Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Put-in-Bay, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
930 AM Update...
Lowered the afternoon dewpoints/RH a bit given the potential drying with mixing today. ENE winds off Lake Erie keeps a tier of counties along the lakeshore much cooler than the inland areas, and have a large temperature spread between the lakeshore and the southern zones.

Previous Discussion...
Main concern for the near term period will be the development of scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front Thursday afternoon and evening. Although the most recent SPC SWODY2 outlook puts much of the region into a slight risk, do think the severe potential for the local area is on the lower end. A few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds being the primary threat do appear possible Thursday afternoon, especially along and east of the I-71 corridor, though not anticipating a widespread severe weather threat.

Low pressure will lift a warm front north across the region late tonight into Thursday morning, with elevated showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder or two found along the front. Warm air advection in the wake of the warm front will usher in another moist low- level air mass with dew points rising into the lower 60s. By early Thursday afternoon, an impressive southwest 700 mb jet of 50 knots will enter Indiana and Northwest Ohio with showers and thunderstorms initiating on the eastern periphery of this jet energy. Bulk shear of around 40 knots will be present across northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania, though poor mid-level lapse rates <6 C/km will inhibit MLCAPE to generally 1000 J/kg or less which will be the main limiting factor for any strong to severe storms. Could see a scenario in which a few stronger cells are able to overcome the unfavorable mid-levels and tap into the 700 mb wind field. This is illustrated somewhat by the 0Z HRRR, showing isolated paintballs of wind gusts > 55 mph, mainly along and east of the I-71 corridor where low-level lapse rates will be the greatest.

For today, a pleasant air mass will be in place in the wake of the cold front as high pressure settles south across the Great Lakes. Temperatures in areas outside of the influence of the lake will rise into the mid to upper 60s under sunny skies.
Unfortunately, areas downwind of Lake Erie will be kept slightly cooler in the 50s, albeit with plentiful sun.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
The shortwave trough lifting out of the Plains will cross the area Thursday night ahead of a deepening trough moving through the Upper Midwest. High pops continue for Thursday night as the cold front wraps in from the northwest. Not sure what the coverage of thunderstorms will be during the overnight period, but rain will be efficient with skinny CAPE profiles. PW values will be near 1.40" which is near the maximum observed values for May 1st and some training is possible with flow parallel to the front.

On Friday we will see another surface trough move east across the forecast area. Southwesterly flow ahead of the trough with highs in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees will support modest instability of less than 1000 J/kg to develop across the eastern half of the area.
Will have highest pops focused across the east with another round of scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon. A stronger push of cold air arrives Friday night into Saturday with highs on Saturday only in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees and a northerly wind.

Model spread really starts to develop by Saturday as the 00Z/30 GFS quickly swinging the upper trough east across the area while the Canadian and ECMWF have an upper level low closing off over the Ohio Valley. These solutions favor a greater potential for showers on Saturday along with warmer temperatures while the GFS is drier and more aggressive with the cold air. Confidence is below normal as we enter the weekend with uncertainty in the longwave pattern.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Uncertainty in the long term forecast is centered around the evolution of the longwave pattern as models reside in two different camps. The GFS is progressive with the upper trough with a strong ridge building into the Great Lakes and a trough off the East Coast.
This would suggest a dry and much warmer forecast heading into early next week. The other solution has an omega block with a ridge over the Central CONUS and an upper level closed low over the Great Basin and another over the Tennessee or Ohio Valley. This solution would be cooler with the potential for showers, but would depend a lot on the strength and location of the upper level low. Until confidence increases on a particular solution, will keep the forecast on the drier side. Temperatures trend warmer but will keep the potential for cooler conditions in mind.

AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/
VFR across the TAF sites this morning with primarily VFR to persist through the TAF period. Periodic high cirrus will stream in across the area today, with a mid-deck arriving this evening. A warm front will approach from the south towards the end of the TAF period, with a brief period of heavier rain showers possible at TOL.

Winds are generally out of the north to northeast this morning, 5 to 10 knots. Winds will gradually shift this evening, favoring an east direction, around 5 to 8 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in showers and thunderstorms Thursday through Friday. Some thunderstorms may contain strong wind gusts Thursday afternoon. Non-VFR may linger across the eastern half of the area into Saturday.

MARINE
All Small Craft Advisories have expired as high pressure builds overhead and northeast winds of 10-15 knots diminish to 10 knots or less through the morning. Easterly winds start to increase on Wednesday night then veer to the south as a warm front lifts north across Lake Erie. Low pressure is forecast to track northeast through the Great Lakes Region on Thursday and strong thunderstorms are possible. Southwest winds of 15-20 knots are expected Thursday night as low pressure passes north of Lake Erie. Winds become westerly on Friday then shift to the north behind a cold front Friday night. North winds of 10-15 knots over the weekend will maintain choppy conditions.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.