Thursday, August13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Beverly Shores, IN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 7:51PM Thursday August 13, 2020 11:31 AM CDT (16:31 UTC) Moonrise 12:31AMMoonset 3:38PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ745 Expires:202008132115;;390348 Fzus53 Klot 131448 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 948 Am Cdt Thu Aug 13 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz743>745-132115- Calumet Harbor To Gary-gary To Burns Harbor- Burns Harbor To Michigan City- 948 Am Cdt Thu Aug 13 2020
Rest of today..East winds 10 to 15 kt. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming east 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Friday..East winds around 10 kt becoming northeast in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Friday night..East winds 10 to 15 kt diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ745


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beverly Shores, IN
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location: 41.69, -86.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 131121 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 621 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

SHORT TERM. 315 AM CDT

Through Friday Night .

There are no short term forecast concerns thanks to expansive continental high pressure centered over Hudson Bay and extending into the Great Lakes. Today will be a near weather carbon copy of yesterday with an easterly wind of 5 to 10 mph, highs in the mid 80s, and afternoon mixing out of dew points. The only slight difference will be some clouds with a combination of translucent high-based patches and scattered afternoon cumulus.

On Friday, the stagnant closed upper low over far southern Illinois/western Kentucky today will ease its way east-northeast bringing subtle mid-level cooling up to or near the southeast forecast area. There will also be a slight increase in low-level moisture. A spotty shower or two is possible with the marginal instability in northwest Indiana during the afternoon. Otherwise Friday should see highs realize a degree warmer than today.

MTF

LONG TERM. 315 AM CDT

Saturday through Wednesday .

This period also features a decent amount of quiet weather but a couple things to note, including thunderstorm chances at the beginning on Saturday and/or Saturday night, and a possible risk for hazardous swimming conditions Sunday-Monday due to waves from onshore winds possibly reaching 5 ft.

On Friday night, a fairly strong neutrally tilted upper wave will be scooting along the U.S./Canadian prairie provinces border and this will gradually dampen some through Saturday. The forcing and low-level response from this in NWP solutions for Friday night is supportive of well upstream convective organization that could make it to northeast Iowa/southwest Wisconsin early Saturday morning. This would be expected to be in a weakening state due to the aforementioned dampening of the upper wave and the heights being slow to fall closer to/over the forecast area. A short wave, possibly a tad convectively-enhanced, is forecast by global model solutions to track eastward over southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois during the Saturday P.M. hours with a cold front trailing slightly behind that. The GFS is a bit faster than the ECMWF during that 12-hour window. It still is tough to deviate much from a "chance of thunderstorms" wording during Saturday and Saturday evening, but did inch up PoPs some over northern Illinois from what was provided by a guidance blend.

For Saturday's storm potential . dew points of the lower 70s or at least very near that are likely to be present in the afternoon given the reservoir of such values already at our latitude to in central Iowa this morning. That will give it a more muggy feel with highs expected in the upper 80s, if not disrupted by storms. A plume of mixed layer CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg would be supported. Flow of 20-25 kt is forecast in the 500-700 mb layer, and deep layer shear looks to remain below 30 kt. With some convergence on or ahead of the frontal zone and sufficient moisture (PWATS of 1.5-1.7 inches), some congealing into multi- cells of any storms that do develop would be plausible, and a marginal wind and possibly hail threat could be present for a few hour period.

Behind the cold front, northwest winds will take over and a secondary front looks to push over the area sometime late in the weekend. If that timing holds, Sunday is likely to be dry CWA- wide. Behind the secondary front, highs look to drop into the mid-upper 70s Monday and Tuesday. As for the northerly winds, the duration of them into especially northwest Indiana may be enough for a rip current threat and possibly into Cook County as well during Sunday into Monday.

We maintain a dry forecast for next week. The northwest flow may not be void of disturbances, and 00Z long range guidance did show hints of a low amplitude feature passing nearby or overhead in the Tuesday-Wednesday period, but confidence is much too low to deviate from a dry forecast at this juncture.

MTF

AVIATION. For the 12Z TAFs .

VFR conditions will continue with high pressure in the region. NE/E winds under 10 knots at night and to briefly over 10 knots during the day are expected.

Kluber

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . None.

Visit us at weather.gov/chicago

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45170 5 mi21 min Calm G 0 74°F 74°F1 ft74°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 29 mi43 min NE 6 G 8 74°F 1019.6 hPa68°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 35 mi31 min E 6 G 7 74°F 69°F
CNII2 35 mi16 min ENE 5.1 G 6 75°F 65°F
OKSI2 37 mi151 min E 1.9 G 2.9 76°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 39 mi31 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 78°F 1020.7 hPa (-0.6)
45174 47 mi21 min E 5.8 G 7.8 74°F 74°F1 ft1020.3 hPa66°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Michigan City Municipal Airport, IN9 mi36 minESE 410.00 miFair77°F66°F69%1020.3 hPa
Valparaiso Porter County Municipal Airport, IN17 mi35 minVar 310.00 miFair79°F60°F52%1019.9 hPa
Gary Regional Airport, IN23 mi46 minNNE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F66°F69%1020.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMGC

Wind History from MGC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6SE3S6CalmN3N3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4NE6
1 day agoN8N8N7NW7N8N7N6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4NE5NE4
2 days agoS6S8S7S8S6W10
G22
N4SE3S4W3W6S6SW4S4CalmS3SW5SW4SW5SW3SW3W3N9NW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.