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:58 AM EST     -4.31 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:20 PM EST     0.02 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:26 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:48 PM EST     4.18 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:21 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:52 PM EST     -0.10 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:33 PM EST     -4.02 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.512.83.53.83.62.90.7-3-4-4.3-4-3.3-1.72.43.54.14.23.92.9-1.1-3.2-3.9-4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.