Sunrise 5:55 AM   Sunset 8:30 PM Moonrise 12:58 PM   Moonset 1:59 AM

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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013.thunderstorms over the waters - . Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible - .keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat - .lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414

PZZ300 220 Pm Pdt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters - A thermal trough pattern, while weaker today, will maintain gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas through the weekend. The strongest winds and steepest seas are expected south of cape blanco and during the afternoons and evenings. As the thermal trough restrengthens Friday, a brief period of gales is possible south of pistol river and beyond 15 nm from shore Friday afternoon. Conditions improve early next week as the upper level pattern changes and the thermal trough gets disrupted through the first half of the week.

FXUS66 KMFR 170142 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 642 PM PDT Thu May 16 2024

UPDATE
Updated the aviation section.

AVIATION
17/00Z TAFs...VFR conditions prevail for most of the area. The exception is along the coast north of Cape Blanco where areas of IFR conditions are occuring. Gusty breezes are present this evening across the region, strongest near the coast and east of the Cascades with gusts peaking around 25 kt.

A marine push is expected late this evening and overnight, bringing an expansion and thickening of marine stratus, with a slight chance of showers, to the coast and inland into the Umpqua Basin. IFR ceilings should lift to MVFR along the coast after 09Z as the marine layer deepens and spreads inland. Expect MVFR ceilings in the Umpqua Basin that are likely to spill into the Rogue and Illinois Valleys late tonight. This stratus is expected to clear during Friday morning. /DW

MARINE
Updated 200 PM Thursday, May 16, 2024...A thermal trough pattern, while weaker today, will maintain gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas through the weekend. Seas will be steepest and winds will be strongest south of Cape Blanco and during the afternoons and evenings. With the thermal trough weaker today, a very brief period of improved conditions is expected north of Cape Blanco tonight into early Friday. The thermal trough strengthens again by Friday and steep seas are expected to return north of Cape Blanco. Given the very brief period of improved conditions, have decided to just continue the advisory through tonight and into the weekend. As the thermal trough strengthens Friday, a brief period of northerly gales is possible late Friday afternoon beyond 15 nm from shore and south of Pistol River.

The thermal trough will linger through the weekend, maintaining gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas. Conditions improve early next week as the upper level pattern changes and the thermal trough gets disrupted through the first half of the week. /BR-y

PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 217 PM PDT Thu May 16 2024/

SHORT TERM
The rest of this afternoon through Friday night
What a difference a day makes in Brookings! The coastal eddy (southerly onshore winds near the coast) that formed last night kept it cloudy and much cooler there today. At this time yesterday (2 pm PDT), it was 89F. Today, it's sitting at 57 degrees, 32F lower than yesterday. The thermal trough that brought the strong offshore NE winds the last couple of days weakened some today. This resulted in the eddy and effectively cut off the warming NE winds a.k.a. the "Chetco Effect". The clouds have mostly dissipated there early this afternoon, but temperatures probably won't be able to rebound much higher than the low to mid 60s. Clouds have cleared along the coast north of Cape Blanco this afternoon and aside from a few fair weather cumulus here and there, it is sunny and warm across most of the rest of the area.

A cold front is pressing south and eastward across Washington currently. It will reach NW Oregon early this evening, then move across our area tonight through Friday morning. Breezy winds can be expected in advance of this front through this evening, but nothing too atypical -- gusts in the 20-30 mph range. We aren't anticipating much with this cold front, other than a marine push with a cool down on Friday. A few light rain showers (15-30% chance) could form overnight near the higher terrain from the Siskiyous northward, with highest PoPs from the Rogue-Umpqua Divide northward. Any showers that do form should end by early Friday morning. Clouds push all the way into the Cascades/Siskiyous, including here in the Rogue Valley by Friday morning, but won't get past the Cascades. They also won't last that long -- with a quickly drying air mass, most areas will turn out sunny again Friday afternoon. Overall, most inland areas will have 5-15 degrees (F) of cooling compared to today. The largest drop in temps compared to today will be over the east side. With the flow turning offshore again behind this front, it could actually be a little warmer than it was today along the SW Oregon coast.

A chilly night is expected east of the Cascades Friday night with lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s. West side valleys will be chilly as well (at least compared to recent nights), but not quite cold enough for frost with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. -Spilde

LONG TERM
Saturday 5/18 through Thursday 5/23
Southern Oregon and northern California will be mostly under the influence of a ridge of high pressure for most of the weekend, a trough of low pressure will dig southward over eastern Washington and Idaho.
Precipitation chances will remain to our north, and the main concern will be breezy to gusty northwesterly winds--particularly in the afternoons and evenings (gusting to 30 mph in some places, especially along ridgetops). Otherwise, this pattern will keep us near or slightly below normal temperatures for this time of year.
Still, we are not looking at freeze concerns west of the Cascades (nor frost at the coast or Umpqua basin).

By Monday, an additional trough pushes southward, but this front will be closer to central Oregon. This could bring additional breezy winds, but also our first shower chances--particularly along the higher terrain of the Cascades and coast range in Douglas and Coos County. Rainfall will be relatively light, and thunderstorms are generally not expected (less than a 10 percent chance).
Temperatures, however, will be several degrees cooler than over the weekend.

Then on Tuesday into Wednesday, another low spins southward, this time over western Oregon and could bring additional showers and thunderstorms (chances are just less than 15 percent at this time).
Winds will continue to be relatively breezy and temperatures will remain slightly below normal through the end of the week. Since the weather will be based on a low pressure system that has not formed yet, the confidence is relatively low--especially since the impacts will be tied to the location of the low. Used the National Blend of Models and am forecasting the most likely scenario at this point since clusters are in general agreement over the large scale and differ over some of the smaller features. Keep an eye to the forecast for updates.

Ensembles show that this low shifts eastward Thursday evening and is replaced with another weak trough digging southwest across the Pacific Northwest with limited precipitation chances toward the end of the work week. -Schaaf

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ356-376.

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Crescent City
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Thu -- 01:32 AM PDT     2.89 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:59 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:55 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:48 AM PDT     4.71 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:31 PM PDT     0.85 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:57 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:27 PM PDT     5.47 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:31 PM PDT     Sunset
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Crescent City, California, Tide feet

Brookings
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Thu -- 01:36 AM PDT     2.89 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:00 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:54 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:49 AM PDT     4.71 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:35 PM PDT     0.85 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:57 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:28 PM PDT     5.47 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:32 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon, Tide feet

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