Sunday, May31, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Justice, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:17AMSunset 8:20PM Sunday May 31, 2020 10:40 AM CDT (15:40 UTC) Moonrise 2:18PMMoonset 2:29AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ742 Expires:202005312130;;039112 Fzus53 Klot 311405 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 905 Am Cdt Sun May 31 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz740>742-312130- Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 905 Am Cdt Sun May 31 2020
Rest of today..East winds 10 to 15 kt. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft by early afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast winds around 10 kt becoming south after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 ft or less.
Monday..South winds 15 to 25 kt. A chance of sprinkles in the morning, then slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Monday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft after midnight. A small craft advisory may be needed.
LMZ742


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Justice, IL
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location: 41.75, -87.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 311102 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 602 AM CDT Sun May 31 2020

SHORT TERM. 310 AM CDT

Through Monday Night .

A fairly tranquil handoff during these next 24 hours from the wettest May on record for Chicago to June and meteorological summer. Monday may see spotty showers with an outside chance of a couple storms late in the day and at night as we bring quite a warm air mass into the area going into Tuesday.

Sprawling Canadian high pressure of 1028 mb across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes will command our weather today. Some cirrus will gradually spread in during the afternoon but should be thin prior to sundown. A lake breeze with a classic spread out in all directions will unfold by early afternoon keeping lake adjacent counties mainly in the 60s with primarily lower 70s inland. These readings are a few to several degrees below normal.

A broad upper ridge that is fairly anomalous for early meteorological summer will be further building across a large part of the U.S. on Monday. A zone of more focused warm advection will pass over the Great Lakes region during that time, assisted by a strong short wave set to track eastward well north of here from Minnesota to the U.P. of Michigan. The southern extension of this though will tap into a fairly strong Plains low-level jet with moisture return aloft, and expect a mostly cloudy sky for Monday morning and early afternoon with this. With fairly inherent dry near-surface air, do think that any spotty showers may turn out to just be virga, especially south of I-88. As the afternoon progresses, elevated steep lapse rates from the incoming elevated mixed layer (EML) will move over the area but forcing appears to diminish with a sizable cap advected in. The exception for the limited focus is gradual confluence in the low-level jet layer into Monday evening and overnight, especially eastern CWA, and a few longer range convection allowing models (CAMs) do spark a couple storms. There would probably be a conditional risk of severe with those but the chance of development right now is well on the lower side.

Otherwise Monday should see breezy southerly winds, especially if the 5-10kft clouds depart after midday. Some gusts to 30 mph appear possible. Clearing time will influence how warm temperatures get and 80 is possible if earlier than forecast especially in north central Illinois. Monday night will be a mild one with temperatures slow to fall on continued southwest winds.

MTF

LONG TERM. 310 AM CDT

Tuesday through Saturday .

The midweek period becomes more unsettled and starts with early season heat on Tuesday with increasing confidence in highs being in the 90s. Chicago has a fair chance of reaching their record high for the date of June 2 (92, 1944), which actually is the lowest record high in June and all of meteorological summer.

The upper ridge will start to get flattened on Tuesday as a whole but not over northern Illinois and northwest Indiana, with still building heights during the day. The 850-925 mb thermal ridge will lean over and be directly pointed into the area and in the absence of cloud cover and precipitation this is a really good setup for heat. The 00Z ECMWF is a couple degrees C warmer than the GFS at 850 mb, with 22C over NC IL. The NAM is in the middle. Looking back at reanalysis data for early June as well as observed sounding climatology from DVN and ILX, the EC and NAM solutions would place us in the upper percentile for 850 mb temperatures during very early June. Have increased blend- provided guidance highs for Tuesday solidly into the 91-93 range and cannot rule out a couple degrees on top of that. Global guidance seems high on their greater than 70 dew points on Tuesday. Have tempered that some. Apparent temperatures still are very noteworthy though for this early, presently forecast 93-98. Confidence in this is medium-high, as the typical ways to botch this up (convection and associated outflows, clouds) seem quite limited right now.

Heading into Tuesday night and Wednesday the chances for thunderstorms will be on the increase. A strong 90+ kt upper jet streak riding atop the upper ridge on Tuesday night into early Wednesday looks to support organized convection to the northwest of the area Tuesday evening with potential for MCS development in this brief but nonetheless "ring of fire" setup. Convection would likely have its best chance into our area overnight Tuesday night into early Wednesday, and then again with any potential redevelopment Wednesday afternoon on front/outflow composite boundary(ies). There would be some severe weather and heavy rain potential with these two periods as forecast right now, given the solution shear and instability and pattern recognition. Obviously time for things to change especially with placement and track of any organized convection. The temperatures on Wednesday have potential to be greatly influenced by convection though it still will be mild and humid.

Going into late week, the model consensus pushes the boundary south of the area on Thursday. Individual global guidance has it nudging back closer or into the area sometime Thursday night - Saturday. This results in chances for thunderstorms and tough to discriminate details at this distance. Temperatures look to stay above normal even on Thursday and inch upward into the following week.

MTF

AVIATION. For the 12Z TAFs .

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

Light winds will continue today and tonight. An early afternoon lake breeze will enhance easterly winds for ORD, MDW, and GYY before gradually diminishing again in the evening.

Expect mostly clear skies with high clouds moving in this evening.

Petr

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . None.

Visit us at weather.gov/chicago

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CNII2 14 mi26 min ENE 5.1 G 9.9 54°F 38°F
JAKI2 14 mi101 min E 6 G 8.9 54°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 16 mi53 min NE 8 G 9.9 53°F 1028.4 hPa38°F
OKSI2 16 mi101 min E 2.9 G 5.1 54°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 18 mi41 min E 8 G 8.9 52°F 40°F
45174 28 mi31 min ESE 5.8 G 9.7 55°F3 ft1030.7 hPa
45186 43 mi41 min N 3.9 G 7.8 53°F 52°F2 ft
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 49 mi41 min NNE 7 G 8 52°F 38°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL6 mi48 minE 910.00 miA Few Clouds58°F36°F44%1028.8 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL16 mi50 minESE 1010.00 miA Few Clouds59°F37°F44%1028.7 hPa
Lewis University Airport, IL17 mi66 minE 610.00 miFair60°F44°F57%1028.4 hPa
Lansing Municipal Airport, IL22 mi46 minno data10.00 miFair58°F36°F45%1029.1 hPa
Gary Regional Airport, IN24 mi56 minNE 710.00 miClear57°F0°F%1029.1 hPa
Joliet Regional Airport, IL24 mi66 minNE 710.00 miFair61°F44°F55%1028.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMDW

Wind History from MDW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5NW10NW94E10NE12E11E9E8E10NE12E10E5NE6NE6NE8NE8NE7NE11NE9E10E10E10E9
1 day agoW11W12
G18
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NW9NW8NW5NW6NW5NW5NW5NW5NW4NW5N7N4NW5NW4
2 days agoCalmSW7SW10SW11
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SW12NW12N9NE7N4NE5NE54N15
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NE9NE3NE4S3S5W6SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.