Friday, July19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Grove, MA

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Sunrise 5:25AMSunset 8:17PM Friday July 19, 2019 12:28 AM EDT (04:28 UTC) Moonrise 10:10PMMoonset 7:51AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 1022 Pm Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Overnight..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. A slight chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..N winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Patchy fog.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..NE winds around 5 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1022 Pm Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. The remnants of barry will pass across the southern half of the waters overnight. A warm front will lift ne over the waters Fri behind which will be an increase in heat and humidity. A weak frontal boundary moves through Fri night possibly triggering a few showers, but overall it will dry, warm and muggy. The heat and humidity will continue to build over the waters Sat and Sun. A few showers or tstms could develop Sun afternoon into Sun night as a frontal boundary meanders south across the region then becomes nearly stationary in and around the south coast. The front could become the focus for showers across the southern half of the waters Mon and Tue. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Grove, MA
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location: 41.74, -71.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 190309
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
1109 pm edt Thu jul 18 2019

Synopsis
Showers along the south coast and CAPE cod will weaken and push
offshore overnight. Sunshine and warmth return on Friday as
some of the hottest weather in years starts to move across the
region. Dangerous heat and humidity are on tap this weekend with
heat index values approaching or perhaps exceeding 110 degrees.

Dry weather should dominate this weekend, but a few
thunderstorms are possible later Sunday and Sunday night as a
cold front crosses the region. Much cooler and less humid
follows for the next work week, especially on Monday with the
potential for some showers.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
1040 pm update...

stationary front S and W of the region will linger overnight as a
weak wave of low pressure passes S of the islands. Pwat values
remain at or above 2 inches from about a kpvd-kpvc line southward as
seen on SPC 02z pwat map, about where the bands have set up. These
continue to move eastward as suggested by the SPC h85 moisture
transport vectors, so any precip should be confined to the immediate
s coast and across the waters.

Latest radar trends showing the coverage of these bands has been
lessening as they shift E as the best forcing has also been shifting
e, so should see shower activity diminish through the remainder of
the night.

Low level moisture does linger across SE new england with t td
spreads at or below 3 degrees. This will combine with general e-ne
wind flow to keep patchy fog will linger through most of the night,
some of which will be locally dense mainly across CAPE cod and the
islands.

Temps will bottom out in the lower-mid 60s across most areas, though
a few spots in the urban heat islands may remain a bit milder.

Have updated near term to bring conditions current. Incorporated
trends through the overnight hours, which was close to the previous
forecast.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Friday night
As of 420 pm...

not much going tomorrow. Flow turns back to the west southwest
and starts to advect in some warmer air and push the moisture
out. That will bring back partly to mostly sunny skies. With
850mb temperatures up around 19c, that suggest the potential for
surface highs reaching 33-34c (92-94f). With some clouds
around, we may just fall short of that potential, but upper 80s
to lower 90s is a good bet. Right along the coast, especially
eastern ma, there will be a sea breeze to drop temperatures a
few degrees. Models suggest convection developing during the day
out across ny state. Could be a rogue shower that makes it into
the far western part of the forecast area Friday evening, but
at this point i've kept the pops out there less than 15%. Friday
night should be quiet, though with increasing dewpoints, there
should be areas of low clouds fog that develop off the south
coast through the CAPE and islands.

During the day Friday, heat index values will approach the mid
90s in most areas, with 100f or so in the connecticut river
value. This is due to the combo of the hot temperatures and
dewpoints rising to near 70. "by the book", this meets only heat
advisory thresholds. However since the heat will continue to
build for the weekend, we've decided to issue an excessive heat
warning that becomes effective Friday and continues into Sunday,
rather than try to split hairs and separate out Friday vs
Saturday and Sunday.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
Highlights...

* dangerous heat humidity this weekend: heat indices may
approach or even exceed 110 degrees
* a few thunderstorms are possible Sun afternoon night as a
cold front crosses the region
* much cooler less humid for the next work week especially mon
with the potential for some showers.

Details...

this weekend...

strong upper level ridging across the mid-atlantic southeast
states will pump a highly anomalous hot humid airmass into
southern new england. 850t around +22c will support and
westerly flow will support near record high temperatures this
weekend. In fact... One of the top cips analogs for this weekend
is july 22nd, 2011 which is the last time many of our sites
reached the century mark. Some guidance may be a few degrees
too cool given its tendency to trend towards climatology.

Overall, expect high temperatures to generally be in the 96 to
102 degree range away from localized marine influences along
the coast.

More important than the actual temperatures will be the heat
index values. We have an EML in place on sat, which tends to
keep the surface dewpoints from mixing out. On Sunday, a cold
front will be dropping south and dewpoints may pool for a time
along the boundary. Given the above expect dewpoints mainly in
the 70s over the weekend. The expected high temperatures and
dewpoints will likely result in heat index values approaching
or even exceeding 110 degrees during peak afternoon heating
this weekend. Therefore, excessive heat warnings are in effect
this weekend for basically the entire region. Heat advisories
have been issued for CAPE cod marthas vineyard.

Much of the weekend will feature dry weather, but there will be
a couple things will need to watch. An elevated mixed layer in
place Sat into early Sun along with very high instability for
this part of the country. However, it looks like we probably
will be capped keeping us dry Sat into early sun. That being
said given the extreme instability and an EML in place, there is
a very small risk that a complex of thunderstorms develop and
cross our region. While this appears to be a rather low risk at
this time, if it were to happen it would have some high end
potential given the environment. A better chance exists for a
few showers thunderstorms later Sunday into Sunday night with
the cold front, but low confidence on areal coverage.

Monday through Thursday...

a much cooler less humid airmass works into the region behind
the cold front, especially Monday and Tuesday. A wave of low
pressure developing on the front to our south may result in some
showers isolated t-storms Mon which may linger into part of
tue, especially across southeast new england. This will also
help to keep temperatures much cooler then what we have
experienced over the weekend. Mainly dry weather should allow
temps to warm up some by next Wed thu, but readings should not
be too far from typical late july temperatures.

Aviation 03z Friday through Tuesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday night ... Moderate confidence.

0340z update...

overnight... Expect MVFR-ifr conditions will prevail overnight
across most areas. Areas of lifr along the S coast, CAPE cod and
the islands. Should see conditions improve toVFR after 09z as
drier air moves in.

Friday... Conditions will improve toVFR across most of the
region by mid morning as the clouds finally dissipate. Winds
will turn southwest, but onshore sea breezes are expected to
develop and remain right along the coast from mid morning to mid
afternoon. Southwest flow will strengthen enough by late
afternoon that it should overcome the sea breeze.

Friday night... Low clouds and areas of fog are expected to
develop Friday evening across the waters near and south of cape
cod and last all night. That will result in ifr to lifr
conditions.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Outlook Saturday through Tuesday ... High confidence.

Saturday:VFR. Breezy.

Saturday night:VFR.

Sunday through Sunday night:VFR. Breezy. Chance shra, chance
tsra.

Monday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance shra,
isolated tsra.

Monday night:VFR. Chance shra, isolated tsra.

Tuesday:VFR. Slight chance shra, isolated tsra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday night ... High confidence.

1040 pm update...

overnight... Showers and areas of fog will linger along s
coastal new england and the southern waters. Visibility will be
at or below 3nm, lowest in vicinity nantucket, but should
gradually improve toward daybreak. Light e-ne wind flow will
slowly back to N toward daybreak.

Friday and Friday night... Winds will turn to SW during the day
Friday and continue to Friday night, running about 15 knots.

Seas generally 1 to 3 feet, though 4 foot seas well south of
cape cod. Late Friday and Friday night, expecting areas of fog
to develop along and off of the south coast and over to the cape
and islands. Visibilities could be reduced to less than 1 mile.

Outlook Saturday through Tuesday ... High confidence.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Patchy fog.

Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Patchy fog. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Sunday through Sunday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, chance of
thunderstorms.

Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Monday night: winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers,
isolated thunderstorms.

Tuesday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Climate
Record highest min temps for Saturday july 20:
bos: 75 in 2016
bdl: 73 in 1975
pvd: 77 in 1983
orh: 72 in 2013
record highs for Saturday july 20:
bos: 99 in 1991
bdl: 100 in 1991
pvd: 101 in 1991
orh: 92 in 1901
record highest min temps for Sunday july 21:
bos: 81 in 1991
bdl: 74 in 1977
pvd: 77 in 1980
orh: 73 in 1991
record highest MAX temps for Sunday july 21
bos: 102 in 1977
bdl: 101 in 1991
pvd: 102 in 1991
orh: 95 in 1926
last occurrence of 100f or higher temperatures
bos: 7 22 2011 (103f)
bdl: 7 18 2012 (100f)
pvd: 7 22 2011 (101f)
orh: 7 4 1911 (102f)

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Excessive heat warning from noon Friday to 8 pm edt Sunday for
ctz002>004.

Ma... Excessive heat warning from noon Friday to 8 pm edt Sunday for
maz002>021-026.

Heat advisory from noon Friday to 8 pm edt Sunday for maz022-
023.

Ri... Excessive heat warning from noon Friday to 8 pm edt Sunday for
riz001>007.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Frank ajn
near term... Frank evt
short term... Ajn
long term... Frank
aviation... Frank evt ajn
marine... Frank ajn
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 3 mi58 min NNE 4.1 G 7 65°F 75°F1013.3 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 7 mi58 min NE 6 G 8 67°F 1013 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 7 mi58 min NE 5.1 G 7 66°F 71°F1012.9 hPa
FRXM3 7 mi58 min 66°F 64°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 7 mi103 min NE 7 65°F 1013 hPa65°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 7 mi58 min NE 5.1 G 8.9 66°F 1013.5 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 8 mi58 min 66°F 78°F1013.4 hPa
PRUR1 9 mi58 min 67°F 65°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 12 mi58 min NNE 8.9 G 11 73°F1013.3 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 16 mi58 min NNE 4.1 G 7 66°F 62°F1012.9 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 37 mi58 min 67°F 73°F1012.6 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 43 mi103 min W 1 67°F 1013 hPa67°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 45 mi58 min 67°F 1013.5 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 49 mi58 min N 2.9 G 6 67°F 68°F1012.6 hPa

Wind History for Conimicut Light, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI7 mi37 minN 510.00 miOvercast65°F63°F93%1013.4 hPa
N. Kingston / Quonset, RI11 mi98 minENE 1010.00 miOvercast66°F64°F94%1013.2 hPa
Pawtucket, North Central State Airport, RI13 mi32 minN 310.00 miOvercast64°F60°F87%1008.3 hPa
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI14 mi35 minN 410.00 miOvercast67°F64°F93%1012.8 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA18 mi35 minNNE 510.00 miOvercast66°F63°F90%1012.5 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA18 mi36 minN 010.00 miOvercast66°F63°F90%1012.8 hPa

Wind History from PVD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4CalmW3N4SW4S4S3CalmCalmN15
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2 days agoW4W5W4W3W3W3W4W3CalmSW3S7SE9SE11
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Tide / Current Tables for Warren, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island
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Warren
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:38 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:51 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 10:32 AM EDT     4.75 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:36 PM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:48 PM EDT     5.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.82.31.10.40.40.61.22344.64.73.82.51.30.60.50.91.52.23.24.24.95.1

Tide / Current Tables for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:13 AM EDT     -2.51 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:20 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:51 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:58 AM EDT     2.49 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 11:20 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:42 PM EDT     -2.35 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:57 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:19 PM EDT     1.99 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 10:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:27 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.8-2.5-2.3-1.7-1-0.30.51.42.22.520.6-1.1-2.1-2.3-1.9-1.3-0.700.81.521.80.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.