Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mentor, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1) Remaining mostly dry today with patchy dense fog possible during the early morning hours today and Sunday.

2) A series of troughs will traverse the region beginning on Sunday, bringing multiple rounds of showers and storms to the area through mid-week. Some storms may be strong to severe with the greatest chance of severe weather on Sunday and Monday.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure exits to the east through the day today. The majority of the forecast area should remain dry, though isolated showers and storms will develop along and east of I-77 as mid to low level moisture increases over an area of isentropic lift. Showers will remain isolated with a few weak thunderstorms possible as instability increases to 300-500 J/kg. Patchy fog remains possible through daybreak today and again overnight tonight into Sunday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Upper level ridge over the western CONUS builds east allowing for an upper trough to deepen across the eastern Great Lakes. Multiple shortwaves will dive southeast over the region bringing the possibility of numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday. Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible Sunday and Monday though there remains a large amount of uncertainty in the location, coverage, and intensity of thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has included the majority of the forecast area in a Day 2 Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather Sunday, particularly Sunday afternoon. Primary hazards in any strong to severe storm on Sunday will be damaging wind gusts and large hail.
Organized severe thunderstorms remain possible Monday afternoon and evening across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley as a potent trough and strong mid-level jet dive across the region. The entire area is in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather for Monday afternoon and evening. Given strong deep layer shear under the upper level jet, a corridor of damaging wind is possible across portions of Northern Ohio. Showers and storms remain possible on Tuesday as the upper level low slowly exits to the east. Trending drier by Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/
VFR. More daytime heating cumulus FL045 expected after 16Z, likely in greater coverage for YNG/ERI. SHRA possible at ERI, and isolated chances but too low for mention at YNG. Surface winds generally WSW/W less than 10kts.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with periodic showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon through Tuesday.

MARINE
Winds transition from the strong ENE flow yesterday to light onshore westerlies today which will be less than 10kts. Due to the onshore nature, wave heights may still remain around a foot.
Winds then become southwesterly 5-10kts Sunday, increasing to 10-15kts Monday, and then 15-20kts Monday night ahead of a cold front. Wave heights will increase away from shore during this period, but within a mile from shore, likely a foot or less.
After the late Monday night/early Tuesday cold front, winds become northwesterly Tuesday 10-20kts, then northerly Tuesday night 10-20kts, and then 5-15kts through Thursday. Wave heights Tuesday into Tuesday night 2-4ft, decreasing to 1-3ft midweek.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.