Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Wareham Center, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 4:14PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 8:22 AM EST (13:22 UTC) Moonrise 4:23PMMoonset 6:05AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 716 Am Est Tue Dec 10 2019
.gale warning in effect until 9 am est this morning...
Today..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog. A slight chance of rain this morning, then rain this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog. Snow. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of rain.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain.
Sat..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Am Est Tue Dec 10 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A strong cold approaches from the west later today and crosses the waters this evening. High pres will build into the region from the west later Wed into Thu. The high will move off the coast on Fri as low pres approaches from the southwest Fri night into Sat. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wareham Center, MA
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location: 41.73, -70.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 101211 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 711 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

SYNOPSIS. Unseasonably mild temperatures will continue today. Another round of showers develop late this morning and especially this afternoon. A strong cold front crosses the region this evening, followed by much colder temperatures. Showers will change to a period of accumulating snow later tonight into Wednesday morning, especially south of the Massachusetts Turnpike where a significant impact may occur during the morning commute. Snow will end by Wednesday afternoon. Large high pressure will bring cold and dry conditions Thursday and Friday. Developing low pressure across the southeast U.S. will shift up the coast with the potential for periods of heavy rain late Friday into Saturday, possibly beginning as a period of light snow across interior Massachusetts. Light rain may linger into early Sunday, then drier and cool weather returns late Sunday into Monday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

650 AM Update .

Cloudy skies and mainly dry conditions in place early this morning. Noting a few bands of showers lingering off the S coast, which should pass across Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard through mid to late morning. Another area of light precip across central NY may push across western Mass by mid morning or so as it shifts E-NE, while one more well organized area across central and SW PA is also moving toward the region. This area should reach western MA into N central CT by around midday and will linger into the afternoon as it moves into central and northeastern areas.

The day is starting off quite mild with temperatures in the upper 40s across portions of the CT valley ranging to the mid to upper 50s from near KBVY-KHFD southward to the Cape and islands. With the mainly dry conditions through at least mid morning, temps should rise a bit further before the next area of rain arrives.

Previous Discussion .

Showers will begin to increase in areal coverage again later this morning and early afternoon across portions of western MA/CT as the forcing for ascent increases ahead of an approaching cold front. These showers should arrive in eastern MA/RI by mid to late afternoon. Despite an abundance of clouds today temps are already very mild. Given southwest flow and 850T near +8C expect highs to reach well into the 50s across the interior and lower 60s across much of the coastal plain. It is possible the record high of 64 in Boston could be challenged today. It will remain breezy today, given modest LLJ so expect southwest wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph strongest of which will be across eastern New England.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/.

* Accumulating snow expected late tonight into Wed AM for much of the region, but a sharp cutoff is possible in northern MA

* Significant impact to Wed AM Rush hour possible, especially across parts of northern CT, Rhode Island and Southeast MA

Tonight and Wednesday .

Quite the challenging forecast tonight into Wednesday morning. This revolves around snow amounts and a potentially significant impact to the Wed morning commute. Greatest concern is across parts of CT, RI/SE MA with a possible sharp cutoff in appreciable snow in northern MA.

A cold front will cross the region this evening with temperatures quickly falling through the 40s and then into the 30s. However, an approaching shortwave will keep our region in southwest flow aloft into Wed morning. Very strong jet dynamics are in place as southern New England will be in the right rear quad of a 180 knot jet streak. This leads to a narrow, but very strong area of mid level frontogenesis in the 600 to 700 mb layer. Snowgrowth also looks favorable especially across portions of CT/RI and SE MA, where NAM indicates 20+ units of omega in the snowgrowth region for a short time.

The problem is that the northern extent of the mid level frontogenesis and sufficiently deep moisture remains uncertain. It will also be short-lived and offset by low level drying with WNW winds just off the deck. This is what makes these anafrontal waves so difficult to forecast even inside 12 to 24 hours. There often can be a narrow area of moderate to heavy snow and a sharp cutoff to the north.

Based on model consensus and overall pattern recognition, thinking a general 1 to 4 inches of snow across the region. Greatest risk for the higher amounts will be south of the Pike across portions of CT/RI and SE MA. If the dry air ends up being a little stronger than expected, snow accumulations will be on the order of a coating to 2 inches with little if any accumulations north of the MA Turnpike. On the flip side of the coin, if forcing/deeper moisture ends up a bit further north may see a swath of 4 to 6 inches of snow. After collaboration with surrounding offices, opted to go with a Winter Weather Advisory late tonight into Wed AM for northern CT, RI, as well as south central and southeast MA. The biggest concern is the strong mid level frontogenesis coinciding with the Wed Am rush hour. While amounts may not reach advisory criteria across the entire area, moderate to briefly heavy snow may impact the morning commute and that can often be quite problematic. Therefore, felt the Winter Weather Advisory was warranted. Fortunately, this system is progressive with the snow pretty much over by afternoon. High temperatures will remain in the 30s, which will be a big change after today/s anomalously mild temps.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/.

Highlights .

* Dry conditions and colder than normal temperatures Wednesday night and Thursday

* Temperatures moderate as next weather system brings the potential for heavy rain & localized flooding late Friday into Saturday

* Leftover rain/snow showers linger into early Sunday as a cold front approaches Details .

Wednesday night through Thursday night .

Large 1040 hPa high pressure will shift east across the Ohio valley and across the northeast during this timeframe. Temperatures will run around 10 degrees below normal as H85 temps run from -9C to -15C from S to N into Thursday. Will see dry conditions thanks to the strong subsidence as the high passes.

It will feel even colder on Wed night as W-NW winds at 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 to 30 kt across the higher terrain and along the immediate coast. Wind chill values will range from the single digits to mid teens Wed night, then in the teens to lower 20s during Thursday though the winds will diminish during the afternoon.

The center of the high will allow winds to become light and variable or calm winds by Thu night, though will become light E-SE along the coast as the high shifts E after midnight. Lows will mainly be in the teens, ranging to the 20s along the immediate coast. Clouds will start to increase across the interior after midnight.

Friday through Saturday night .

***Heavy Rain and Flood Potential***

A developing mid level wave across the southern tier states will start to take shape across the SE U.S. Thu/Thu night, will see SE winds beginning to bring low level moisture into the region. Noting H5 long wave trough digging out of the midwest to the SE states, which will set up a strong SW mid level wind flow allowing the deep layer moisture to work into the northeast late Friday through Saturday.

With the cold air in place at the onset of the precip, will start off as light snow across most areas except along the immediate S coast where temps will be around or above freezing. As winds shift to S-SW, the milder air may lift aloft, so could see a thin band of mixed precipitation. However, the colder air will continue to shift SE overnight, so should see any mixed precip change over to snow.

GEFS model ensemble signaling a deep moisture plume working up the eastern seaboard as well. This plume will shift NE across the region late Fri or Fri night, with PWATs up to 2-3 SD above normal (about 1.2 to 1.5 inches). However, the H5 steering pattern, while amplified, remains progressive so should see the precip to shift NE.

The heaviest rain is expected from late Friday night through midday Saturday, with current forecast totals from 1.2 to 1.6 inches regionwide. However, these amounts may change depending upon the timing and track of the area of heavier rain may fall.

These rainfall amounts may combine with any snow to cause clogged catch basins which may result in localized urban and poor drainage flooding. This heavy rain, along with the rainfall from today's event, may cause an increase in river flooding generally during Saturday. Will continue to monitor river levels for any rises.

Expect temps on Saturday to be mild, ranging from 45-50 across the higher terrain to the mid 50s across the coastal plain.

Sunday and Monday .

Low pressure will shift NE into Maine and the Maritimes by Sunday morning, though light rain may linger especially near and N of the Mass Pike. Another cold front may wrap around the departing low late Sunday or Sunday night. May see the rain mix with or change to snow, but looks like the best chance may occur across the E slopes of the Berkshires and possibly the northern Worcester hills during the afternoon before tapering off.

Another cold front will sweep across the region by Monday morning, bringing gusty W-NW winds and colder air across the region. Current forecast suggests highs will run close to seasonal levels.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday/ .

Today . Moderate to high confidence. Mainly MVFR-IFR conditions with some local LIFR mainly across portions of Cape Cod at 12Z. Dry conditions through mid morning, then will see cluster of showers develop late morning through the afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. MVFR conditions will dominate today with IFR-LIFR levels on the Cape/Islands will continue at times. SW wind gusts up to 30-35 knots across far southeast New England will diminish somewhat through 14Z. Otherwise, SW wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots still expected into the afternoon with the strongest of those across eastern New England.

Tonight and Wednesday . Moderate confidence. Winds shift to the NW behind a strong cold front. Lingering showers should change to snow across portions of the interior during the evening and then eastern MA/RI between 05Z and 10Z. Once the showers change to snow, MVFR conditions should lower to IFR levels especially near and south of the MA Turnpike where the highest risk exists for a period of moderate to even briefly heavy snow. This may result in even LIFR conditions for a time. Snowfall amounts look to be on the order of 1 to 4 inches with the higher of those totals most likely south of the MA Turnpike. There also might be a sharp cutoff in appreciable snow across northern MA.

Bulk of the snow should exit the region from NW to SE between 14z and 18z. Dry weather follows with conditions improving to MVFR and then VFR.

KBOS Terminal . Moderate to high confidence in TAF. One to 3 inches of snow likely between 06z and 15z Wed with an impact to the morning push.

KBDL Terminal . Moderate to high confidence in TAF. One to 4 inches of snow likely between 04z and 14z Wed with an impact to the morning push.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/ .

Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Thursday Night: VFR.

Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance RA, slight chance SN.

Friday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. RA.

Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. RA likely.

MARINE.

Short Term /through Wednesday/ .

Today . High confidence. Borderline gale force SW wind gusts continue across most of the waters, but will diminish by around 14Z or so as the core of the LLJ shifts E of the region. Otherwise, still expect SW wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots so will need to replace with SCA headlines shortly. Long southwest fetch will continue to result in 7 to 13 foot seas across the outer waters. Showers become more numerous again late today.

Tonight and Wednesday . High confidence. Winds shift to the NW this evening behind a strong cold front. NW 20 to 25 knot gusts expected into Wed. Showers tonight will change to snow for a time Wed morning before things wind down by mid afternoon. Reduced vsbys expected. SCA headlines will likely be needed for seas and marginal 25 knot wind gusts across the open waters.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/ .

Wednesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Local rough seas.

Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain.

Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Rain likely.

CLIMATE.

Record highs for Today (12/10). Best chance to tie or break record would likely be at Boston.

BOS . 64/1907 PVD . 67/1946 BDL . 67/1946 ORH . 63/1946

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon EST Wednesday for CTZ002>004. MA . Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon EST Wednesday for MAZ012-013-015>022. RI . Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon EST Wednesday for RIZ001>007. MARINE . Gale Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for ANZ231>235-237- 250-251-254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ230- 236.

SYNOPSIS . Frank/EVT NEAR TERM . Frank/EVT SHORT TERM . Frank LONG TERM . EVT AVIATION . Frank/EVT MARINE . Frank/EVT CLIMATE . Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 14 mi98 min S 4.1 55°F 1009 hPa54°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 14 mi59 min 51°F 43°F1009.6 hPa
44090 22 mi23 min 46°F3 ft
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 24 mi59 min 56°F 43°F1008.9 hPa
FRXM3 25 mi59 min 56°F 53°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 25 mi53 min SSW 13 G 17 55°F 1008.3 hPa
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 28 mi33 min 14 G 16 47°F 44°F2 ft47°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 29 mi83 min SW 18 G 19 53°F 1008.9 hPa (+0.9)
PRUR1 33 mi53 min 52°F 51°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 34 mi98 min SW 6 53°F 1008 hPa51°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 34 mi53 min SW 5.1 G 8.9 54°F 1009.1 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 36 mi59 min SSW 8 G 11 51°F 42°F1008.8 hPa
PVDR1 36 mi53 min SSW 7 G 14 56°F 1008.3 hPa53°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 37 mi59 min SW 5.1 G 9.9 57°F 42°F1008.1 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 38 mi59 min SW 8 G 11 52°F 44°F1008.5 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 43 mi33 min SSW 9.7 G 9.7 52°F 48°F3 ft1005.9 hPa (+1.2)52°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 45 mi33 min SSW 19 G 23 50°F 4 ft1007 hPa (+1.0)49°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 45 mi53 min SW 9.9 G 17 54°F 43°F1010.3 hPa
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 47 mi53 min 57°F 41°F1005.5 hPa

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA11 mi38 minWSW 19 G 303.00 miFog/Mist and Breezy55°F55°F100%1009.1 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA12 mi31 minSSW 10 G 2010.00 miOvercast56°F53°F90%1007.9 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA14 mi30 minSW 14 G 179.00 miOvercast56°F53°F90%1008.3 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA20 mi31 minSSW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy56°F52°F87%1008.1 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA23 mi30 minSW 91.50 miFog/Mist55°F53°F93%1009.8 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA23 mi27 minSSW 126.00 miFog/Mist55°F52°F90%1008.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFMH

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmW4SW5SW8SW7S11SW13
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SW10S8S8S9SW10SW11S15SW12S13--SW7SW9SW9S5S7S6S9
2 days agoN6
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NW8N4NW9N5NW6NW5NW3NW6N6--NW8----NW6NW6--NW5NW5CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Great Hill, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts
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Great Hill
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:05 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:19 AM EST     4.59 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:09 PM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:23 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:12 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:40 PM EST     3.90 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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00.41.12344.64.43.62.31.10.3-00.10.61.22.13.13.73.93.32.10.90.1

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:41 AM EST     0.02 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:45 AM EST     4.01 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:05 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:03 AM EST     -0.03 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:56 AM EST     -4.39 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:06 PM EST     0.19 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:22 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:11 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:10 PM EST     4.15 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 08:33 PM EST     -0.20 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:19 PM EST     -4.29 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-3.6-2.41.63.23.943.72.90.8-3-4.1-4.4-4-3.1-12.83.84.143.52.2-2.1-3.6-4.3

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.