Sunday, January17, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Michigan City, IN

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 4:46PM Sunday January 17, 2021 2:50 AM CST (08:50 UTC) Moonrise 11:07AMMoonset 10:38PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ046 Michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 310 Am Est Sun Jan 17 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 am est this morning...
Today..Northwest wind 5 to 15 knots. Snow. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Snow likely through midnight, then a chance of snow after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..West wind 10 to 15 knots. Slight chance of snow in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday night..West wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy through midnight then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet. The water temperature at st. Joseph is 36 degrees and at michigan city is 35 degrees.
LMZ046 Expires:202101171700;;044141 FZUS53 KIWX 170810 NSHIWX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Northern Indiana 310 AM EST Sun Jan 17 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ046-171700-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Michigan City, IN
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location: 41.72, -86.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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FXUS63 KIWX 170821 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 321 AM EST Sun Jan 17 2021

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 312 AM EST Sun Jan 17 2021

Snow will move in from west to east through the morning hours. A period of heavy snow could result in areas of slippery travel. This will transition to snow showers, and lake effect snow, by tonight. As a result, snow totals ending Monday morning will be greatest downwind of Lake Michigan.

SHORT TERM. (Today and Tonight) Issued at 312 AM EST Sun Jan 17 2021

Snow will move in from the west through this morning and taper off to snow showers tonight, though lake effect snow will become active at night. Snow totals will be greatest downwind of the lake, with 3- 4" expected ending Monday morning. Elsewhere, 1-2" is expected, with 2" totals favored in an area from Elkhart county southwest into White county.

A deepening upper-level low will move through our area today. Local 500-mb heights will fall from 534dm to 531dm, which grabs my attention for a period of banded snowfall. Forecast soundings from locations such as La Porte and South Bend show a deep DGZ (near 5,000 ft per high resolution members) and some omega overlap for at least a portion of this layer. Lapse rates could be stronger, as could the frontogenesis response on cross sections. However, cross sections do depict some instability aloft. Under this scenario, I am inclined to lean toward the higher end of the QPF forecasts, which in this case is closer to 0.20" in the western portion of the CWA (closer to 0.25" in the LES region). Given the dry source region of this air mass, snow ratios in the ballpark of 15:1 should be realized. Over the past couple of days, snow ratios have been as great as 20:1. Should ratios become as great at 20:1, widespread 2-3" totals could be realized.

Pavement temperatures are forecast to be near to above freezing for much of Sunday. Light snow for most of the event and over a majority of the area should yield mainly wet pavement. However, some travel issues are possible under the heaviest snow. Confidence is medium regarding timing, but the heaviest snow could occur from midday to the early afternoon hours toward northwest Indiana. The evolution of the snow band over the Quad Cities NWS office will need to be monitored. While there are indications of a strong band of snow (see above), the parameters could be even greater. In collaboration with NWS Chicago, these thoughts, plus the day of the week, I will forgo a winter weather advisory and offer an SPS instead.

As the upper-level low pulls away this evening, a period of lake effect snow is expected. Equilibrium levels near 5,000 ft and low- level lapse rates near 8C/km are positives. CAPE of only 100-200 j/kg and a poorly saturated DGZ are negatives. A quick 1 to 2" can be realized from Berrien extending into St. Joseph (IN). Duration could be a limiting factor to these totals as the overnight LES appears to be transient.

LONG TERM. (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 312 AM EST Sun Jan 17 2021

Any lingering lake effect snow will taper off through Monday as winds become westerly. A jet streak passing through early Tuesday morning now looks to send its precip shield through central Indiana; swing and a miss locally .

The Thursday timeframe is still rather murky . but to me it seems increasingly likely that both systems will miss our area. The southern stream jet is poised to remain focused toward the Tennessee River Valley Wednesday night and Thursday. As such, it seems most precipitation would pass to the south of our CWA. Looking poleward for Thursday and into Friday, a low passing through Ontario could activate some LES. Like Roller stated in his previous AFD, I too am skeptical with the GFS the main instigator due to it's stronger incoming surface high.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued at 1212 AM EST Sun Jan 17 2021

Mixed flight conditions this period owing to some drying near term followed by influence of upstream sw coming out of IA. IA sw disturbance will continue to slowly strengthen as it sharpens into srn IN by sunset today. On this upper low track, a robust ascent plume expected to develop/overlap the KSBN terminal late morning through late aftn with a period of LIFR in moderate snow likely. Brief/fleeting influence expected invof KFWA as warm advection wing lifts through early this aftn. Inbetween a brief pocket of dz and/or snow possible but of minimal impact as temps hover at or just above freezing overnight.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . NONE. MI . NONE. OH . NONE. LM . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LMZ043-046.



SYNOPSIS . Brown SHORT TERM . Brown LONG TERM . Brown AVIATION . T

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 1 mi31 min WSW 14 G 15 34°F 32°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 15 mi71 min WSW 6 G 7 34°F 1006.8 hPa
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 34 mi51 min SSW 6 G 8 33°F 1005.6 hPa (+0.0)32°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 34 mi51 min W 8.9 G 12 36°F 1005.1 hPa (-0.7)
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 39 mi31 min W 12 G 13 34°F 33°F
CNII2 39 mi21 min SSW 8 G 8.9 33°F 30°F
OKSI2 41 mi111 min N 1.9 G 4.1 36°F
FSTI2 44 mi111 min 34°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Michigan City Municipal Airport, IN4 mi56 minSW 510.00 miOvercast32°F32°F100%1006.1 hPa
Valparaiso Porter County Municipal Airport, IN20 mi55 minW 67.00 miOvercast32°F30°F92%1006.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMGC

Wind History from MGC (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS4S5S3CalmCalmS4S5S8S5SW5SE4CalmS3S4CalmCalmCalmSW4S5S3CalmSW5SW4SW3
2 days agoS7S5S4S7S6S7S6S8S6S6SE7SE7SE6SE4SE8SE8
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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