Thursday, July9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Put-in-Bay, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 9:11PM Thursday July 9, 2020 5:00 AM EDT (09:00 UTC) Moonrise 11:16PMMoonset 9:31AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ163 Expires:202007091415;;557071 Fzus61 Kcle 090744 Glfle Open Lake Forecast For Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 344 Am Edt Thu Jul 9 2020 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Erie Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis.. High pressure of 30.00 inches persists over lake erie through tonight. On Friday, a weak trough averaging 29.80 inches begins overspreading the lake from the west. A cold front will move east across lake erie Friday night through Saturday morning. Behind the front, the trough averaging 29.80 inches will linger over lake erie Saturday into Sunday. High pressure of 29.90 inches will build east over the lake Monday. Lez162>164-091415- lake erie open waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh- lake erie open waters from reno beach to the islands oh- lake erie open waters from the islands to vermilion oh- 344 am edt Thu jul 9 2020
Today..Light and variable winds becoming east 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the evening. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..South winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ163


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Put-in-Bay, OH
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location: 41.71, -83.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 090821 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 421 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

SYNOPSIS. Broad ridging across the Great Lakes will begin to weaken tonight as a shortwave trough moves east across the northern plains. The shortwave will strengthen towards Friday morning and help be the driver of a cold front into the area Friday night. This will usher in a more seasonable and drier airmass for the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. Satellite showing area of subsidence over the area this morning with mostly clear skies. Dewpoints across the region remained in the upper 60s overnight supporting "low" temperatures in the lower 70s for much of the area. This will give the area a few degree jump start from where we were yesterday at this same time. This combined with a slight increase in southerly flow this afternoon favor temperatures about 2 degrees higher today than we saw yesterday. With this trend in mind, much of the area can expect highs in the mid 90s. Have adjusted model guidance upwards as it struggles with increased latent heat when there are dry surface soil conditions, most notably in the northwest where rain has been spotty over the last few weeks. Air temperatures in the Toledo area could approach 100 degrees if afternoon convection is delayed or misses the area. Have trended slightly below model guidance on dewpoints, so the overall heat index values remain relatively unchanged in the mid to upper 90s, higher in northwest OH around 100-103F. Advisory area remains unchanged. Record highs look difficult to reach today but could see a run for it at CLE (97 1936) and TOL (100 1936).

The PWATs this afternoon will be edging higher around 1.6" with dewpoints in the upper 60s. This with daytime heating will favor MLCAPE values around 1,000-1,500 j/kg this afternoon. The subsidence is projected to be overcome with the increased instability and minimal CIN this afternoon would expect to see more storm activity today than yesterday. Again the primary lifting source will likely be the lake breeze, followed by pulse storm and cold pool development into the early evening. With minimal shear, any severe storms will be the product of collapsing tall storms possibly in the form of a wet microburst. Slow storm motions and a moist environment could favor heavy rain with the stronger storms, with high rainfall rates. However, coverage will be hit or miss.

Tonight there will be some marginal flattening of the ridge just north of the lake. A weak shortwave will move into MI from the west overnight likely continuing convection from the evening across portions of IN/MI. Will need to keep an eye on the amount of any upstream convection that could drift east into NW OH and the western basin late tonight, though models struggle to identify the amount of organization and coverage. Since the shortwave will be strengthening believe there is some potential for ongoing storms into the overnight. Any development will likely weakening as it pushes east, however as is often the case this time of year the warm lake can maintain CAPE and recharge storms. Cautiously keeping 20 pops in just the NW overnight.

The main focus for storm development will be on Friday. The previously mentioned shortwave and PV anomaly will promote more organized convection. Jet support is modest at best, however moisture pooling over the area will drive PWATs to around 1.8". Temperatures will be "cooler" Friday with highs in the lower 90s due to lower heights and increased cloud cover. This is still sufficient with a weak pressure gradient to develop a lake breeze. Believe this will be the initial phase of convection, followed by the more energized storms in the afternoon/evening. CAPE's will be >1,000 j/kg and we will be losing CIN early in the day allowing for moderate instability. Can't rule out severe storms given the added lift with the approaching trough, along with heavy rain.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. A shortwave trough should overspread the eastern Great Lakes and Upper OH Valley from the west Friday night. Simultaneously, the accompanying surface cold front should drift from far-western portions of our CWA to near the northeast OH/northwest PA border by daybreak Saturday. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected with the aforementioned features, especially along and ahead of the front. Low temperatures should reach the mid 60's to lower 70's.

On Saturday, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected once again as the aforementioned shortwave trough exits our CWA to the east, while another shortwave trough approaches from the Upper Midwest. These shortwave troughs will be embedded in a longwave trough deepening over the Great Lakes region and vicinity. At the surface, the cold front should exit northwest PA to the east by about midday. High temperatures should reach the upper 70's to mid 80's. The coolest highs are expected in northwest PA, where shower and thunderstorm coverage should be greatest along and ahead of the eastward-moving front.

Additional isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast Saturday night through Sunday night as the second shortwave trough continues approaching from the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes through Sunday and then overspreads our CWA Sunday night. Simultaneously, surface troughing lingers over our CWA. Lows mainly in the 60's are expected Saturday and Sunday nights. Sunday's highs should reach the 80's.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. For this period, the latest available runs of the ECMWF, EPS, and GEFS remain in good agreement, while the GFS remains somewhat of an outlier. Given this, expect shower and thunderstorm chances to diminish from west to east through Monday evening as the troughing at the surface and aloft exits to the east and high pressure at the surface and aloft builds from the west. Afternoon highs should reach the upper 70's to mid 80's on Monday and be followed by lows mainly in the 60's Monday night. By Tuesday, fair weather is expected CWA- wide and these fair weather conditions should persist through Wednesday as high pressure at the surface and aloft continues to build. Tuesday's highs should reach the 80's to perhaps 90 degrees, while Tuesday night's lows should dip into the 60's to perhaps 70 degrees. Wednesday will be warmer, with highs reaching at least the mid 80's to lower 90's. However, this day could be even hotter and that potential will continue to be monitored.

AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/. Warm and moist airmass over the area today with scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon/evening. Temperatures expected to be in the mid to upper 90s at most terminals this afternoon, and possibly 100 at TOL, impacting the density/lift needed for the shorter runways. Winds will remain light in variable with weak steering flow aloft, with a lake breeze development this afternoon expected to switch winds at ERI/CLE. Convection this afternoon will likely be initiated along the lake breeze as the lifting mechanism. Scattered (30%) coverage for most of the area, except ERI which will be in the lake shadow. Some hint of convection from MI drifting into NW OH late tonight before dissipating, potentially impacting TOL terminal. Otherwise another warm and quite night tonight. Conditions become more active on Friday as a cold front approaches.

Outlook . NON-VFR in a greater coverage of thunderstorms expected late Friday into Saturday as a front crosses the area.

MARINE. Light and variable winds with waves trending one foot or less are expected on Lake Erie as a weak high pressure ridge persists today and tonight. On Friday, a weak trough associated with an approaching cold front begins to overspread the lake from the west. Light and variable winds will gradually become southerly at about 5 to 10 knots ahead of the front as waves continue to trend one foot or less. The cold front will drift eastward across Lake Erie Friday night through Saturday morning. Ahead of the front, southerly winds of about 5 to 10 knots and waves no larger than 1 to 2 feet are expected. Behind the front, winds become westerly to northwesterly and increase to about 10 to 15 knots, with waves no larger than 1 to 3 feet through Monday. Simultaneously, the weak trough exits gradually to the east and is followed by high pressure building from the west by Monday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM EDT this evening for OHZ003-006>011-017>022-027>033-036>038-047. PA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Jamison NEAR TERM . Jamison SHORT TERM . Jaszka LONG TERM . Jaszka AVIATION . Jamison MARINE . Jaszka


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45165 10 mi150 min S 1.9 G 1.9 79°F 80°F69°F
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 10 mi60 min S 2.9 G 4.1 79°F
TWCO1 10 mi20 min S 5.1 G 7 80°F
CMPO1 12 mi90 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 73°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 13 mi60 min Calm G 1.9 76°F 1012.3 hPa (-0.7)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 21 mi42 min W 1.9 G 2.9 75°F 76°F1012.5 hPa69°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 21 mi42 min Calm G 1.9 74°F 1013 hPa68°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 35 mi60 min SW 2.9 G 4.1 74°F 1011.9 hPa (-0.6)
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 38 mi75 min Calm 69°F 1013 hPa68°F
LORO1 49 mi30 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1 77°F

Wind History for Marblehead, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Toledo - Toledo Executive Airport, OH24 mi67 minN 09.00 miFair72°F69°F91%1012.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTDZ

Wind History from TDZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5SW4S6SW7W34SW5S44S8S7N7NW19
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1 day agoS3CalmW3SW4CalmSW3W5N43--5NW4SE11SE11S9
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2 days agoCalmSE3E4SE5S4S5SW7SW6CalmSW6SW8S6CalmE7E6E6E6SE6S5S3SW4SW3S4SW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.