Monday, October14, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wareham Center, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 6:06PM Monday October 14, 2019 7:18 AM EDT (11:18 UTC) Moonrise 6:52PMMoonset 7:22AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 338 Am Edt Mon Oct 14 2019
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers this morning.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less.
Wed..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain likely in the afternoon.
Wed night..E winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 4 ft. Rain.
Thu..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas around 6 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas around 4 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 338 Am Edt Mon Oct 14 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Weak low pres tracks near cape cod and the islands this afternoon. High pres builds into new eng tonight and Tue from the midwest. A stronger low pres moves ne from the mid atlc region Wed, tracking across the waters Wed night and likely becoming a gale center as it moves to the maritimes Thu. Strong W winds will develop behind the storm Thu into Fri. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wareham Center, MA
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location: 41.73, -70.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 141101
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
701 am edt Mon oct 14 2019

Synopsis
Showers lingering across the CAPE and islands through roughly
noon, otherwise dry, mild and pleasant through Tuesday. Storm
system Wednesday with rain and wind threats. Blustery, cool
Thursday with chance showers. Chilly, breezy conditions Friday.

Frost freeze conditions possible Saturday morning. Warming up
into the weekend, remaining dry. The next chance of wet weather
early to midweek the following week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
7 am update...

busy morning. Showers to the south, fog to the north. Associated
cloud deck making for an interesting temperature gradient. Should
see fog dissipate during the morning hours across the interior
as temperatures warm into the 60s. S-stream convergent energy
associated with the morning shower activity shifting out to sea
as an occluded frontal boundary sweeps through the region later
tonight. What you see is what you get, not expecting showers to
advance much further N but to simply slide E given neighboring
dry air across much of new england.

Would not be surprised if highs topped out in the low 70s for
several locations across S new england away from the S coast
cloudiness and rain.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
High pressure builds into region from plains tonight and becomes
centered S of new england tue. Cross sections show drying through
column and subsidence so expect clear skies tonight and plenty of
sunshine tue.

Gradient weakens enough Tue afternoon to allow for coastal sea
breezes.

Lows tonight fall back into upper 30s and 40s, except near 50 on
immediate coast. Highs Tue reach 50s to lower 60s.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
* highlights...

- storm system Wednesday bringing rain and wind.

- cool, dry, blustery Thursday. Chance showers N w.

- cool with high pressure Friday. Frost freeze Sat morning.

- warm-up, dry weekend.

- potential early to midweek storm the following week.

* overview...

near-seasonable, active weather trend. Renewed NE atlantic cyclone
energy ahead of which mild atlantic air funnels across N europe. A
series of rossby wave breaks across W russia, enough to kick E the
present siberian h5 cyclone energy. Rippling downstream, the pattern
transitioning across the N pacific, a wpo epo teleconnection role
reversal towards positive yielding a mild N pacific jet into the w
conus. Bering straight alaskan h5 low promoting subtle h5 ridging
into the W canadian maritimes, a hudson bay E CONUS trof deepens
through which energy rotates round remnant cyclone energy presently
associated with the n-plains storm system Wednesday. Rossby wave-
train evolution into the latter october with pattern amplification,
a deep W CONUS h5 trof upstream from anomalous E CONUS ridging. A
potential late-october warm-up. Details below.

* details...

around Wednesday...

storm. Continued signals of potent n-stream vortlobe pv-streamer
undergoing a negative-tilt phasing with s-stream remnant eastern n-
pacific presently S of cabo san lucas. Rapid surface cyclogenesis
bombogenesis round SE new england 40n-70w benchmark during energy
transfer through a brief double-barrel low setup. Certainly strong
dynamics and associated lift ascent. Soaking rains. Strong winds.

Another october gale early season nor'easter.

However uncertainty on specifics. Continued run-to-run discrepancies
and model-to-model ensemble member spread. Synoptic wobbles with
individual features more notably the closing mid-upper level low in
respect to anticipated aforementioned cyclogenesis. Further N W over
the interior, the surface low tucks closer to the coast, whereas the
h7-3 low closing over S new england as vortlobe energy bowls through
the mid-level trof yields the surface low closer the 40n-70w bench-
mark. Much different outcomes for our area between the 2 scenarios.

It's going to be several model runs till we can nail down with any
certainty threats and impacts for any one particular area. Potent
nevertheless with 3-4 standard deviation anomaly.

Till then, monitoring several key features. 1.) moderate-heavy rain.

Focus on banding deformation as secondary cyclogenesis emerges at
or near our coastline. Trowaling sub-tropical moisture with dynamic
forcing throughout the column, expecting rain-banding with embedded
thunderstorms (some impressive +60 microbar second omega values per
14.0z gfs). 2.) strong winds. Surface pressure falls 3-4 mb second
with parent pressure fall rise couplet. Isallobaric-gradient driven
wind. At first a conditionally unstable profile and precip-drag that
could bring faster momentum aloft down to the surface preceding the
surface low center. Then a dry slot wraps into the storm. Forecast
model rh cloud fields showing a scorpion tail feature typically
associated with a sting-jet as evaporative cooling proceeds with
isallobarically descending air but looking further downstream (e me
into SE canadian provinces).

Altogether, this storm looks progressive. Not concerned much about
flooding but more about winds and their impact along the shoreline
and across the waters (wind wave). Focus on the Wednesday pm
commute as well. Continued low confidence forecast with preference
to global models. Keep the mention of gales in the hazardous weather
outlook.

Immediately behind the storm, cold air advection, steep lapse rates,
likely blustery right behind associated fronts as temperatures drop
quickly into Thursday.

Thursday...

blustery, cool, showers expected N W of the high terrain, drying and
downsloping into the ct river valley. Typical autumn winter pattern
is back. Chance pops. Clearing out, drying out overnight.

Friday...

crux of cooler air aloft. Will be concerned with frost freeze head-
lines into Saturday morning as winds become light, conditions become
clear. Another breezy day. Winds subsiding along the E SE coast as
high pressure builds from the W overnight. Interior 30s for lows.

Frosty pumpkins.

Saturday onward...

continued signals of a warming trend out ahead of a suggested early
to midweek cyclone. Anomalous h85 temperatures aloft, the potential
for highs into the 70s Sunday through Tuesday so long as SW winds
prevail.

Aviation 12z Monday through Friday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ... High confidence.

12z update...

today...

MVFR-ifr along the s-coast lingering with -shra through roughly
18z. OtherwiseVFR. Light winds becoming SW from W to e, 5-10 kts.

Morning ifr-vlifr fg across lower river valley terminals eroding
with sunrise.

Tonight into Tuesday...

vfr. Light SW winds becoming N NW around 5 to 10 kts. Coastal
sea-breezes possible Tuesday afternoon.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday ... Moderate confidence.

Tuesday night:VFR.

Wednesday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Ra.

Wednesday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Windy
with gusts up to 35 kt. Ra, chance shra.

Thursday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Strong winds
with local gusts up to 40 kt. Chance shra.

Thursday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy
with gusts up to 30 kt.

Friday:VFR. Breezy.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ... High confidence.

Dropped small craft advisories since seas have subsided below 5 ft
per buoy observations.

Weak low pressure tracks up coast today and passes near CAPE islands
early this afternoon before heading farther ne. Light S SE winds
shift to W NW behind low later in day, then give way to near shore
sea breezes Tue afternoon. Seas build slightly to 4 ft on outer se
waters today and tonight, then subside tue.

Showers mainly affect S coastal waters and CAPE cod bay through mid
afternoon.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday ... Moderate confidence.

Tuesday night: winds less than 25 kt.

Wednesday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain.

Wednesday night: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain, chance of rain showers.

Thursday: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
45 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Thursday night: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

Friday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Sipprell jwd
near term... Sipprell jwd
short term... Jwd
long term... Sipprell
aviation... Sipprell jwd
marine... Sipprell jwd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 14 mi93 min Calm 57°F 1016 hPa56°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 14 mi48 min 56°F 61°F1015.9 hPa
44090 22 mi18 min 58°F1 ft
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 24 mi48 min 56°F 61°F1015.9 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 25 mi48 min SE 6 G 8.9 57°F 1015.7 hPa
FRXM3 25 mi54 min 56°F 53°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 28 mi38 min 57°F1 ft
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 29 mi78 min SE 5.1 G 6 57°F 1016.4 hPa (-0.3)
PRUR1 33 mi48 min 58°F 55°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 34 mi48 min SE 5.1 G 6 56°F 61°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 34 mi93 min Calm 55°F 1016 hPa54°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 34 mi48 min Calm G 1.9 56°F 1016.2 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 36 mi48 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 57°F 57°F1015.5 hPa
PVDR1 36 mi48 min Calm G 1.9 55°F 1015.9 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 37 mi48 min ESE 1 G 1.9 54°F 60°F1015.7 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 38 mi54 min SSE 1.9 G 2.9 57°F 61°F1015.7 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 43 mi28 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 57°F 58°F4 ft1015 hPa (+0.0)53°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 45 mi28 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 56°F 4 ft1016.2 hPa (+0.0)53°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 45 mi48 min Calm G 2.9 56°F 59°F1016.5 hPa
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 47 mi54 min 55°F 58°F1014.6 hPa

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA11 mi22 minSSE 610.00 miOvercast55°F55°F100%1015.9 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA12 mi26 minSSE 410.00 miOvercast54°F53°F97%1015.8 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA14 mi25 minN 010.00 miOvercast54°F51°F90%1015.4 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA20 mi26 minN 010.00 miOvercast54°F51°F90%1015.7 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA23 mi25 minE 59.00 miLight Rain56°F55°F97%1015.7 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA23 mi22 minSE 38.00 miLight Rain56°F53°F90%1015.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFMH

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNW4NW4NW5NE4
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E7E4E5E6SE5S6SE3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE3CalmSE3SE6
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N7N6N6N6N5NW5NW5NW5NW5NW5NW5Calm
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Tide / Current Tables for Great Hill, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts
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Great Hill
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:09 AM EDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:57 AM EDT     4.75 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:36 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 06:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:15 PM EDT     4.31 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.30.400.20.71.52.53.54.44.74.33.21.90.70.10.10.41.11.92.93.84.34.13.2

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:17 AM EDT     -4.51 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:25 AM EDT     0.03 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:28 AM EDT     4.26 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:47 AM EDT     -0.20 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:36 PM EDT     -4.48 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:41 PM EDT     0.03 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 06:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:42 PM EDT     4.27 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:03 PM EDT     -0.20 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-3.9-4.5-4.3-3.6-22.33.74.24.23.72.7-1.4-3.5-4.3-4.4-3.8-2.61.73.44.14.33.930.8

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.