Thursday, January21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mentor, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:44AMSunset 5:28PM Thursday January 21, 2021 9:16 PM EST (02:16 UTC) Moonrise 12:15PMMoonset 1:16AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ147 Willowick To Geneva-on-the Lake Oh-geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh-conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 338 Pm Est Thu Jan 21 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday afternoon...
Tonight..West winds to 30 knots, decreasing to 20 to 25 knots. A slight chance of rain showers early, then a chance of rain and snow showers from late evening on. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow and rain showers in the morning, then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Friday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday. The water temperature off toledo is 33 degrees, off cleveland 36 degrees, and off erie 35 degrees.
LEZ147 Expires:202101220315;;274774 FZUS51 KCLE 212038 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 338 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ147>149-220315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mentor, OH
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location: 41.69, -81.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 220000 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 700 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2021

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure over Ontario will continue to move eastward bringing a cold front across the area tonight. High pressure builds east across the Great Lakes Saturday through Sunday. Low pressure moves east across Ohio Valley on Monday and Monday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Clear skies continue to prevail across much of the area this evening, though some clouds are beginning to fill in across the northern-most portion of the area as low-level moisture associated with a weak trough arrives this evening. As the stronger and more dominate trough swings south through the Great Lakes tonight through tomorrow morning, clouds will become more prevalent across the area. By early tomorrow morning, a strong cold front will march southeast across the lake, with widespread snow shower development expected east of I-71. The likelihood for snow squalls is becoming increasingly more evident across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania tomorrow which could impact the morning commute.

Previous Discussion . Pleasant conditions are being observed this afternoon with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s. This will be rather short-lived as upper-level vorticity and a surface cold front approach the area from the northwest tonight. This will increase cloudiness and result in some light snow showers, mainly across northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. This will add 1-3 inches of snow across Erie County, PA tonight with one inch or less of snow elsewhere.

As the cold front moves southeast across Lake Erie and towards northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania Friday morning, there is some potential for a decent snow squall to persist along the cold front. Some hi-res models are suggesting moderate low-level frontogenesis collocated with marginal instability with the front. Will have to continue to monitor this potential this evening and tonight.

After the cold frontal passage Friday morning, a transition to pure lake effect snow is expected. Temperatures at 850 mb as low as -16 C will be advected across the region, producing moderate lake-induced instability. Limitations to snow totals include a low inversion height (resulting in shallow lake effect bands) and limited moisture. However, still think that the moderately cold airmass with some amount of connection to upstream Great Lakes should result in at least a few more inches of lake effect snow accumulations across the primary snowbelt Friday through Friday night.

With the passage the cold front, temperatures look to become below normal and stay that way through the short term period as northwest flow persists. Temperatures decrease into the mid 20s tonight, remaining that way through the daytime hours as thick lake effect cloud cover and northwest flow prevents temperatures from budging. Temperatures dip down into the teens Friday night.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Any lingering snow showers by Saturday morning will dissipate quickly as high pressure builds east across the Great Lakes Region. Any additional accumulations will be light and mainly confined to inland NW Pennsylvania before drier air wins out. Otherwise low clouds will clear from west to east giving way to periods of sun outside of the snowbelt. High cloud will arrive Saturday night as the ridge builds aloft. The window of clearing will impact low temperatures that could drop quickly during the evening with light winds before clouds thicken. Forecast lows range from the teens to near 20 degrees.

Broad low pressure will approach the Upper Great Lakes on Sunday with southerly flow and warm advection developing. It will take some time for low levels to moisten but can't rule out a stray snow shower or two and will continue with only a low 20-30 pop. Chances for light snow continues continue Sunday night although with some timing questions as a shortwave lifts out of the southwestern states and enhances overrunning.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Better chances for precipitation arrive on Monday as a wave of low pressure moves northeast through the Ohio Valley. Raised pops with 60-70 percent chances focused closer to Central Ohio. Precipitation will likely begin as snow but may mix with or transition to rain during the afternoon across the south as temperatures reach the mid 30s. This will depend on the storm track which we will continue to monitor with regards to precip type and any potential snow accumulations. Coverage of snow will expand again on Monday night as colder air is pulled into the back side of the system. High pressure with a drying trend will resume Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures will remain near seasonal norms during the extended.

AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/. VFR across the TAF sites this evening. Deterioration to widespread MVFR ceilings is expected at all TAF sites by tomorrow morning through the end of the TAF period.

The first place to experience MVFR ceilings will be at ERI over the next several hours as low-level moisture begins to fill in across the area. As widespread MVFR ceilings arrive tonight, a strong cold front will march southeast across the area tomorrow morning, resulting in widespread snow showers which will impact CLE/CAK/YNG/ERI. Some of these snow showers may be on the stronger side, and have the potential to reduce vsbys to IFR, especially at CLE/YNG/ERI. Can't rule out brief vsby drops to LIFR. Otherwise, expect sporadic lake effect snow showers to impact the TAF sites tomorrow, but confidence on location remains low, so have hedged with vcsh at this time. The exception is at ERI, where, after a brief break in the morning, more widespread lake effect snow is expected to develop in the late afternoon.

West to southwest winds are beginning to decrease this evening, though some sporadic gusts of 20 to 25 knots remain. Expect winds to briefly decrease down to the 15 to 20 knot range this evening/overnight, before ramping up to 20 to 25 knots and shifting more northwesterly by tomorrow morning and afternoon behind the cold front.

Outlook . Non-VFR possible with lake effect snow showers through Saturday. Non-VFR possible once again with snow Sunday night through Tuesday, with some mixed precipitation possibly mixing in on Monday.

MARINE. Breezy southwest winds continue on Lake Erie of 15-30 knots will continue tonight tonight ahead of a cold front that will cross the lake early Friday morning. Extended the Small Craft Advisory west of Vermilion where winds will remain in the 20-25 knot range for a few more hours before dropping off by 10 PM tonight. A short window of Small Craft Advisory conditions may return on Friday and will need to consider if another Advisory will be needed. Otherwise the Small Craft Advisories for the remainder of the lake have been extended given a prolonged wind event with winds becoming west and eventually northwest behind the cold front. The Advisory has been extended through 4 AM Saturday from Vermilion to Willowick and through Saturday afternoon as waves are slower to subside east of Willowick to the New York waters.

Improving conditions are expected over the weekend as high pressure builds east across the Great Lakes Region. By early next week we will be watching for increasing northeasterly winds as low pressure moves through the Ohio Valley on Monday. Northeast winds of 20-30 knots may be possible on the north side of this system.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for LEZ147>149. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ142>144. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LEZ145-146.

SYNOPSIS . Saunders NEAR TERM . Kahn/Saunders SHORT TERM . KEC LONG TERM . KEC AVIATION . Kahn MARINE . KEC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 6 mi59 min W 22 G 25 34°F1002.3 hPa
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 19 mi59 min W 20 G 24 38°F1003.8 hPa
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 23 mi107 min W 15 G 20
LORO1 48 mi47 min W 22 G 24 38°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH11 mi32 minW 15 G 2510.00 miMostly Cloudy37°F25°F60%1003.7 hPa
Cleveland, Burke Lakefront Airport, OH22 mi24 minW 23 G 2710.00 miOvercast and Windy39°F28°F65%1004.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGF

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)
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2 days agoSW10W10--SW8------------W11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.