Sunrise 6:23 AM   Sunset 8:22 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 8:09 AM

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LEZ147 Expires:202404290215;;539728 Fzus51 Kcle 281933 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 333 pm edt Sun apr 28 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez145>147-290215- vermilion to avon point oh-avon point to willowick oh- willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh- 333 pm edt Sun apr 28 2024
Tonight - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - South winds 5 to 15 knots. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday night - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Tuesday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Showers likely in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Wednesday through Friday.
the water temperature off toledo is 55 degrees, off cleveland 49 degrees, and off erie 50 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 282308 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 708 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

SYNOPSIS
A stationary boundary to the north of the region will give way to a cold front that will push through the area Monday into Monday night. High pressure Tuesday into Wednesday, followed by a weak cold front later on Wednesday.

Our region will be near the top edge of a large upper level ridge of high pressure that is centered over the southeastern U.S. today and Monday. An area of low pressure over the Central Plains will move northeast into the Upper Midwest Monday. A weak front will move east across the region Monday night into Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
700 PM...Quiet weather is expected through the rest of this evening. Left in mention of an isolated thunderstorm until 9 PM this evening across NW PA, but current satellite imagery favors a mainly dry forecast.

Previous Discussion...Some showers firing along a weak area of surface convergence in the eastern third of the CWA at this hour due to a surface trough, and should be pushing out over the next few hours. This leaves the forecast area largely dry going through tonight and into Monday in the warm sector with the low pressure center and cold front well to the west, although the stationary front to the north may drift southward clipping the NW PA counties with a few more isolated showers this evening and tonight. This frontal system pushes eastward late Monday into Monday night with the next round of showers and storms for the forecast area. Some instability out ahead of the expected convection with the cold front, but it is slightly out of phase with the layer moisture. Only going to get a short window for showers and storms with a fairly progressive line, and behind the cold front, expect the mid and upper levels to dry out significantly. In the meantime, another fairly warm day near the 80F mark for the bulk of the CWA in temperatures in the range of 15 degrees above normal.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Showers are expected for the first half as a cold front associated with a low pressure over the Western Great Lakes region moves east across the area. Showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the boundary, which will further be supported by the area being positioned in the right entrance region of an upper level jet.
Showers will taper from west to east throughout the day Tuesday. As an upper level ridge and associated surface high nudge into the area behind the departing front, conditions will dry out for Tuesday night through Wednesday night. The high pressure will gradually move east, allowing for WAA and increased moisture transport to return across the area. This may result in a few showers late Wednesday night, but with models generally slowing the progression of the system, opted to keep it dry for now with the precipitation chances occurring in the long term period. Temperatures on Tuesday will be in the low to mid 70s, but will climb on Wednesday into the upper 70s to low 80s with that WAA regime becoming established. Both nights will be mild with temperatures dropping into the 50s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Chances of precipitation increase for later this week as an unsettled pattern returns across the US. The key feature driving much of the weather in this period will be an upper level trough developing over the western US and gradually shifting east into the western Great Lakes region before pivoting north. A low pressure system will develop at the surface, extending a boundary just north of the CWA on Thursday. This will allow for continued WAA and moisture advection. Some long range models have marginal diurnal instability developing on Thursday which may result in a few scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially across western counties Thursday and Thursday night. By Friday, the aforementioned trough begins to pivot, likely putting the area under the right entrance region of the upper level jet. This will allow for strong upper level support and showers becoming widespread beginning Friday. These showers will gradually taper from west to east late Friday night into early Saturday as the cold front moves east across the area. After these diminish, the chances of showers and thunderstorms for much of Saturday and Sunday goes down as a ridge builds in again. Temperatures through the period will start hot with highs climbing into the low to mid 80s, but gradually cool to highs in the upper 60s to low 70s by Sunday. Lows will generally linger in the 50s expect for Thursday night when temperatures will only fall into the low 60s.

AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/
VFR across the TAF sites this evening with VFR to persist through the TAF period. Main period to watch will be towards the end of the TAF period for Monday afternoon/evening, particularly across the western TAF sites (TOL/FDY) as a line of showers/thunderstorms approaches from the west. Included vcts for now with likely vcts additions needed eastward in the next update.

Apart from lake breezes at CLE/ERI, winds are generally out of the south to southwest, around 10 knots. Winds will increase again out of the south to southwest by late Monday morning, 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in showers and thunderstorms Monday evening into Tuesday. Non-VFR may return in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday.

MARINE
Southwest flow of 10-15 knots will continue through this evening before high pressure again becomes established over the area tonight and allow for winds to weaken to 5-10 knots. These southwest winds will again increase to 10-15 knots on Monday ahead of an approaching cold front that will move east across the lake Monday night into Tuesday. Before the passage of this boundary, there remains a chance for a weak lake breeze to develop along the western lakeshore.
Behind the cold front, winds will gain more of a westerly component, but remain at 5-10 knots through Tuesday night. High pressure returns on Wednesday with a warm front moving north across the lake on Thursday. This will result in another period of southwesterly flow of 5-10 knots is expected through Thursday before strengthening on Friday to 10-15 knots. Another cold front moves east Friday night into Saturday. No marine headlines are anticipated at this time.

CLIMATE
Forecast high temperatures on Monday may be within a few degrees of the daily record maximums for some climate locations. Here are the historical record high temperatures for Monday, April 29th.

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 04-29 87(1899) 81(1942) 84(1899) 84(1888) 85(1942) 82(1899)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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