Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Put-in-Bay, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

2:18 AM EDT 4/22 Update...

Forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model guidance. No changes appeared necessary.

9:30 PM EDT 4/21 Update...

The cold front has exited east of the area this evening, ending the risk for any additional precipitation chances tonight. Westerly winds remain elevated across the area this evening, with periodic gusts of 30 to 35 mph. Do think the boundary layer should gradually stabilize over the next several hours as surface high pressure slowly builds north across the Ohio Valley overnight which should result in diminishing winds.

Previous Discussion...
The focus of the forecast is on the line of low-topped convection currently moving through NE Ohio. This convection is immediately along the cold front, where strong frontogenetic forcing is being maximized beneath the right entrance region of a 90-100 knot H3 jet streak and associated 50-60 knot H5 jet streak. A mid-level dry slot has allowed sufficient clearing ahead of the line for about 500 joules of SBCAPE and 250 joules of MLCAPE per the latest mesoanalysis, so expect the convection to continue through the rest of NE Ohio and through NW PA by 21Z. Deep layer effective bulk shear of 40-50 knots oriented mainly orthogonal to the line and 0-3Km shear of 35-45 knots also oriented orthogonal to the line is leading to line breaks, with some individual cells. This will maintain the risk for isolated embedded supercells capable of a brief spin up tornado and marginally severe hail, in addition to damaging winds. This will continue to be monitored through late afternoon, although the threat will remain very marginal and localized.

The other issue is synoptic gradient winds. Observations across NW and north central Ohio have recorded SW winds of 20-25 knots gusting to 30-40 knots at times behind the cold front. This appears to be due to the rapid clearing and pressure rises behind the front allowing for a well-mixed profile into a 40-50 knot low-level jet.
In fact, surface temperatures have been warmer behind the front in the cold air advection since there has been more sunshine, so the mixing down of these winds is not too much of a surprise. For the most part, obs have stayed just below advisory criteria, so will continue the SPS the rest of the afternoon for these gusty winds.
Expect the winds to diminish rather quickly by 00Z.

By tonight, there will be nothing to worry about as the mid/upper shortwave trough shears out across the eastern Great Lakes and the associated occluded low continues to fill as it reaches Hudson Bay by Tuesday morning. This will allow for quasi-zonal flow to return across the CONUS for Tuesday and Tuesday night, with surface ridging building across the Great Lakes. This will lead to quite a bit of sunshine for Tuesday, although temperatures will average 10-15 degrees cooler as the front pushes into the Ohio Valley, especially near the lakeshore where the flow is onshore. The surface ridging will start to drift east Tuesday night with return southerly flow redeveloping, so the milder air just to the south will make its return northward. A few showers are possible with the isentropic ascent ahead of the warm front late Tuesday night, but given the dry low-level airmass, kept the forecast dry for now.

Lows tonight will dip into the low/upper 40s, with highs Tuesday averaging low/mid 60s, except upper 50s/low 60s near the lake.
Milder lows of mid 40s to low 50s are expected Tuesday night, except in NW PA where the lingering colder airmass will result in temperatures falling to around 40.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
The general expectation for the short term period looks fairly quiet.
The overall weather pattern will be a zonal or westerly flow during the middle of the week. A warm front will lift northward across the area on Wednesday The better chance for shower or two will be west of the region and closer to Northwest Ohio on Wednesday. High temperatures will range from the upper 60s to the upper 70s. A weak area of high pressure will build back over the area late Wednesday into Wednesday night. The next shortwave will track along in the zonal flow from the Central Plains into the Midwest on Thursday.
Southerly flow ahead of this approaching system will advect in warmer air and moisture. Isolated rain showers may return back into the area late on Thursday into Thursday night. High temperatures on Thursday will range from the middle 70s to the lower 80s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The shortwave trough and weak area of low pressure will track through the Lower Great Lakes region and Upper Ohio Valley on Friday. Rain showers will be likely with a chance for thunderstorms Friday into Friday night. High temperatures will range from the middle to upper 70s on Friday. A cold front will slide through Friday night behind the exiting surface low pressure system.
Saturday will be much cooler with scattered rain showers ending from west to east. High temperatures this weekend will be in the upper 50s to middle 60s. Overnight low temperatures will be in the lower to middle 40s.

AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/
Aloft, W'erly flow persists through 06Z/Wed as a ridge builds from the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. At the surface, the ridge continues to affect our region through 06Z/Wed as the ridge axis shifts from the western Great Lakes to western NY and western PA. Our regional surface winds trend W'erly around 5 to 15 knots and gust up to 20 knots at times through ~12Z/Tues.
Thereafter, our regional surface winds are expected to trend variable in direction and around 5 knots in magnitude through 06Z/Wed as the building ridge is accompanied by a weakening synoptic MSLP gradient. However, a lake breeze will develop and impact locations within several miles of Lake Erie, including KCLE and KERI, late this morning through early evening.

Fair weather and mainly VFR are expected through the TAF period.
However, widespread low clouds and resulting ceilings near 2kft to 4kft AGL should exit our region gradually and generally from northwest to southeast through ~12Z/Tues.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms this Thursday afternoon through Saturday.

MARINE
A strong cold front is currently tracking across Lake Erie this afternoon. Gusty southwest winds 15 to 25 knots will become westerly this evening and overnight. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the rest of the afternoon through early Tuesday morning for the gusty westerly flow and higher waves. High pressure will build into the region Tuesday and the flow will become variable at 10 knots or less by later in the day. High pressure will move east of the lake Wednesday, allowing a warm front to approach the lake. A light easterly flow will return Wednesday followed by a southeasterly to southerly flow by Thursday. A low pressure system will approach the lake by Friday and a southerly to southeasterly flow 10 to 15 knots will overtake the lake on Friday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for LEZ142>145.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for LEZ146>149.