Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Calumet Park, IL
May 17, 2024 5:38 AM CDT (10:38 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:26 AM Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 2:26 PM Moonset 2:50 AM |
LMZ742 Expires:202405171515;;359808 Fzus53 Klot 171008 Aaa Nshlot
nearshore marine forecast - .updated national weather service chicago/romeoville il 508 am cdt Fri may 17 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
lmz740>742-171515- winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il- wilmette harbor to northerly island il- northerly island to calumet harbor il- 508 am cdt Fri may 17 2024
Today - Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt becoming northeast around 10 kt late this morning. Areas of dense fog developing. Waves nearly calm building to 1 to 2 ft this afternoon.
Tonight - East winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southeast less than 10 kt overnight. Areas of dense fog. Waves around 1 ft.
Saturday - Southeast winds around 5 kt increasing to around 10 kt. Areas of dense fog, mainly in the morning. Waves 1 ft or less.
Saturday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southwest overnight. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 ft.
nearshore marine forecast - .updated national weather service chicago/romeoville il 508 am cdt Fri may 17 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
lmz740>742-171515- winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il- wilmette harbor to northerly island il- northerly island to calumet harbor il- 508 am cdt Fri may 17 2024
LMZ700
No data
No data
FXUS63 KLOT 170803 AFDLOT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 303 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Areas of dense fog this morning will quickly dissipate a couple hours after sunrise this morning - A few spotty showers & perhaps a t-storm this afternoon near & south of the Kankakee/Illinois River Valley - Very warm temperatures expected Saturday through Tuesday with highs well into the 80s, though some lake cooling possible - Active Monday and Tuesday with scattered thunderstorms with the threat for strong/severe storms and flooding.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 303 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Through Saturday:
Light winds and a moist boundary layer with dewpoints depressions nearing zero has allowed for ground fog to develop. As of this writing (0730 UTC), fog is still in the process of developing, but already have a few sites down to 1/4SM. See no reason that fog won't grow more widespread and dense through sunrise, so plan to hoist a dense fog advisory for about the southern half of the CWA through early/mid morning. The high sun angle should help quickly burn off the fog this morning, despite fairly light winds.
Pretty substantial moisture gradient expected across our CWA today with low levels in particularly still moist over southern 1/3 or so of the CWA Heating of this moist boundary layer will result in modest afternoon instability with forecast soundings showing SBCAPE values 500-1000 J/kg and minimal CINH. Forcing will be lacking with weak height rises and no obvious surface/low level focusing/forcing mechanism. RAP/HRRR forecast soundings show evidence of mid level subsidence, which could help keep coverage sparse and might make it hard for updrafts to achieve charge separation and develop into thunderstorms. Measurable precip chances today of 15-20% south of the Illinois and Kankakee River Valleys seems reasonable.
The light winds should allow for formidable lake breeze to charge well inland this afternoon. Most substantial cooling will be closer to the lake where shoreline readings will probably spend the afternoon in the lower 60s ranging to the lower 80s across most of the CWA
Saturday looks to be several degrees warmer than today with guidance progged 925mb temps in the lower 20s Celcius. These temps are warmer than the 90% percentile values for mid-late May and should easily support high temps at least into the mid 80s.
More of a southerly gradient should result in far less pronounced of lake breeze Saturday afternoon, likely confined mainly to the IL shore, particularly the north shore communities.
- Izzi
Saturday Night through Thursday:
After quieter conditions on Saturday night, warm temperatures are expected to creep back into the 80s on Sunday. A weak cold front will then move across northern Illinois on Sunday afternoon with a lake enhanced push of the front farther inland.
The front itself can act as the forcing mechanism to create some shallow clouds and even the slight chance for showers. Even the NBM is now trying to resolve small areas where isolated showery activity may develop. Given the lower confidence in projecting the exact placement of shower development, most of the area was kept dry at this time.
On Monday, an anomalously deep long wave trough will begin to eject out over the Rockies and move eastward toward the Plains with cyclogenesis occurring at the surface. A small upper level wave will move northeastward out of the Rockies sending a lobe of vorticity over Illinois. Stronger forcing will likely be better to the northwest under the right entrance region of the upper level jet. And while there is still expected to be enough instability for showers and a few storms to develop Monday afternoon, the projected lack of shear should keep the severe risk suppressed for the time being. Southerly winds will advect moisture northward resulting in precipitable water well over an inch. Localized ponding and flooding will be the primary risk keeping the northwestern portion of the forecast area in a level 1 out of 5 for heavier rainfall.
By Tuesday, an upper level ridge builds over Texas reinforcing the southwesterly winds aloft, lifting the sub-tropical jet northward and sending the next surface cold front through the area. Model soundings are suggesting 40 to even 50 knots of deep layer shear, steep mid level lapse rates, and sufficient instability that would lead to Tuesday being the better chances for a set up that could lead to potentially strong to maybe even severe thunderstorms. Additionally, the persistent southwest flow will continue to push higher moisture content into the region allowing for a renewed chance for localized flooding. So it is no surprise that once again the forecast area is within a level 1 out of 5 for excessive rain. While it might be easy to get excited over Tuesday, the details still need to be ironed out as models are still disagreeing on how the low forms over the Southern Plains as well as its track (and speed) to the northeast over the area which influences timing and overall severity of storms.
On Wednesday the surface low is expected to continue its journey northeastward away from the area, but models are on different sides of the coin on the "when". The GFS has it becoming slight more diffuse and taking a slight north- northeasterly track, keeping it closer to the area and thereby supporting storm redevelopment Wednesday morning and early afternoon. However, the Euro has it moving much quicker through the area, allowing much of Wednesday to be dry.
Temperatures will finally cool behind the front with high temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday expected in the 70s. The next weaker upper level trough moves east of the Rockies on Thursday providing another chance for showers and storms to end the work week.
DK
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Key Aviation Impacts for the current TAF period:
- Potential for lower cigs and vis development early Friday morning
- Lake breeze provides northeast winds Friday afternoon for terminals closer to the shoreline
With sufficient low level moisture present and southerly winds becoming light and variable, there is a chance for reduced vis and even some lower cigs Friday morning. Dense fog is not currently expected, but vis could reach 3 to 4 SM for a brief window between 09Z and 13Z, though potentially lower vis in more rural areas away from the lake.
After day break, there should be enough mixing to scour out any lingering low clouds. VFR conditions are expected with a lake breeze developing in the afternoon. As temperatures increase in the afternoon, there is a slight chance for showers to develop closer to the front exiting to the east. While there could be a small window for showers near KGYY, for now it was kept out of the TAF.
DK
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ILZ008- ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ023-ILZ032- ILZ033-ILZ039-ILZ105-ILZ106-ILZ107-ILZ108.
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT /10 AM EDT/ this morning for INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019.
LM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 303 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Areas of dense fog this morning will quickly dissipate a couple hours after sunrise this morning - A few spotty showers & perhaps a t-storm this afternoon near & south of the Kankakee/Illinois River Valley - Very warm temperatures expected Saturday through Tuesday with highs well into the 80s, though some lake cooling possible - Active Monday and Tuesday with scattered thunderstorms with the threat for strong/severe storms and flooding.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 303 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Through Saturday:
Light winds and a moist boundary layer with dewpoints depressions nearing zero has allowed for ground fog to develop. As of this writing (0730 UTC), fog is still in the process of developing, but already have a few sites down to 1/4SM. See no reason that fog won't grow more widespread and dense through sunrise, so plan to hoist a dense fog advisory for about the southern half of the CWA through early/mid morning. The high sun angle should help quickly burn off the fog this morning, despite fairly light winds.
Pretty substantial moisture gradient expected across our CWA today with low levels in particularly still moist over southern 1/3 or so of the CWA Heating of this moist boundary layer will result in modest afternoon instability with forecast soundings showing SBCAPE values 500-1000 J/kg and minimal CINH. Forcing will be lacking with weak height rises and no obvious surface/low level focusing/forcing mechanism. RAP/HRRR forecast soundings show evidence of mid level subsidence, which could help keep coverage sparse and might make it hard for updrafts to achieve charge separation and develop into thunderstorms. Measurable precip chances today of 15-20% south of the Illinois and Kankakee River Valleys seems reasonable.
The light winds should allow for formidable lake breeze to charge well inland this afternoon. Most substantial cooling will be closer to the lake where shoreline readings will probably spend the afternoon in the lower 60s ranging to the lower 80s across most of the CWA
Saturday looks to be several degrees warmer than today with guidance progged 925mb temps in the lower 20s Celcius. These temps are warmer than the 90% percentile values for mid-late May and should easily support high temps at least into the mid 80s.
More of a southerly gradient should result in far less pronounced of lake breeze Saturday afternoon, likely confined mainly to the IL shore, particularly the north shore communities.
- Izzi
Saturday Night through Thursday:
After quieter conditions on Saturday night, warm temperatures are expected to creep back into the 80s on Sunday. A weak cold front will then move across northern Illinois on Sunday afternoon with a lake enhanced push of the front farther inland.
The front itself can act as the forcing mechanism to create some shallow clouds and even the slight chance for showers. Even the NBM is now trying to resolve small areas where isolated showery activity may develop. Given the lower confidence in projecting the exact placement of shower development, most of the area was kept dry at this time.
On Monday, an anomalously deep long wave trough will begin to eject out over the Rockies and move eastward toward the Plains with cyclogenesis occurring at the surface. A small upper level wave will move northeastward out of the Rockies sending a lobe of vorticity over Illinois. Stronger forcing will likely be better to the northwest under the right entrance region of the upper level jet. And while there is still expected to be enough instability for showers and a few storms to develop Monday afternoon, the projected lack of shear should keep the severe risk suppressed for the time being. Southerly winds will advect moisture northward resulting in precipitable water well over an inch. Localized ponding and flooding will be the primary risk keeping the northwestern portion of the forecast area in a level 1 out of 5 for heavier rainfall.
By Tuesday, an upper level ridge builds over Texas reinforcing the southwesterly winds aloft, lifting the sub-tropical jet northward and sending the next surface cold front through the area. Model soundings are suggesting 40 to even 50 knots of deep layer shear, steep mid level lapse rates, and sufficient instability that would lead to Tuesday being the better chances for a set up that could lead to potentially strong to maybe even severe thunderstorms. Additionally, the persistent southwest flow will continue to push higher moisture content into the region allowing for a renewed chance for localized flooding. So it is no surprise that once again the forecast area is within a level 1 out of 5 for excessive rain. While it might be easy to get excited over Tuesday, the details still need to be ironed out as models are still disagreeing on how the low forms over the Southern Plains as well as its track (and speed) to the northeast over the area which influences timing and overall severity of storms.
On Wednesday the surface low is expected to continue its journey northeastward away from the area, but models are on different sides of the coin on the "when". The GFS has it becoming slight more diffuse and taking a slight north- northeasterly track, keeping it closer to the area and thereby supporting storm redevelopment Wednesday morning and early afternoon. However, the Euro has it moving much quicker through the area, allowing much of Wednesday to be dry.
Temperatures will finally cool behind the front with high temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday expected in the 70s. The next weaker upper level trough moves east of the Rockies on Thursday providing another chance for showers and storms to end the work week.
DK
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Key Aviation Impacts for the current TAF period:
- Potential for lower cigs and vis development early Friday morning
- Lake breeze provides northeast winds Friday afternoon for terminals closer to the shoreline
With sufficient low level moisture present and southerly winds becoming light and variable, there is a chance for reduced vis and even some lower cigs Friday morning. Dense fog is not currently expected, but vis could reach 3 to 4 SM for a brief window between 09Z and 13Z, though potentially lower vis in more rural areas away from the lake.
After day break, there should be enough mixing to scour out any lingering low clouds. VFR conditions are expected with a lake breeze developing in the afternoon. As temperatures increase in the afternoon, there is a slight chance for showers to develop closer to the front exiting to the east. While there could be a small window for showers near KGYY, for now it was kept out of the TAF.
DK
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ILZ008- ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ023-ILZ032- ILZ033-ILZ039-ILZ105-ILZ106-ILZ107-ILZ108.
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT /10 AM EDT/ this morning for INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019.
LM...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMDW CHICAGO MIDWAY INTL,IL | 8 sm | 45 min | S 03 | 4 sm | Partly Cloudy | Mist | 61°F | 57°F | 88% | 29.76 |
| KGYY GARY/CHICAGO INTL,IN | 14 sm | 53 min | SSE 04 | 1/4 sm | Overcast | Fog | 61°F | 61°F | 100% | 29.76 |
| KIGQ LANSING MUNI,IL | 14 sm | 23 min | calm | 1/2 sm | Overcast | Fog | 59°F | 59°F | 100% | 29.77 |
| KORD CHICAGO O'HARE INTL,IL | 23 sm | 47 min | calm | 6 sm | A Few Clouds | Mist | 61°F | 59°F | 94% | 29.75 |
| KLOT LEWIS UNIVERSITY,IL | 24 sm | 23 min | S 03 | M1/4 sm | -- | Fog | 55°F | 55°F | 100% | 29.77 |
Chicago, IL,
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