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LEZ163 Expires:202312062115;;001565 Fzus61 Kcle 061418 Glfle
open lake forecast for lake erie national weather service cleveland oh 918 am est Wed dec 6 2023
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake erie
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
Synopsis.. A ridge averaging 30.20 inches will persist across the region through Friday. Low pressure 29.80 inches will move northeast into the lower great lakes region this weekend, extending a cold front east across lake erie on Sunday.
lez162>164-062115- detroit river lt. To maumee bay oh to reno beach oh beyond 5nm offshoreline to us-canadian border- reno beach to the islands oh beyond 5nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- the islands to vermilion oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- 918 am est Wed dec 6 2023
This afternoon..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. A slight chance of rain showers late. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. A slight chance of rain showers early. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain during the day, then rain Saturday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Rain during the day, then a chance of rain and snow Sunday night. Waves 3 to 5 feet.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 061800 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 100 PM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

SYNOPSIS
A high pressure ridge will build east across the area today and tonight departing to the southeast by Thursday and remaining there through Friday. A deepening low pressure system lifts northeast across the Great Lakes region Saturday and Sunday, bringing a strong cold front across the region. High pressure builds south of the area early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
12:45 PM Update...
Light snow out west should transition to a light rain/snow mix.
Latest radar observations suggest a weakening trend over the last hour or so, but most hi-res model guidance has some redevelopment of isolated rain/snow showers over the next couple hours (especially 20-22Z) near the I-75 corridor before that precipitation propagates eastward this evening.

Previous Discussion...
Some light lake effect snow showers continue across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania this morning. However, dry air entering the region is causing clouds to break up across Northwest Ohio and Lake Erie, and this has really allowed for any snow to be more isolated in nature this morning and have decreased PoPs. As a surface ridge enters the region today, flow will back and any lake effect snow will continue to diminish in coverage over Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. A little bit of moisture and energy aloft will move into Northwest Ohio late this afternoon and there is a non-zero chance for some rain or wet snow to pop up and have maintained a slight chance PoP. Otherwise, temperatures will remain cool with 30s across the board. Some sun will make it through the clouds but expect these clouds to fill back in ahead of the surface ridge.

For tonight into Thursday, a surface trough will move through the northeast Great Lakes region with a potent northwest flow jet halting the progress of a broader upper ridge. This combination will support some scattered snow chances in NW PA and extreme NE OH tonight into Thursday. Low level flow is southwest against the northwest flow upper jet and temperatures with this event are very marginal for much in the way of lake enhancement to get any noticeable accumulating snowfall totals.
This system will exit by mid-day on Thursday with clearing conditions through a large portion of the area. Temperatures tonight will be near freezing and temperatures on Thursday will warm considerably across the area with most in the 40s and maybe a stray 50 degree reading in NW Ohio.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Above-average temperatures are expected through the short term period as an upper-level ridge builds across the Eastern CONUS.
Highs will reach into the mid-50s on Friday, increasing further into the upper 50s to perhaps lower 60s on Saturday.

Initially, quiet weather will persist into Saturday morning under the large upper-level ridge. By Saturday afternoon and evening, precipitation aided by moist isentropic lift will begin to spread northeast into the region as a deep upper-level trough moves east across CONUS, strengthening and becoming negatively-tilted as it reaches the Eastern CONUS on Sunday. At the surface, a low pressure system will quickly strengthen as it moves northeastward from the ArkLaTex region on Saturday and into the Upper Great Lakes through Saturday night. Recent model trends have displaced this strengthening surface low further north than previous forecasts. The heaviest and most widespread precipitation is expected late Saturday night into Sunday morning as a new area of low pressure develops across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, coincident with the arrival of a cold front through the Lower Great Lakes.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Active weather will persist through the long term period, beginning on Sunday as a cold front moves east through the area, ushering in a much cooler air mass across the region. Depending on the timing of the cold air in conjunction with a deepening low pressure system across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, there could be a period of moderate rain transitioning to snow Sunday evening and overnight.
Winds may still be gusty behind the cold front Sunday night into Monday, although for the most part, wind gusts are trending downwards, especially with the further north trend of the first low pressure system.

Precipitation chances will quickly diminish on Monday behind the cold front with only limited lake-effect activity expected as mean boundary-layer flow wavers from west to southwest. Weak upper-level ridging may build across the Great Lakes by Monday night into Tuesday with mainly dry weather expected for Tuesday.

Above-average temperatures in the 50s are expected for early Sunday ahead of the cold front, although temperatures will be quickly dropping throughout the day behind the front. Temperatures will return back to average to slightly below average for Monday and Tuesday with highs struggling to reach the 40-degree mark.

AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/
BKN/OVC conditions occurring areawide this afternoon with ceilings ranging 1500-3500 ft. Isolated rain/snow is occurring across the area this afternoon, shifting eastward to the snowbelt of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania tonight.
Should be near-zero impact from these showers, although there have been a couple ASOS sites that very briefly dropped to 2 SM visibility. Best chance for precipitation impacts will be at or near KERI where snow showers are possible tonight. Precipitation should largely exit the area by Thursday morning. Patchy to sporadic MVFR are possible through tonight before clouds clear out from west to east on Thursday.

Cyclonic west to northwest flow of around 8 to 12 knots are expected this afternoon, becoming southwest tonight. Southwest winds strengthen to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots during daylight hours on Thursday.

Outlook...Widespread rain with non-VFR possible this Saturday through Sunday.

MARINE
A fairly quiet marine period is in store through much of the period with no headlines anticipated until Sunday.

North to northwest winds of 10 to 15 knots this morning will shift towards the south to southwest later this evening and overnight, increasing to 15 to 25 knots by Thursday with the higher end of winds remaining mainly in the open waters. Offshore flow will persist through Saturday. By Sunday, a cold front will move east across Lake Erie, ushering in west winds of 20 to 25 knots. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed for this time period.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

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