Sunday, February23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fall River, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 5:28PM Sunday February 23, 2020 10:14 AM EST (15:14 UTC) Moonrise 7:52AMMoonset 6:29PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 716 Am Est Sun Feb 23 2020
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming E around 5 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of light rain.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of rain.
Wed..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. Rain likely.
Wed night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
Thu..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Am Est Sun Feb 23 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Large high pres south of our waters will slide east and further away from the region through Mon. A weak cold front crosses the water Tue as wave of low pres passes south of the waters. A stronger low pres system approaches from the southwest Wed and lifts north of the waters by Thu. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fall River, MA
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location: 41.73, -71.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 231130 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 630 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will continue to bring dry weather with unseasonably mild afternoons through Monday. A weak cold front moves through Monday night, then stalls south of New England. Our weather pattern turns more active Tuesday into Thursday. A warm front spreads a light wintry mix to rain Tuesday night into early Wednesday, with lots of clouds and cooler temperatures. Strong frontal system then produces a period of steady rains Wednesday night into early Thursday. Pattern change toward below-normal temperatures for Thursday night into the weekend, with the coldest air settling in over the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. 630 AM Update:

* Mostly sunny and unseasonably mild this afternoon

No significant changes needed to the going forecast which remains in good shape. Full sun still anticipated today and most areas should reach the 50s, though a bit cooler near the coastlines and in the higher elevations of the Berkshires. WSW breezes today with gusts up to 20 mph.

Prior discussion from 3 AM follows:

A ridge of high pressure centered to our south will result in a mostly sunny and unseasonably mild afternoon. After a chilly start in some of the typical outlying locations, plenty of sunshine and mild 850T near 0C will combined with a dry atmosphere/westerly flow to allow good mixing. This will allow afternoon high temperatures to reach the middle 50s in many locations. It will be a bit cooler along the south coast with the marine influence as well as the higher terrain, but still expect highs to reach the upper 40s to the lower 50s in those locations too.

Southwest winds may gust to around 20 mph this afternoon, but the increasing late February sun angle and mild temperatures will make it feel quite comfortable outdoors.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/. * Mostly sunny and even milder Mon afternoon with highs near 60

Tonight .

The ridge of high pressure to our south will remain in control of our weather. Mainly clear skies coupled with a dry airmass/light winds will allow temperatures to drop relatively quickly this evening. Overnight lows should still be above normal, but they should fall back into the middle 20s to the lower 30s in most locations and a few degrees milder along portions of the coast.

Monday .

High pressure located to our south will move east and further away from the region. This will allow 925T to modify to around +5C to +6C by afternoon. Plenty of sunshine and good mixing on SW flow should allow afternoon high temperatures to reach near 60 in many locales. These temperatures are around 20 degrees above normal for late February. It will be cooler along the south coast with the marine influence as well as the high terrain, but high temperatures will still reach the lower to middle 50s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. Highlights .

* Cloudy with very light rain or drizzle Mon night into Tues.

* Challenging temperature forecast Tues into Wed with bust potential given in-situ cold air damming profile spreading SW into N MA. * Warm front Tues nite - Wed spreads mainly light rain (light wintry mix with minor travel impact psbl early Wed AM NW/N MA).

* Strong frontal system Wed nite - early Thu with wetting rainfall likely, along with increasing E/SE winds at or above gale force on the eastern waters.

* Pattern change toward below-avg temps and blustery NW winds Thurs nite into the weekend. Well below-avg temps by the weekend.

Details .

Monday Night into Tuesday:

Really not much has changed on the forecast thinking for Monday night into Tuesday. In the wake of a cold frontal passage during the day on Monday in northern New England, weak surface ridge/cold-air damming wedge profile in the sea-level pressure field looks to set up across NH/ME into Southern New England. Light northerly winds should be prevalent on Monday night as we await the onset of light showers from a weakening mid-level disturbance and surface warm front progressing from the northern mid-Atlantic region.

Recent NWP guidance has trended lighter and spotty with any shower coverage Mon night. Guidance also is indicating less QPF even into Tues now as well. Seems as though models keep deeper moisture and higher QPF on a baroclinic zone offshore the mid-Atlantic region, robbing much moisture return further north. I still do think Tues offers the best chance for rains as opposed to Monday night, but in both forecast period any precip will be real light in intensity.

The temperature forecast for Tues looks challenging, especially for northern MA. The background pattern is one of modest warm advection with 925/850 mb temps slowly warming. However abundant cloud cover and light stratiform rains falling into this in-situ cold-air damming pattern should help reinforce its position and likely will make temperatures very slow to rise (if at all) across northern into north-central MA. These rises may ultimately be slower than what most available models are otherwise indicating. This effect can be seen when looking at model soundings at sites like Manchester NH with greater warming aloft but little if any temperature rise in the lowest near-surface portion of the sounding. Slower diurnal warming trend to temps south of the Mass Pike. Will show highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s Tues, with mid-upper 40s Hartford-Providence corridor into SE MA.

Tuesday Night into Wednesday:

Warm front makes greater northward inroads into Southern New England Tues night into early part of Wed. Most areas should be mainly a chilly plain rain. With the cold air damming, NE flow and shallow colder air into the Route 2 corridor in northern MA, will need to watch for a potential wintry mix for these locations. May cause some minor travel impact into the Wed AM commute. Lows around 30-32 NW MA, to the mid-upper 30s elsewhere.

While the warm front trudges slowly northward into Wed, most models show reinforcing cooler NE flow advancing even further S/SW, as surface sea-level pressure field builds ridge/cold-air damming wedge potentially as far south as SW CT. Temps will again prove challenging into Wed but have again sided closer to the colder end of guidance. While still above-normal, shown highs only in the mid- upper 30s to mid 40s with a considerable amount of clouds and mist/fog around.

Wednesday Night into Thursday:

Amplified 500 mb trough over the Ohio Valley translates eastward and becomes negatively tilted. While primary cyclone from the Ohio Valley occludes/fills near the eastern Great Lakes, strong diffluence aloft and sharp 500 mb height falls should contribute to induce a secondary cyclone forming over northern VA Wed nite. Southerly flow near and east of the secondary low development will draw deep moisture northward (PWATs nearing 1" per the 00z ECMWF, corresponding to a +2 to +3 sigma standardized PWAT anomaly). Prevailing NE flow will also come around to SE and S as the surface cyclone traverses our area late Wed nite into early Thurs.

Given strong QG forcing interacting with this degree of moisture, Categorical PoPs are maintained for steady light/moderate-intensity rains Wed nite-early Thurs. Looks to be a decent rainmaker, and followed WPC's QPF fairly heavily which brings rain amounts from a half-inch to near an inch. E/SE winds also to increase to near gale force Wed nite-early Thurs on the eastern outer waters with fairly strong p-gradient shown and SE low-level jet around 50-55 kt.

By around midday Thurs, expect a rapid decrease in PoP from SW to NE as cold front clears our area. Cold advection then commences, which causes falling afternoon temps and increasingly blustery WNW winds. Will show highs Thurs in the upper 30s to upper 40s with temperatures falling into the afternoon.

Thursday Night into the Weekend:

As February comes to a close, significant pattern change toward below to well-below normal temperatures is still advertised by most models and ensembles. Large upper low over the St. Lawrence Valley in Ontario will move little through the weekend, allowing for a plunge of colder air to infiltrate into much of New England.

Chilly, blustery conditions look likely for Thurs night into Fri with lows Thurs nite in the 20s (single-digit wind chills by daybreak northern Worcester Hills into the Berks). Highs Fri mid 20s to the mid-upper 30s, mildest into eastern MA and the urban corridor and coldest in the interior. At this time, it looks as though the core of the coldest air becomes centered around the weekend (Feb 29th - Mar 1st), though the degree of the cold is still unclear. GFS is the coldest (925 mb temps -15 to -18C), while the ECMWF is less so (925 mb temps -12 to -15C). A conservative ECMWF approach would produce lower 20s-near freezing highs for the weekend, with lows single digits above to the teens. These are about 10 degrees colder than typical late-Feb/early March climatology. While winds should become less blustery by the weekend, may have a few sub-OF wind chills in the Berkshires/northern Worcester Hills early Sat AM.

On precipitation chances, other than periodic streamers of lake- effect SHSN into the CT Valley and potential ocean effect SHSN, the period projects as an overall dry pattern. That said, will need to watch for any shortwaves/vort energy rotating around the progged east CONUS longwave trough that could be a source of coastal cyclogenesis toward the weekend. As of the 00z NWP suite, the ECMWF and to a lesser extent the GEM indicates this potential, with a mid- level shortwave/vort inducing coastal cyclogenesis south of the benchmark around next Sunday. It's really a remote possibility at this point as the mean longwave trough axis is too far east to really pose a threat. If that longwave trough axis were to shift further W the threat would be raised. Will maintain a dry forecast for now, but something to watch into the first couple days in March.

AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update:

Today through Monday . High confidence. VFR with mainly SKC today. Generally SKC conditions on Monday as well but higher cloudiness arrives later in the day. Light SW winds during the overnight/early morning hours with some SW 15 to 20 knot gusts at times during the late morning/afternoon hours.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/ .

Monday Night: VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance RA.

Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance RA, patchy BR, chance FZRA.

Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance RA, patchy BR, chance FZRA.

Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. RA, patchy BR.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Chance RA, slight chance SHRA.

MARINE. Today through Monday . High confidence. High pressure south of the waters will result in SW winds of 10 to 15 knots through Monday. Winds may gust into the lower 20 knots this afternoon and again Monday afternoon. This may allow for seas to get a bit choppy during the afternoons, but expect conditions to generally remain below small craft advisory thresholds through Monday.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/ .

Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain, patchy fog.

Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain, patchy fog.

Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Rain likely, patchy fog.

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Chance of rain, slight chance of rain showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Frank/Loconto NEAR TERM . Frank/Loconto SHORT TERM . Frank LONG TERM . Loconto AVIATION . Frank/Loconto MARINE . Frank/Loconto


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 3 mi62 min 41°F 38°F1022.6 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 3 mi56 min SW 8 G 8.9 40°F 1022.4 hPa
FRXM3 4 mi62 min 41°F 21°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 11 mi56 min S 4.1 G 5.1 38°F 38°F1022.3 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 13 mi56 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1 42°F 1022.9 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 13 mi89 min WSW 5.1 40°F 1023 hPa22°F
PRUR1 13 mi56 min 46°F 20°F
PVDR1 14 mi56 min SSW 6 G 7 42°F 1022.4 hPa19°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 15 mi56 min S 4.1 G 5.1 39°F 38°F1022.2 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 18 mi68 min SW 2.9 G 4.1 41°F 39°F1022.6 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 19 mi56 min SSW 5.1 G 5.1 42°F 34°F1022.4 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 24 mi74 min WSW 12 G 13 1023.4 hPa (+0.4)
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 28 mi56 min 42°F 38°F1022.4 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 34 mi89 min SSW 2.9 47°F 1022 hPa29°F
44090 43 mi44 min 39°F1 ft
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 43 mi62 min 44°F 37°F1020.3 hPa
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 48 mi54 min 5.8 G 7.8 39°F 35°F

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA9 mi81 minWSW 710.00 miFair42°F23°F47%1022.1 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA12 mi82 minW 610.00 miFair41°F19°F43%1021.9 hPa
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI15 mi81 minW 410.00 miFair43°F21°F42%1022.2 hPa
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI16 mi83 minSW 510.00 miFair41°F19°F41%1022.4 hPa
N. Kingston / Quonset, RI17 mi24 minWSW 1210.00 miClear0°F0°F%1022 hPa
Pawtucket, North Central State Airport, RI19 mi78 minW 610.00 miFair40°F19°F43%1016.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEWB

Wind History from EWB (wind in knots)
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W8W86SW666566546N7N745556

Tide / Current Tables for Fall River, Massachusetts
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Fall River
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:40 AM EST     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:29 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:51 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:00 AM EST     4.82 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:33 AM EST     New Moon
Sun -- 02:06 PM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:29 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 08:17 PM EST     4.55 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.3-0.2-0.20.10.823.34.44.84.43.320.80.1-0.100.61.52.73.94.54.33.42.1

Tide / Current Tables for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:14 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:10 AM EST     2.28 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:28 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:50 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:24 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:33 AM EST     New Moon
Sun -- 10:57 AM EST     -2.33 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:16 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:30 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:32 PM EST     2.64 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:57 PM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:26 PM EST     -2.23 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.9-1.6-1-0.20.81.72.31.90.7-0.9-2-2.3-2.1-1.7-1.1-0.30.71.72.52.51.6-0.1-1.5-2.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.