Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pocasset, MA

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/

925 PM Update...

* Blustery & cold overnight, lows upper teens-lower 20s * Wind Chills Dropping into the single digits to lower teens

Previous forecast is on track. Low pressure east of the Canadian Maritimes coupled with large high pressure near the Ohio Valley will continue to result in a modest pressure gradient overnight. This will continue to generate blustery & cold weather. Overnight low temps should bottom out mainly in the upper teens to the lower 20s. The wind will bring Wind Chills down into the single digits to the lower teens.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Updated: 205 PM Tue

Key Messages:

* Continued blustery and cold.

More of the same for Wed and Wed night as high pressure builds to the Tennessee Valley and maintains a brisk W/NW flow across southern New England. Another blustery day is on tap Wed with frequent 20-30 mph gusts. Pattern favors bands of ocean effect cloudiness/snow showers offshore of Cape Cod and lake effect cloudiness spilling over Berkshires in western MA. Airmass is cold, but not unusually so for mid January, with highs Wed in 20s to lower 30s.

Winds gradually diminish Wed evening and this should allow for some radiational cooling away from coast. Leaned more toward colder MOS guidance for lows Wednesday night with teens for most of SNE, but some single numbers in western MA and closer to 20 near Cape Cod and the Islands.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Updated 205 PM Tue:

Key Messages:

* One final day of below normal temps Thurs.

* Temps modify to near/above normal levels by Fri into the weekend, but likely to be accompanied by a good amt of cloud cover.

* Passing rain/higher elevation snow showers Sat, but monitoring possible storminess around Sun night/Mon.

Details:

Although still sunny and dry, still looking at one final day of below-normal temperatures for Thurs (e.g. highs mid 20s to near freezing). We then transition to a brief warming trend to temps as 500 mb heights rise for Fri into the weekend, although there should be a considerable amt of cloud cover accompanying the moderating temps. By Fri into the weekend highs should reach well into the 30s with a few lower to mid 40s for the weekend. As a deep upper level trough evolves across much of the central and eastern CONUS for Sunday night into Mon, much colder air will then gradually bleed into the region on NW winds.

Overall this forecast period will continue to be a dry one. It's not until the weekend when PoPs increase to higher end of Chance, in response to a weak and progressive vort maxima coming out of the Southern Plains, and a related shield of precip (mainly in form of rain/higher elevation snow showers) spreads into Southern New England. There continue to be indications in the ensembles of low pressure development along the strong baroclinic zone separating the milder air near the coast from the frigid/Arctic air in the east- central CONUS that moves up the eastern seaboard in an anafrontal- type low configuration. This is hinted at more in the international guidance than the GFS. That could bring a potential light- accumulating snow to Southern New England if the international solutions were to be more correct, but there's still a good deal of uncertainty on the timing, location and amplitude of the initiating wave as it comes around the broader longwave trough. Will continue to carry a slight to low Chance mention for Sun night/Mon, but it is otherwise too early to provide specifics with any degree of confidence at this point in time.

AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

00z TAFs Update: High confidence.

Other than SCT-BKN MVFR ocean effect ceilings near HYA/ACK overnight to mid-day Wed, VFR prevails through Wed night. Main issue is continued gusty W/NW winds through Wed, with frequent 25-30kt gusts, although gusts should subside away from coast tonight.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR with gusty WNW winds (gusts upper 20s kt range).

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Thursday: VFR.

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.

Friday: VFR.

Friday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance SHSN.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High- greater than 60 percent.

Updated: 205 PM Tue

High confidence through the end of the week.

High pressure building from the northern Plains to the Tennessee Valley will maintain gusty W/NW winds through Wed evening with frequent 25-30kt gusts and probable light freezing spray nearshore. It's possible there are a few 35kt gusts on outer waters tonight south of the Islands but we don't think it will last long enough to justify Gale Warnings.

Later in the week, high pressure builds over waters with diminishing winds and seas.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of snow showers. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Friday through Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ230- 232>237.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST Wednesday night for ANZ231-251.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ250- 254>256.