Monday, October14, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Put-in-Bay, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 6:55PM Monday October 14, 2019 10:13 PM EDT (02:13 UTC) Moonrise 6:42PMMoonset 7:13AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ163 Expires:201910150815;;721897 Fzus61 Kcle 150143 Glfle Open Lake Forecast For Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 943 Pm Edt Mon Oct 14 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Erie Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..High pressure of 30.10 inches across the lower lakes will exit the region to the east on Tuesday. Low pressure over the upper midwest will deepen to 29.50 inches as it moves east across the central lakes early Wednesday, taking a cold front east across the lake. High pressure of 30.10 inches builds east across the ohio valley on Thursday and Friday. Lez162>164-150815- lake erie open waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh- lake erie open waters from reno beach to the islands oh- lake erie open waters from the islands to vermilion oh- 943 pm edt Mon oct 14 2019
Overnight..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..West winds to 30 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds to 30 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers. Waves 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ163


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Put-in-Bay, OH
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location: 41.71, -83.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 150148
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
948 pm edt Mon oct 14 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will move east across the area tonight and off the new
jersey coast Tuesday. Low pressure will move east across the
central great lakes and deepen rapidly by Wednesday evening. A
strong cold front will move east across the area Tuesday night.

Another low pressure will develop off the carolina coast Wednesday
and rapidly intensify as it absorbs the great lakes low pressure
system. The combined low center will move northeast along the coast
high pressure will move slowly east to the local area by Friday.

Near term through Tuesday night
As expected, the lake-effect cloud band is shifting northward
over near the lake erie shore from lake county to erie county,
pa. Expect these clouds to be totally offshore by daybreak
Tuesday as the mean steering flow continues backing from west-
southwesterly to southwesterly. Elsewhere in our cwa, mainly
clear skies, very light or calm winds, and limited humidity will
promote efficient radiational cooling through daybreak Tuesday.

Decreased forecast low temperatures for Tuesday morning for
inland portions of the cwa. The 10th percentile low temperatures
from all available model guidance were used for this
adjustment. Accordingly, the frost advisory was expanded to
include the following counties: geauga, inland ashtabula,
crawford county, pa, and erie county, pa. The frost advisory
remains in effect from 2 am to 9 am edt Tuesday. Lastly, patchy
fog may affect interior portions of far-northeast oh and
northwest pa between 2 am and 9 am edt Tuesday. The remainder of
our near-term forecast remains valid.

Previous discussion... A weak broad upper level ridge will move
east across the area during this forecast period. This will
result in surface high pressure that will move east across the
local area tonight. As the high pressure moves in, the lake
effect rain showers and clouds will continue to wane this
afternoon and even further tonight. The rest of the northeast
ohio continues to see rapidly diminishing clouds as drier air
pushes into the region. Winds are expected to become very light
and variable overnight as air mass decouples. Dewpoint
temperatures upstream are in the upper 20s to lower 30s and
expecting this cooler air to move east toward the region
overnight. Therefore, expecting a widespread frost to develop
across the forecast area tonight and will hoist a frost advisory
late tonight through sunrise. Exception will be the northeast
snowbelt where the blanketing cloud cover should hang on long
enough to keep frost from forming. If they clear out much
faster, then we could see frost up there as well. Looking at
lows tonight in the middle 30s most areas and in the 40s in the
northeast.

High pressure moves east allowing moisture to advance east ahead of
the next storm system. The low pressure system will move east
through the central great lakes Tuesday and force a strong cold
front east across the local area Tuesday night. Precipitation will
move into the western portions of the forecast area by late tomorrow
afternoon. Can't rule out a possible rumble of thunder or two with
the front tomorrow night. Highs in the quick warm air advection
will recover back into the 60s tomorrow and then drop back to the
middle 40s west and lower 50s east in the cold air advection.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night
We begin the short term period with an upper level closed low over
southern ontario and the associated surface pressure very close to
vertically stacked with this upper low. The cold front will be
slowly exiting to the east during the day on Wednesday, with the
associated widespread rain exiting the forecast area as well. Cold
temperatures aloft move over the lake immediately following the cold
front, with temperatures at 850mb at or slightly below freezing and
near or just above -10 celsius at 700mb. With lake surface
temperatures around 17 to 18 degrees celsius, that will be near 20
degrees lake sfc to 850 temperature difference. Combined with
unidirectional northwest flow and good moisture from the upper level
low, and we have ourselves a solid setup for lake effect
precipitation over northern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania. Lake
induced CAPE will be upwards of 700 j kg, which should be enough
instability to support isolated thunderstorms as well. Moisture
lingers for quite a long time, persisting through Wednesday night
and most of Thursday. Most model guidance have low level moisture
finally pushing off to the east Thursday night, with it completely
dry by at least Friday afternoon. With high pressure building in
from the west on Friday, clouds should be clearing out most of the
day Friday. With high temperatures around 60, which will be higher
than the previous two days, it should be nice fall day.

Long term Friday through Monday
With surface high pressure and the upper level ridge building in
from the west, skies should continue to become clear through the
night, with radiational cooling producing fairly cool overnight
temperatures. High pressure will have moved off to the mid-atlantic
by Saturday morning, allowing southerly winds to advect warmer air
into the region, bringing high temperatures back into the upper 60s
on Saturday. The pattern becomes more amplified on Sunday with a
deep upper level trough building over the plains on Sunday. This
trough will introduce the chance for widespread precipitation across
the area on Sunday night into Monday.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
Vfr and fair weather expected next 24-hours as high pressure
remains in control. Skies trend mainly clear at most of the
terminals. However, lingering lake-effect cloud cover over near
keri should move offshore by about 12z wed. Patchy fog may form
for several hours around daybreak Tuesday, especially inland
from lake erie. However, forecast confidence is low for fog
formation. Regional surface winds trend light and variable
through late Tuesday morning. Thereafter, surface winds become
southerly and breezy.

Outlook Non-vfr possible in showers and isolated
thunderstorms Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Non-vfr
possible in lake-effect rain showers at near keri late
Wednesday morning through Thursday and perhaps Friday morning.

Marine
The small craft advisory will continue through this evening. Most
observations along the lakeshore are showing waves of around 4 feet
with west winds as high as 25 knots. Winds are expected to slowly
diminish this evening into tonight as high pressure builds in from
the west. As this high pressure moves east of lake erie and low
pressure develops over the western lakes, southerly winds increase
up to 10 to 20 knots 18z Tuesday through 06z Wednesday. The
aforementioned area of low pressure progresses eastward Tuesday
evening and Wednesday overnight, deepening to 998mb over lake huron
by 12z Wednesday. The associated cold front will move east across
the lake on Wednesday, with fairly strong westerly winds of 20 to 25
knots immediately behind the front. A fairly strong pressure
gradient is expected to persist over the lake through at least 00z
Friday, through which at least small craft advisory conditions will
be present. Gale force winds may be possible over the open waters of
lake erie briefly late Wednesday night, which will largely be
dependent on how strong the low pressure will deepen to. A couple
models have the low getting to as low as 994 mb on Wednesday
afternoon. Waves of up to 10 feet may be possible late Wednesday
night over the open waters of lake erie. Winds will diminish through
the day on Friday as high pressure builds in from the west.

Southerly winds of 10 to 15 knots develops on Saturday as this high
pressure pushes off to the east coast.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... Frost advisory from 2 am to 9 am edt Tuesday for ohz003-
006>010-013-014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047.

Pa... Frost advisory from 2 am to 9 am edt Tuesday for paz002-003.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lombardy
near term... Jaszka lombardy
short term... Saunders
long term... Saunders
aviation... Jaszka
marine... Saunders


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 10 mi74 min W 11 G 13 53°F
45165 10 mi34 min W 7.8 G 9.7 53°F 60°F1 ft36°F
TWCO1 10 mi34 min W 8.9 G 11 60°F
CMPO1 12 mi104 min W 2.9 G 2.9 48°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 13 mi74 min W 13 G 14 54°F 1019 hPa (+0.7)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 21 mi56 min SW 2.9 G 5.1 49°F 62°F1018.8 hPa34°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 21 mi56 min W 4.1 G 5.1 47°F 1019.3 hPa35°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 35 mi74 min SSW 4.1 G 4.1 49°F 1017.6 hPa (+0.7)
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 36 mi44 min W 12 G 16 55°F 1019.6 hPa37°F
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 38 mi89 min Calm 42°F 1019 hPa38°F
LORO1 49 mi44 min WSW 9.9 G 17 55°F

Wind History for Marblehead, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Toledo - Toledo Executive Airport, OH24 mi81 minN 010.00 miFair46°F35°F66%1019.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTDZ

Wind History from TDZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6NW4NW4W3W7W5W7W8W6W7W8SW12W14W10W11W10W10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.