Friday, July10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Michigan City, IN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:21AMSunset 8:24PM Friday July 10, 2020 1:10 AM CDT (06:10 UTC) Moonrise 11:55PMMoonset 10:47AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ046 Michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 1038 Pm Edt Thu Jul 9 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through late Friday night...
Overnight..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Numerous showers with scattered Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots veering northwest 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 6 feet in the afternoon.
Friday night..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet overnight.
Saturday..Northwest wind 5 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off michigan city is 79 degrees.
LMZ046 Expires:202007101030;;601458 FZUS53 KIWX 100238 NSHIWX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1038 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ046-101030-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Michigan City, IN
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location: 41.72, -86.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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FXUS63 KIWX 100556 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 156 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 810 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase tonight from west to east as the next system approaches with a line of storms that is poised to move into the area. These higher rain chances will persist into Friday. A few of the storms may produce some brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds overnight tonight, especially across northwest Indiana into far southwest Lower Michigan. Highs tomorrow into the upcoming weekend will reach the mid to upper 80s.

UPDATE. Updated at 145 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

A line of storms is currently poised to move in from the west ahead of a low centered near the WI/IL border just west of the Lake. Some heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible, but it still appears as though severe threat will be quite marginal. While cannot rule out isolated severe gust overnight west of I-69, generally expecting sub-severe wind gusts given marginal nature to shear/instability combination across the area.

SHORT TERM. (This Evening through Friday) Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Convection has been a little slow to develop over the area today mostly due to a lack of upper forcing and lowers dewpoints. Recent regional radar and satellite imagery has shown a few storms try to initiate, but think we are still an hour or two before storms really start to develop across the area. This initial round of storms should be similar to previous day storms due to weak shear and strong instability. A strong to severe storm can't be ruled out with damaging wind gusts in the form of downburst as well as torrential rainfall bring the primary hazards.

Late this evening and into the overnight hours models continue to show the MCS over E IA/NW IL progressing eastwards in response to the closed upper low over western IA. Models show this MCS reaching our western zones between 02z and 04z which is not the best timing for severe weather to occur. With that being said, enough low level moisture and residual heating should result in MLCAPE around 1500 initially before dropping to around 1000 J/kg towards 06z. Deep shear also won't be terrible, but still holds around 20kt. Considering these factors agree with the Marginal area in the SPC Day 1 Outlook (generally west of HWY 31) as damaging wind gusts would be possible across the western zones as this decaying MCS moves in. Further east, the environment will be less favorable for storm organization and thus chances for severe weather are low, but a rogue gust can't be ruled out. Could see a lull in convective activity overnight as low level stability increases, but can't be ruled out given the upper forcing from the approaching low.

Upper low slowly moves across central Lake Michigan and into lower Michigan over the course of the day Friday. This will help to re- initiate convection throughout the morning and midday hours, but should see the greatest develop occur during the afternoon. This will correspond with a reinforcing cold/cool front catching up to the low. This should happen around the time as storms are moving across far NE IN/NW OH/SE lower MI. Wouldn't be surprised to see a strong to marginally storm at this point if we can get a few breaks in the cloud cover earlier in the day. The NAM is the most aggressive with this possibility and spreads MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg over the far eastern zones. Regardless, storms should continue to march eastward with time.

LONG TERM. (Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Models still differ with respect to end time of storms Friday night into Saturday. Went with a middle of the road solution which clears storms out of the area after 06z Saturday. This should lead to a mostly dry Saturday with NW flow aloft. An embedded low within NW flow aloft, could spark a few storms Saturday night, but better confidence is storms spreading across the area over the course of the day Sunday. At this point, severe weather is not anticipated. There is the possibility of a lingering storm at the start of the day on Monday before the pattern turns warmer and drier through the middle of next week as the southwestern US ridge builds back towards the area.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night) Issued at 144 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

Shower/storm potential will increase overnight as a stronger upper level trough approaches from the west allowing pooled low level moisture axis associated with cold frontal boundary to push into northern Indiana. A line of convection is currently moving into northern Indiana and should reach SBN around 07Z. Still think that upstream convection will be on a sharp diminishing trend after 09Z, but with uptick in elevated instability and a likely outflow boundary pushing across the area, KFWA will also be inline for thunder chances. With lesser thunder confidence at KFWA, will continue to limit this to VCTS mention at this time. Unsettled pattern to linger into Friday as primary upper trough moves through the area, with continued showers/embedded thunder and eventual transition to mainly afternoon rain showers in deformation-type forcing portion of the storm. MVFR cigs are possible for a time on Friday, but currently expecting cigs to remain above fuel alternate criteria for the most part.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . Beach Hazards Statement from 10 AM CDT this morning through late tonight for INZ003.

MI . Beach Hazards Statement from 11 AM EDT this morning through late tonight for MIZ077.

OH . NONE. LM . Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ043-046.



UPDATE . Marsili/Cobb SYNOPSIS . Marsili/Cobb SHORT TERM . CM LONG TERM . CM AVIATION . Marsili/Cobb

Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45170 5 mi20 min 19 G 25 76°F 79°F1 ft73°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 34 mi52 min W 4.1 G 8 71°F 1009.1 hPa71°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 34 mi70 min SSE 1 G 2.9 81°F 1009.5 hPa (-1.0)
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 39 mi40 min WNW 6 G 7 73°F 72°F
CNII2 39 mi25 min Calm G 19 71°F 69°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Michigan City Municipal Airport, IN4 mi15 minW 15 G 2310.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F73°F94%1010.2 hPa
Valparaiso Porter County Municipal Airport, IN20 mi14 minWNW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F66°F71%1008.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMGC

Wind History from MGC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SW3CalmS3S3S5S6S5SW10
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN6N6N6N3N5CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW3CalmCalmN5NW3N5N3S4CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW13
G19
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.