Wednesday, July17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Orleans, MA

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:19AMSunset 8:14PM Wednesday July 17, 2019 4:41 AM EDT (08:41 UTC) Moonrise 8:58PMMoonset 5:49AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ254 Coastal Waters From Provincetown Ma To Chatham Ma To Nantucket Ma Out 20 Nm- 406 Am Edt Wed Jul 17 2019
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers with isolated tstms this afternoon. Some tstms may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Some tstms may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..N winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 406 Am Edt Wed Jul 17 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres will shift E of the waters today, while the remnants of barry spread across the waters late today through midday Thu. High pres builds across northern new england on Thu producing e-ne winds across the waters. The high will move E across nova scotia Thu night. South to southwest winds will bring a build up of heat and humidity Fri and Sat. A cold front approaches on Sunday, bringing a chance for showers and Thunderstorms. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orleans CDP, MA
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location: 41.77, -69.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 170735
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
335 am edt Wed jul 17 2019

Synopsis
An approaching cold front coupled with the remnants of barry will
bring periods of showers and scattered thunderstorms today into
Thursday along with locally heavy rainfall. Hot and humid
conditions settle in for Friday through Sunday with heat
related headlines likely. A cold front sweeps through the region
Monday with scattered showers and thunderstorm. High pressure
then builds over new england Tuesday bringing seasonable
temperatures and much lower humidity.

Near term until 6 am this morning
215 am update...

other than patchy showers that have pushed across central and
western areas since around 03z, mainly dry conditions continue
across most of the region early this morning. Noting only a few
spots of lightning pulses and a few c g lightning strikes from
sw of ksyr through to N central and W pa at 06z.

The warm front has pushed to E mass as seen on the 03z wpc
surface analysis, with s-sw winds around 10 kt, except kbid
reported a gust up to 18 kt at 06z. SW winds in place across
the remaining islands, allowing the fog that was across kack and
briefly into kcqx to push offshore.

Will start to see showers becoming a bit more numerous across n
central and W mass toward daybreak, though the threat for
thunder is low at this point.

Previous discussion...

conditions remain mainly dry across the region at 03z. Noting
the thunderstorm activity across the mid hudson valley has
dissipated over the last hour or so as it slowly pushed E into
the northern berkshires and SW vt. A few showers may push into
nw mass over the next couple of hours.

The warm front as slowly progressed E into the ct valley at 00z.

Noting most of the instability remains across E ny into
berkshire county, with mlcapes close to 500 j kg, but lowers as
it extends further E across the region from 100-200 j kg.

Even as the ridge has pushed into mass bay and the western gulf
of maine, the weak trough remains in the hudson valley. This
appears to be enough to hold onto the subsidence across the
region to allow the convection to continue to weaken as it
shifts into W mass. A weak s-sw wind continues across areas
away from the immediate coast.

Feel this trend will continue into the early morning hours and,
with the lack of daytime heating destabilization, any organized
convection should be limited through the remainder of the night.

Weak trough may be focus of a few more showers around or after
06z as it slowly shifts e. However, short range models continue
signal that only scattered activity pushes into N central into
w mass with the higher pops pushing NE into central new england.

Still some instability associated with this, so kept isolated
thunder mentioned.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Thursday
* a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible this
afternoon evening
* heavy rainfall localized flooding possible this afternoon
through night
today and tonight...

a rather complex setup today into tonight as an approaching
cold front interacts with the remnants of barry. The main
concerns will be the threat for a few strong to severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, along with a heavy
rain localized flood threat Wed afternoon continuing through
Wednesday night. We will discuss this in greater depth below as
this will be somewhat of a two part event.

The first part will be the development of scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. This will be the
result of a cold front dropping south into a very humid airmass
with 70+ dewpoints. SPC sref indications high probabilities of
surface capes exceeding 1000 j kg and 30 to 50 percent probs for
values greater than 2000 j kg. The big limiting factor though
will be weak mid level lapse rates, limiting updraft strength
and potency. However, given the high dewpoints in place and 0 to
6 km shear increasing to between 30 and 40 knots will result in
the risk for a few strong to severe thunderstorms. The main
threat will be localized strong to damaging wind gusts and
perhaps a wet microburst. In addition, pwats over 2 inches will
support torrential rainfall and a localized flood threat. High
resolution model guidance is also supporting this risk,
indicating the potential for some 2-5 km updraft helicity and
for very localized 1-2 inch per hour rainfall rates.

So in a nutshell... A widespread severe weather outbreak is not
expected this afternoon and evening. However, a few strong to
severe thunderstorms are certainly possible with the main threat
being localized strong to damaging wind gusts. Whether a few
severe thunderstorms develop will be determined by timing and
also amount of solar insolation. Heavy rain may also result in a
localized flood threat.

High temperatures today should reach the upper 80s to near 90
in many locations. This combined with high dewpoints will result
in uncomfortable heat index values in the lower to middle 90s.

While the threat for any strong to severe thunderstorms will
diminish later this evening, pockets of heavy rainfall and
localized flooding will continue to be a concern. The remnants
of barry coupled with a boundary in the vicinity and pwats of 2
inches or greater will be the main players. Appears right now
that the best forcing and highest pwats will setup near and
especially south of the ma turnpike, which is the area we are
most concerned with right now.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Big picture...

zonal flow across the northern half of the usa while subtropical
high pressure controls the southern half. Remnants of barry in the
zonal flow will move east of southern new england by Friday. Early
next week the subtropical high builds north over the western usa,
while a trough digs over the northeast usa.

Normal 500-mb heights for mid july are 580 to 582 dm. Forecast
heights build to 591 dm over the weekend, then trend to normal or a
little lower early next week as the upper trough digs in. From this,
we expect above-normal temperatures Friday-Saturday-Sunday, then
expect warmer than normal temperatures through the weekend, then a
trend to near normal temperatures early next week.

General agreement among the model mass and thermal fields through
the weekend. The fields early next week show a similar general
pattern with small differences. Overall forecast confidence is
moderate-high, but confidence in timing of the cold fronts Sunday-
Monday is low-moderate.

Concerns...

Thursday night and Friday...

remnants of barry pass south of southern new england Thursday night.

Winds are initially from the east and northeast, then turn from the
north after the remnants move past. The east flow is a wet pattern
is a wet pattern, especially in eastern ma and potentially in
central ma and ri. Expect continued showers and scattered
thunderstorms the first half of the night, diminishing to no
precipitation in western ma and northern ct after midnight. Pw
values remain at 2 inches or more across ri and eastern ma the first
half of the night, then diminish overnight. This means continued
potential for downpours in this area through midnight, then
diminishing showers after midnight.

Cross sections show lingering low-level moisture for clouds over all
of the region Friday morning. So expect clouds to start Friday, and
possibly some drizzle or widely scattered showers in coastal ma
Friday morning. But expect drying at cloud-level and warming temps
aloft suppressing further shower development... 700 mb temps climb
above 10c... And so we should see clearing during the day. With dew
points in the 60s, expect min temps Thursday night in the 60s.

Increasing Sun Friday will allow mixing to 850 mb, tapping
temperatures of 18-20c which would support MAX sfc temps of upper
80s to mid 90s. We bumped guidance values up 3-5f to line up this
these values. The temperatures and humidity will generate heat
index values in the 90s.

Friday night through Sunday...

high pressure builds surface and aloft, cresting over southern new
england Saturday and then pulling south on Sunday. Temps at 700 mb
crest about 13c Saturday, which should suppress anything that tries
to form a shower. Pw values fluctuate, but stay close to 2 inches
through the weekend. So the airmass will have a good supply of
moisture in it and surface dew points 70f to 75f. With dew points at
that level, expect overnight min temps Friday night and Saturday
night will be in the 70s to near 80, warm and muggy both nights.

Mixing to 850 mb will tap temperatures of 21-23c, supporting MAX sfc
temps of 95-100f. Heat index values will be above 100f most places
and above 105f in some inland areas.

Sunday starts quite warm aloft, but with the relaxing ridge we
should see temps aloft lowering with time. Temps at 700 mb start the
day above 10c, but lower just below by late in the day. This heat
dome should suppress convection for at least the first half of the
day. The question is whether the heat aloft diminishes enough to
allow showers tstms later in the day. Best chance for this would be
across the northern half of massachusetts. We have chance pops in
this northern area during the afternoon evening. Temps at 850 mb are
forecast at 20-22c, which translates to another day well into the
90s at the surface. This brings the heat index to 95-100, similar to
Friday.

Monday-Tuesday...

cold front sweeps south from canada Monday, with potential for
showers tstms. Pw values linger between 1.5 and 2 inches until the
front moves through, showing potential for downpours. High
pressure then moves in behind the front Tuesday, bringing rain-
free and less humid air.

Aviation 08z Wednesday through Sunday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ... Moderate confidence.

Through 12z...

mainlyVFR. S-sw winds at 5-10 kts, with gusts up to 20 kt
across S coastal terminals. May see patchy MVFR-ifr vsbys in
patchy fog at times along S coastal terminals from about 07z to
11z. Spotty showers across N central and W mass with brief MVFR
conditions.

Today...

sct shra isold tsra developing from n-s during the day, some
that may produce +ra and possibly gusty winds. Ifr-lifr
conditions with any +ra. Lower confidence on exact timing of
impacts. W-sw winds 5-10 kt, gusting up to 20 kt at times along
the S coast. Sct-bkn CIGS becoming ovc late.

Tonight...

sct-lkly shra chc tsra through most of the night. Continued +ra
threat with ifr-lifr conditions. W-sw winds 10 kt or less,
shifting to e-ne from CAPE ann around 04z S to near outer cape
cod toward daybreak. CIGS lowering to ifr-lifr with local ifr
vsbys in patchy fog along the S coast, CAPE cod and the islands
and possibly into the ct valley around or after midnight. Ovc
conditions overall.

Thursday...

cat shra across NE ct ri S coastal mass Thu morning, with lkly
shra mainly near S of the mass pike along with sct tsra.

Conditions slowly improve, but sct shra isold tsra may linger
inland, with better shot for shra tsra across E mass ri with
onshore flow lingering. E-ne winds around 10 kt with some gusts
up to 20 kt along E coastal terminals.

Kbos terminal...

high TAF confidence this morning, then moderate confidence this
afternoon and tonight. May see a few tsra this afternoon and
evening, along with possible +ra and gusty winds.

Kbdl terminal...

high TAF confidence this morning, then moderate confidence
this afternoon and tonight. Main concern will be for a few vcts
this afternoon into tonight with possible +ra and gusty winds.

Outlook Thursday night through Sunday ... High confidence.

Thursday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Slight
chance shra.

Friday through Saturday night:VFR.

Sunday:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ... High confidence.

Through today...

high pressure pushes further offshore this morning, along with
an approaching cold front will result in SW winds of 10 to 15
knots with gusts up to 20 knots across the southern waters.

However, both wind gusts and seas should remain below small
craft advisory thresholds. Potential for a few strong
thunderstorms with localized strong winds later today into this
evening, especially across the near shore waters.

Tonight...

a cold front will push S during the night, with SW winds
shifting to e-ne across the eastern waters to outer CAPE cod,
but will remain SW across the southern waters. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms continue, which will be locally heavy at
times. Areas of fog develop, mainly across the southern near
shore waters to E of CAPE cod.

Thursday...

winds gradually shift to e-se across the southern waters during
the day, with e-ne winds 10-15 kt across the eastern waters.

Gusts up to 20 kt Thu morning on the eastern waters. Threat for
showers with locally heavy rainfall, along with a few
thunderstorms continues mainly from about boston harbor
southward, though will start to diminish during the afternoon.

Outlook Thursday night through Sunday ... High confidence.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain
showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt.

Friday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Saturday through Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas
of seas approaching 5 ft.

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt.

Climate
Record highs for Wednesday july 17 are as follows:
bos: 98f in 1977 & 1999
bdl: 97f in 1999
pvd: 97f in 1977 & 1999
orh: 93f in 1900
record highest min temps for Saturday july 20:
bos: 75 in 2016
bdl: 73 in 1975
pvd: 77 in 1983
orh: 72 in 2013
record highs for Saturday july 20:
bos: 99 in 1991
bdl: 100 in 1991
pvd: 101 in 1991
orh: 92 in 1901
record highest min temps for Sunday july 21:
bos: 81 in 1991
bdl: 74 in 1977
pvd: 77 in 1980
orh: 73 in 1991

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Wtb frank
near term... Evt
short term... Frank
long term... Wtb
aviation... Wtb evt
marine... Wtb evt
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 21 mi42 min 72°F1 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 26 mi42 min 12 G 16 74°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 32 mi52 min SSW 12 G 14 72°F 2 ft1013.4 hPa (-0.9)67°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 34 mi117 min WNW 1.9 74°F 1015 hPa73°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 35 mi60 min SW 9.9 G 13 71°F 75°F1015.2 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 42 mi66 min 72°F 73°F1014.7 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA6 mi50 minSW 810.00 miFair74°F72°F94%1014.9 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA19 mi46 minSW 1010.00 miOvercast75°F71°F88%1014.3 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA22 mi46 minSSW 1010.00 miFair72°F70°F94%1013.8 hPa

Wind History from CQX (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW3334NW4NW656NW85354SW4SW3CalmCalmSW4SW3SW3CalmCalmNW3NW3
2 days agoSW7564SW7SW6SW96SW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Nauset Harbor, Cape Cod, Massachusetts
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Nauset Harbor
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:31 AM EDT     6.55 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 05:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:17 AM EDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:09 PM EDT     5.67 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:22 PM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:57 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.46.55.94.93.62.10.6-0.200.92.33.95.25.75.54.83.92.71.40.60.71.62.94.5

Tide / Current Tables for Pollock Rip Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Pollock Rip Channel
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:13 AM EDT     -1.77 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:16 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 05:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:54 AM EDT     2.25 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:56 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:47 PM EDT     -1.64 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:47 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:11 PM EDT     1.85 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:59 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.5-1.8-1.7-1.1-0.30.71.52.12.21.91-0.1-1-1.5-1.6-1.4-0.70.211.61.81.71-0

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (4,6,7,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.