Monday, July13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Orleans, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:16AMSunset 8:16PM Monday July 13, 2020 5:00 PM EDT (21:00 UTC) Moonrise 12:32AMMoonset 1:35PM Illumination 40% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ254 Coastal Waters From Provincetown Ma To Chatham Ma To Nantucket Ma Out 20 Nm- 457 Pm Edt Mon Jul 13 2020
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt this evening. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm, decreasing to 1 nm or less after midnight.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat and Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 457 Pm Edt Mon Jul 13 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Small crafts will continue through Tuesday evening for rhode island's coast waters and waters south of block island, martha's vineyard, and nantucket. Additionally, a high surf advisory continues until 8 pm Tuesday. For Tuesday we can expect pop-up afternoon showers or a Thunderstorm. Then high pressure returns Wednesday and Thursday, providing fair weather. Sct'd showers and Thunderstorms return for Friday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orleans CDP, MA
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location: 41.77, -69.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 132044 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 444 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

SYNOPSIS. Showers and thunderstorms diminish this evening followed by another mild and muggy night. Breezy, cooler and less humid conditions on Tuesday with showers and scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. High pressure then brings fair weather for Wednesday and Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms return early Friday and Friday night. High pressure then bring rain-free but very warm weather for Saturday and Sunday. Another cold front may bring a few thunderstorms Monday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/.

430 PM Update .

Thunderstorms coverage diminish into the evening with areas of fog developing along the coastal areas and interior fog-prone areas, especially over areas where rain has fallen. Fog coverage will also hinge on the extent to which boundary layer winds decouple. We also cannot rule out some isolated showers but it should be a mostly dry night for most locations. The Berkshires East Slopes will see the coolest readings with overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s thanks to dew points falling into the upper 50s. As for most of us away from the interior high terrain, another muggy and mild night is in store with lows bottoming out in the mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/.

Tuesday .

* Much cooler day than of late with scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon.

572 Dm closed low slides east over VT/NH, surface low slides offshore into Gulf of Maine. This reinforces onshore flow from the northeast over Eastern MA and RI, and northerly flow over the interior. Lobe of vorticity traversing the area will lead to showers and scattered thunderstorms areawide. Best thunderstorm coverage looks to be in Central MA into Northern RI during the afternoon hours, which is far enough removed from the stabilizing effect of onshore flow and drier air from the cold air advection out in Western MA/CT. However, we have an impressive cold pool aloft with - 12 to -14C at 500mb. This is anomalously cold by mid July standards with only the 10th percentile according to NAEFS Situational Awareness Table. There may be some strong storms particularly over Central MA in the afternoon with CAM guidance showing 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and good low-level lapse rates of up to 7.5C/km. But with dew points falling into the upper 50s to low 60s, not expecting severe weather, in line with SPC having our entire area in the general thunder category. Also expect plenty of diurnal cumulus with the anomalously strong cold air advection for mid-July standards in Southern New England. Overall, expect a considerably cooler day on Tuesday with highs generally in the mid 70s to mid 80s with mixing up to 850mb and 850mb temperatures are between +12 to +14C. People in Western MA/CT would feel particularly refreshing with dew points falling into the upper 50s by the afternoon hours.

Tuesday night .

Showers diminish into the overnight hours and temperatures will be much cooler than of late, with much of interior MA falling into the 50s. Enjoy!

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Big Picture .

Upper low moves offshore Wednesday morning. Upper ridge builds over New England during Wednesday and then moves offshore on Thursday. Shortwave in the Nrn Tier zonal flow crosses on Friday. Another ridge then builds overhead Saturday through next Monday.

Mid-July normals for 500-mb contours are around 580 Dm. Forecast values are in the mid 580s to low 590s through the period, so above normal temperatures are expected most of the period. Shallow surface east-northeast winds may undercut the deep warmth Wed-Thursday, especially in Eastern MA. But as those winds become south-southwest later week and and weekend that should trend back to above-normal temperatures.

Model mass fields are similar through Friday, with only minor differences over the weekend. Those differences are the usual ones dealing with shortwaves in a zonal flow. Confidence is moderate-high through through Monday.

Daily details .

Wednesday .

Upper low and cold pool from Tuesday will be moving off for the Maritimes Wednesday. But it remains close enough Wednesday morning that the cold pool instability may generate a few morning showers in Eastern MA. High pressure builds south from Nrn New England, bringing a low-level northeast flow through at least the Central Hills. Dew points in the mid 50s to low 60s will mean a comfortable day for most.

Models hint at some pcpn in Northwest MA in the afternoon/evening, but parameters are weak . forecast CAPE less than 100, LI at plus 4 . and leave that scenario less than credible. Mixing to 900-925 mb taps favorable temps for sfc max values in the 70s and low 80s. Low level east flow will keep the cooler temps in eastern MA.

Quiet weather Wednesday night with light wind and areas of fog.

Thursday .

High pressure remains along the coast and favors another dry day on Thursday. Overall a south-southeast surface flow with westerly winds aloft. GFS again hints at afternoon light pcpn in Northwest MA, but again the instability parameters are weak at best. Mixing to 850 mb taps 11-13C temps, so max sfc temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s, possibly a little cooler where the southeast wind is off the water.

Friday .

Upper shortwave moves east from the Great Lakes, driving a surface cold front east. Southwest upper jet increases during the day, with the right entrance to the jet moving over Srn New England. Lifted Index is forecast sub-zero Friday afternoon. PW values climb to between 1.5 and 2.0 inches. Will forecast scattered showers/tstms, some with local downpoours. Convection will linger into Friday night. The cold front is forecast to move through Friday night . expect the chance of convection to end after passage.

Saturday through Monday .

Upper ridge and surface high pressure build over Southern New England Saturday and Sunday. Expect dry weather over the weekend. Some signs of a shortwave forcing its way through the flow on Monday. A cold front works down from the north on Monday and may bring a few showers/thunder. Mixing up to 800 mb will tap 12-13C temps at that level, similar to 17-18C at 850 mb. Expect max sfc temps in the upper 80s and low 90s. Huidity levels will be high, with dew points 65 to 70 during the period . with heat index values in the low to mid 90s Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

20z TAF Update:

Rest of Today: Moderate confidence.

We will continue to see scattered TSRA across S New England through 00z. Any storm would be capable of brief ceiling/vsby reductions, lightning and localized gusty to strong winds.

Tonight: Moderate confidence.

Showers and thunderstorms diminishing in coverage during the evening. Will see conditions across the interior improve to VFR, but not out of the question a few spot that had showers/storms see some patchy fog develop, especially in terminals in fog-prone areas such as KBAF and KBDL. Cape Cod and the Island terminals, especially KACK remaining in MVFR to LIFR stratus and fog.

Tuesday: Moderate confidence.

VFR across the interior, but MVFR to LIFR across eastern coastal locations including BOS. Winds generally out of the north, but eastern coastal areas will see onshore flow.

Tuesday night: High confidence.

Mostly VFR conditions with northeast to northerly flow at 5 to 10 kt. Drier, cooler air advecting into the region should limit development of patchy fog and low clouds to the Eastern MA coast.

KBOS Terminal . Moderate confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . Moderate confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/ .

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible.

Thursday: VFR.

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Saturday: VFR.

MARINE.

Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all waters through Tue afternoon due to 5 ft seas over the outer southern waters. A High Surf Advisory is also in effect until Tuesday evening for the south- facing beaches due to the rip current risk and breaking 4-6 ft waves in the surf zone.

Lower clouds and fog may again develop on the southern waters tonight. Scattered thunderstorms could develop on Tuesday afternoon. Winds turning from southwest to northwest and then northerly by Tuesday afternoon. North winds could gust up to 20 kts Tuesday afternoon into evening over the Eastern waters but stay below small craft criteria.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/ .

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday through Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt.

HYDROLOGY. 430 AM Update .

As for torrential rainfall expecting PWATs of 1.5 to 1.75 which is close to if not just above the 90th percentile per SPCs mesoanalysis. Will also have a warm cloud layer depth of roughly 3 to 4 km. So will have a threat of torrential rainfall. Given the slow moving nature of the frontal boundary there is a threat of flash flooding. Looks like the highest risk of flash flooding is across central and eastern MA and as indicated by WPCs latest Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook.

405 PM Update:

We are looking at a couple of rounds of rain through Monday. The first would amount to light to moderate showers moving in overnight tonight into the first part of Monday. The second round comes in Monday afternoon into early night associated with scattered to numerous thunderstorms along a slowing cold front.

Though some areas have received some rains of late, our area remains abnormally dry. This is reflected by high 1-hourly flash flood guidance which is anywhere from 2 to 2.75" of rain. However, PWAT values remain elevated at values ranging from 1.75-2 inches and support locally heavy downpours. High- res guidance blossoms scattered to numerous thunderstorms along a SW- NE oriented cold front. Signals of thunderstorms backbuilding on the frontal zone and training over the same areas as storms move eastward, could yield torrential rains in a short period of time. HREF neighborhood probabilities for 1" rains in 3-hours are very high at 70-80% from Windsor Locks to Fitchburg eastward to the Boston-Providence/I-95 corridor, with lower probs of 3" rains in 3-hours. If heavier rains fall over a typically vulnerable area, such as the larger cities where rain can go readily to runoff, a localized flash flood threat could materialize.

Antecedent conditions and uncertainties in QPF and placement on the front precludes a Flash Flood Watch at this time. However it may need to be considered in later updates near or east of the frontal boundary, especially as storms are expected to coincide around or with the Monday PM rush hour.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for MAZ023-024. RI . High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for RIZ008. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ235-237-255- 256.

SYNOPSIS . WTB/Chai NEAR TERM . Loconto/Chai SHORT TERM . Chai LONG TERM . WTB AVIATION . WTB/Loconto/Chai MARINE . WTB/Chai HYDROLOGY .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 21 mi33 min 71°F1 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 26 mi30 min SSW 9.7 G 14 73°F1007.9 hPa
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 32 mi70 min S 14 G 16 73°F 3 ft1007.6 hPa (-0.8)67°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 34 mi75 min S 2.9 78°F 1008 hPa70°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 35 mi60 min 74°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 42 mi60 min 73°F

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA6 mi68 minSW 5 G 1510.00 miOvercast75°F69°F82%1009.2 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA19 mi64 minSSW 11 G 1810.00 miA Few Clouds79°F71°F77%1008.1 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA22 mi64 minSSW 1110.00 miFair79°F71°F77%1008 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCQX

Wind History from CQX (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Nauset Harbor, Cape Cod, Massachusetts
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Nauset Harbor
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:45 AM EDT     1.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:30 AM EDT     5.48 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:06 PM EDT     0.89 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:58 PM EDT     5.68 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.211.52.43.54.75.45.44.843.12.21.30.91.2234.35.35.75.44.73.82.9

Tide / Current Tables for Pollock Rip Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Pollock Rip Channel
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:22 AM EDT     1.67 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:22 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:00 AM EDT     -1.44 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:07 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:42 PM EDT     1.79 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:48 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:32 PM EDT     -1.53 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:44 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.71.61.20.4-0.6-1.2-1.4-1.3-0.8-0.10.71.41.71.81.50.8-0.2-1-1.5-1.5-1.2-0.60.2

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.