Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mentor, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:42AMSunset 4:57PM Saturday December 14, 2019 11:36 PM EST (04:36 UTC) Moonrise 7:29PMMoonset 9:59AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ147 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 1026 Am Est Sat Dec 14 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 pm est this afternoon through Sunday evening...
Rest of today..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots. Patchy fog late this morning, then areas of fog early this afternoon. Patchy fog late. Rain and snow, then rain late. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..West winds to 30 knots. A chance of rain in the evening, then a chance of rain and snow overnight. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Sunday..West winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of rain and snow in the morning. Waves 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday. The water temperature off toledo is 37 degrees, off cleveland 40 degrees, and off erie 38 degrees.
LEZ147 Expires:201912142115;;775075 FZUS51 KCLE 141526 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1026 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ147>149-142115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mentor, OH
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location: 41.69, -81.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 150223 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 923 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure currently over southern New York will continue to move north tonight and deepen rapidly with a secondary cold front moving southeast across the area early tonight. High pressure will build southeast across the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Sunday night. Another low pressure system will move northeast across the Ohio Valley late Monday and Monday night and off the New England coast by Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure will build east across the eastern CONUS Wednesday through Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Update . Have made significant changes to the evening and overnight forecast. Forecast soundings show a loss of ice in the clouds overnight with only supercooled liquid clouds remaining across the region. Overnight forcing is weak which would favor a larger chance that any precip through the late evening and overnight would be drizzle vs snow. As temps drop this would become freezing drizzle. Have already seen pilot reports of icing and and few obs of light rain. Will continue with current advisory headlines across northwest PA and reword text to include more zl and less snow. Will also keep the warning. Although overnight snow will be limited, there is still a window Sunday morning to redevelop snow off the lake with dendrites again favored as colder air deepens. At this time, elsewhere will wait for development and not issue any additional advisories.

Original . A negatively tilted trough will continue to lift north along the northeast CONUS. This trough is responsible for forcing a deep low, currently located over southern New York. This low is expected to continue almost due north (with a slight east component) while undergoing significant cyclogenesis. This has resulted in widespread precipitation, with a rain/snow mix currently across northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. Inland areas of northwest Pennsylvania and parts of inland northeast Ohio have completely transitioned to all snow where surface temperatures are a bit cooler. Precipitation associated with this low pressure will end from west to east early this evening into tonight. Beyond this, lake effect snow will develop tonight as northwest flow aloft continues and temperatures at 850 mb decreases to a minimum of 12 deg Celsius by 15 UTC Sunday. In addition lake effect, brief redevelopment of scattered snow showers may occur across northern Ohio tonight, adding to snow totals. Through 18 UTC Sunday, snow totals across the Ohio lake effect snow belt are expected to be 1 to 4 inches, with highest amounts in hills. Snow totals in northwest Pennsylvania are expected to be 5 to 9 inches with a very sharp gradient along the lakeshore. Gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph may introduce blowing snow and reduced visibility, especially closer to the lakeshore. Because of snow totals, a Winter Storm Warning has been issued for inland Erie County and a Winter Weather Advisory for lakeshore Erie and Crawford Counties, both of which are valid through 18 UTC Sunday.

Light lake effect snow showers may continue into the afternoon but should be over by early Sunday night. High temperatures are expected to be on the cool side, staying right around freezing. Are next system comes in the form of low pressure developing over the lower Mississippi Valley Sunday night. Precipitation associated with this system will approach from the south late Sunday night, likely staying as all snow through Sunday night. There some uncertainty with the onset of snow on Sunday night and the model trend right now is for most of the precipitation to stay to our south. For that reason have stuck with a max 50 PoP through 12 UTC Monday.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Southwesterly flow aloft persists Monday morning through daybreak Tuesday as a trough aloft approaches from the west. Simultaneously, a surface low should track from near AR to near south-central PA, allowing our CWA to remain within the surface low's cold sector. Periods of widespread precipitation associated with warm air advection and isentropic lift are expected on Monday and Monday night. Temperatures at the surface and aloft will be critical in determining precip type(s) at the surface. In general, a rain/snow mix on Monday should change to all snow Monday night. However, periods of sleet and/or freezing rain may also occur and this potential will be watched closely. High temperatures should reach the low to mid 30's on Monday, while low temperatures should reach the mid 20's to lower 30's Monday night.

On Tuesday and Tuesday night, the surface low should continue moving northeastward from near south-central PA to near the Canadian Maritimes, allowing cold air advection to overtake our CWA. Simultaneously, the trough aloft should settle eastward over our CWA and merge with a potent mid- to upper-level low settling southeastward over northern ON. Widespread wraparound snow should end from west to east on Wednesday and transition to multiple bands of lake effect snow across the snowbelt Tuesday night as a westerly flow of progressively colder air crosses Lake Erie. High temperatures in the low to mid 30's on Tuesday should be followed by lows reaching the upper teens or lower 20's Tuesday night.

On Wednesday, northwesterly flow aloft is expected as the mid- to upper-low moves from near Georgian Bay to northern New England and high pressure at the surface and aloft builds from the west. Lake effect snow should continue in the snowbelt as the low-level flow veers from westerly to northwesterly and becomes even colder. Fair weather is expected outside the lake snow. Wednesday will likely be the coldest day of the week, with highs only reaching the 20's.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. High pressure aloft builds eastward over our CWA Wednesday night through Thursday night, causing northwesterly flow aloft to eventually become westerly. Simultaneously, surface high pressure crests over our region. Lingering lake effect snow in the snowbelt should end by daybreak Thursday as the stabilizing high pressure ridge allows lake-induced CAPE to diminish. Otherwise, fair weather is expected across our CWA. Low temperatures in the teens to lower 20's are expected overnight Wednesday night. On Thursday, afternoon highs should reach the upper 20's to mid 30's. Lows should reach the 20's Thursday night.

At this point, odds favor fair weather Friday through Saturday as high pressure ridging at the surface and especially aloft should remain in control over northern OH and northwest PA. Temperatures should moderate during this period, including high temperatures reaching the 30's to lower 40's.

AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/. Expect widespread IFR overnight. In cloud icing can be expected below 5kft with a potential for drizzle and freezing drizzle at the surface. Drier air will move in for Sunday from the west.

OUTLOOK. Non-VFR possible Monday and Tuesday with periods of rain and/or snow. Freezing rain may also be possible on Monday. Non-VFR possible with lake effect snow on Tuesday and Wednesday.

MARINE. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for Lake Erie today into Sunday. Westerly winds as strong as 20 to 25 knots are expected through tonight, resulting in waves as large as 4 to 8 feet, especially east of The Islands. Westerly to southwesterly winds will diminish gradually on Sunday and waves will lower gradually as a northeastward-moving low pressure system pulls away from Lake Erie and high pressure builds from the west. Quieter conditions should affect the lake on Monday, while Small Craft Conditions may return Tuesday into Wednesday as low pressure moves northeastward from the Ohio Valley to Canadian Maritimes Tuesday and then extends a trough over the lake into Wednesday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for PAZ001-003. Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for PAZ002. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Sunday for LEZ147>149. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for LEZ143-144. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Sunday for LEZ145-146.

SYNOPSIS . Saunders NEAR TERM . TK/Saunders SHORT TERM . Jaszka LONG TERM . Jaszka AVIATION . TK/Saunders MARINE . Jaszka


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 6 mi54 min W 22 G 26 37°F 37°F1003.6 hPa36°F
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 19 mi54 min W 18 G 22 37°F 40°F1004.3 hPa32°F
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 23 mi66 min W 16 G 20 39°F
LORO1 48 mi66 min W 18 G 22 37°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH11 mi51 minW 13 G 215.00 miFog/Mist36°F33°F93%1004.1 hPa
Cleveland, Burke Lakefront Airport, OH22 mi43 minW 177.00 miOvercast38°F32°F79%1004.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGF

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5CalmCalmCalmCalmN3N7N10N10N8N10N7NW8
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.