NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

LMZ046 Expires:202310050215;;497053 Fzus53 Kiwx 041943 Nshiwx
nearshore marine forecast national weather service northern indiana 343 pm edt Wed oct 4 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan
lmz043-046-050215- new buffalo mi to st joseph mi-michigan city in to new buffalo mi- 343 pm edt Wed oct 4 2023
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 3 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature at st. Joseph is 49 degrees and at michigan city is 48 degrees.

LMZ005
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 050116 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 916 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Rain moves from west to east beginning early Thursday morning.
Thunder is possible. Cooler with lake effect rain showers this weekend, followed by warming temperatures next week.

UPDATE
Issued at 911 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Previous forecast remains in good shape this evening. Broad, weak isentropic lift will increase late evening into the overnight as a pre-frontal moisture axis begins to shift eastward from northern Illinois into northwest Indiana. Low level dew point depressions remain fairly large, but KILX 00Z RAOB does show some good mid level moistening with some weak to modest mid level lapse rates providing some weak elevated instability. As weak pre-frontal forcing/moisture axis shift east overnight into Thursday morning, expecting rain showers to increase in coverage across northwest third of the area. An initial highly sheared vort max across MN/western WI this evening will continue to weaken and get sheared to the northwest. This will help prolong residence time of deeper moisture axis across northwest portions of the forecast area through Thursday morning where greatest stormtotal rainfall amounts are expected. Some embedded thunder still appears to be possible, particularly Thursday morning during pre-frontal forcing phase.

SHORT TERM
(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

A cold front over the Central Plains will move through the forecast area over the next 24 hours or so bringing much-needed rain. Some radar returns have been noted overhead but dew point depressions of 20 degrees have prevented precipitation from reaching the ground.
Similarly, some high resolution guidance depicts rain showers soon after 00z (8 PM EDT) tonight near Lake Michigan. I suspect this will be virga to start; forecast soundings confirm this. So, I have slowed down POPs tonight prior to 2AM EDT.

High resolution members are in good agreement that rain will impact communities west of US 31 prior to 8 AM Thursday, especially near Lake Michigan; the southwest extent is a little less certain. Rain will advance slowly east through the day. CAPE along the cold front will be shy of 1000 j/kg and mid-level lapse rates near 5C/km suggest a low thunder threat; will continue a "slight chance" of thunder.

Temperature-wise, expect highs in the mid-70s over northwest Ohio will rain will arrive late in the day. Meanwhile in the western half of the forecast area, highs will be in the upper 60s.

The collaborated rainfall amounts through Friday morning continue to fluctuate. There was a huge drop in rain totals this morning (especially over NW OH), when compared to yesterday afternoon. Rain totals dipped again this afternoon (compared to this morning) such that rainfall near 0.50" +/- is anticipated. Some lucky locations toward the Lake as well as toward White County could see nearly 1 inch of rain.

LONG TERM
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Rain clears the forecast area by Friday morning, as does the cold front. Expect breezy and cool conditions with some dry time. The caveats are the possibility of lingering showers in the morning over northwest Ohio and the chance for showers off Lake Michigan near sunset.

A notably stout shortwave rushes in Friday night over Lake Michigan bringing a reinforcing shot of cold air. Very steep lapse rates and notable lake-induced CAPE will be present such that rigorous lake enhanced showers are expected Friday night through Saturday. Thunder is certainly possible. Showers will likely spread well inland Saturday thanks to the synoptic lift, perhaps spreading into northwest Ohio. Thanks to this shot of cold air, highs will only be in the 50s on Saturday (coldest high temperature since May). Lake effect rain showers continue into Sunday, though will be widely scattered.

Dry weather resumes Monday afternoon and persists perhaps until late in the week. Temperatures will creep back up toward normal (about 65 in the afternoon) on Tuesday, but may exceed 70 on Wednesday.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 750 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

A broad southwesterly low level jet will continue to transport increased low level moisture northward through daybreak.
Combination of this narrow moisture axis and several small scale waves lifting northeast out of the lower MS Valley will result in increasing potential of rain as we head into the 09Z-12Z timeframe in KSBN vicinity. Some embedded thunder appears to be a possibility at KSBN during the morning hours, with primary low level moisture axis moving very little through midday. Cold frontal boundary should acquire more progression as we head into later Thursday afternoon as primary upper level short wave trough lifts across northern MN/southwest Ontario. This will spread increased rainfall potential into KFWA vicinity for afternoon hours. Cigs will deteriorate from west to east following these forcing mechanisms with best chance of IFR conditions late morning/early afternoon at KSBN. Will keep TS out of KFWA forecast for now, given longer duration of better pooled moisture to the west. However, embedded thunder will be a possibility across NE Indiana on Thursday afternoon.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Northern Indiana, IN,