Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Michigan City, IN

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Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN

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FXUS63 KIWX 170821 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 321 AM EST Sun Jan 17 2021

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 312 AM EST Sun Jan 17 2021

Snow will move in from west to east through the morning hours. A period of heavy snow could result in areas of slippery travel. This will transition to snow showers, and lake effect snow, by tonight. As a result, snow totals ending Monday morning will be greatest downwind of Lake Michigan.

SHORT TERM. (Today and Tonight) Issued at 312 AM EST Sun Jan 17 2021

Snow will move in from the west through this morning and taper off to snow showers tonight, though lake effect snow will become active at night. Snow totals will be greatest downwind of the lake, with 3- 4" expected ending Monday morning. Elsewhere, 1-2" is expected, with 2" totals favored in an area from Elkhart county southwest into White county.

A deepening upper-level low will move through our area today. Local 500-mb heights will fall from 534dm to 531dm, which grabs my attention for a period of banded snowfall. Forecast soundings from locations such as La Porte and South Bend show a deep DGZ (near 5,000 ft per high resolution members) and some omega overlap for at least a portion of this layer. Lapse rates could be stronger, as could the frontogenesis response on cross sections. However, cross sections do depict some instability aloft. Under this scenario, I am inclined to lean toward the higher end of the QPF forecasts, which in this case is closer to 0.20" in the western portion of the CWA (closer to 0.25" in the LES region). Given the dry source region of this air mass, snow ratios in the ballpark of 15:1 should be realized. Over the past couple of days, snow ratios have been as great as 20:1. Should ratios become as great at 20:1, widespread 2-3" totals could be realized.

Pavement temperatures are forecast to be near to above freezing for much of Sunday. Light snow for most of the event and over a majority of the area should yield mainly wet pavement. However, some travel issues are possible under the heaviest snow. Confidence is medium regarding timing, but the heaviest snow could occur from midday to the early afternoon hours toward northwest Indiana. The evolution of the snow band over the Quad Cities NWS office will need to be monitored. While there are indications of a strong band of snow (see above), the parameters could be even greater. In collaboration with NWS Chicago, these thoughts, plus the day of the week, I will forgo a winter weather advisory and offer an SPS instead.

As the upper-level low pulls away this evening, a period of lake effect snow is expected. Equilibrium levels near 5,000 ft and low- level lapse rates near 8C/km are positives. CAPE of only 100-200 j/kg and a poorly saturated DGZ are negatives. A quick 1 to 2" can be realized from Berrien extending into St. Joseph (IN). Duration could be a limiting factor to these totals as the overnight LES appears to be transient.

LONG TERM. (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 312 AM EST Sun Jan 17 2021

Any lingering lake effect snow will taper off through Monday as winds become westerly. A jet streak passing through early Tuesday morning now looks to send its precip shield through central Indiana; swing and a miss locally .

The Thursday timeframe is still rather murky . but to me it seems increasingly likely that both systems will miss our area. The southern stream jet is poised to remain focused toward the Tennessee River Valley Wednesday night and Thursday. As such, it seems most precipitation would pass to the south of our CWA. Looking poleward for Thursday and into Friday, a low passing through Ontario could activate some LES. Like Roller stated in his previous AFD, I too am skeptical with the GFS the main instigator due to it's stronger incoming surface high.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued at 1212 AM EST Sun Jan 17 2021

Mixed flight conditions this period owing to some drying near term followed by influence of upstream sw coming out of IA. IA sw disturbance will continue to slowly strengthen as it sharpens into srn IN by sunset today. On this upper low track, a robust ascent plume expected to develop/overlap the KSBN terminal late morning through late aftn with a period of LIFR in moderate snow likely. Brief/fleeting influence expected invof KFWA as warm advection wing lifts through early this aftn. Inbetween a brief pocket of dz and/or snow possible but of minimal impact as temps hover at or just above freezing overnight.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . NONE. MI . NONE. OH . NONE. LM . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LMZ043-046.



SYNOPSIS . Brown SHORT TERM . Brown LONG TERM . Brown AVIATION . T

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN	1 mi	31 min	WSW 14 G 15	34°F				32°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN	15 mi	71 min	WSW 6 G 7	34°F			1006.8 hPa
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL	34 mi	51 min	SSW 6 G 8	33°F			1005.6 hPa (+0.0)	32°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI	34 mi	51 min	W 8.9 G 12	36°F			1005.1 hPa (-0.7)
CHII2 - Chicago, IL	39 mi	31 min	W 12 G 13	34°F				33°F
CNII2	39 mi	21 min	SSW 8 G 8.9	33°F				30°F
OKSI2	41 mi	111 min	N 1.9 G 4.1	36°F
FSTI2	44 mi	111 min		34°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Michigan City Municipal Airport, IN	4 mi	56 min	SW 5	10.00 mi	Overcast	32°F	32°F	100%	1006.1 hPa
Valparaiso Porter County Municipal Airport, IN	20 mi	55 min	W 6	7.00 mi	Overcast	32°F	30°F	92%	1006.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMGC

Wind History from MGC (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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