Painesville, OH Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Painesville, OH

June 18, 2024 9:15 AM EDT (13:15 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:48 AM   Sunset 9:04 PM
Moonrise 5:02 PM   Moonset 2:06 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LEZ147 Willowick To Geneva-on-the Lake Oh-geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh-conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 932 Pm Edt Mon Jun 17 2024

Rest of tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.

Tuesday - South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.

Tuesday night - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.

Wednesday - South winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday.
the water temperature off toledo is 72 degrees, off cleveland 67 degrees, and off erie 68 degrees.

LEZ100
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Painesville, OH
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Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 180958 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 558 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
An upper level ridge will persist over the region through this week, resulting in widespread near-record temperatures across the area with isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible each day. The next system won't arrive until the end of the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
600 AM Update...
Only minor POP edits today with some of the latest data, but still expecting scattered storms today, peaking with heating, which there should be plenty of again. Clouds from storms and rain cooled air in precipitation will either cap the max temps a bit or provide some relief for s short period of time.

Previous Discussion...
Going to use some degree of a persistence forecast here on the periphery of the dominant upper level ridge that has provided the first day of heat in what will be a week of above normal temperatures. The more recent forecasts have seen either an increase in the low/mid level moisture supporting convective cloud growth, or that the models are finally resolving what was always going to be there much better. Satellite imagery is showing a solid connection to a tropical moisture feed from the Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche providing the moisture for the convection. Plenty of SBCAPE from high dewpoints and air temperatures in this environment to get scattered thunderstorm activity for the entire region, again, in a south to north type flow. With relatively freely rising parcels in surface to 700mb lapse rates eclipsing 8C/km, some drier air aloft and inverted V soundings will lend to another day with wind gust threats despite a relative lack of shear. Pockets of low level f-gen help with initiation as will a couple of weak waves aloft.
Temperatures on the high side again and will leave the Heat Advisory in place, but precipitation cooling and cloud cover will keep some locations in check in terms of temperatures. Some locations not affected by this could still get into the mid to upper 90s once again.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
The heat wave and headlines will continue through the short term period with daily afternoon heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Not much relief is expected at night either with low temperatures in the 70s.

Only real change to the forecast is an increased risk for afternoon isolated strong thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday as moderate to strong instability will pool across the southern and eastern Great Lakes. Weak shear less than 20 knots is expected, so anticipate any thunderstorms that do develop will be poorly organized and generally short-lived. These storms will primarily carry a damaging wind risk given steep low-level lapse rates and large theta-e differences.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
One last surge of extreme heat may arrive on Saturday ahead of an approaching upper-level low across the Upper Great Lakes. The current headlines may need to be extended a day further through Saturday as heat indices reach the upper 90s to lower 100s in the afternoon. Moderate to strong instability across the Lower Great Lakes may result in isolated strong thunderstorms on Saturday, though anticipate any storms that develop to be poorly organized and generally short-lived given the weak shear in place.

The better potential for more organized strong thunderstorms will arrive on Sunday as a well-defined upper-level low moves east across the Upper Great Lakes, extending a surface cold front through the area. Moderate to strong instability appears to remain in place combined with 30 to 35 knots of southwesterly mid-level flow.

Behind the front, more cooler and more seasonable weather will arrive, with temperatures in the low to mid-80s on Monday.
Anticipate dry weather conditions as a surface high briefly builds in across the Great Lakes.

AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/
Transitioned to VCTS/CB for scattered thunderstorm activity today given how convection materialized yesterday. Any hints of organization as the storms begin to form after 16Z or so would merit a change to prevailing or TEMPO groups for the TSRA potential. Storms will be out there, and it all boils down to the hit or miss philosophy of the development today. Coverage of storms will wane after 22Z. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions and cumulus formation with heating during the late morning through evening hours. Winds generally with a southerly component less than 10kts away from convective activity. Gusts higher in storms.

Outlook...Primarily VFR expected through Friday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon.

MARINE
A generally quiet marine forecast is in store for Lake Erie as a large upper-level ridge remains across the Eastern CONUS, resulting in limited surface flow. Only concern will be in the afternoon and early evening hours this week as daily isolated to scattered thunderstorms could bring strong wind gusts and small hail.

CLIMATE
A prolonged stretch of hot weather is expected this week.
Temperatures are forecast to approach or exceed record highs on several days. The records for Tuesday, June 18 to Friday, June 21 are listed below for our official climate sites.

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 06-18 98(1994) 93(1994) 96(1944) 96(1944) 95(1994) 92(2018)
06-19 98(1995) 94(1994) 92(1995) 94(1994) 94(1994) 92(1931)
06-20 98(1953) 94(1988) 96(1988) 95(1933) 95(1933) 92(2016)
06-21 100(2022) 96(1988) 95(2022) 97(1933) 98(1933) 95(1933)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ003-006>014-017>023- 027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for PAZ001>003.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 4 mi45 minSSE 8.9G12 81°F 68°F30.0972°F
45207 7 mi35 minSSW 5.8G9.7 79°F 70°F1 ft30.1070°F
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 17 mi105 minS 6G12
45206 20 mi35 minS 5.8G9.7 80°F 70°F0 ft30.0770°F
45164 24 mi75 minS 3.9G5.8 73°F 69°F1 ft
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 24 mi45 min0G2.9 82°F 68°F30.10
45208 26 mi35 minWSW 3.9G9.7 77°F 67°F0 ft30.1170°F
ASBO1 27 mi75 minS 7G8.9
45176 30 mi35 minS 5.8G7.8 77°F 71°F1 ft30.1070°F
45205 31 mi35 min7.8G12 80°F 70°F0 ft30.0869°F
45196 37 mi45 minSSW 3.9G5.8 76°F 71°F1 ft30.1171°F
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 40 mi75 minSSE 6G7
45204 49 mi35 minSW 5.8G9.7 70°F0 ft


Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KLNN LAKE COUNTY EXECUTIVE,OH 8 sm20 minSSW 0610 smClear82°F72°F70%30.15
KCGF CUYAHOGA COUNTY,OH 17 sm30 minS 0710 smClear82°F72°F70%30.17
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Wind History graph: CGF
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Cleveland, OH,




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