Sunday, September27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Poughkeepsie, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 6:45PM Sunday September 27, 2020 2:23 AM EDT (06:23 UTC) Moonrise 5:15PMMoonset 2:16AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1257 Am Edt Sun Sep 27 2020
Overnight..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog. Areas of fog late. Areas of drizzle late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Areas of drizzle in the morning. Areas of fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely.
Wed..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
ANZ300 1257 Am Edt Sun Sep 27 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak area of low pressure off the mid atlantic drifts northward tonight into Sunday. High pressure over the atlantic establishes the flow for the beginning of the week. A broad slow moving frontal system will then impact the area for the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Poughkeepsie, NY
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location: 41.7, -73.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 270512 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 112 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. Warm and muggy weather will continue with chances for much needed rain on the increase as we head through next week. The best chance for widespread rainfall looks to be Tuesday through Wednesday as a potent cold front pushes through the Northeast. Much more seasonable temperatures return for the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. As of 1245 AM EDT . GOES-16 Night Fog product shows expansive stratus deck the area with moisture caught under inversions. Clouds will limit coverage and density of fog overnight. With south-southeast surface/low level flow have slight chance for very light rain and drizzle across portions of the eastern Catskills and southern Adirondacks. Mild and muggy overnight, lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s with similar dew points.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Due to persistent southerly flow, low morning stratus clouds tomorrow should once again be stubborn to erode away, especially in north to south oriented valley areas including the Hudson, Housatonic, Connecticut and Schoharie River Valleys. With our off shore coastal disturbance approaching Long Island and southern New England, enhanced south to southeast flow should increase warm air and moisture advection from the ocean. With the flow perpendicular to the terrain in the Catskills and Litchfield Hills, some patchy drizzle or light showers remain possible into tomorrow morning hours as shown in the ECWMF and NAM QPF output.

Guidance suggest that the low level moisture should then decrease enough by 15-16 UTC that our stratus deck should give way to increased sunshine. However, areas south and east of the Capital District likely remain partly to even mostly cloudy due to the approaching coastal low and marine air advecting inland. Areas north/west of Albany, on the other hand, should become partly to mostly sunny as the pressure gradient overhead tightens and low and mid-level flow increases enough to mix out low-level moisture. In addition, surface winds will once again become breezy with southerly winds sustained between 10 and 15kts with gusts to 20kts again.

Otherwise, temperatures tomorrow should once again finish above normal as 850mb isotherms warm up to +14C to +15C. As we eventually break for sun by the afternoon, expect high temperatures to rise into low to mid 70s with even some upper 70s possible the Hudson Valley. Despite such warm air aloft, sfc temperatures likely won't warm up to their maximum potential given shallow boundary layer depths only up to ~900mb. In fact, areas in NW CT and mid-Hudson Valley may very well stay a bit cooler due to the marine influenced air mass overhead. Best chance for temperatures to overachieve will be north and west of the Capital District should these areas break for sun earlier. Dew points will once again be high in the 60s so it will feel humid again.

The synoptic pattern becomes more meridional heading into Sunday night and Monday as an amplifying trough digs longitudinally into the Great Plains and eventually the Gulf Coast states. As a result, flow over the Northeast becomes southwesterly with a few shortwaves embedded in the flow advecting into our region. This will lead to increasing chances for some intermittent showers Sunday night through the first half of Monday. Some breaks for dry time are possible Monday afternoon as shortwaves exit into northern New England and areas of subsidence follow. However, skies likely remain mostly cloudy due to ongoing strong warm air advection with above normal temperatures and humid conditions remaining in place.

Chances for showers increase again Monday night as a surface low exiting into Quebec drags a potent cold front towards the Northeast. Guidance has trended slow with the front's arrival time into our eastern NY zones as a strong ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic blocks in intrusion. Even still, we continued to show low end chance POPs through 12 Tuesday but confidence is increasing that the main area of rain (and possibly a few rumbles of thunder) holds off until daytime. Otherwise, expect yet another muggy and mild night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Quite the pattern change coming up for the week ahead for a vast majority of the country. The extended forecast period will continue to focus on the large-scale pattern becoming highly amplified with anomalous upper ridging over North America (reflective of a +PNA/Positive Pacific North American Oscillation signature) and anomalous downstream troughing over the central and eastern North America (reflective of -AO/Negative Arctic Oscillation and - NAO/Negative North Atlantic Oscillation signatures). This development in the large-scale pattern will not only bring a stark temperature contrast between western CONUS and central/eastern CONUS, but will bring a pretty impressive change to the weather pattern for most. For us that means a trend to cooler than normal temperatures (that of October) and unsettled weather/much-needed rainfall.

Forecast models and their ensembles have come into better agreement with the H500 pattern regarding the flow separation from the parent upper trough. The ECMWF, NAM, GFS, and Canadian NH all depict flow separation with the development of a closed upper low digging into the southern U.S. with the main upper trough being located over Canada into the north-central U.S. There still remains some uncertainty regarding the timing of the closed low and evolution of embedded mid to upper level perturbations that will be associated with the upper trough/closed low.

On Tuesday, the FA will be placed under a strong southwest flow aloft regime with strong moisture/isentropic advection ahead of the upper trough and associated cold fronts. Atmospheric forcing will be stronger on Tuesday (as compared to Monday) with the forecast area being in closer proximity to the aforementioned upper trough and cold front. This will support rain showers to develop ahead of the cold front Tuesday afternoon/evening.

Given that strong upper ridging will be in place over the North Atlantic, the large-scale pattern will not be too progressive meaning that the upper trough axis will remain to our west across the central/east-central United States. Additionally, this also supports the potential for the cold front to slow/stall near the FA allowing for clouds/showers to persist through Wednesday.

There are differences amongst the forecast guidances in the timing of the closed upper low that will track northeastward from the southern U.S. and up the East Coast with the GFS being the fastest in the lifting the closed low, the ECMWF being the slowest, and the Canadian-NH being middle of the road. This as a result yields impacts as far as precipitation trends particularly for Thursday. By Thursday morning, the GFS/Canadian has much of the rain out of the area with the closed low having already phased with the upper trough on Wednesday, while the ECMWF has the second batch of rain associated with the closed upper low over the FA with rain ending sometime Thursday afternoon. Given the differences amongst the forecast models, have just 30% PoPs for Thursday.

Thermal profiles will be decreasing as colder air advects into the region after the fropa Thursday night. With the upper trough spinning over the Great Lakes region (the forecast area remaining on the eastern flank of the upper trough) and given how cold aloft it will be, there's the potential for instability and maybe even some lake enhanced rain showers to hang around Friday and Saturday. The best timing for these instability/lake enhanced showers will be during the prime diurnal hours or hours of max differential heating. For now have 20-40% Pops on Friday (highest northwest, lowest southeast), and 20% PoPs on Saturday.

So a period of wet/unsettled weather is on tab for the FA next week. With Albany sitting at only 0.50 inches of rainfall for the month, 2.21 inches below normal, the rainfall will be welcomed.

As mentioned earlier, temperatures will steadily be on the decline with high temperatures decreasing a few degrees each day. Anomalies will go from warmer than normal levels on Tuesday to cooler than normal anomalies by the end of the period. With the trough axis still remaining to our west, the epicenter of the most extreme anomalies will remain across the central United States. High temperatures will go from the mid-70s on Tuesday to the upper 50s/low 60s by Saturday. Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s/50s with some 30s across the higher terrain Thursday night- Saturday night.

AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. High pressure off the New England coast will maintain a humid southerly flow through Sunday night.

Low clouds will continue to form over the next few hours, with most TAF sites becoming low MVFR to IFR (for Cigs) by 10Z/Sun, with these Cigs then persisting through around 14Z/Sun. Vsbys should remain VFR to MVFR, as the cloud coverage and some wind should limit fog potential. However, some Cigs could dip into the LIFR range around 12Z/Sun.

The low Cigs should gradually lift between 14Z-16Z/Sun, with VFR conditions expected for most of the afternoon.

Cigs should then lower into the MVFR range Sunday evening between 03Z-06Z/Mon. There could be a few pockets of IFR Cigs, especially at KPSF, toward 06Z/Mon. In addition, some spotty light showers/patchy drizzle may also develop and affect KPOU and KPSF toward 06Z/Mon, possibly with MVFR Vsbys.

Winds will remain from the south to southeast at 4-8 KT through daybreak, then increase to 8-12 KT by mid morning and continuing through Sunday afternoon. Some gusts could reach 20-25 KT, with greatest chances at KALB. South to southeast winds should decrease to 5-10 KT Sunday night.

Outlook .

Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

FIRE WEATHER. Warm and increasingly humid conditions are expected into early next week. Some much needed rain is on the way with widespread showers anticipated heading into the mid-week period as cold front approaches and crosses the region. A cooler, seasonable airmass will be ushered into the area with the passage the front with a continued threat for showers through Thursday.

Tonight, relative humidity values will climb back to between 95-100 percent with patchy fog and dew formation. On Sunday, southerly winds of 10-18 mph with a few higher gusts are expected with minimum relative humidity values between 50 and 70 percent.

HYDROLOGY. Some much needed rain is on the way heading into the mid-week period. In the meantime, only very light QPF is possible through Monday night. As a cold front approaches and crosses the region through Wednesday, moderate rainfall amounts are anticipated. Latest QPF from global models suggest one to three inches across the region. Due to antecedent dry conditions, and per MMEFS, these rainfall amounts should not have too much effect on water levels. Thereafter, a continued threat for showers through Thursday as another front approaches and crosses the region.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. MA . None. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . IAA/Speciale NEAR TERM . IAA SHORT TERM . Speciale LONG TERM . Evbuoma AVIATION . KL FIRE WEATHER . IAA/BGM HYDROLOGY . IAA/BGM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPXN6 9 mi53 min SSE 1.9 69°F 1017 hPa65°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 22 mi53 min Calm 67°F 1015 hPa64°F
TKPN6 22 mi53 min S 1.9 G 2.9 67°F 67°F1016.1 hPa65°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 54 mi53 min ESE 4.1 G 6 68°F 69°F1016 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY5 mi30 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds67°F63°F87%1015.4 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY16 mi38 minS 510.00 miA Few Clouds68°F66°F94%1016.3 hPa
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY22 mi29 minN 010.00 miOvercast61°F61°F100%1016 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPOU

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE6345W9SW10W7S5S6SE74SE5SE4CalmE3E4SE7SE4Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW33W5--SW63S6S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4W436S5SW9SW6SW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Poughkeepsie, Hudson River, New York
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Poughkeepsie
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:29 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:26 AM EDT     3.01 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:42 PM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:46 PM EDT     3.47 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.72.11.50.90.40.40.91.52.12.732.92.62.11.71.10.60.511.72.42.93.33.5

Tide / Current Tables for Hyde Park, Hudson River, New York
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Hyde Park
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:15 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:55 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:52 AM EDT     3.09 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:08 PM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:12 PM EDT     3.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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32.41.81.20.60.30.71.31.92.533.12.92.41.91.40.80.50.71.42.12.83.33.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.