Tuesday, April7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Grove, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 7:19PM Tuesday April 7, 2020 9:37 PM EDT (01:37 UTC) Moonrise 6:54PMMoonset 6:23AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 716 Pm Edt Tue Apr 7 2020
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain after midnight.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. Rain.
Wed night..E winds around 5 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Sat through Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Pm Edt Tue Apr 7 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Low pressure exits the great lakes and tracks south of new england early Wednesday, then across georges bank and finally out to sea. Then a strong cold front crosses new eng Thu afternoon. Low pres develops on this front in new england, intensifying as it moves into the gulf of maine Thu night then into the maritimes Fri. High pressure will be centered southeast of the waters for Sat. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Grove, MA
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Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 072356 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 756 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure in place will give way to a weak area of low pressure moving in from the Great Lakes. This low pressure will spread a period of rains later tonight into early Wednesday as it moves into the waters south of Southern New England. Another system moves in Thursday, bringing more rain and scattered thunderstorms. Scattered showers are possible Thursday night through Friday. Drier weather for this weekend before our next wet weather system early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. Made some minor tweaks to the forecast this evening using the latest high resolution guidance. Goal was to try to refine the timing and location details. Have higher confidence in showers and possible thunderstorms towards CT and southern RI.

Minor tweaks to temperatures to bring them back in line with observed trends.

Previous Discussion .

The primary feature of interest for much of the night, however, is a NW to SE oriented and rather well-defined warm front associated with a low pressure area as of early this afternoon near northern Michigan. The low and its related warm front will progress east- southeast through the northern mid-Atlantic region into Southern New England later tonight, with increasing clouds through midnight and rains spreading east-northeastward especially for the overnight hours.

Temperatures look to remain mild enough even across the terrain to stay as rain. However worth noting the thermal contrast through the warm front is fairly robust, and in addition to that, I did notice on SPC's mesoanalysis page a plume of weak mid-level instability (700-500 mb lapse rates ~6-7 C/km) even on the north side of the warm front. Some guidance - most notably the NAM and the RAP - brings a sliver of this weak elevated instability into a part of northern CT into central/southern RI and the south coastal waters overnight tonight (roughly from a South Windsor to Putnam CT to Coventry RI line). Though rain should predominate, I did opt to include some isolated thunder (basically rumbles) along and south of this line. Rains should continue into the Wednesday morning for most. Model guidance QPF off today's 12z guidance was a bit greater than previous runs. Opted for rain totals thru 12z Wednesday from a quarter to third of an inch for southern RI into the Hartford area, then tapering to a tenth to two-tenths of an inch further north and east.

Lows tonight mainly in the mid-upper 30s to the lower-mid 40s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Wednesday:

Weak low pressure and attendant warm frontal-related showers pass south of the coastal waters through the morning hours. As these features pass to our south, likely to see a modest uptick in NE wind speeds into the morning hrs and especially near the eastern MA coast (indicated by the NAM 975 mb winds which tick up to around 25-kt just offshore). Eventually these winds will lighten and shift to easterly moving into the afternoon.

Some gradual improvement with rains coming to an end by late- morning/early afternoon (latest towards Cape Cod and the offshore waters), and skies trending mostly to partly cloudy. So the second half of the day is looking somewhat better than the first half, but with NE to E onshore flow and a shorter period of sun, I opted to keep temperatures on the cooler side of guidance, into the upper 40s to the mid 50s.

Wednesday Night:

Weak shortwave ridging/modest 500 mb height rises, ahead of a strong frontal system to affect our area into Thursday, should allow for dry conditions through the first part of the overnight. Model guidance shows moisture levels starting to rise on SE flow into the second half of the night, with increasing clouds spreading from west to east. In addition, 500 mb height falls then spread into western MA into northern CT into the early morning hrs. PoPs increasing to chance type levels for these locations though most should stay dry. Lows mainly into the upper 30s to mid 40s with modest SE breezes.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. * Widespread rain Thursday with scattered thunderstorms

* Lighter rain, and high elevation snow possible, on Friday with a few rumbles of thunder also possible

* Potential for minor coastal flooding Wednesday to Friday around high tide across the east and south coasts of MA and RI. See the Tides and Coastal Flooding section below for more details.

* Temperatures running near to below normal through Saturday, then a warm up

Thursday .

This still appears to be the most active weather day during this portion of the forecast. Potent mid level low shifts over northern New England, with a low pressure passing through our region. Almost certainly looking at some rain for much of southern New England, with some wet snow possible across the higher terrain. Drier air rushes in behind the cold front of this system, drying our the forecast into Friday.

As for thunderstorm potential, surface-based instability is not the best. However, mid level lapse rates are better than moist adiabatic with a strong low-level jet from the south. These factors are enough to warrant at least a mention of isolated thunderstorms. Still too early to say if any of these thunderstorms could be severe.

Friday .

Low pressure continues to rotate away from our region. Still in the cyclonic flow, so cannot dismiss the idea of a few showers during the day, rain for most with snow possible across the higher terrain.

Saturday through Sunday .

The weekend looks drier as a ridge of high pressure makes its way east across the Mid Atlantic states. This should mean a warming trend into Sunday.

Monday into Tuesday .

Another low pressure should move across the Great Lakes, leading to another round of showers sometime from Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. Timing is not yet locked down. Looking warm enough for all rain.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight: High confidence in trends, moderate on timing.

Increasing/lowering clouds associated with a warm front which will eventually spread rains across the TAFs. Initial VFR with deterioration to MVFR ceilings (possible IFR ceilings south of BDL to PVD to the Cape airports) after 08/05-07Z with VFR-MVFR vsby rains spreading ESE through 08/08-12Z. Due to the dry air around, timing is a bit uncertain but could be an hour or two sooner than indicated in the TAFs.

Through midnight, mainly light/variable winds in the interior, SE 5-8 kt towards the Cape and at BOS. After midnight through 08/12Z, winds to shift to NE around 5-10 kt as front slides S of the coastal waters.

Wednesday: High confidence in trends, moderate on timing.

Initial MVFR, possible IFR with periods of rain to generally taper off through the morning. Gradual improvement from widespread MVFR to MVFR/VFR levels toward the afternoon. NE/ENE winds 4-8 kt in the interior, around 7-10 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt coastal MA and the Cape.

Wednesday Night: Moderate to high confidence.

Increasing moisture levels on SE flow will result in VFR-MVFR ceilings lowering to MVFR-IFR levels in the interior and across the higher terrain. For the coastal plain into the Cape, initial VFR to trend VFR/MVFR into the pre-dawn hrs. Rains should hold off until the pre-dawn hrs in the CT Valley with dry conditions elsewhere. SE winds 6-10 kt.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in the TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in the TAF.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/ .

Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA, patchy FG.

Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Friday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA.

Friday Night through Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday Night: VFR.

Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE. Winds and seas should remain below SCA thresholds through Wednesday night.

A warm front will bring a period of steady rains for most of the waters late tonight into Wednesday morning, with an outside/low chance for a rumble or two of thunder across the southern offshore waters overnight. Could see vsbys between 3-5 SM in rains, likely lowest south coastal waters. Winds to become NE on Wed AM, and could briefly reach marginal-SCA gusts with seas 3-4' (near 5' per the SWAN guidance off the NAM) on the eastern MA/Cape Cod waters. Wasn't confident enough on criteria being met to issue an SCA for these waters Wed AM, but may get close.

Winds lighten to under 20 kt and shift east later Wednesday and then SE into Wednesday night. Seas mainly 2-3' Wednesday night, though build to 2-4' by daybreak.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/ .

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms, patchy fog. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Thursday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

Friday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. 418 PM Update:

Astronomical tides are on the rise over the next several days (across multiple tidal cycles) due to the Supermoon. While the overall threat is limited by poor wave action, due to the high astro tides a number of tidal gages are forecast to be near flood stage or into minor flooding categories per Stevens Institute guidance.

Appears the greater potential for minor coastal flooding later tonight into Wednesday should exist for eastern coastal MA and Cape Cod/Nantucket, especially around the period of high tides. By Wednesday night into Thursday, stronger southerly winds ahead of a strong frontal system will raise the coastal flood threat across a larger area to include the South Coast and Narragansett Bay. Coastal Flood Advisories have been posted thru Friday following these general expectations.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Friday for MAZ019-022. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Friday for MAZ015-016. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for MAZ007. RI . Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Friday for RIZ002-004>007. MARINE . Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon for ANZ231-232-250-251-254-255.

SYNOPSIS . Belk/Loconto NEAR TERM . Belk/Loconto SHORT TERM . Loconto LONG TERM . Belk AVIATION . Belk/Loconto MARINE . Belk/Loconto TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . Loconto


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 3 mi67 min 54°F 47°F
PVDR1 5 mi67 min SW 9.9 G 15 56°F 1007 hPa35°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 7 mi67 min SSW 12 G 14 53°F 1007.1 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 7 mi67 min W 9.9 G 13 56°F 44°F1006.9 hPa
FRXM3 7 mi67 min 52°F 32°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 7 mi112 min WSW 8 51°F 1007 hPa38°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 7 mi67 min WSW 6 G 9.9 51°F 1007.7 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 8 mi67 min 53°F 47°F1007.4 hPa
PRUR1 9 mi67 min 51°F 35°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 12 mi67 min WSW 12 G 14 51°F 47°F1007.3 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 16 mi67 min SW 8.9 G 12 49°F 41°F1007.3 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 28 mi37 min WSW 16 G 16 1008.4 hPa (+0.0)
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 37 mi67 min 49°F 46°F1007.7 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 43 mi112 min S 4.1 48°F 1008 hPa34°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 45 mi67 min 51°F 44°F1005.4 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 49 mi67 min SW 5.1 G 8 53°F 47°F1007.1 hPa

Wind History for Conimicut Light, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI7 mi46 minWSW 1110.00 miA Few Clouds54°F32°F43%1007 hPa
N. Kingston / Quonset, RI11 mi47 minWSW 1210.00 miPartly Cloudy52°F33°F50%1007.1 hPa
Pawtucket, North Central State Airport, RI13 mi41 minWSW 610.00 miFair53°F34°F48%1001.5 hPa
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI14 mi44 minVar 410.00 miFair50°F30°F48%1007.1 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA18 mi44 minSW 610.00 miFair49°F32°F52%1006.9 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA18 mi45 minSSW 410.00 miFair50°F35°F57%1006.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPVD

Wind History from PVD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3CalmW4W6NW7NW7W7W8W4W5W76
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1 day agoS8SW5SW3SW3SW3W4NW3CalmN6N7N9N9N13--NE6--4N4SW6
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2 days agoE3E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmS4S4S7S8SE9S13SE16SE14S11S11S10S10S8

Tide / Current Tables for Warren, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island
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Warren
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Tue -- 01:24 AM EDT     -1.18 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:22 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:11 AM EDT     5.73 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:40 PM EDT     -1.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:33 PM EDT     6.28 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:35 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-1.1-1.1-0.40.72.13.75.15.75.33.91.90.1-0.9-1.1-0.60.51.93.65.16.16.253

Tide / Current Tables for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
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Tue -- 02:40 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:17 AM EDT     2.39 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:38 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:11 AM EDT     -3.02 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:57 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:40 PM EDT     2.62 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:06 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:35 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 11:37 PM EDT     -3.03 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.4-1.5-0.60.31.21.92.42.21.1-0.7-2.3-3-2.7-1.9-1011.92.52.61.80.2-1.6-2.8

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.