Wethersfield, CT Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wethersfield, CT

June 20, 2024 8:43 AM EDT (12:43 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:14 AM   Sunset 8:30 PM
Moonrise 7:44 PM   Moonset 3:34 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 600 Am Edt Tue Mar 30 2021

Today - E winds around 5 kt, becoming S late this morning and afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.

Tonight - S winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.

Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon.

Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Thu - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers.

Thu night - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

Fri - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

Fri night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

Sat - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

ANZ300 600 Am Edt Thu Jun 20 2024

Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure over the western atlantic remains in control through late this week. A cold front slides down from the north Friday into Friday night and stalls close by on Saturday. The front lifts north as a warm front Sunday with a cold front to follow on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wethersfield, CT
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Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 201119 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 719 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
Hot and humid weather continues Thursday. Another round of thunderstorms is expected Thursday across northern MA including the Greater Boston area. Some of the storms could become strong to locally severe. A backdoor cold front moves in from northeast to southwest Friday, though there remains uncertainty how far inland the front tracks. Showers and thunderstorms are likely along the front Friday afternoon, especially across CT and western-central MA.
Scattered thunderstorms possible each day this weekend as well as Monday ahead of cold frontal passage that ushers in drier airmass next week. Aside from Sunday, more seasonable temperatures can be expected for the majority of the long term forecast.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

7 AM Update:

Very minor changes made to bring forecast in line with observations and expected convection this afternoon.

350 AM Update:

* Dangerous heat & humidity again today with near record highs away from the south coast. Low prob a few towns briefly hit 100

* A few strong to severe PM storms possible in northern MA

Subtropical ridge remains in place one more day with dangerous heat and humidity remaining over SNE. Airmass warms a few more degs today with multiple models offering 925 mb temps up to 26C to 27C, hottest across northern MA. This combined with at least partly to mostly sunny conditions (before afternoon convection fires), will yield near record highs in the mid to upper 90s across much of northern MA, low 90s for the high terrain. Low to mid 90s for northern portions of CT/RI and into interior SE MA. These dangerous temperatures will combine with oppressive dew pts in the low 70s to yield heat indices of 95 to 104 across much of MA away from the south coast and into northern portions of CT/RI. Southwest winds off the relatively cooler ocean will provide some relief once again and limit highs to the 80s across southern RI/MA, including Cape Cod and mid to upper 70s for the Islands.

As for afternoon thunderstorms, weak short wave energy traversing the backside of the ridge is firing convection early this morning across Lake Erie/Ontario and into western NY. This short wave energy will traverse NE into central and northern New England, helping to erode the northern periphery of the ridge via height falls. This is the greatest area of concern for strong to severe storms, across NYS/VT/NH/ME, which is supported by CSU machine learning probs and HRRR max potential updraft. Northern MA will be on the southern periphery of these height falls and marginal shear. Low confidence convective forecast given hi res guid typically struggles in these weakly forced environments. However, the wildcard will be strong SB instability with 1500-2500 j/kg, which may be sufficient in breaking the mid level cap where weak deep layer shear and height falls overlap across northern MA. Farther south across CT/RI and southeast MA, deep layer shear decreases to less than 20 kt along with weakening height falls. Hence, lower probs of storms across CT/RI and southeast MA today. Given magnitude of SB instability combined with inverted /\ sounding signature, kept previous enhanced wording in the forecast for northern MA, gusty winds and brief heavy downpours possible, with PWATs up to 2 inches along with weak WNW unidirectional flow aloft.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
350 AM update...

* Early evening storms dissipate after sunset * Another warm/humid night * Storms Fri likely focused across CT & western-central MA

Thursday night...

Any early evening storms across northern MA will come to an end by 10/11 pm, given lack of deep layer shear and poor mid level lapse rates to support nocturnal convection. Otherwise, dry weather prevails along with another very warm and humid night, with dew pts in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Friday...

Northern stream short wave trough moves across eastern Quebec and in its wake, sends a backdoor cold front traversing our region from northeast to southwest. This front will break the heat but also serve as focus for possible convection, especially across CT and western-central MA, on the warm side of the boundary. First temps, warm sector airmass is confined to CT and western-central MA where 925 mb temps are still about +23C. If enough sunshine materializes, this could be a 4th consecutive day of 90+ temps for portions of CT into western-central MA. Heat indices of 95+ are possible, thus a heat advisory remains posted there for Friday. Not as hot elsewhere with highs in the 80s, except mid to upper 70s along the eastern MA coast, in response to NE flow behind the backdoor front, streaming across SSTs in the 60s. Humidity not as oppressive as previous days, but still elevated with dew pts in the 60s.

As for convective potential, modest height falls will be accompanied by modest deep layer shear and mid level moisture to support another round of storms. Storms likely most numerous across CT into western- central MA in the warm sector and also vicinity of the backdoor front where low level convergence will be maximized. Modest SB instability of 1000-1500 j/kg of CAPE and marginal deep layer shear will provide a low risk of storms with strong winds. Perhaps a somewhat higher risk is heavy rain/flood threat, with PWATs 2+ inches, slow moving frontal boundary and unidirectional flow aloft for potential back building storms. HRRR highlights this potential with a 30% of 3 inches of rain in 3 hours from 18z-21z Fri and again 21z-00z Saturday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
350 AM update...

* Scattered thunderstorms possible Saturday through Monday with best chance for storms coming each afternoon/early evening

* Cold frontal passage on Monday will usher in a much drier period for the middle of next week

* Brief reprieve from oppressive heat Saturday before heat builds back Sunday. More seasonable airmass next week behind the frontal passage

Saturday...

Synoptic pattern changes very little for Saturday as we remain on the northern fringes of the retrograding ridge with a quasistationary cold front draped somewhere across southern Connecticut/southeastern New York. The location of this frontal boundary will again be key in evaluating the scattered thunderstorm threat for Saturday, as a rather stable airmass will continue to exist over at least the eastern half of our CWA given onshore surface flow, with southerly flow to the south and west of the boundary. It is along and west of this convergence zone, that could potentially exclude all of southern New England, that some scattered storms can be expected.

*If* the boundary shifts a bit more "northeast", putting portions of SNE in the warm sector, storm development will be delayed until after 15Z or so with a capping inversion in place, thus, we'll have to wait for surface instability to build to overcome the cap.
Compared to Friday, bulk shear is a bit more robust, around 30-35kt, in the area of greatest instability, which could support some longer lived cells. Lapse rates look, average, around 6C/km and with DCAPE values between 300-500J/kg and freezing levels at almost 15,000ft, the damaging wind and hail threats remain low in the absence of very intense updrafts. The greatest threat associated with any stronger cells would be pockets of heavy rain given another day of "tall skinny CAPE" and PWATs around 2". A quick inch or two of rain leading to isolated poor drainage or urban flooding is possible if longer lived cells develop.

If we do "warm sector" and see some storms develop, surface based instability will dissipate very quickly after sunset, which will mitigate any marginal severe threat beyond 01Z. There will remain some elevated CAPE, which may allow some showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder to linger past 03Z Saturday night. The NBM 3 hourly thunder probs give a reasonable estimate of where showers and storms will be possible, generally isolated to the Connecticut River Valley.

Sunday/Monday...

Sunday, and in particular Sunday evening, looks to be more active as low pressure/shortwave moves east from the Great Lakes. A few waves of energy will provide enhanced lift and with bulk shear values climbing north of 40kt, expecting to see some longer lived convection compared to Saturday. Will note, however, that the shortwave has become increasingly LESS amplified in models over the last 24 hours, which does introduce some uncertainty regarding storm coverage, as a weaker wave = less forcing = fewer storms.

MUCAPE values exceeding 2000J/kg will again wane quickly after sunset on Sunday with the actual frontal passage delayed until sometime mid-day Monday. Thus, expecting a lull in showers/storms overnight Sunday before a potential second round of convection during the daylight hours of Monday. A much more comfortable airmass develops behind the front late Monday with dewpoints dropping into the low 60s.

Next week...

Cold frontal passage early next work week looks to usher in a much more seasonable, albeit still warm, airmass for mix next week.
Precip chances look rather scarce with an apparent lack of forcing mechanisms.

AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update:

Thursday: High confidence in TAF/trends, lower to moderate on t- storm timing.

VFR and modest SW winds except MVFR in thunderstorms with cloud bases around 3000ft and vsby reductions to around 3SM. Greatest risk for thunderstorms is across northern MA into VT/NH/ME. A few strong to severe storms are possible 18z-00z. Storms would be capable of frequent lightning, heavy downpours and localized strong gusts. SW winds around 10-15 kt. Farther south across CT/RI and southeast MA, much lower probability of any storms.
Brief MVFR possible with any storm.

Thursday night: high confidence on trends, but lower on exact timing.

Any early evening thunderstorms across northern MA will dissipate with sunset. Easing SW winds early Thu night could shift to N/NE under 10 kt by daybreak.

Friday: high confidence on trends, lower on exact details.

Greatest risk for storms is across CT into western-central MA. A few strong to severe storms possible in this region during the afternoon. Elsewhere, risk of storms is much lower. Mainly VFR but lowering to MVFR in PM storms. NE winds around 10 kt except SW winds across CT, eventually becoming NE.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. Low probability of seabreeze 15z- 18z with direction of 160 degs, but higher probability winds remain SW. Chance of thunderstorms as early as 17z and possibly as late as 02z. Although, many hours of quiet/dry weather in between.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. TSRA Thu PM, although timing uncertain. Could begin as soon as 18z but more likely after 20z.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Scattered SHRA, scattered TSRA.

Friday Night through Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Sunday Night through Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely, isolated TSRA.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

350 AM update...

Through Friday: High confidence.

High pressure just offshore provides fairly tranquil boating weather much of this period. Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across the northern MA waters. A few strong storms possible into early Thu evening. SW winds 10 to 15 kt, then shifting to the NE Friday.
Thunderstorm probability shifts to the RI waters Fri.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Isolated rain showers.

Friday Night through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain showers likely, isolated thunderstorms.

Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain showers likely, isolated thunderstorms.

CLIMATE
All Time June High Temperature Record (Daily)

BOS - 100 F (06/06/1925, 06/26/1952 and 06/30/2021)
BDL - 100 F (06/26/1952, 06/30/1964)
PVD - 98 F (06/25/1943, 06/15/1945 and 06/30/1945)
ORH - 98 F (06/26/1952)

Most recent day of 100 F (or greater)

BOS - 100 F (07/24/2022)
BDL - 100 F (07/21/2019)
PVD - 100 F (07/28/2020)
ORH - 102 F (07/04/1911)*

* For ORH this is the only 100+ degree day in its period of record.

Daily High Temperature Records...

June 20th

BOS - 98 F (1953)
BDL - 97 F (2012)
PVD - 95 F (1941)
ORH - 93 F (1953)

June 21st

BOS - 96 F (2012)
BDL - 96 F (1953 and 2012)
PVD - 96 F (1941)
ORH - 91 F (Multi-Years)

Daily Warmest Low Temperatures Records...

June 20th

BOS - 78 F (1931)
BDL - 74 F (1931)
PVD - 74 F (1931)
ORH - 72 F (1931)

June 21st

BOS - 80 F (2012)
BDL - 73 F (1923 and 2012)
PVD - 75 F (2012)
ORH - 74 F (1923 and 2012)

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for CTZ002>004.
Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ002-003.
MA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for MAZ008>011.
Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ007-010>021.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for MAZ002>007- 012>019-026.
RI...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for RIZ001>005.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for RIZ001>005.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 33 mi55 minSSW 7G8 71°F 68°F30.31
NLHC3 38 mi55 min 74°F 30.29
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 47 mi55 minSSW 6G7 72°F 67°F30.25


Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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Tide / Current for Rocky Hill, Connecticut River, Connecticut
   
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Rocky Hill, Connecticut River, Connecticut, Tide feet


Tide / Current for Middletown, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Middletown, Connecticut River, Connecticut, Tide feet


Weather Map
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Upton, NY,




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