Sunday, December8, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Weweantic, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 4:14PM Sunday December 8, 2019 12:53 PM EST (17:53 UTC) Moonrise 3:23PMMoonset 4:00AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 1041 Am Est Sun Dec 8 2019
.gale warning in effect from Monday afternoon through late Monday night...
This afternoon..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Areas of fog. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..S winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Areas of fog. Showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night through Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1041 Am Est Sun Dec 8 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pressure will move off the coast this afternoon. A slow moving cold front approaches from the west Mon into Tue. Gale force S to sw winds are expected late Mon afternoon into early Tue. The cold front sweeps across the waters Tue night with a secondary cold front moving through Wed afternoon. Strong high pres moves into the region Thu and Fri. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Weweantic, MA
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location: 41.73, -70.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 081513 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1013 AM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

SYNOPSIS. Strong high pressure over southern New England this morning will shift off the coast during the afternoon, which will start a return flow of increasingly milder and more moist air. Scattered showers late tonight will turn into a soaking rain Monday into Tuesday. Strong southwest winds are expected in southeastern New England and all coastal waters late Monday afternoon and Monday night. A cold front moves through Tuesday night, and there might be some snow Tuesday night into Wednesday although confidence is very low at this point. Dry weather returns late Wednesday with colder temperatures for Thursday. Another coastal weather system may bring a mix of precipitation Friday or Saturday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON/.

1010 AM update .

Full sunshine (thru high thin cirrus clouds this afternoon) and light winds helping to take the edge off the cold temperatures this morning. Previous forecast on track with current conditions so no major changes with this update. Earlier discussion below.

=================================================================

IR satellite shows some thin cirrus overhead, but generally clear skies. Thicker mid and upper clouds are found over far Western NY moving east. If these clouds hold together they may reach Western MA/CT around 2 PM, BOS-PVD 4-5 PM. Light winds become southerly this afternoon as the high pressure moves offshore. Overall a fair weather day. And although we have started rather chilly in some areas . subzero in parts of Western and Central MA . the sun and developing south wind will help temps recover into the 30s. Have adjusted hourly temps and dew points, but no significant changes to the forecast.

SHORT TERM /5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/.

340 AM update .

Tonight . There is increasing southwestly flow aloft, with a 925 mb low level jet max of 50 knots noted from southeast NH to eastern ME late. Low level warm advection pattern will cause temperatures to slowly rise overnight. Low levels saturate toward daybreak Monday. Low cloudiness develops in CT and spreads northeastward overnight. SREF shows high probabilities of ceilings lower than 1000 ft. With increasing moisture in the low levels but still relatively dry air aloft most of the night, this spells more of a chance of some drizzle. Actual showers may develop by 3 or 4 AM. Temperatures in northwest MA could still be only in the mid 30s, so cannot rule out a few flakes of snow mixed in with any rain showers there, but it would be very short-lived. Temperatures should be in the 40s across RI and southeast MA by daybreak Monday.

Monday .

** Rain and Wind **

Warm advection on strong south to southwest winds will lead to a rain, with embbeded heavier showers, across the entire region on Monday. Expecting 1 to 1.75 inches of rain before Monday night, when additional rain will occur (see below). A very strong low level jet will be working its way from the NJ coast to Long Island during the morning, reaching southern RI and the southeast MA coast very late in the afternoon. The NAM has been the strongest, with 80-90 kt at 2000 ft whereas other models are more like 60-70 kt. The big question is how much will mix down to the surface. This is tough because temperatures will soar to the mid and upper 50s in southeast MA and southern RI. That, combined with forecast lapse rates of 6C/km in the 925-700 mb layer, would make it likely that at least half would reach the surface. That would translate to wind gusts of 40-50 mph by 4 or 5 PM on Cape Cod and the Islands. Since the bulk of the winds would be Monday night, have held off on a Wind Advisory at this point, but either a Wind Advisory or High Wind Watches or Warnings may be issued later today. We have already issued Gale Warnings for all coastal waters . mariners take note.

Coincident with the arrival of the aforementioned low level jet, an isolated rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out along the south coast toward evening. Even in northwest MA, temperatures will rise into the lower 50s, which will melt much of the remaining snow. Per discussions yesterday, there is 1 to 2 inches of water equivalent in the snowpack, which, when added to the falling rain, could lead to rises in river levels, but we are not expecting river flooding at this time. There will, however, likely be some urban and poor drainage flooding.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/.

Big Picture .

Broad upper trough digs over the Plains and Great Lakes Monday night and Tuesday while an upper ridge sits over the Western Atlantic. This creates a southwest flow aloft across the Eastern USA and brings milder air into Southern New England. The upper trough moves east midweek, crossing New England Thursday. Less agreement on the pattern for Friday-Saturday, but possibly a trough digs over the Plains, then sweeps east to New England over next weekend.

Above normal 500-mb heights Tuesday fall below normal Thursday- Friday before increasing again on Saturday. So the deep layer is expected to be mild Tuesday, then falling below normal late week with signs of a recovery by Saturday.

Mass fields and thermal fields in the models are similar through midweek but then show some model-to-model differences late in the week. This means moderate confidence through Tuesday, then diminishing to low confidence by Friday and Saturday.

Daily Concerns .

Monday night-Tuesday .

Two features of note Monday night. One is a strong southerly low- level jet moving up the coast over Southern New England. This provides an inflow of moisture with PW values between 1 and 1.25 inches as well as low level forcing and lift. The second is a strong 150-kt upper jet moving east from the Plains and eventually curving up over Southern New England. The left exit region of this jet moves over us Monday evening and night, also generating lift. Temperatures will be above freezing through the lowest 10 thousand feet, so high confidence the precip type will be rain/showers.

Low level south to southwest winds reach 60 kt within a couple of thousand feet of the surface, with highest values just offshore. Lapse rates will be near moist adiabatic in a shower-filled warm sector. Expect strong wind gusts to be brought to the surface, with gusts of 35 to 45 kt. Values similar to this are forecast at 1000 mb. Thus expect strong gusty winds Monday night and Tuesday.

Guidance also suggests the precipitation comes in two segments: one Monday night followed by a break Tuesday morning and then a second segment of rain/showers late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Total rainfall during this time will be roughly 1 to 2 inches.

Temperatures in the warm sector are indicated by 12C temps at 950 mb. If we have a lapse rate close to isothermal at night, expect nightime min temps in the lows to mid 50s. A similar temperature aloft with a dry adiabatic lapse to the surface would suggest max temps around 60 during the day Tuesday. Will show upper 50s and around 60 in the coastal plain, and mid 50s in Western/Central MA

Tuesday night .

Cold front sweeps through Southern New England Tuesday evening and early night. After it moves through, indications are that it turns parallel to the upper flow just as we move under the right entrance region of the upper jet. This should keep the front nearby overnight and maintain support for precipitation much of the night. With colder air moving in aloft, this may mean a changeover to snow with potential of a couple of inches. Cross sections show the deep column of moisture dries out by 12Z Wednesday, suggesting a diminishing chance of snow by sunrise.

Wednesday-Thursday .

Upper trough and associated cold pool move across New England on Wednesday. This should push any lingering precipitation offshore. Cold pool instability may generate some clouds and scattered rain/snow showers during Wednesday, with best potential in Western and Central MA and areas north of the MA border.

High pressure then builds in with cold and dry weather Thursday.

Friday-Saturday .

GFS shows another coastal system moving up from the south Friday, spreading precipitation into Southern New England with continues into Saturday. The ECMWF is slower with the coastal system, moving precipitation ashore on Saturday. GFS temperatures are borderline, with potential for both rain and snow. The ECMWF temperature show predominently rain. Expect a mix of precipitation on one or both of the days, but with low confidence.

AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday/ . High confidence.

1515z .

No major changes from previous TAFs, dry runways, VFR and light SSW winds developing this afternoon. Earlier discussion below.

===================================================================

Today . VFR. Light winds becoming S-SW and slowly increasing to 10-15 kt with a few gusts to 20 kt this afternoon.

Tonight . VFR to start, then clouds lowering to MVFR across the region. Areas of IFR after midnight, with fog and drizzle developing in CT and western/central MA. Scattered rain showers after midnight. LLWS possible late, especially in northern and western MA.

Monday . Widespread IFR with areas of MVFR. Rain showers, heavy at times. Isolated thunder possible south coast late in the afternoon. Low Level Wind Shear due to strong southerly flow at 2000 ft. SW wind increasing to 25-35 kt in the afternoon, highest in RI and southeast MA.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/ .

Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. SHRA likely.

Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. SHRA likely.

Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. SHRA likely, chance SHSN.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHSN.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

MARINE. Short Term /through Monday/ . High confidence.

340 AM update:

** Gale Warnings now in effect for all coastal waters **

Today . Strong high pressure over southern New England moves offshore this afternoon. This shifts winds to a SSW direction. Dry weather and good vsby continue.

Tonight . A low level jet over mainly northern New England will cause increasing wind gusts over the outer waters off Cape Ann and over Massachusetts Bay tonight. Winds there could gust over 30 kt. Seas will build to around 6 ft in those waters. Scattered showers developing late, mainly in the southern waters.

Monday . Rough conditions. SW gales expected, with gusts of 35-45 kt all waters . but highest over the southeastern outer waters by late in the afternoon. Will need to watch for potential upgrades to Storm conditions. Widespread rain showers and the potential for an isolated thunderstorm toward evening over the southern coastal waters. Areas of fog. Visibilities reduced to 1 to 3 nm.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/ .

Monday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with areas of gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 15 ft. Rain showers likely. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Tuesday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Rain showers likely.

Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain showers likely.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Gale Warning from 1 PM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256. Gale Warning from 4 PM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ230- 236.

SYNOPSIS . WTB/GAF NEAR TERM . WTB/Nocera/GAF SHORT TERM . GAF LONG TERM . WTB AVIATION . WTB/Nocera/GAF MARINE . WTB/GAF


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 15 mi69 min ESE 2.9 35°F 1033 hPa20°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 15 mi54 min 33°F 41°F1033.2 hPa (-1.9)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 23 mi54 min 33°F 42°F1033.4 hPa (-1.8)
44090 23 mi54 min 46°F1 ft
FRXM3 24 mi60 min 34°F 22°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 24 mi54 min SW 11 G 13 33°F 1033.2 hPa (-1.9)
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 28 mi54 min SSW 9.9 G 12 34°F 1033.5 hPa (-2.1)
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 29 mi34 min 5.8 G 9.7 42°F1033.5 hPa
PRUR1 32 mi54 min 34°F 24°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 33 mi54 min S 8.9 G 9.9 31°F 41°F1033.1 hPa (-1.8)
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 33 mi69 min WSW 5.1 34°F 1034 hPa22°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 33 mi54 min WSW 2.9 G 5.1 34°F 1033.8 hPa (-1.8)
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 35 mi54 min SW 8 G 9.9 34°F 39°F1033.1 hPa (-1.8)
PVDR1 35 mi54 min S 8.9 G 12 33°F 1033.3 hPa (-1.9)21°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 36 mi54 min SSW 5.1 G 7 33°F 40°F1033.1 hPa (-1.9)
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 37 mi54 min S 7 G 11
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 43 mi64 min S 9.7 G 12 32°F 47°F1 ft1032.1 hPa (-1.6)15°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 45 mi64 min SSW 9.7 G 14 32°F 1 ft1033.1 hPa (-1.1)15°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 46 mi54 min 33°F 41°F1031.3 hPa (-2.1)
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 46 mi54 min S 5.1 G 8 34°F 39°F1033.5 hPa (-1.6)

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA12 mi58 minSW 810.00 miFair34°F14°F44%1032.8 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA12 mi62 minSW 710.00 miFair33°F15°F48%1032.9 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA13 mi61 minSSW 910.00 miFair34°F19°F56%1033.1 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA19 mi62 minno data10.00 miFair34°F14°F44%1032.9 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA23 mi61 minS 810.00 miFair36°F21°F55%1033.3 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA24 mi58 minS 610.00 miFair33°F17°F52%1033 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFMH

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4NW9N5NW6NW5NW3NW6N6--NW8----NW6NW6--NW5NW5CalmCalmCalmW4SW5SW8SW7
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Tide / Current Tables for Great Hill, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts
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Great Hill
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:59 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:54 AM EST     4.06 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:57 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:48 AM EST     0.53 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:22 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:12 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:12 PM EST     3.65 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:41 PM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.42.23.13.84.13.72.81.810.60.50.711.72.53.23.63.42.71.70.80.30.2

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:09 AM EST     0.02 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:59 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:21 AM EST     3.80 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:41 AM EST     -0.19 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:27 AM EST     -4.06 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 12:40 PM EST     0.02 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:22 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:47 PM EST     3.77 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:11 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:03 PM EST     -0.19 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:48 PM EST     -4.07 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.12.53.43.83.73.32.3-1.7-3.3-4-4-3.4-2.31.633.63.83.52.80.7-2.9-3.8-4.1-3.7

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.