Sunrise 5:47 AM   Sunset 7:35 PM Moonrise 8:38 PM   Moonset 5:54 AM

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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 403 Pm Edt Wed Apr 24 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 pm edt this evening through Thursday morning - .
Tonight - NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: W 2 ft at 5 seconds and se 2 ft at 10 seconds. A slight chance of showers this evening. Thu - N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: ne 2 ft at 3 seconds and sw 1 ft at 6 seconds. Thu night - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 4 seconds and E 1 ft at 7 seconds, becoming sw 1 ft at 3 seconds and E 1 ft at 8 seconds. Fri - N winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: sw 1 ft at 3 seconds and E 1 ft at 8 seconds. Fri night through Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 3 seconds and se 1 ft at 8 seconds. Sun through Mon night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 1 ft at 9 seconds.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 403 Pm Edt Wed Apr 24 2024
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - Cold front sweeps across the waters this evening, bringing scattered showers and perhaps a Thunderstorm or two. Winds will shift from the sw to the w, and eventually turning n. N-nw winds will gust up to 30 kt into Thursday morning. High pres again builds over the waters into this weekend with relatively light winds. Low pres brings rain chances and breezy winds by Tue.

FXUS61 KBOX 241927 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 327 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front moves off the coast by this evening followed by unseasonably cold conditions tonight. High pressure dominates Thursday through Saturday with dry weather and gradually moderating temperatures. Unsettled pattern sets up for Sunday into early next week with shower chances at times but turning milder.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Scattered convective showers along the cold front moving across SNE this afternoon. The cold front has pushed east of the CT valley and will move across the region this afternoon and off the coast by early evening. Sunshine and surface heating below steep mid level lapse rates contributing to SBCAPES 200-500, and low level lapse rates are impressive as well at 8-9 C/km.
Scattered convective showers will move across the region through the afternoon, and an isolated t-storm or 2 is possible given marginal instability and steep lapse rates. Shower activity will be brief, not lasting much more than an hour in any location, but a brief downpour and small hail is possible.

Rapid clearing develops this evening behind the front as PWATs crash. Cold advection maximizes this evening with NW gusts to 20-25 mph, and up to 30 mph along the coast, then diminishing overnight.
Low temps forecast tricky as cooling will be from advection this evening, then radiational cooling late tonight as winds diminish.
Still expecting lows mid/upper 20s interior, coldest NW MA, with lower 30s near the coast, but mid 30s Cape/Islands where winds will stay up through the night. Freeze watch was converted to Freeze warning and expanded along the entire coast.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Thursday and Thursday night...

High pressure will be in control with very dry airmass in place.
Expect full sunshine Thu and clear skies Thu night. Winds will be light which will promote developing sea breezes by afternoon along the coast. Cooler airmass Thu as 850 mb temps bottom out at -2 to -4C. Highs will be in the mid-upper 50s but upper 40s along the immediate E MA coast where onshore winds develop. Very dry airmass with dewpoints well down into the teens Thu will result in RH values dropping to 15-25 percent, but winds will be light.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Key Points...

* Warming trend through the middle of next week.

* remaining dry Friday and Saturday.

* Low chance for showers Saturday then again Tuesday and Wednesday.

Friday and Saturday...

Upper level ridge and surface high pressure remains centered over the region through Saturday. With subsidence aloft and very dry mid level air, skies look to remain clear with very little clouds until late Saturday afternoon when high clouds ahead of a short wave move in. This will help moderate day time temperatures into low to mid 60s Friday and mid to upper 60s Saturday. With a weak pressure gradient, local sea breezes will occur Friday and possibly again Saturday. However, winds begin to increase out of the south Saturday afternoon, which could keep a true sea breeze from forming along the east coasts.

With the clear skies and weak winds Friday night, there will be very efficient radiational cooling setting up. low temps should drop near freezing in the typical cold spots of NW MA, and some low lying spots in SE MA. Otherwise lows drop into the mid to upper 30s across the rest of SNE. Upper level ridge axis passes to the east by Saturday night with some warm air advection ahead of the next shortwave trough. This will lead to increased cloud cover and and isolated to scattered showers. Lows stay warmer Saturday night in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Sunday and Monday

The center of the high pressure drops south to the Carolinas, but the upper level ridge axis continues to stretch north in SNE. Being at the top of the ridge axis, weak vort impulses, along with warm air advection aloft bring high clouds and low chances for isolated showers both Sunday and Monday. High temperatures Sunday and Monday will be very dependent on the possibility of a back door cold front working in. Latest GFS and EURO is bringing that back door cold front through Sunday keeping temperatures in the low 60s. However, if that cold front stays offshore Sunday, temperatures could easily top the low to mid 70s. Given the uncertainty and run to run inconsistency, blended warmer NBM guidance with cooler CONSALL guidance. High temps will be warmer Monday regardless, but latest guidance has also trended temperatures back from the upper 70s to low 80s, down to the low to mid 70s due to the back door cold front.
Again used a blend of the NBM and CONSALL guidance for Monday afternoon.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Upper level ridge axis again moves offshore to the east, but this time, a weakening shortwave trough moves through the region. Given this is a week out, stuck with NBM for precip chances, which shows 30-40% chance for showers. This seems reasonable given the weak forcing from the weakening trough. A cold front looks to move through behind the trough which could bring an isolated thunderstorms with it. Stuck with the NBM for high temperatures on Tuesday as southerly flow should kick out the back door cold front from Sunday and Monday. Highs should reach the mid to upper 70s, with a 30-40% chance at 80F in the CT river valley. Highs begin to trend cooler wednesday and beyond in the mid 60s to low 70s.

AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 00z...

VFR, but a brief shower or isolated t-storm possible with brief lower conditions as area of scattered showers move across SNE through 22z. SW winds shifting to NW 18-22z from W to E. Gusts to 25 kt.

Tonight...High confidence.

VFR with rapid clearing. NW gusts to 25 kt along the coast, diminishing after 06z.

Thursday and Thursday night...High confidence.

VFR. Light winds, with local sea breezes developing by afternoon.

KBOS TAF...High confidence.

Brief convective showers possible 20-22z as the cold front moves through, but VFR persists. Low risk for thunder but not enough confidence to include in TAF. Wind shift to NW after FROPA with gusts to 25 kt, diminishing after 06z. Sea breeze develops 15-17z Thu.

KBDL TAF...High confidence.

Brief convective showers possible through 20z as the cold front moves through, but VFR persists. Low risk for thunder but not enough confidence to include in TAF. Wind shift to NW after FROPA with gusts to 20 kt, diminishing after 00z.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday through Friday Night: VFR.

Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight through Thursday night...High Confidence.

A period of NW wind gusts to 25-30 kt developing this evening behind the cold front, but diminishing overnight. SCA for all waters.
Northerly winds 10-15 kt Thu morning becoming light Thu afternoon/night. Onshore winds develop near the coast Thu afternoon as sea breezes develop.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Saturday Night through Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Slight chance of rain showers.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Thursday for CTZ002>004.
MA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Thursday for MAZ007- 014>021.
RI...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Thursday for RIZ001>007.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ231-251.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ232>235-237.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ250- 254>256.

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Great Hill
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Wed -- 02:31 AM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 05:54 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:04 AM EDT     3.88 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:23 PM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:19 PM EDT     4.63 feet High Tide
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Great Hill, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts, Tide feet

Cape Cod Canal
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Wed -- 01:23 AM EDT     -4.39 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:29 AM EDT     0.20 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 05:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:32 AM EDT     4.20 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:54 AM EDT     -0.20 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:44 PM EDT     -4.35 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:48 PM EDT     0.19 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:46 PM EDT     4.10 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:04 PM EDT     -0.16 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current, knots

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