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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pottawattamie Park, IN

June 25, 2024 1:25 AM CDT (06:25 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:12 AM   Sunset 8:27 PM
Moonrise 11:34 PM   Moonset 8:57 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LMZ046 Michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 359 Pm Edt Mon Jun 24 2024

.small craft advisory in effect from 2 am edt Tuesday through Tuesday afternoon - .

Tonight - East winds 10 knots or less becoming south and increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Gusts up to 25 knots late. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 2 feet or less.

Tuesday - South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west and diminishing to around 10 knots. Gusts up to 30 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Tuesday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet.

Wednesday - West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature at st. Joseph is 72 degrees and at michigan city is 71 degrees.

LMZ005
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pottawattamie Park, IN
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Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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978 FXUS63 KIWX 250441 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1241 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- A line of thunderstorms is expected to move through late overnight through early Tuesday morning bringing a chance for locally strong/damaging winds.

- Confidence remains low on details regarding Tuesday afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. If these develop, large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rain will be main threats.

- Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions expected Thursday and Friday before additional rain chances return Saturday.

UPDATE
Issued at 809 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Main focus remains on convective chances and intensity later tonight into Tuesday morning as convection over MN/WI congeals into an upscale growing MCS. The genesis of this is currently underway well upstream over northern MN. Of note through is a separate area of scattered convection north of a warm in srn MN and sw WI as of this writing. The HRRR is starting to pick up on this and hints at this elevated activity surviving east into the area between 7-11z as a corridor of strong low-mid level theta-e advection overspreads the area from west to east. Bumped up PoPs during this time to account for these trends, with this activity to generally hold below severe limits. Attention then turns to the upscale growing MCS and a possible bowing segment turning south into the area between roughly 11-15z Tue AM. This activity does outpace more favorable flow and instability with a trend toward backbuilding and an outflow dominant line this far south, though a wind threat (50-60 mph winds) definitely remains in play across northern portions of the forecast area if a more pronounced bowing segment is realized upstream over WI and Lake MI.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 250 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

After our extended heat wave last week, we return to a more active, complex weather pattern over the next 24-36 hours.
Convection currently in the Dakotas and MN will grow upscale and evolve into a MCS as we head through the evening and overnight hours. Overall agreement is for this complex to maintain intensity through Wisconsin where the greatest instability will reside, along with the stronger shear. A gradual weakening should take place as it works its way southeastward across SE Lake Michigan and Indiana where a rapid dropoff in overnight instability will be located. Nevertheless, mesoscale maintenance of the stronger cells may allow them to produce instances of strong/damaging wind gusts as they push into our forecast area and the updated Day 1 Outlook from SPC now drags a Slight Risk (2 of 5) into North Central Indiana and Southwest Michigan. CAMs have begun to latch onto this better as well, and given the 4mb pressure rises on the HRRR as the MCV moves across the lake, there is some concern for seiche activity along with an increase in wave action and rip current risk leading into Tuesday. Some closer evaluation of this will be needed as we head into the overnight hours...

In the wake of the late overnight into early tomorrow morning convective complex, steep low/mid level lapse rates and hot daytime temperatures will contribute to rapid and intense instability across the forecast area. Bulk shear will be limited, ranging from 20-30kt, which will likely prevent a more significant severe episode if anything develops (more below). A corridor of low LCL heights will be favorable for a tornado environment, however, we will need existing surface boundaries to enhance low level helicity as this parameter looks meager.
It`s worth noting that confidence in triggers due to the aforementioned earlier convection, and a lack of strong forcing during the day, may keep a lid on afternoon thunderstorms altogether. Therefore, at this time, confidence is very low in Tuesday afternoon/evening severe potential. If anything does develop, the thermodynamic profile will help to create robust updrafts with a hail and damaging wind threat; we`ll just have to see how the AM convection shakes out first.

Fortunately, the hottest day of the week will be tomorrow before a frontal passage returns us back into more seasonable temperatures. We will have dry days on Thursday and Friday before another shortwave and surface front brings additional chances for rain and storms.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1233 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Medium confidence at best for this TAF cycle as two clusters of thunderstorms bear watching.

Generally expect dry condtions thorugh the critical TAF period (especially at KFWA). The exception could be KSBN depending on the evolution of thunderstorms developing over northeast IL in the vicnity of an outflow boundary. Steering flow is from the northwest such that these storms could drift to KSBN, but upper- level support for this is lacking overall.

The second area of storms to watch have quickly grown upscale over western WI. These are forecast to congeal and strengthen into an MCS, racing southeast and into Michigan. I`ve adjusted timing the TAFs with the latest guidance. The strength of these stroms will be monitored closely and amendments will be made as needed.

Lastly, additional storms are possible late this afternoon, depending on the evolution of the aformentioned MCS. Confidence is low, so a dry late-afternoon TAF is offered for the time being.



IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043- 046.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 1 mi55 minWSW 18G24 77°F 29.7566°F
45170 4 mi55 minS 19G25 75°F 1 ft29.81
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 15 mi45 minS 8.9G13 75°F 29.81
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 23 mi55 minS 23G29 76°F 73°F2 ft29.7966°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 33 mi85 minS 2.9G13 77°F 29.83
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 34 mi67 minSSE 9.9G14 79°F 29.8066°F
45198 37 mi45 minS 16G21 76°F 69°F1 ft29.81
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 38 mi55 minSSW 28G29 85°F 75°F
CNII2 39 mi40 minS 16 79°F 62°F
OKSI2 41 mi145 minWNW 1.9G8 80°F
45174 49 mi55 minSSE 18G21 75°F 68°F1 ft29.7169°F


Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Northern Indiana, IN,




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