Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Grove, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 4:16PM Saturday December 14, 2019 12:53 PM EST (17:53 UTC) Moonrise 7:47PMMoonset 10:17AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 953 Am Est Sat Dec 14 2019
.gale warning in effect through Sunday evening...
This afternoon..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft, except 5 to 8 ft at the bay entrance. Areas of fog early. Patchy fog. Isolated tstms. Rain early, then a chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft, except 6 to 9 ft at the bay entrance. Areas of fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 40 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft, except 6 to 9 ft at the bay entrance.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft, except 4 to 7 ft at the bay entrance.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming E after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain with snow likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft, except 4 to 6 ft at the bay entrance. A chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed and Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 953 Am Est Sat Dec 14 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Rapidly intensifying low pres will lift across new england this afternoon and into quebec tonight. The result will be strong gale to storm force wind gusts today, followed by westerly gales tonight through Sun night. High pres builds briefly over the waters on Mon, then is followed by a storm system approaching from the southwest Mon night. This low will lift northeast over southern new england early Tue. Westerly gales possible Wed into Wed night. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Grove, MA
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location: 41.74, -71.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 141546 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1046 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

SYNOPSIS. Heavy rain this morning will taper off to scattered showers this afternoon, but the potential for some river/stream flooding continues through the weekend as a result of runoff. In addition, a period of strong to damaging wind gusts is expected today across the southeast New England coast, with the focus on the Cape and Islands. Dry and blustery conditions will continue Sunday. Below average temperatures move back in Monday along with another round of snow arriving from the southwest, changing to rain along the coast. There may also be a wintry mix Monday night into Tuesday, which will change back to spotty light snow Tuesday night. The snow will linger into early Wednesday, then gusty northwest winds return Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Dry and very cold conditions will linger through the end of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. 1040 AM update .

Rain is exiting SNE this morning as dry slot overspreads the region. Heavier rainfall and convection sliding just SE of ACK late this morning. Expect just a few showers into the afternoon with additional shower activity moving in from the SW later in the afternoon as strong shortwave approaches. Some elevated instability but it is confined mainly offshore. Flood watches have been cancelled.

Core of the 80-85kt low level jet is currently moving over the Cape/Islands. Strong low level inversion will prevent these winds from completely mixing down, however, noting some 40-45 kt gusts which have recently developed over ACK and the outer Cape. This is about 50 percent of the jet which is what we normally anticipate when a strong inversion is in place. So there will be a brief window of 44-55 mph gusts for the next few hours for the Cape/Islands, then the core of the jet moves to the east around 18z with the risk of strong winds decreasing.

Warm front aligned along the coastal plain with southerly winds and temps well into the 50s to lower 60s across eastern MA/RI, but light N winds and temps in the 40s interior. This milder air may advance a bit further west this afternoon as next shortwave and sfc low approaches from the west, but temps will likely hold in the 40s in the CT valley and interior northern MA.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/. * Additional Wind Headlines may be needed tonight *

Tonight .

Shortwave energy rotating through the region will allow for some scattered showers during the evening, especially across the interior. Otherwise, the main story will be the wind tonight. Low pressure will continue to bomb out as it lifts into Quebec tonight, dropping towards 970 mb. The result will be a developing west to southwest LLJ of 45 to 60 knots. Steepening lapse rates will allow for 35 to 50 mph wind gusts and additional wind headlines might be needed tonight. This is especially true across the Cape/Islands, where mixing over the ocean will be ideal with WSW flow. Low temps by daybreak will be in the middle 30s to the lower 40s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Highlights .

* Expect dry but blustery conditions Sunday into Sunday night, with snow showers lingering across the higher inland terrain. Pockets of minor flooding will linger as area rivers crest from the rainfall and snowmelt runoff.

* A seasonably cold Monday. The next low pressure center will move in during the day, bringing snow to start then changing to rain along the immediate coast and a wintry mix inland that will linger through late Tuesday or Tuesday evening. Confidence is moderate to high for an impactful storm, but where the precipitation types will occur remains uncertain due to model solution spread.

* Dry conditions but unseasonably cold temperatures expected Wednesday night through Friday. Details .

Sunday .

** Strong winds and pockets of minor river flooding **

May see some light snow showers linger across the E slopes of the Berkshires through midday with only light accumulations, otherwise expect dry conditions as blustery west winds move in. However, with the tight pressure gradient around the exiting low pressure into the Gulf of St. Lawrence, winds will become strong especially along the immediate coast and across the coastal waters. Will see gusts up to 25 to 35 kt across most areas, except up to around 40 kt along the immediate coast and especially Cape Cod and the islands. Gale Warnings will likely remain in place through the day.

Another area of concern will be the localized flooding that will likely occur along the local rivers and streams as the levels crest due not only to the heavy rainfall that started Friday night, but with snowmelt thanks to mild temperatures that moved in. NERFC and our office continue to monitor river levels for continued pockets of minor flooding.

Monday through Tuesday .

**Potential for snow becoming a wintry mix, except changing to rain along the immediate coast during Tuesday**

A continued progressive mid level steering pattern in place across the lower 48, with occasional deep H5 troughs that move across through the week, another cold front will push across the region by Monday morning with another shot of cold air moving across.

With the continued steady fast flow aloft, another low from the mid Mississippi and Ohio valleys will shift E-NE. This will be another swath of light snow across from SW-NE during the midday and afternoon hours. May see the precip mainly in the form of rain along the immediate S coast, however. While temps remain at or below freezing through Monday night across the region, milder air will lift above the cold dome overnight which will cause a wintry mix of precipitation away from the coast. Temps will start to slowly rise overnight, which should change to mix to rain across the coastal plain, but may see a prolonged period of snow, sleet and/or freezing rain across the interior. Noting the higher QPF values, on the order of 0.25 to 0.4 inches remains S of the Mass Pike, but the lower amounts will still fall where the mixed precip occurs. May need another round of winter headlines for this event, but will continue to monitor this closely. As an elongated low passes S of the region Tuesday, will still see the mixed precip Tuesday morning, then the colder air will come back in as the low pushes offshore. Still quite a few questions on the exact track and impacts that could occur with this system Monday night and Tuesday, so below average confidence for this portion of the forecast.

At this point, light snow or rain should taper off as it pushes offshore Tuesday night.

Wednesday through Friday .

**Below average temperatures Thursday and Friday**

Large high pressure will build slowly E out of western Quebec to the Appalachians Wednesday, passing across the region sometime Friday. So, while we see dry conditions, a shot over arctic air will push out of Will see a shot of very cold air work in from the N-NW. The coldest air move across on Thursday, with highs only in the mid teens across the E slopes of the Berkshires ranging to the mid-upper 20s on Thursday! These readings will run around 15 to near 20 degrees below seasonal levels. The low Thursday night are forecast to drop to the single digits across N central/NW Mass ranging to around 20 along the immediate S coast.

As the high shifts slowly offshore Friday, should see slowly recover, but look to remain in the 20s to lower 30s.

The only precip currently forecast would be a batch of light snow across the E slopes of the Berkshires around the Thursday afternoon/evening timeframe.

AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

12Z Update .

Short Term /through Tonight/ .

Today . Moderate to high confidence. Widespread IFR-LIFR conditions in heavy rain this morning. Low risk for an embedded t-storm or two across eastern MA/RI. The inversion holds across the interior where LLWS will be a big concern along with areas of fog. A period of strong winds will mix down across portions of southeast New England where southerly wind gusts of 40 to 50 knots expected roughly between 14z and 18z. Strongest of those winds across the Cape/Islands, where gusts up to 55 knots can not be ruled out. The heavy and steady rainfall ends by afternoon, but additional scattered showers are expected through the remainder of the day.

Tonight . Moderate to high confidence. Scattered showers this evening gives way to mainly dry weather overnight. IFR-MVFR conditions this evening trend towards VFR conditions overnight. However, WSW wind gusts of 30 to 40 knots expected with up to 45 knots across the Cape/Islands.

KBOS Terminal . Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/ .

Sunday: VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt.

Sunday Night: VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 45 kt.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SN.

Monday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. RA, SN likely, PL, FZRA.

Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. RA likely, chance SN, FZRA likely, PL likely.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SN.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SN.

MARINE. Short Term /through Tonight/ .

Today . Moderate to high confidence. A strong low level jet, which peaks between 80 and 90 knots later this morning into mid afternoon will result in strong gale to storm force wind gusts developing. Despite the inversion, the powerful LLJ is very close to the ground and some of it will be tapped in heavy rain and perhaps a few embedded storms. Expect southerly wind gusts of 40 to 50 knots later this morning into the afternoon. Brief gusts up to 55 knots are possible near and especially southeast of the Cape/Nantucket, where the core of the LLJ traverses. Seas build to between 10 and 15 feet. Vsbys will also be reduced in heavy rain and possibly a few embedded t-storms.

Tonight . High confidence. Low pressure bombs to near 970 mb as it lifts from New England and Quebec tonight. The result will be strong gale force WSW wind gusts on the order of 40 to 45 knots.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/ .

Sunday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 15 ft.

Sunday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain, slight chance of snow.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Rain likely, snow likely, patchy fog. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain, patchy fog.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Slight chance of snow. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.



TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. A 1 to 1.50 foot storm surge today may result in some very minor coastal flooding/splashover at the midday high tide along the eastern MA coast. A coastal flood statement has been issued, but the storm surge is not expected to be high enough to result in any significant issues.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . Wind Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for MAZ018-019-021. Wind Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for MAZ022>024. RI . None. MARINE . Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ231>237-250-251- 254>256. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ230.

SYNOPSIS . Frank/EVT NEAR TERM . KJC SHORT TERM . Frank LONG TERM . EVT AVIATION . Frank/EVT MARINE . Frank/EVT HYDROLOGY . TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 3 mi54 min S 11 G 15 50°F 43°F994.8 hPa (-3.9)
PVDR1 5 mi54 min SSE 12 G 12 52°F 995.1 hPa (-3.9)52°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 7 mi54 min SSW 11 G 14 58°F 995 hPa (-3.9)
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 7 mi54 min S 6 G 8 54°F 41°F994.9 hPa (-3.9)
FRXM3 7 mi54 min 59°F 58°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 7 mi69 min SW 7 53°F 996 hPa53°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 7 mi54 min SW 5.1 G 8.9 55°F 995.4 hPa (-3.7)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 8 mi54 min 58°F 43°F995.3 hPa (-3.8)
PRUR1 9 mi54 min 53°F 53°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 12 mi60 min S 8 G 13 53°F 43°F995.2 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 16 mi54 min SSW 8 G 8.9 52°F 42°F994.9 hPa (-3.5)
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 28 mi54 min SSW 19 G 20 54°F 995.2 hPa (-3.9)
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 37 mi54 min 56°F 43°F995.8 hPa (-4.0)
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 43 mi69 min SSE 7 997 hPa
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 45 mi54 min 51°F 41°F993.7 hPa (-5.1)
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 49 mi60 min S 8 G 8 52°F 47°F994.5 hPa

Wind History for Conimicut Light, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI7 mi63 minSSW 121.00 miFog/Mist61°F60°F97%995.3 hPa
N. Kingston / Quonset, RI11 mi64 minSW 100.63 miFog/Mist59°F59°F100%995.3 hPa
Pawtucket, North Central State Airport, RI13 mi58 minVar 31.25 miFog/Mist59°F59°F100%989.7 hPa
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI14 mi61 minS 70.50 miFog58°F57°F97%995.1 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA18 mi61 minSSW 14 G 180.50 miFog58°F57°F100%995.6 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA18 mi62 minSSW 9 G 151.50 miFog/Mist62°F59°F90%995.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPVD

Wind History from PVD (wind in knots)
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1 day ago6CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmN3N5CalmN3CalmCalmN3N5N4
2 days agoNW7NW10NW6W5SW5SW3S5S4W3W4W6W3NW9NW17
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Tide / Current Tables for Warren, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island
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Warren
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:59 AM EST     -0.56 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:17 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:18 AM EST     5.59 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:45 PM EST     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:14 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:46 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:45 PM EST     4.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.1-0.1-0.6-0.20.51.62.8455.65.44.22.50.8-0.3-0.5-0.10.71.62.63.64.34.53.8

Tide / Current Tables for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:06 AM EST     -2.77 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:36 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:27 AM EST     1.74 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 09:15 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:46 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:22 PM EST     -2.99 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:42 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:14 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:46 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:50 PM EST     2.20 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:25 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.8-2.4-1.5-0.50.311.41.71.71-0.4-2-2.9-2.8-1.9-0.70.31.11.72.12.21.80.7-1

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.