Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Michigan City, IN

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Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN

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FXUS63 KIWX 100556 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 156 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 810 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase tonight from west to east as the next system approaches with a line of storms that is poised to move into the area. These higher rain chances will persist into Friday. A few of the storms may produce some brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds overnight tonight, especially across northwest Indiana into far southwest Lower Michigan. Highs tomorrow into the upcoming weekend will reach the mid to upper 80s.

UPDATE. Updated at 145 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

A line of storms is currently poised to move in from the west ahead of a low centered near the WI/IL border just west of the Lake. Some heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible, but it still appears as though severe threat will be quite marginal. While cannot rule out isolated severe gust overnight west of I-69, generally expecting sub-severe wind gusts given marginal nature to shear/instability combination across the area.

SHORT TERM. (This Evening through Friday) Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Convection has been a little slow to develop over the area today mostly due to a lack of upper forcing and lowers dewpoints. Recent regional radar and satellite imagery has shown a few storms try to initiate, but think we are still an hour or two before storms really start to develop across the area. This initial round of storms should be similar to previous day storms due to weak shear and strong instability. A strong to severe storm can't be ruled out with damaging wind gusts in the form of downburst as well as torrential rainfall bring the primary hazards.

Late this evening and into the overnight hours models continue to show the MCS over E IA/NW IL progressing eastwards in response to the closed upper low over western IA. Models show this MCS reaching our western zones between 02z and 04z which is not the best timing for severe weather to occur. With that being said, enough low level moisture and residual heating should result in MLCAPE around 1500 initially before dropping to around 1000 J/kg towards 06z. Deep shear also won't be terrible, but still holds around 20kt. Considering these factors agree with the Marginal area in the SPC Day 1 Outlook (generally west of HWY 31) as damaging wind gusts would be possible across the western zones as this decaying MCS moves in. Further east, the environment will be less favorable for storm organization and thus chances for severe weather are low, but a rogue gust can't be ruled out. Could see a lull in convective activity overnight as low level stability increases, but can't be ruled out given the upper forcing from the approaching low.

Upper low slowly moves across central Lake Michigan and into lower Michigan over the course of the day Friday. This will help to re- initiate convection throughout the morning and midday hours, but should see the greatest develop occur during the afternoon. This will correspond with a reinforcing cold/cool front catching up to the low. This should happen around the time as storms are moving across far NE IN/NW OH/SE lower MI. Wouldn't be surprised to see a strong to marginally storm at this point if we can get a few breaks in the cloud cover earlier in the day. The NAM is the most aggressive with this possibility and spreads MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg over the far eastern zones. Regardless, storms should continue to march eastward with time.

LONG TERM. (Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Models still differ with respect to end time of storms Friday night into Saturday. Went with a middle of the road solution which clears storms out of the area after 06z Saturday. This should lead to a mostly dry Saturday with NW flow aloft. An embedded low within NW flow aloft, could spark a few storms Saturday night, but better confidence is storms spreading across the area over the course of the day Sunday. At this point, severe weather is not anticipated. There is the possibility of a lingering storm at the start of the day on Monday before the pattern turns warmer and drier through the middle of next week as the southwestern US ridge builds back towards the area.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night) Issued at 144 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

Shower/storm potential will increase overnight as a stronger upper level trough approaches from the west allowing pooled low level moisture axis associated with cold frontal boundary to push into northern Indiana. A line of convection is currently moving into northern Indiana and should reach SBN around 07Z. Still think that upstream convection will be on a sharp diminishing trend after 09Z, but with uptick in elevated instability and a likely outflow boundary pushing across the area, KFWA will also be inline for thunder chances. With lesser thunder confidence at KFWA, will continue to limit this to VCTS mention at this time. Unsettled pattern to linger into Friday as primary upper trough moves through the area, with continued showers/embedded thunder and eventual transition to mainly afternoon rain showers in deformation-type forcing portion of the storm. MVFR cigs are possible for a time on Friday, but currently expecting cigs to remain above fuel alternate criteria for the most part.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . Beach Hazards Statement from 10 AM CDT this morning through late tonight for INZ003.

MI . Beach Hazards Statement from 11 AM EDT this morning through late tonight for MIZ077.

OH . NONE. LM . Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ043-046.



UPDATE . Marsili/Cobb SYNOPSIS . Marsili/Cobb SHORT TERM . CM LONG TERM . CM AVIATION . Marsili/Cobb

Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
45170	5 mi	20 min	19 G 25	76°F	79°F	1 ft		73°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL	34 mi	52 min	W 4.1 G 8	71°F			1009.1 hPa	71°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI	34 mi	70 min	SSE 1 G 2.9	81°F			1009.5 hPa (-1.0)
CHII2 - Chicago, IL	39 mi	40 min	WNW 6 G 7	73°F				72°F
CNII2	39 mi	25 min	Calm G 19	71°F				69°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Michigan City Municipal Airport, IN	4 mi	15 min	W 15 G 23	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	75°F	73°F	94%	1010.2 hPa
Valparaiso Porter County Municipal Airport, IN	20 mi	14 min	WNW 7	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	77°F	66°F	71%	1008.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMGC

Wind History from MGC (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (2,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN

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