Thursday, June4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Wareham Center, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:08AMSunset 8:15PM Thursday June 4, 2020 11:21 PM EDT (03:21 UTC) Moonrise 7:06PMMoonset 4:21AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 1016 Pm Edt Thu Jun 4 2020
Overnight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of. Patchy fog. A slight chance of. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Showers likely. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Areas of fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun and Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon through Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1016 Pm Edt Thu Jun 4 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres will remain anchored well to our southeast through Friday. A cold front will cross the waters sometime late Sat afternoon or Sat evening. High pressure will then build in from the west Sunday into Tuesday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wareham Center, MA
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location: 41.73, -70.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 050224 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1024 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. Summer-like warmth with increasing humidity is expected through Friday, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible. Showers and thunderstorms arrive Saturday afternoon ahead of a cold front. A few of those storms could be locally strong or severe. High pressure builds in from Canada for Sunday afternoon, which will allow for cooler temperatures into Monday. High pressure remains parked over the northeast into mid week, this will return us to a period of dry and seasonably warm temperatures.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/.

1005 PM Update .

* Main concern overnight would be widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms, especially towards the South Coast closer to daybreak *

Forecast remains on track. Did slow down the development of fog along the south coast till after midnight based on latest NT Microphysics satellite imagery. The main concern overnight remains how well can the convection in the Mid Atlantic states hold together into Southern New England. Per SPC mesoanalysis, there looks to be very minimal SBCAPE with an inversion at around 950mb. The column will also take time to saturate from top to bottom for the first part of the night. But towards daybreak, model guidance points to development of a 40 kt jet at 850mb. Together with an increase of MUCAPE to 500 J/kg along the south coast, this could lead to more widespread showers with embedded elevated thunderstorms and localized heavy downpours. It is difficult to pinpoint exactly where the downpours and thunderstorms would develop but greatest chance will likely be towards the South Coast and the Cape and the Islands.

In addition to the scattered thunderstorms, areas of patchy to locally dense fog could develop along the South Coast after midnight.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION .

720pm Update .

Forecast is largely on track. Did speed up the onset of precipitation for this evening as looking at radar upstream shows that the latest CAM guidance is a little too slow. As impressive as the convection in PA looks, it will encounter a hostile environment with minimal instability as it crosses into Southern New England so the convection is expected to weaken considerably. Looking at Bufkit soundings, there is a rather shallow capping inversion between 950 and 975mb overnight with the warm air advection. Mesoscale guidance shows around 200 to 400 J/kg of MUCAPE crossing the region with the overnight shortwave along with wind max of 25 to 30 kt at 925 mb. Mid level lapse rates are also very modest at about 5.5C/km. With the column taking its time to saturate, expect scattered showers with the possibility of a brief downpour with PWATs rising overnight to 1.75 inches. There could also be some elevated thunder. Otherwise, expect a very mild and increasingly muggy night with fog developing along the south coast. The density of the fog will hinge on the extent to which the winds decouple.

420pm .

Tonight .

Dry weather during early this evening with diurnal cumulus diminishing. Models then indicating short wave energy tracking through our region tonight. The airmass becomes more saturated from the top down, with increasing clouds. Looking at 12Z CAMs, ongoing convection upstream of our area would eventually spread into southern New England. There are some differences among the models on timing, placement and intensity of the rainfall, but will probably hold off until after midnight. Looking at model soundings, thinking mainly showers, though a few thunderstorms are possible. With nighttime passage of this convection, the convection should be weakening as it moves into/across our area.

It will be quite mild tonight due to the increasing clouds and increasing surface dewpoints. This should hold overnight low temps in the 60s across most locations. With continued southwest flow, areas of fog should develop along the south coast, Cape and Islands late tonight.

Near Term Rip Current Risk:

Long period southerly swell will result in a moderate to high risk for dangerous rip currents on many ocean exposed beaches for the remainder of today. The high risk for dangerous rip currents will be across the south facing ocean exposed beaches on the south coast and Islands, where we have issued a Rip Current Statement.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Friday .

A warm front lifts north of our area. Surface dewpoints increase a bit further in the 60s, which will make for muggy conditions. Airmass is quite saturated, with precipitable water of 1.5 to 2 inches. Exiting short wave could bring some lingering showers in the morning. Then we may have considerable cloudiness through the day. Model soundings show a tall skinny CAPE profile, with a few hundred J/kg if we stay cloudy, but 1000-1500 J/kg CAPE if the sun breaks out.

We will likely have partly to mostly cloudy skies. While dry weather should dominate, the instability will bring scattered showers and potentially a few thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon/early evening, with the greatest risk across interior southern New England. Weak shortwave energy/jet dynamics and poor mid level lapse rates should limit areal coverage.

Friday Night .

Southern New England remains in the warm sector overnight as a surface trough and mid level shortwave approach from the Great Lakes Region. Model soundings continue to indicate marginal elevated instability (up to a few hundred J/kg CAPE) so scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible, though forcing will lacking. With surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s it will be quite a muggy night, with lows 65 to 70. Areas of fog possible along the south coast, Cape and Islands.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Highlights .

* Sct'd showers/t'storms Saturday afternoon * Dry and seasonably warm early next week

Saturday .

Showers and t'storms are expected heading into Saturday. One of the first curve balls will be how much rain and cloud cover we see from a first batch of morning rain. If we can clear out the clouds and heat up the lower atmosphere we could support a few strong to severe thunderstorms by the mid-afternoon. Model guidance continues to suggest the passage of the cold front between 18z to 00z.

Now . depending on when the front moves across Southern New England it will determine whether or not we see any strong t'storms. The guidance supports a threat for strong thunderstorms because of the dynamic forcing in place from Worcester and Hartford and points east. Across the area described the CAPE values are between 1,000 to 1,500 J/kg. Additional perimeters such as the lift index are between -4 to -6, mid-level lapse rate of 6.0 to 6.5 degrees/km, and 60 to 70 kts of bulk shear. Those ingredients mixed with a well timed cold front could lead to some strong or severe storms.

The primary threats include cloud to ground lightning, gusty wind, small hail, and brief heavy downpours.

Sunday into Monday night .

Clouds linger with a few post frontal showers. Cooler air will be advected south out of Canada. Sunday afternoon highs will struggle to reach the low 70s; with the exception of the Connecticut River Valley. There we could see mid-70s from Springfield to Hartford. Clouds decrease as high pressure sets up shop Sunday night into Monday. Monday afternoon we are back to sunny skies and highs in the middle to upper 70s.

Tuesday into Wednesday .

More of the same thanks to a ridge of high pressure across the northeast. Plenty of dry weather and temperatures seasonably warm with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and overnight lows near 60-degrees.

AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

0215Z Update:

Tonight . High confidence. Mainly VFR, but may see some localized MVFR CIGs/VSBYs develop after midnight along the south coast, Cape, and Islands in stratus and fog. Also, a round of scattered showers and possibly a rumble or two of thunder may impact portions of the region after 04Z. Light SW winds.

Friday . High confidence. Mainly VFR conditions, except potential for a period of MVFR CIGs/VSBYs in low clouds and patchy fog along the south coast, Cape and Islands. Scattered SHRA and isolated TSRA during the afternoon. SW winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots.

Friday night . Moderate confidence. Potential for CIGs/VSBYs to lower to MVFR in stratus and fog, localized IFR possible along south coast, Cape and Islands.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/ .

Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA.

Saturday Night: VFR.

Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Sunday Night through Tuesday: VFR.

MARINE.

1015PM Update .

* Small Craft Advisories continue for the southern waters for 5 ft seas *

Tonight through Friday Night . High confidence. Persistent S-SW winds of 10 to 20 knots through Friday Night. Lingering 3-6 foot seas across our southern waters, where SCAs are in effect. Areas of fog are expected at times across our southern waters, especially during the overnight and early morning hours, when visibility may be reduced to under 1 mile.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/ .

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ235-237.

SYNOPSIS . Gaucher/NMB NEAR TERM . Chai/NMB SHORT TERM . NMB LONG TERM . Gaucher AVIATION . Gaucher/NMB MARINE . Gaucher/NMB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 14 mi97 min SSW 1.9 71°F 1013 hPa68°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 14 mi52 min 63°F 63°F1013.9 hPa
44090 22 mi22 min 58°F1 ft
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 24 mi52 min 71°F 65°F1013.8 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 25 mi52 min SW 9.9 G 13 70°F 1013.4 hPa
FRXM3 25 mi52 min 71°F 62°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 28 mi42 min SSW 7.8 G 12 61°F 61°F1013.1 hPa60°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 29 mi82 min WSW 7 G 8 1014.3 hPa (+1.2)
PRUR1 33 mi52 min 64°F 62°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 34 mi52 min WSW 4.1 G 6 68°F 1013.9 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 34 mi52 min 66°F 63°F1013.2 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 34 mi97 min WSW 5.1 66°F 1013 hPa62°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 36 mi52 min SSW 7 G 8.9 62°F 55°F1013.5 hPa
PVDR1 36 mi52 min SSE 8.9 G 9.9 67°F 1013.2 hPa64°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 37 mi52 min S 8 G 8.9 68°F 62°F1013.1 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 38 mi52 min SW 7 G 7 67°F 61°F1013.6 hPa
CHTM3 40 mi64 min SW 5.1 G 12 64°F 1013.1 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 43 mi32 min S 5.8 G 5.8 62°F 59°F2 ft1010.9 hPa (+1.3)61°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 45 mi52 min SSW 7 G 8.9 61°F 64°F1014.2 hPa
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 45 mi32 min S 14 G 16 60°F 3 ft1012.2 hPa (+0.8)57°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 47 mi58 min 75°F 56°F1010.9 hPa

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA11 mi26 minSW 810.00 miFair66°F60°F83%1013.9 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA12 mi30 minVar 410.00 miFair66°F61°F84%1013.1 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA14 mi29 minSW 610.00 miFair68°F62°F81%1013.2 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA20 mi30 minN 010.00 miFair70°F61°F73%1012.8 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA23 mi29 minSW 58.00 miFair63°F60°F90%1013.8 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA23 mi26 minS 310.00 miFair66°F61°F84%1013.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFMH

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS6S6S4S5S6S6S4SW6SW6SW6SW10SW10
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2 days agoNW6NW6NW6NW5NW5NW5NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmS9S8SW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Great Hill, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts
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Great Hill
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:09 AM EDT     -0.52 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:22 AM EDT     4.54 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:02 PM EDT     -0.56 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:46 PM EDT     5.73 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-0.5-0.30.31.32.63.84.54.43.420.7-0.2-0.6-0.30.41.534.45.55.753.61.9

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:36 AM EDT     0.17 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:43 AM EDT     4.59 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:02 AM EDT     -0.22 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:52 AM EDT     -4.73 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:59 PM EDT     0.03 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:04 PM EDT     4.56 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:05 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:19 PM EDT     -0.15 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-4.7-4-2.62.13.74.54.64.23.30.7-3.3-4.4-4.7-4.3-3.20.33.24.24.64.33.61.9-2.9-4.3

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.