East Dennis, MA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for East Dennis, MA

June 19, 2024 12:22 PM EDT (16:22 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:04 AM   Sunset 8:20 PM
Moonrise 6:24 PM   Moonset 2:48 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 1003 Am Edt Wed Jun 19 2024

This afternoon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 3 seconds and se 1 foot at 10 seconds.

Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 3 seconds and se 1 foot at 10 seconds.

Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: sw 1 foot at 3 seconds and se 1 foot at 9 seconds.

Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: sw 1 foot at 3 seconds and se 1 foot at 9 seconds. A chance of showers.

Fri and Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: W 1 foot at 2 seconds and se 1 foot at 9 seconds. A chance of showers.

Sat and Sat night - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming s. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft. Wave detail: E 1 foot at 4 seconds, becoming se 1 foot at 2 seconds and E 1 foot at 5 seconds. A chance of showers.

Sun and Sun night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 1003 Am Edt Wed Jun 19 2024

Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - High pres remains anchored over the far eastern outer waters through the end of the workweek. This will maintain ssw wind gusts 20-25 knots on most waters through Thursday, turning northeast Friday and Saturday. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening from Thursday through Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Dennis, MA
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Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 191502 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1102 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dangerous heat and humidity continues through Thursday, although not as hot along the south coast, where winds off the cooler ocean will provide some relief. The heat peaks on Thursday when record highs are possible, before more seasonable temperatures and not as humid weather returns later Friday into Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and evening, from Thursday thru Monday, however many hours of dry weather are expected. Heat and humidity looks to return Sunday and Monday, although not as hot as the current heat.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
1100 AM Update:

Key Points:

* Hot and humid weather leading to high heat indices away from the southern coastline, excessive to those with prolonged exposure.

* Low chance for a t-storm north of the Mass Pike no sooner than 2 PM til sundown. Any storm which develops will be capable of frequent lightning, downpours and localized gusty winds, but many stay dry.

Main story continues to be the hazy, hot and humid weather.
Current temps were in the upper 70s to the low 80s with SW winds around 5-10 mph. The breezes will help somewhat, but offsetting that will be rising dewpoints leading to increasing mugginess.
Currently dewpoints are in the mid 60s, but dewpoints in the lower 70s are common in NY and those will be advecting in this afternoon. So by this afternoon it will feel closer to a sauna, and heat indices in the mid 90s to lower 100s should be pretty common away from the South Coast, Cape and Islands. No changes to heat headlines with this update. We continue to encourage folks practice recommended heat-related precautions including staying in cooler/air conditioned rooms or buildings, staying hydrated, and checking in on pets/animals and the elderly.

Although the vast majority of the time today is dry, I did opt for a 15% to no more than 20% chance for a t-storm for locations north of the Mass Pike. While isolated strong storms are already underway in the Adirondacks into the western shore of Lake Champlain, that activity should pass well to our north.
Some of the latest guidance shows the upper ridge shifting just enough southward to at least create a window of opportunity for isolated storms. The bigger issue is that there isn't much to trigger storms, other than a progged subtle windshift that is basically on the mesoscale level. Mixed-layer CAPE values are progged to be in the 2500 J/kg range north of the Mass Pike per SPC's mesoanalysis by 20z and flow is weak; steeper low level lapse rates would also favor large downdraft CAPE values as well. I suspect storm coverage to be no more than isolated (a couple?). If we do get an isolated storm to develop, it could become strong with frequent lightning and downpours along with localized wind gusts/outflows given the likely high downdraft CAPE. Higher-res guidance offers mixed opinions about this but it's in these weakly forced, pulse- storm settings where higher resolution guidance often struggles so view this as more of a possible outcome. I can't see any more than a couple storms today if there's enough lifting to develop them at all, and much of the area looks dry.

Previous discussion:

Wednesday...

Subtropical ridge continues to build northeast into New England and peaks at around 598 dam this afternoon, slightly stronger than Tuesday. Thus, more of a capped environment should support a mainly dry forecast. Can't rule out an isolated, brief shower/t-storm over across northern MA on the periphery of the ridge. Otherwise, most locations remain dry today along with mostly sunny conditions. Some late day cloudiness across northern MA in response to convection just across the border in NY/VT and NH.

Airmass continues to warm with 850 mb temps rising another deg or two from Tuesday, up to +19C to +20C by late Wed. 925 mb temps also rise to +24C to +26C, highest values across northern MA. This will support a swath of highs of 92 to 97 across northern portions of CT/RI/MA, hottest across northern MA. These air temps combined with dew pts in the low 70s will yield heat indices ranging from 95 to 104, hottest values in the Merrimack Valley of northeast MA. Hence, heat headlines remain in effect.

Not as hot along/near the south coast, in response to SSW winds streaming across cooler SSTs in the low to mid 60s. This will yield highs in the 80s, except 70s along the immediate coast including Cape Cod and the Islands.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
345 AM update...

* Another warm and humid night * Heat & humidity peak Thu with highs 93-98, not as hot south coast * T-storms possible northern CT/RI/MA Thursday

Tonight...

No change in airmass, thus not much relief with lows only 65-70.
Remaining humid with dew pts in the 60s. Any early evening isolated shower/t-storm along or near the MA/VT-NH border will fizzle quickly with sunset given lack of deep layer shear and poor mid level lapse rates. Could have some patchy late night/early morning fog along the south coast.

Thursday...

Subtropical ridge remains over the region with temps aloft warming a few more degs, with much of northern MA having 925 mb temps warm to about +26C. This will support highs in the mid to upper 90s with hottest values across northern portions of CT/RI/MA, including metro Boston. These air temps will combine with dew pts in the low 70s to yield heat indices between 95 and 104, highest values once again over northern CT/RI/MA. Mostly sunny conditions will continue, except during the afternoon becoming partly cloudy with possibly convection across northern MA. Surface winds becoming more WSW as ridge becomes elongated west to east.

As northern stream trough traverses Ontario and Quebec, some weak height falls occur on the northern periphery of the tropical ridge, opening the door for afternoon convection across NY/VT/NH, possibly spilling into northern MA. Low risk for a few strong storms especially across northern MA with up to 2000 j/kg of SB CAPE combined with some weak forcing for ascent and eroding cap on northern periphery of ridge over northern MA. Also, localized heavy rain threat with PWATs up to 2 inches and deep unidirectional westerly flow, promoting backbuilding/training cells. HRRR PMM field has 10% probability of 3 inches of rain in 3 hours across northern portions of CT/RI/MA. Given the lack of deep layer shear and poor mid level lapse rates, thinking the threat of heavy rain is greater than the risk for severe storms. Also, lack of shear and instability aloft will support afternoon convection weakening with sunset and cooling blyr.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
345 AM update...

* Some relief from the heat on Friday and Saturday, though heat headlines may still be necessary for portions of Connecticut on Friday.

* Shower/Thunderstorm chances each afternoon/evening through Sunday, with the best chance across CT.

* Stronger shortwave/cold front may bring more widespread precipitation/thunderstorm chances late Sunday night and Monday

Strong ridging begins to collapse late week which will allow a cold front to drop south across southern New England during the day on Friday. While signals of this began to crop up last evening, confidence continues to increase with significant model consensus between the global and long ranged hi-res (NAM12km) guidance, in more tolerable temperatures developing across the region. There does remain uncertainty in how far south and west the front will progress, which will likely lead to a significant temperature gradient Friday afternoon across the region, with portions of the CT River Valley making (yet another) run at 90F and temps across eastern MA cooling into the 70s thanks to onshore flow behind the front. Given growing confidence in cooler conditions, heat headlines have been dropped away from the CT River Valley on Friday.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the "ridge", well collapsing ridge, axis Friday afternoon, which is currently expected to be concentrated across central Connecticut.
Low level lapse rates around 8C/km combined with MUCAPE values approaching 2200J/kg will drive storm development, but with really subpar mid level lapse rates (around 5C/km) and the best bulk shear flip-flopped from the greatest instability (bulk shear of less than 20kt across CT Friday afternoon/evening, but higher across eastern MA where CAPE is much lower), we'll likely see some pulsey sub severe storms that could generate a heavy downpours given a "skinny CAPE" and PWATs exceeding 2". Storms will struggle to survive past ~02Z, however, as instability completely collapses after sunset.
It's sort of a "copy paste" scenario for Saturday with little change in the airmass. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are again possible across the region, though would hedge fewer localities see rain Saturday afternoon compared to Friday as both temperatures and dewpoints around 5F cooler.

Showers/thunderstorms look to grow in coverage Sunday afternoon and evening as robust shortwave begins to approach from the Great Lakes region. Will likely see several rounds of precipitation between Sunday afternoon and Monday evening before trailing cold front finally moves eastward of the region by late Monday/early Tuesday.
The first round of storms Sunday afternoon will again struggle to persist past sundown as instability is lost. Beyond Monday, it appears that another prolonged period of warm and dry conditions develops for next week.

AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

15z TAF Update:

Today: High confidence.

Mainly VFR. Low chance (<20%) of slow-moving TSRA at BED and ORH north and west 19-23z which could become strong, but majority of time is dry. SW winds around 10 kt today with a low chance of a seabreeze at BOS.

Wednesday Night... High confidence.

VFR. SW winds 10-15 kts along with dry weather.

Thursday...moderate confidence.

High confidence for VFR and WSW winds. Some uncertainty on areal coverage and intensity of any afternoon T-storms. Greatest risk across northern CT/RI/MA.

KBOS TAF... High confidence in TAF, lower confidence on sea- breeze. VFR; SW winds should generally prevail around 10-13 kt. sea breeze is possible 16-19z but confidence on development and its persistence is low; maintained TEMPO for sea-breeze.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR. Low chance (< 15%) of a rogue TSRA ~19-22z but odds favor dry conditions.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Isolated SHRA.

Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA.

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

345 AM update...

Through Thursday...High confidence.

High pressure just offshore provides fairly tranquil boating weather this period. Low risk of an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon across the northern MA waters. Otherwise, patchy fog may lower vsby 1-3 miles tonight along the southern coastal waters. Thu, quiet except across the northern MA waters where a few thunderstorms may traverse the waters toward the NH border.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Patchy fog.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Friday through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

CLIMATE
All Time June High Temperature Record (Daily)

BOS - 100 F (06/06/1925, 06/26/1952 and 06/30/2021)
BDL - 100 F (06/26/1952, 06/30/1964)
PVD - 98 F (06/25/1943, 06/15/1945 and 06/30/1945)
ORH - 98 F (06/26/1952)

Most recent day of 100 F (or greater)

BOS - 100 F (07/24/2022)
BDL - 100 F (07/21/2019)
PVD - 100 F (07/28/2020)
ORH - 102 F (07/04/1911)*

* For ORH this is the only 100+ degree day in its period of record.

Daily High Temperature Records...

June 18th

BOS - 94 F (1907 and 1929)
BDL - 95 F (1957 and 1994)
PVD - 94 F (1929)
ORH - 93 F (1907 and 1929)

June 19th

BOS - 96 F (1923)
BDL - 95 F (1995)
PVD - 94 F (1923)
ORH - 93 F (1923)

June 20th

BOS - 98 F (1953)
BDL - 97 F (2012)
PVD - 95 F (1941)
ORH - 93 F (1953)

June 21st

BOS - 96 F (2012)
BDL - 96 F (1953 and 2012)
PVD - 96 F (1941)
ORH - 91 F (Multi-Years)

Daily Warmest Low Temperatures Records...

June 18th

BOS - 72 F (1929)
BDL - 70 F (1905)
PVD - 72 F (1929)
ORH - 69 F (1905 and 1994)

June 19th

BOS - 73 F (1995)
BDL - 72 F (1929)
PVD - 70 F (1995)
ORH - 72 F (1929)

June 20th

BOS - 78 F (1931)
BDL - 74 F (1931)
PVD - 74 F (1931)
ORH - 72 F (1931)

June 21st

BOS - 80 F (2012)
BDL - 73 F (1923 and 2012)
PVD - 75 F (2012)
ORH - 74 F (1923 and 2012)

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for CTZ002>004.
Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ002-003.
MA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for MAZ008>011.
Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ005>007- 010>015.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for MAZ002>007-012>019- 026.
RI...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for RIZ001>005.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
44090 11 mi53 min 64°F2 ft
CHTM3 12 mi53 min 88°F 30.34
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 19 mi43 minSW 14G16 70°F 70°F30.3367°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 31 mi73 min 63°F2 ft
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 31 mi53 min 70°F 69°F30.35
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 32 mi53 minWSW 11G15 74°F 70°F30.37
NBGM3 40 mi53 minSW 12G15 79°F 30.35
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 49 mi43 minS 1.9G3.9 71°F 65°F30.2967°F


Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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Wind History graph: HYA
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Tide / Current for South Yarmouth, Bass River, Nantucket Sound, Massachusetts
   
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South Yarmouth
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Wed -- 02:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 05:43 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:57 AM EDT     2.53 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:48 PM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

South Yarmouth, Bass River, Nantucket Sound, Massachusetts, Tide feet
12
am
2.8
1
am
2.5
2
am
2
3
am
1.4
4
am
0.8
5
am
0.3
6
am
0.2
7
am
0.5
8
am
0.9
9
am
1.4
10
am
2
11
am
2.4
12
pm
2.5
1
pm
2.4
2
pm
2
3
pm
1.5
4
pm
1
5
pm
0.6
6
pm
0.4
7
pm
0.7
8
pm
1.2
9
pm
1.7
10
pm
2.3
11
pm
2.8


Tide / Current for Pollock Rip Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Pollock Rip Channel
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Wed -- 01:48 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 05:22 AM EDT     1.87 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:29 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:08 AM EDT     -1.43 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 02:11 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:36 PM EDT     1.67 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:35 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:21 PM EDT     -1.61 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Pollock Rip Channel, Massachusetts Current, knots
12
am
-1.3
1
am
-0.7
2
am
0.2
3
am
1
4
am
1.6
5
am
1.8
6
am
1.8
7
am
1.3
8
am
0.5
9
am
-0.5
10
am
-1.2
11
am
-1.4
12
pm
-1.3
1
pm
-0.9
2
pm
-0.2
3
pm
0.6
4
pm
1.3
5
pm
1.6
6
pm
1.6
7
pm
1.3
8
pm
0.6
9
pm
-0.4
10
pm
-1.2
11
pm
-1.6


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Boston, MA,




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