Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rocky Ridge, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
615 am update...
There are no changes or adjustments needed to the ongoing near term forecast at this time.

Previous discussion...
The main forecast message for the near term period is very warm and unsettled weather. The Ohio Valley region in under a quasi- zonal mid and upper level at this time. This near- zonal flow will continue through Tuesday. There is a weak stationary front near the Ohio River this morning. There is also a weak mid level disturbance in the 500 mb flow near the Mid- Mississippi Valley this morning that will slowly track eastward over the next 24 to 36 hours. This mid level disturbance will help lift the stationary front northward as a warm front later today into Tuesday.

The weather will start out with fair conditions along with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies and dry. The warm front will slowly start to lift northward this afternoon into Central Ohio. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon with the highest POPs closer to the Highway 30 corridor and southward. High temperatures today will range front the middle 70s to the lower 80s. We will hold on to chance to likely POPs into the overnight for most of northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. The lower POPs will be confined to northwest Ohio.

The warm front will move through late tonight and be north of Lake Erie by morning. PW values will increase to nearly 1.9" in the atmosphere by midday Tuesday. It will be a very humid airmass with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
The mid level disturbance in the 500 mb flow will be right overhead during the day Tuesday. This disturbance will aid in the development of widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms during the late morning and through the afternoon hours on Tuesday. The highest POPs will be over north central and northeast Ohio as well as NWPA. Lower POPs will again favor northwest Ohio on Tuesday. While organized strong convection is not anticipated, slow moving storms and localized heavy rainfall may be an impact. High temperatures will range in the middle 70s to near 80 over NEOH and NWPA where the greater POPs will be.
Northwest Ohio will see less rain chances but warmer temperatures in the mid 80s on Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A series of shortwaves aloft will move across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Maintained slight chance to chance PoPs for any showers associated with the shortwaves Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. A deepening upper level trough and surface cold front will approach from the west during the day on Wednesday.
Moderate instability and deep-layer shear, models generally showing 750-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 20-30 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear, are forecasted to develop ahead of the cold front Wednesday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are expected to form ahead of the cold front with the potential for some to reach severe limits given the aforementioned environmental parameters. Showers and thunderstorms continue through Thursday as the cold front pushes east across the region. Warm overnight lows are forecasted to settle in the upper 60s Tuesday and Wednesday night. Highs on Wednesday will rise into the 80s. Slightly cooler behind the cold front with highs on Thursday in the upper 70s and lows in the lower 60s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure will build across the Ohio Valley Friday and persist through the long term period. As large scale ridging builds over the region through the weekend above normal temperatures are forecasted areawide. The CPC 6-10 day temperature outlook highlights our forecast area with high probabilities of above normal temperatures.
Have some slight chance to chance PoPs this weekend as a shortwave aloft moves across the region.

AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/
The overall expectations will be VFR conditions for this TAF update outside of any scattered showers or storms later today and tonight. There are some MVFR to low end MVFR ceilings at CAK and YNG this morning. We expected these MVFR ceilings to lift to VFR ceilings later this morning after 15z. There are PROB30 groups later this afternoon from 18z to 24z for possible scattered showers and thunderstorms as well as MVFR ceilings/visibilities. We did not put PROB30 at TOL due to lower chance for scattered convection in NWOH. Scattered rain showers may continue into the overnight for CAK, YNG, and ERI.
Winds will remain easterly or northeasterly around 4 to 7 knots through the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with periodic showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday, best chance Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday into Thursday.

MARINE
An area of high pressure over the Great Lakes region will keep easterly winds 5-10 knots in place through tonight. An area of low pressure moves north across the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes region allowing for winds to shift southerly by early Tuesday morning. Generally offshore flow 5-10 knots remains in place through early Wednesday morning before a system approaches the lake from the west. Southwesterly winds 10-15 knots during the day on Wednesday will increase to 15-20 knots Wednesday night into Thursday as a cold front moves west to east across the lake. Behind the cold front winds turn northwesterly and diminish to 10-15 knots. Will continue to monitor the need for small craft advisories and beach hazards statements with the mid-week system. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight through Thursday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.