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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mentor-on-the-Lake, OH

June 25, 2024 6:14 AM EDT (10:14 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:50 AM   Sunset 9:05 PM
Moonrise 11:12 PM   Moonset 8:34 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LEZ147 Expires:202406250230;;595214 Fzus51 Kcle 241946 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 346 pm edt Mon jun 24 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez145>147-250230- vermilion to avon point oh-avon point to willowick oh- willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh- 346 pm edt Mon jun 24 2024

Tonight - Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mostly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.

Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Tuesday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Wednesday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday.
the water temperature off toledo is 76 degrees, off cleveland 68 degrees, and off erie 73 degrees.

LEZ100
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mentor-on-the-Lake, OH
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Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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459 FXUS61 KCLE 250809 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 409 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will continue to move east across the northern Great Lakes region, moving a warm front north today followed by a cold front Wednesday. High pressure returns for Thursday and Friday before another low pressure impacts the region this weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
To start off, this forecast is extremely tricky given the upstream MCS currently ongoing and how this will continue to evolve as it tracks south-southeast towards the area. Hi-res models diverge quite a bit in the handling of this system and there are multiple potential outcomes that can impact the area. The first is that the MCS continues to decay, reaching the northwest periphery of the area near 15Z and resulting in locally gusty winds and heavy rainfall keeping overall impacts fairly minor. The other potential outcome will be that the strength of the MCS maintains and surges south across Lake Erie, impacts a larger portion of the area with strong winds, heavy rain, and isolated hail. There are many factors that will determine how this evolves, including how much instability will ramp up ahead of the MCS and more importantly if that will be enough to break the cap. High EMLs and steep mid-level lapse rates may be able to continue the decaying trend of the MCS, but again if the instability ramps up quick ahead of it then that may be enough to generate more surface based storms and increase the potential for damaging wind gusts.

As this initial round of showers pushes south and continues to decay, a warm front will move across the area late afternoon/early evening, resulting in an increase of WAA and moisture across the area. It is important to note that due to the models slowing the progression of the warm front east, high temperatures for today are not only forecast to climb into the low to mid 80s. There remains a lot of uncertainty in any additional convection this afternoon and into the overnight hour, specifically with uncertainty in how well the atmosphere will recover after this mornings convection. Given the increasing moisture and diurnally driven instability, opted to maintain a chance of PoPs this afternoon into the evening ahead of an approaching cold front. Temperatures tonight will drop into the upper 60s to low 70s. To account for the potential of severe weather today and tonight, SPC and WPC has placed much of the area in a Day 1 Marginal Risk for severe weather and excessive rainfall. Primary concerns will be strong, damaging winds and localized flooding.

Late tonight and on Wednesday, a cold front associated with the aforementioned low pressure will begin to move east across the area.
With good synoptic support and strong isentropic lift, expect another round of showers and thunderstorms to impact the area for Wednesday. To account for this severe potential, SPC & WPC has placed much of the area in a Day 2 Marginal Risk for severe weather and excessive rainfall. The primary hazard with these storms will be damaging winds and efficient, heavy rainfall which may result in localized flooding. High temperatures on Wednesday will climb into the mid to upper 70s.

Again, it is important to note that this entire forecast is highly dependent on the evolution of the ongoing MCS over the upper Midwest and is valid to change/be adjusted in the coming updates as models begin to handle the evolving complex better.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
The short term forecast period will be fairly quiet, especially compared to the days before and day after the period. A cold front will be exiting the forecast area on Wednesday night and have quickly fading PoPs with clearing skies and falling temperatures into the lower 60s. High pressure will build in behind the cold front for Thursday and Thursday night and temperatures will be cooler than normal in the 70s during the day. Clear conditions and a decoupling atmosphere should allow for temperatures to fall considerably on Thursday night into the 50s with some upper 40s here and there, mainly NE OH and NW PA. The surface high pressure will shift east for Friday and return flow back into the region will allow for temperatures to climb back into the 80s. The return flow will also allow for better moisture to return with 60 degree dew points returning by evening. Shower and thunderstorm activity upstream will start to enter the region on Friday night. While the atmosphere will have more moisture to work with by Friday night, a stabilizing air mass with nightfall will allow for just some scattered convection with minimal concerns.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A cold front with a supporting upper trough will move through the region on Saturday and allow for widespread chances of showers and thunderstorms. The intensity of convection will be based mainly on the timing, which at this point could be during the afternoon hours, so storms could have some punch with them. Temperatures before any showers and storms on Saturday could rise into the upper 80s and perhaps give 90 degrees a brief tap, if the system slows up a bit.
The trend for Sunday into Monday will be dry with high pressure building back into the region and temperatures will remain slightly below normal with the cooler air mass in place behind the cold front.

AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/
VFR conditions should persist across all terminals for the remainder of tonight and for much of the day on Tuesday.
However, there is a large amount of uncertainty with how an upstream MCS will impact the area Tuesday morning. Some hi-res models suggest it weakening when others suggest it surging south, and there is little agreement with the exact path it will take. The highest confidence in the remnants impacting any terminal is for KTOL and KFDY. The best timing for initial onset of precipitation is generally around 15Z, but will need to continue to monitor the ongoing convection and update as needed.
Once this surges south, a warm front will also be lifting north and behind this boundary winds will increase from the south- southwest to 12-15 knots, gusting up to 25 knots. Locally higher winds are possible in any thunderstorms, along with reduction to MVFR and possibly IFR visibilities. After sunset, winds will weaken to 5-10 knots as a cold front approaches from the west.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible, but given the spread in model agreement for the morning convection, opted to just handle this with VCTS or a TEMPO for thunderstorms producing MVFR distances. It is important to note that while confidence remains low on exact timing and placement of weather on Tuesday, there is a general consensus amongst models that there will be impactful weather which may result in visibility/ceiling reduction to non-VFR. Definitely a day to keep an eye on the forecast and all updates as this will be an evolving situation.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms today and Wednesday. Non-VFR possible again in showers and thunderstorms on Saturday.

MARINE
High pressure will continue to the east of the region today and return flow with south to southwest winds behind a warm front will persist across the lake. The pressure gradient and surface winds will increase later this morning and into the afternoon as a storm complex enters from the northwest and will allow for winds of 20-25 kt for a 6-8 hour period. Believe the 20 kt sustained mark gets to about Cleveland and have extended the Small Craft Advisory east. The window for stronger winds is later than previously forecasted and have a later end time to encapsulate the entire event. Showers and storms will be possible across the basin today and tonight and convective marine headlines will be possible. A cold front will cross the lake on Wednesday and flow will become northwest. The pressure gradient over the lake does not look impressive enough to have substantial northwest flow to allow for a great increase in waves. Flow will become lighter and northerly with high pressure on Thursday. Southeast flow returns to the lake on Friday with a warm front lifting across the region, as high pressure moves east. A cold front will cross the lake on Saturday. Southwest flow will increase ahead of the feature and could approach the need for a headline.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142>146.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
45207 1 mi34 minSSE 9.7G16 70°F 75°F0 ft29.8858°F
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 5 mi56 minSSE 9.9G13 69°F 75°F29.8757°F
45206 15 mi34 minS 12G18 72°F 75°F0 ft29.8759°F
45164 18 mi74 minSSW 16G21 73°F 71°F2 ft
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 19 mi56 minSSW 1.9G5.1 68°F 73°F29.88
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 23 mi104 minS 6G11
45176 24 mi44 minS 9.7G9.7 70°F 73°F1 ft29.8963°F
45205 26 mi34 min7.8G12 71°F 75°F0 ft29.8859°F
45196 31 mi54 minS 14G18 71°F 73°F1 ft29.8861°F
45208 32 mi34 minSSW 12G16 66°F 74°F0 ft29.8760°F
ASBO1 33 mi74 minS 7
45204 43 mi34 minS 14G18 75°F1 ft
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 46 mi74 minSE 2.9G5.1
LORO1 47 mi44 minS 9.9G11 69°F


Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KLNN LAKE COUNTY EXECUTIVE,OH 3 sm19 minS 0510 smClear64°F54°F68%29.92
KCGF CUYAHOGA COUNTY,OH 13 sm19 minS 0710 smClear66°F55°F68%29.95
KBKL BURKE LAKEFRONT,OH 22 sm21 minSSE 1010 smClear72°F55°F57%29.91
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Wind History graph: CGF
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Cleveland, OH,




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