Thursday, January28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Justice, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 5:03PM Thursday January 28, 2021 1:40 AM CST (07:40 UTC) Moonrise 5:56PMMoonset 8:21AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ742 Expires:202101281000;;605220 Fzus53 Klot 280340 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 940 Pm Cst Wed Jan 27 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz740>742-281000- Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 940 Pm Cst Wed Jan 27 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 3 am cst Thursday...
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Freezing spray. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Thursday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt. Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 kt. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft or less after midnight.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southeast 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 ft or less building to 1 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
LMZ742


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Justice, IL
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location: 41.75, -87.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 280452 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1052 PM CST Wed Jan 27 2021

SHORT TERM. 234 PM CST

Through Thursday night .

The weather challenge for today has been the narrow band of lake effect snow (LES) pushing into Chicago. North to northeasterly winds combined with a relatively warm lake and cold land surfaces created a weak land breeze mechanism/convergence over the lake, which created and continues to create an area of light snow/snow showers. Radar echos indicate decent (30 dBZ) convective snow showers over the lake, but strengths decrease rapidly over land. Dynamics were never too great for LES, with equilibrium levels around 5000 ft, below the dendritic growth zone (DGZ). Still this band continues to produce flurries and occasional light snow showers, but little impact is anticipated. The snow band's path will shift further east towards the Indiana shores as winds slowly back from northeast to north- northwest this afternoon and overnight, with a chance of light snow showers remaining throughout the night for Lake and Porter Counties, Indiana.

An upper level low is presently moving south of us, but associated moisture and precipitation is remaining south of our CWA, or just scraping along the southern border, producing some light snow flurries in the far south. The majority of weather associated with this system should remain south of us as it moves off to the east.

Skies are starting to clear towards the northwest with passage of the upper level trough and surface high pressure moving in. Decreased sky cover, in-place cold temperatures, continued northerly flow and cold air advection, and snow cover is setting up for very low temperatures Thursday morning, with negative temperatures in the northwestern Illinois counties, and mid to low teens towards northwest Indiana. Skies will remain mostly clear on Thursday, but continued northerly flow and low temperatures will make it difficult to climb above freezing on Thursday, with highs remaining in the lower to upper 20s. The high pressure ridge will shift over and to the east of our region Thursday overnight, switching our winds to a more southeasterly direction Thursday evening, but even with this southerly flow and weak warm air advection, we can expect another cold morning Friday, with temperatures in the single digits up to the mid teens. But the sun shine and southerly flow will chisel away at the cold a bit, with highs near 30, and even climbing to or above freezing for southerly counties.

BKL

LONG TERM. 259 PM CST

Friday through Wednesday .

The main focus of interest during the period revolves around the evolution of the upper level disturbance off the British Columbia coast into this weekend. Forecast guidance/ensembles all continue to show below average spread with this feature as sets up over the Desert Southwest on Friday, then ejects eastward towards the Central Mississippi Valley by Saturday evening. As such, current indications continue to support the likelihood of a period of wintry weather across the area from late Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

It appears this storm system may be able to tap into some really good moisture, as it looks to induce stout southerly low-level flow right out of the western Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. This in turn may act to support a large area of moderate to heavier precipitation in the warm air advection wing just ahead of the approaching storm system Saturday into Saturday night. While confidence on the start time of this precipitation locally still remains a bit on the low side, current indications suggest a high probability that it will onset sometime late Saturday afternoon or early evening. Precipitation type looks to be mainly in the form of snow for much of far northern IL and northwestern IN. However, precipitation type looks to become more challenging the farther south towards central IL and IN you get.

The potently exists for a period of moderate to even heavy wet snowfall over much of the area Saturday night as strong isentropic upglide looks to set up in association with the approaching storm systems warm conveyor belt. This period will need to be watched. There continues to be good ensemble agreement that we could see around a half inch of liquid equivalence precipitation, most of which could fall as snow over northern IL Saturday night. Periods of light snow also look favorable to continue on Sunday on the back side of the surface low, where some mid-level deformation would be favored as the mid-level impulse shifts overhead.

All in all this could be a decent snow maker for the area. The primary uncertain at this time deals with how far northward the warmer air will get, and hence where exactly the rain-to-snow line sets up. This transition could occur over, or near my southern counties. In addition, there remains uncertainties in the extent of the snowfall potential on Sunday along the back side of the surface low. By this time the surface low looks to become occluded and in a weakening phase. How this plays out could impact snowfall amounts, but the potential is there to support another significant snow event for the area.

Once this system moves out of the area Sunday night it appears we will be in for a few day period of quieter weather as surface high pressure looks to set up overhead. However, another potential period of more active weather could return by the later half of next week.

KJB

AVIATION. For the 06Z TAFs .

Only forecast concern is brief mvfr cigs for the next few hours. A patch of mvfr cigs is moving south across far northeast IL and will then move into northwest IN over the next few hours. Once this area of low clouds clears the terminals . generally skc is expected until some mid level clouds may arrive later Thursday.

Northwest winds will remain generally under 10kts tonight and slowly diminish Thursday as high pressure moves across the area. Winds will become light and variable or light southeast by early evening across northwest IL and eventually across the Chicago terminals by late Thursday evening or early Friday morning. cms

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory . IN nearshore waters until 9 AM Thursday.

Small Craft Advisory . IL nearshore waters until 3 AM Thursday.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CNII2 14 mi26 min NW 14 G 16 20°F 11°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 16 mi53 min W 5.1 G 8.9 1032.3 hPa
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 18 mi41 min NW 18 G 19 20°F 14°F
FSTI2 19 mi101 min 17°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 37 mi61 min NW 8.9 G 12 26°F 1032.2 hPa
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 42 mi101 min NNW 12 G 15 15°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 49 mi41 min ENE 11 G 12 25°F 20°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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G12
NE6
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NE15
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G24
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G26
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL6 mi48 minNNW 1010.00 miA Few Clouds16°F5°F62%1035.3 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL16 mi50 minNW 910.00 miA Few Clouds14°F5°F67%1034.4 hPa
Lewis University Airport, IL17 mi66 minNNW 810.00 miFair11°F7°F81%1033.9 hPa
Lansing Municipal Airport, IL22 mi66 minNW 610.00 miFair15°F8°F72%1033.5 hPa
Gary Regional Airport, IN24 mi66 minW 610.00 miFair15°F9°F77%1033.2 hPa
Joliet Regional Airport, IL24 mi66 minN 010.00 miFair13°F7°F76%1034.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMDW

Wind History from MDW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW12N10N10N11NW11N12N10N9NE9NE8N8N10N8N9N11N8N9N11N11N13
G18
N12NW9NW8NW10
1 day agoE14NE17
G25
NE14
G23
NE16NE16
G21
NE16
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NE15
G24
NE14
G22
NE14N16
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N17N13N15N12NW9
2 days agoNW6N7N11N6N8N8N6NE7E10E7E12
G19
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G21
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G22
NE17
G23
E15
G23
E15
G26
NE18
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NE15NE18
G27
E20
G28
--E15
G25
E12NE15
G25

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.