Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Put-in-Bay, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
12:30 AM Update...

The forecast remains on track overnight with no changes needed.
The light snow lifting across the northern tier of counties is tied to warm air advection and isentropic ascent ahead of a mid/upper trough progressing into the western Great Lakes and surface low tracking through the northern Great Lakes. This snow will be largely north of the region by 08Z, and it is also fighting low-level dry air leading to some virga, so the chance PoPs the next few hours look good. We will then mostly be in a dry slot until the snow moves back in ahead of the cold front in the morning.

900 pm update...
The ongoing near term forecast remains on track with no adjustments needed at this time.

Previous discussion...
Even with the appearance of warm air advection this afternoon, wind chills remain below zero across the region, generally ranging between -5F and -10F. Temperatures should rebound into the 20s by Thursday afternoon, though wind chills will remain in the low teens with a persistent southwesterly wind. Wind chills may return to near zero by early Friday morning.

Recent water vapor satellite reveals a weak shortwave across southern Indiana this afternoon, with a much more broad upper- level trough trailing behind. Limited moisture associated with this initial shortwave and its brief duration should only allow for about a half-inch of light snow accumulation overnight into early Thursday morning. Following a brief lull Thursday morning into the early afternoon, snow is expected to return from northwest to southeast across the area as the upper-level trough slowly moves east through the Great Lakes. There is a small chance for some of these snow showers to be more "squally" in nature along the trough axis/cold front Thursday afternoon and evening, evident by shallow low-level CAPE around 20 to 40 J/kg and a modest snow squall parameter of 1 to 2 via the NAM. Given cold antecedent ground temperatures, roads could quickly become slick, particularly following sunset.

For the most part, snow accumulations into Friday morning should generally yield between 1 to 2 inches, though recent HRRR data suggests a low potential for upwards of 4 inches of snow across Northwest Pennsylvania where rates may reach 1 inch per hour at times Thursday evening and overnight along the trough axis.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Broad upper level trough will glide east across the local area late this week. Light lake effect snow will likely be ongoing Friday morning before eventually lifting north and diminishing in intensity as a mid level ridge and drier air approach from the west. Surface high pressure will bring a brief window of dry weather Friday night through most of Saturday. PoPs increase late Saturday night as low pressure centered over the Northern Great Lakes approaches while dragging a cold front eastward.

High temperatures in the upper teens to lower 20s on Friday will rebound into the upper 20s to lower 30s by Saturday. Overnight low temperatures remain chilly Friday night as they settle in the single digits with sub-zero wind chills. Warmer by Saturday night with lows in the lower 20s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Cold front will be gliding east across the local area on Sunday which will support scattered lake effect snow showers downwind of Lake Erie. Broad troughing with multiple shortwaves moving across the Great Lakes region will likely support periods of lake snow showers through the long term. High temperatures generally in the lower 30s will warm into the mid to upper 30s by Wednesday.
Overnight lows generally dip into the low 20s each night.

AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/
Light snow will bring periods of MVFR and occasional IFR to KTOL over the next hour or two before the snow lifts north of the region allowing for VFR at all terminals the rest of the overnight. However, light snow will move back in ahead of a cold front from west to east this morning, starting around 13Z at KTOL and KFDY and between 15 and 17Z at KCLE and KMFD. The snow will reach KCAK and KYNG by 18Z and KERI by 19Z. Once the snow arrives, cigs and vis will drop to MVFR, with occasional IFR.
The snow will likely become a little heavier from KCLE points east, so brought in TEMPO groups for 1 mile visibilities there, but they could go lower at times. The widespread snow will transition to lake-effect snow showers by mid evening into tonight, but W winds will mainly bring these into KERI, so have the other sites drying out with visibilities and cigs gradually improving to VFR.

SW winds of 10-15 knots early this morning will gradually veer to W this afternoon and evening, with occasional gusts of 20 knots, especially at KERI.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in snow showers and low ceilings through Friday morning. Additional Non- VFR possible in snow showers Saturday night into Sunday.

MARINE
Ice Advisory for the central and eastern basins of Lake Erie has been extended through Thursday morning and expanded east. The Ice Advisory now covers the open waters from Avon Point to Ripley NY.
Southerly winds of 20 to 25 knots through tonight may cause new lake ice to shift and could close shipping channels on Lake Erie.
Temperatures will remain in the teens to lower 20s allowing for moderate ice growth to continue.

Generally southwesterly to westerly winds 15-20 knots may briefly turn northwesterly on Friday before returning southwesterly through the weekend. By Saturday, southwesterly winds will increase to 20-25 knots. Small Craft Advisory issuance has been suspended until further notice for nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Ripley NY due to extensive ice cover.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.