Thursday, February27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Orleans, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 5:29PM Thursday February 27, 2020 9:12 AM EST (14:12 UTC) Moonrise 9:25AMMoonset 10:20PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ254 Coastal Waters From Provincetown Ma To Chatham Ma To Nantucket Ma Out 20 Nm- 716 Am Est Thu Feb 27 2020
.gale warning in effect through Friday evening...
Today..S winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming sw 25 to 30 kt this afternoon. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Rain with a slight chance of tstms this morning, then a slight chance of showers this afternoon. Patchy fog this morning with vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft, except 10 to 15 ft S and E of nantucket.
Fri..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft, except 9 to 14 ft S and E of nantucket.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt, decreasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Sat and Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sun and Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Am Est Thu Feb 27 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A strong cold front sweeps across the waters this morning followed by gale force sw to W winds through Fri. Low pres weakens over the maritimes Sat with high pres building into new eng Sunday. The high moves offshore Mon with a warm front approaching the waters. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orleans CDP, MA
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location: 41.77, -69.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 271224 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 724 AM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. Strong low pressure tracking through New York state will bring a period of moderate to heavy rain which will exit by mid to late morning, followed by windy and dry conditions with falling temperatures this afternoon. As low pressure lifts north into eastern Canada, expect dry but cold and blustery conditions late this week through the weekend. Lake effect snow showers may move across the northern Berkshires at times into the weekend. Large high pressure will build across late Sunday into early Monday, with temperatures moderating close to normal. Unsettled conditions move in from later Monday through mid week with milder temperatures.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

7 AM Update .

Wind directions becoming variable as the center of the lows approach the region early this morning. Noting the winds are backing to light northerly across the CT valley into N central Mass, and veering further S and E over the last hour or so. Also noted some C/G lightning earlier this morning crossing across the southern waters well S of Long Island, but has dissipated as the rain elements shifted N early this morning.

Back edge of the rain has reached Long Island and the S coast of CT into SW RI as seen on the 12Z NE regional 88D radar imagery. Still seeing some heavy rain bands moving across the CT valley as well as parts of E MA and RI, but moving quickly N-NE. This is good agreement with previous forecaster. Have updated to reflect current conditions.

Previous Discussion .

Rather potent mid level shortwave with negative tilt is lifting NE from the mid Atlc coast. Strong forcing for ascent within diffluent upper flow combined with low level convergence at the nose of the low level jet is producing area of moderate to heavy rain. Some convective elements noted given elevated instability above the inversion and can't rule out an isolated t-storm through daybreak. This is a progressive system with cold front already moving into NJ. Rain will exit between 7 am and 10 am from SW to NE as the front sweeps through followed by wind shift to SW. Rain ends in N central CT first, with Cape Ann to Cape Cod the last to see the rain end. Total rainfall of 0.50 to 1 inch expected with locally higher amounts along favored upslope areas along the east slopes of Berkshires and Worcester hills.

As low level jet lifts to the north, it strengthens into the Gulf of Maine and clips Cape Ann around daybreak when a brief surge of 40-50 mph easterly wind gusts are possible. Wind advisory issued for Cape Ann until 9 am.

After the frontal passage and wind shift to SW/W, gusty winds will develop within deepening and well mixed boundary layer. Gusts 30-40 mph expected, but soundings support 40-50 mph gusts over the Cape and especially the Islands. Will continue the wind advisory there.

Expect partly sunny skies to develop this afternoon although there will be BKN CU developing as cold pool aloft acts on low level moisture. A few lake effect snow showers may spill into the Berkshires. High temps will occur this morning, with temps briefly reaching the lower 50s in eastern MA and 40s elsewhere before falling temps this afternoon.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/. Tonight into Friday .

Low pressure in eastern Canada with strong pressure gradient will maintain gusty west winds tonight which will slowly diminish during Fri as gradient relaxes. We extended the wind advisory through tonight for the Islands where gusts 40-50 mph expected to continue. Elsewhere 25-35 mph gusts. Still gusty Fri but diminishing by late in the day.

Expect partly cloudy skies tonight and partly to mostly sunny Friday. Most cloud cover will be over the Berkshires where a few lake effect snow showers are possible at times. In addition, steep low level lapse rates over the ocean with W/SW trajectory may lead to extra clouds and possibly a few flurries/snow showers over Nantucket late tonight into early Fri. Ocean induced Capes around 300 J/kg with delta T approaching 20C so plenty of instability developing over the ocean.

Low temps tonight mostly in the 20s, with highs Fri in the 30s to near 40 in the coastal plain.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Highlights .

* Expect dry conditions but cold temperatures lingering through this weekend as low pressure slowly exits eastern Canada

* Large high pressure builds slowly east Sunday night into early Monday as temperatures return to near normal levels

* Conditions will become unsettled starting late Monday through mid week as weather systems shift across the region in a developing west to southwest mid level steering flow Details .

Friday night through Sunday .

While the low pressure center across eastern Quebec and the St Lawrence Seaway, continue to see a dry but cold westerly flow in place across the region as H85 temps at -15C to -20C linger. West winds will remain gusty Friday night along the coast and across the higher terrain, though should diminish somewhat toward daybreak Saturday.

H5 cutoff low pres across eastern Canada will shift slowly E through Saturday as winds shift to NW, keeping the cold temps in place through the weekend. Expect highs to remain well below normal, by as much as 10 to 15 degrees across the interior on Saturday. Clouds will also linger across central and western areas on Saturday, but should see more sunshine across the region during Sunday as high pressure starts to slowly approach from the W. Will also see winds diminish to around 5 to 10 mph.

Will see quite a bit of sunshine on Sunday as the large high pressure ridge at the surface and aloft moves across NY state and Quebec during the day. High temps will be a few degrees milder, but will still run several degrees below normal. Expect readings to range from the upper 20s to mid 30s across the higher terrain to the mid and upper 30s along the coast.

Monday through Wednesday .

Noting a changing mid level steering flow across the lower 48 taking shape starting early next week. While broad ridging crosses the northeast early Monday, a nearly zonal flow sets up from the Appalachians to the central U.S., while a cutoff mid level low digs off the southern CA coast. As the steering flow evolves through mid week, noting steadily increasing H5 heights across the region, another broad trough digs across the Great Lakes which lingers SW to the cutoff low across NM and W TX late Tue/Tue night.

The northern stream flow remains progressive, so will see another short wave push across the region later Monday through Tuesday. This will bring another shot of moisture across, so will see periods of rain or showers for most areas as temperatures increase to 5 to 10 degrees above normal by around Tuesday. However, the moisture will linger each night, so could see temps fall close to freezing across N central and W Mass. May see some rain and/or snow as this system moves across Mon night, but temps will recover on Tuesday so the precip should change back to rain.

The region remains in the W-SW flow aloft, so may see another system move along toward the northeast late Tuesday or Wednesday. Confidence is rather low, however, as there is quite a bit of model solution spread amongst the 00Z members. At this point, have kept CHC POPs going with mild temperatures for Wednesday.

AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Today . High confidence. IFR-LIFR CIGS and areas of MVFR-IFR VSBYS across central and eastern areas, with MVFR to local IFR CIGS and variable VSBYS from local VFR to mainly MVFR-IFR. Conditions should improve to VFR from 14z to 17z as rain exits from SW to NE. Winds will back to W across western and N central areas, and veer to W by around midday. Post frontal gusts 25-35 kt with highest gusts up to 40-45 kt across the Islands.

Tonight . High confidence. VFR. W/SW gusts 25-35 kt with G40 kt over ACK.

Friday . High confidence. VFR. W gusts 25-30 kt with 35 kt at ACK, diminishing late.

KBOS Terminal . Moderate confidence. Conditions improve to VFR 15-17z as winds shift to W/SW. Gusts to 30 kt.

KBDL Terminal . Moderate confidence. Conditions improve to VFR 14-15z as winds shift to W/SW. Gusts to 30 kt.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/ .

Friday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Saturday through Sunday: VFR. Breezy.

Sunday Night: VFR.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance RA.

MARINE.

Today . Gale warnings for all waters. Easterly winds shift to SW/W by late morning. Gusts 35-45 kt over south coastal waters and with 30-35 kt gusts elsewhere. Rain ending with vsbys rapidly improving by late morning. Rough seas.

Tonight into Friday . Gale force westerly winds continue with 35-40 kt gusts on the open waters. Winds gradually diminish during Fri. Rough seas continue.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/ .

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Sunday through Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . Wind Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for MAZ007. Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MAZ022. Wind Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for MAZ023-024. RI . Wind Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for RIZ008. MARINE . Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ232>235-237-254>256. Gale Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for ANZ230. Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ231-250-251. Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ236.

SYNOPSIS . KJC/EVT NEAR TERM . KJC/EVT SHORT TERM . KJC LONG TERM . EVT AVIATION . KJC/EVT MARINE . KJC/EVT


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 21 mi43 min 40°F2 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 26 mi93 min 3 ft
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 32 mi83 min ESE 23 G 27 44°F 8 ft993.1 hPa (-4.9)44°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 34 mi88 min ESE 4.1 47°F 993 hPa47°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 35 mi55 min SSW 12 G 16 51°F 42°F993.7 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 42 mi55 min 47°F 40°F992.9 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA6 mi21 minSSW 10 G 162.50 miRain Fog/Mist50°F48°F93%993.3 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA19 mi17 minSSW 124.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist50°F46°F89%992.2 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA22 mi17 minSSE 14 G 179.00 miLight Rain47°F46°F100%992.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCQX

Wind History from CQX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5NE8NE5NE7E9NE7NE6NE6NE8E10E9E8E9E10E9E9E12E12E12
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1 day agoS6SW7SW534SW5CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmNE4CalmCalmN3NE3NE3CalmCalm3NE5NE7NE6NE7
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SW7SW6SW7S4SW5SW5SW4SW6SW4SW4SW4SW5SW4SW7SW7SW635S65

Tide / Current Tables for Nauset Harbor, Cape Cod, Massachusetts
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Nauset Harbor
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:58 AM EST     5.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:24 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:26 AM EST     0.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:16 PM EST     6.03 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:45 PM EST     0.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:20 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.35.565.64.63.52.31.20.40.51.32.645.365.853.82.61.50.60.412.1

Tide / Current Tables for Pollock Rip Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Pollock Rip Channel
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:24 AM EST     -1.74 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:32 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:25 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:50 AM EST     1.88 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:59 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:38 PM EST     -1.75 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:46 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:06 PM EST     1.98 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:20 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.3-1.2-1.7-1.7-1.2-0.50.41.31.81.91.61-0-1-1.6-1.7-1.4-0.70.21.11.721.81.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.