Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gary, IN
May 18, 2024 3:44 PM CDT (20:44 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:24 AM Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 3:26 PM Moonset 3:07 AM |
LMZ744 Expires:202405190315;;442482 Fzus53 Klot 182024 Nshlot
nearshore marine forecast national weather service chicago/romeoville il 324 pm cdt Sat may 18 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
lmz743>745-190315- calumet harbor il to gary in-gary to burns harbor in- burns harbor to michigan city in- 324 pm cdt Sat may 18 2024
Late this afternoon - Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southwest 10 to 15 kt late this evening, then becoming west overnight. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves around 1 ft.
Sunday - Northwest winds around 10 kt becoming north in the morning. Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sunday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southeast overnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Monday - South winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
nearshore marine forecast national weather service chicago/romeoville il 324 pm cdt Sat may 18 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
lmz743>745-190315- calumet harbor il to gary in-gary to burns harbor in- burns harbor to michigan city in- 324 pm cdt Sat may 18 2024
LMZ700
No data
No data
FXUS63 KLOT 182019 AFDLOT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 319 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Small chance (~20%) for some isolated/widely scattered showers/storms later this evening as a weak cold front moves into the area.
- A few additional isolated showers and storms possible Sunday afternoon and early evening, mainly south of the Illinois and Kankakee River Valleys.
- Summer-like warmth expected through Tuesday night, interrupted only by lake cooling Sunday; then during any showers/storms Monday and Tuesday.
- Scattered thunderstorms likely Monday afternoon and evening across portions of northern Illinois, a few of which could be strong, and capable of causing heavy downpours and ponding
- Scattered (mainly non-severe) thunderstorms possible Tuesday morning and then after a break, widespread thunderstorms in the evening, including a severe threat for parts of the area
DISCUSSION
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Through Sunday Night:
Very warm and somewhat more humid weather has set up across the area this afternoon in advance of an approaching cold front across the Upper Midwest. While there have recently been a few attempts at thunderstorm development across northwestern IN where weaker capping exists, no more than some isolated sprinkles or light showers are expected east of I-57 this afternoon. Elsewhere, partly cloudy and warm conditions will persist the remainder of the afternoon as inland temperatures top out in the mid 80s.
Slightly cooler conditions are expected near the IL Lake Michigan shores due to an onshore southeasterly wind component.
Diurnal heating and destabilization in advance of the approaching cold front to our west-northwest is expected to foster scattered thunderstorm development across parts WI and northeastern IA later this afternoon. While this activity should persist into this evening as the cold front begins to approach northwestern IL, a gradual weakening trend is expected through the evening as the boundary layer stabilizes. Nevertheless, I opted to add some slight chance POPs (20%) along the front across northern IL later this evening. Areas in and around the Rockford area stand the best chance to have a few of these weakening showers and storms in the 10pm to midnight timeframe.
The cold front is expected to stall out over my southern counties in central IL and IN on Sunday. North of the boundary, a drier airmass will filter into the area on east-northeasterly winds.
Accordingly, a less humid day is expected for much of interior sections of northern IL (especially north of I-80). Temperatures will be the coolest near the lake, where readings will hold in the upper 60s to around 70. Farther inland, temperatures will top out in the low to mid 80s.
Much of the area will be precipitation free on Sunday due to the drier easterly winds. However, a moist and unstable airmass will remain in place to the south near the stalled frontal boundary across central IL and IN. Therefore, as capping weakens in the afternoon, some isolated showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, especially south of the Kankakee and Illinois River Valleys.
While weak flow through the troposphere will curtail any threat for organized storms, any showers or storms that do manage to develop Sunday afternoon will be very slow moving at 10 mph or less. This could thus promote some very localized instances of heavy rainfall.
These isolated storms should diurnally weaken after sunset Sunday evening, thus setting up a relatively quiet night for the area. We will have to keep an eye on convective trends to our west late Sunday night, however. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and convectively enhance a mid-level disturbance across the Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. The decaying remnants of these thunderstorms are expected to shift east-northeastward across the Corn Belt Sunday night, and it is possible that some of them make it into northern IL into early Monday morning. We thus continue to carry some low end chances (~20%) west of I-39 late Sunday night to account for this possibility.
KJB
Monday through Saturday:
On Monday, a lead short-wave and its associated surface low lifting into the upper MS Valley will drag a warm front north of the area. While the strongest forcing will pass north of our area, the southern flank of the short-wave will provide some weak height falls. With strong heating bringing temps up into the mid-upper 80s and dew points into the 60s amidst 6.5-7.0 C/km mid-level lapse rates, looking at up to 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Areas near/northwest of I-55 or I-57 should see enough erosion of CIN (capping) that combined with the modest large scale forcing, expecting scattered thunderstorms to develop toward mid day and especially in the afternoon over the western or northwestern half or third of the CWA and then track northeast.
Marginal (less than 30 kt) of deep layer shear and the modest mid-level lapse rates appear to be limiting factors for a more appreciable severe threat, though fairly steep low level lapse rates and seasonably high PWATs may contribute to wet downbursts with 50 to perhaps 60 mph gusts across the northwest CWA, in line with the SPC day 3 level 1 (marginal) severe risk. Our official forecast holds onto likely PoPs north of I-80 in the evening and overnight, though with weak flow aloft, diurnal loss of destabilization, and minimal large scale forcing, the highest thunderstorm coverage may in reality be confined to only an hour or two after sunset.
Looking into Tuesday, global guidance has been consistent in bringing a lead short-wave northeastward across the mid-MS Valley during the morning hours. There may be enough of a MUCAPE reservoir for scattered showers and thunderstorms during this time, focused near/northwest of I-55, where we have 30-50% PoPs in our forecast. Morning timing and marginal deep layer shear suggest primarily non-severe thunderstorms, with maybe a chance of an isolated marginally severe hail or wind producer. Similar to our previous discussion, Tuesday afternoon continues to look like a gap in the convection that should support temps at least in the mid to upper 80s, and possibly tagging 90F if clouds really scour out. Southerly winds will gust up to 30-35 mph.
The powerhouse cyclone for late May that has exhibited an overall slowing trend vs. a few days ago will have the surface low northwest of Des Moines early Tuesday evening (around 00z).
Initial supercells initiating west of the MS River may tend to congeal into a squall line or bowing segments into the evening, with a coherent but possibly weakening severe MCS tracking eastward across the area during the evening. Given the slightly later and less favorable timing, areas of the CWA within the 30% probs area in the SPC Day 4 outlook correspondingly appear to have the highest severe chance. With this said, strong dynamics and strengthening southerly low-level flow may offset diurnal stabilization enough to keep the severe (mainly wind) threat going farther east, overall fitting the 15% area on the outlook.
Thunderstorm coverage should wind down overnight Tuesday night and then expecting the cold front to clear the area by Wednesday morning. Barring a slightly slower trend in the cold frontal passage, Wednesday will be a breezy, cooler (highs in low-mid 70s), and dry day for most of the area. In this scenario (slightly slower cold front), the best chance for any showers and a thunderstorm will be southeast of I-55, where chance PoPs were maintained. Dry and pleasant weather Thursday, with highs in the mid to upper 70s, may very well persist through the day on Friday, before shower and thunderstorm chances possibly return at the end of the period. An early glance at Memorial Day Weekend points toward seasonable temps and some potential for showers and thunderstorms at times, but that's about all that can be said this far out.
Castro
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
VFR conditions are expected through the period, with only some scattered to occasionally broken CIGs around 5,000 feet expected this afternoon. Winds will remain light (up to around 10 kt) from the the south-southwest through this evening. A weak cold front will then move across the terminal airspace tonight causing winds to shift north-northwesterly during the predawn hours of Sunday. Winds are then expected to settle into an east- northeasterly direction during the day Sunday as a surface high builds in over southern WI.
A small chance (10-20% chance) exists for a couple of isolated showers or storms tonight as a cold front moves into the area.
The best chance for these storms will be west of the area today.
Currently it is anticipated that these storms will weaken as they shift eastward into northern IL and southern WI through the evening. The possibility even exists that the storms diminish altogether before the front reaches the Chicago area terminals overnight. For this reason, I have left a formal mention out of the TAFs at this time.
KJB
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight CDT tonight for INZ001-INZ002- INZ010-INZ011.
LM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 319 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Small chance (~20%) for some isolated/widely scattered showers/storms later this evening as a weak cold front moves into the area.
- A few additional isolated showers and storms possible Sunday afternoon and early evening, mainly south of the Illinois and Kankakee River Valleys.
- Summer-like warmth expected through Tuesday night, interrupted only by lake cooling Sunday; then during any showers/storms Monday and Tuesday.
- Scattered thunderstorms likely Monday afternoon and evening across portions of northern Illinois, a few of which could be strong, and capable of causing heavy downpours and ponding
- Scattered (mainly non-severe) thunderstorms possible Tuesday morning and then after a break, widespread thunderstorms in the evening, including a severe threat for parts of the area
DISCUSSION
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Through Sunday Night:
Very warm and somewhat more humid weather has set up across the area this afternoon in advance of an approaching cold front across the Upper Midwest. While there have recently been a few attempts at thunderstorm development across northwestern IN where weaker capping exists, no more than some isolated sprinkles or light showers are expected east of I-57 this afternoon. Elsewhere, partly cloudy and warm conditions will persist the remainder of the afternoon as inland temperatures top out in the mid 80s.
Slightly cooler conditions are expected near the IL Lake Michigan shores due to an onshore southeasterly wind component.
Diurnal heating and destabilization in advance of the approaching cold front to our west-northwest is expected to foster scattered thunderstorm development across parts WI and northeastern IA later this afternoon. While this activity should persist into this evening as the cold front begins to approach northwestern IL, a gradual weakening trend is expected through the evening as the boundary layer stabilizes. Nevertheless, I opted to add some slight chance POPs (20%) along the front across northern IL later this evening. Areas in and around the Rockford area stand the best chance to have a few of these weakening showers and storms in the 10pm to midnight timeframe.
The cold front is expected to stall out over my southern counties in central IL and IN on Sunday. North of the boundary, a drier airmass will filter into the area on east-northeasterly winds.
Accordingly, a less humid day is expected for much of interior sections of northern IL (especially north of I-80). Temperatures will be the coolest near the lake, where readings will hold in the upper 60s to around 70. Farther inland, temperatures will top out in the low to mid 80s.
Much of the area will be precipitation free on Sunday due to the drier easterly winds. However, a moist and unstable airmass will remain in place to the south near the stalled frontal boundary across central IL and IN. Therefore, as capping weakens in the afternoon, some isolated showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, especially south of the Kankakee and Illinois River Valleys.
While weak flow through the troposphere will curtail any threat for organized storms, any showers or storms that do manage to develop Sunday afternoon will be very slow moving at 10 mph or less. This could thus promote some very localized instances of heavy rainfall.
These isolated storms should diurnally weaken after sunset Sunday evening, thus setting up a relatively quiet night for the area. We will have to keep an eye on convective trends to our west late Sunday night, however. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and convectively enhance a mid-level disturbance across the Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. The decaying remnants of these thunderstorms are expected to shift east-northeastward across the Corn Belt Sunday night, and it is possible that some of them make it into northern IL into early Monday morning. We thus continue to carry some low end chances (~20%) west of I-39 late Sunday night to account for this possibility.
KJB
Monday through Saturday:
On Monday, a lead short-wave and its associated surface low lifting into the upper MS Valley will drag a warm front north of the area. While the strongest forcing will pass north of our area, the southern flank of the short-wave will provide some weak height falls. With strong heating bringing temps up into the mid-upper 80s and dew points into the 60s amidst 6.5-7.0 C/km mid-level lapse rates, looking at up to 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Areas near/northwest of I-55 or I-57 should see enough erosion of CIN (capping) that combined with the modest large scale forcing, expecting scattered thunderstorms to develop toward mid day and especially in the afternoon over the western or northwestern half or third of the CWA and then track northeast.
Marginal (less than 30 kt) of deep layer shear and the modest mid-level lapse rates appear to be limiting factors for a more appreciable severe threat, though fairly steep low level lapse rates and seasonably high PWATs may contribute to wet downbursts with 50 to perhaps 60 mph gusts across the northwest CWA, in line with the SPC day 3 level 1 (marginal) severe risk. Our official forecast holds onto likely PoPs north of I-80 in the evening and overnight, though with weak flow aloft, diurnal loss of destabilization, and minimal large scale forcing, the highest thunderstorm coverage may in reality be confined to only an hour or two after sunset.
Looking into Tuesday, global guidance has been consistent in bringing a lead short-wave northeastward across the mid-MS Valley during the morning hours. There may be enough of a MUCAPE reservoir for scattered showers and thunderstorms during this time, focused near/northwest of I-55, where we have 30-50% PoPs in our forecast. Morning timing and marginal deep layer shear suggest primarily non-severe thunderstorms, with maybe a chance of an isolated marginally severe hail or wind producer. Similar to our previous discussion, Tuesday afternoon continues to look like a gap in the convection that should support temps at least in the mid to upper 80s, and possibly tagging 90F if clouds really scour out. Southerly winds will gust up to 30-35 mph.
The powerhouse cyclone for late May that has exhibited an overall slowing trend vs. a few days ago will have the surface low northwest of Des Moines early Tuesday evening (around 00z).
Initial supercells initiating west of the MS River may tend to congeal into a squall line or bowing segments into the evening, with a coherent but possibly weakening severe MCS tracking eastward across the area during the evening. Given the slightly later and less favorable timing, areas of the CWA within the 30% probs area in the SPC Day 4 outlook correspondingly appear to have the highest severe chance. With this said, strong dynamics and strengthening southerly low-level flow may offset diurnal stabilization enough to keep the severe (mainly wind) threat going farther east, overall fitting the 15% area on the outlook.
Thunderstorm coverage should wind down overnight Tuesday night and then expecting the cold front to clear the area by Wednesday morning. Barring a slightly slower trend in the cold frontal passage, Wednesday will be a breezy, cooler (highs in low-mid 70s), and dry day for most of the area. In this scenario (slightly slower cold front), the best chance for any showers and a thunderstorm will be southeast of I-55, where chance PoPs were maintained. Dry and pleasant weather Thursday, with highs in the mid to upper 70s, may very well persist through the day on Friday, before shower and thunderstorm chances possibly return at the end of the period. An early glance at Memorial Day Weekend points toward seasonable temps and some potential for showers and thunderstorms at times, but that's about all that can be said this far out.
Castro
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
VFR conditions are expected through the period, with only some scattered to occasionally broken CIGs around 5,000 feet expected this afternoon. Winds will remain light (up to around 10 kt) from the the south-southwest through this evening. A weak cold front will then move across the terminal airspace tonight causing winds to shift north-northwesterly during the predawn hours of Sunday. Winds are then expected to settle into an east- northeasterly direction during the day Sunday as a surface high builds in over southern WI.
A small chance (10-20% chance) exists for a couple of isolated showers or storms tonight as a cold front moves into the area.
The best chance for these storms will be west of the area today.
Currently it is anticipated that these storms will weaken as they shift eastward into northern IL and southern WI through the evening. The possibility even exists that the storms diminish altogether before the front reaches the Chicago area terminals overnight. For this reason, I have left a formal mention out of the TAFs at this time.
KJB
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight CDT tonight for INZ001-INZ002- INZ010-INZ011.
LM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN | 10 mi | 65 min | ENE 5.1G | 70°F | 29.89 | |||
| CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL | 12 mi | 57 min | S 8.9G | 29.83 | ||||
| CNII2 | 19 mi | 30 min | S 4.1G | 78°F | 59°F | |||
| CHII2 - Chicago, IL | 21 mi | 45 min | ESE 16G | 76°F | 69°F | |||
| MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN | 22 mi | 45 min | NE 8.9G | 71°F | 29.83 | 65°F | ||
| OKSI2 | 22 mi | 105 min | ESE 6G | 77°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KGYY GARY/CHICAGO INTL,IN | 7 sm | 59 min | W 07 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 84°F | 63°F | 48% | 29.85 | |
| KIGQ LANSING MUNI,IL | 16 sm | 29 min | SW 05 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 82°F | 64°F | 55% | 29.86 | |
| KVPZ PORTER COUNTY RGNL,IN | 23 sm | 48 min | S 04 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 81°F | 59°F | 48% | 29.88 | |
| KMDW CHICAGO MIDWAY INTL,IL | 24 sm | 51 min | S 09G18 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 84°F | 57°F | 40% | 29.84 |
Chicago, IL,
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