Orleans, MA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Orleans, MA


December 9, 2023 12:20 AM EST (05:20 UTC)
Sunrise 6:54AM   Sunset 4:11PM   Moonrise  4:17AM   Moonset 2:50PM 

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ254 Coastal Waters From Provincetown Ma To Chatham Ma To Nantucket Ma Out 20 Nm- 1001 Pm Est Fri Dec 8 2023
.storm watch in effect from late Sunday night through Monday afternoon...
Overnight..S winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain.
Sun night..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, increasing to 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 55 kt after midnight. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Patchy fog. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..S winds 35 to 40 kt with gusts up to 60 kt, becoming W 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Patchy fog. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..W winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
Tue..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Tue night through Wed night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 1001 Pm Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pressure moves offshore on Saturday. Powerful low pressure will move across the waters Sunday night and Monday. Winds are expected to reach storm force, producing very rough seas. Conditions gradually improve on Tuesday as high pressure builds to the south of the region.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orleans CDP, MA
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Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 090329 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1029 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure over New England tonight drifts offshore Saturday, providing dry, tranquil weather to our region. A strong frontal system has the potential to bring a period of heavy rain, strong southerly winds to the entire region, with possible coastal flooding along the south coast. All of this occurring from late Sunday into Monday morning. A few snow showers across northwest Massachusetts are possible Monday afternoon and evening as the system departs. Otherwise turning drier Monday evening with a brief shot of colder air, but temperatures look to rebound back closer to seasonable levels Tuesday through Thursday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
Main changes this evening were to temperatures. The combination of mainly clear skies and light winds led to excellent radiational cooling. The greatest changes were across portions of SE MA. Otherwise, dry weather continues.

Still monitoring the possible development of lower clouds across portions of western MA. The latest near term guidance continued to advertise this, but have yet to see signs of it in the latest observations.

Previous Discussion...

Tonight...

* Dry & seasonably cold tonight * Low prob (10-20%) of patchy frost/black ice overnight

Deep layer ridge provides dry weather tonight. Surface ridge promotes light winds and with dew pts in the 20s to lower 30s, along with mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions, some radiational cooling will allow min temps to fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s. Mid 30s for the urban areas. Given these conditions, we derived overnight mins from the colder MOS guidance. These temps are seasonably cold for early Dec.

The only wrinkle to the forecast is later tonight, as the high drifts offshore, light S-SE flow develops and allows dew pts to slowly rise into the low 30s across CT/RI and eastern coastal MA. Given recent nighttime lows have been in the teens and 20s, dew pts rising at or above freezing and streaming over subfreezing ground temps, may yield patchy frost/black ice on secondary roads, parking lots, sidewalks, etc. Not confident enough to issue a SPS, but something we will be watching this evening and overnight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
315 PM update...

Saturday...

* Mainly dry and milder Saturday

Warm front approaches from the southwest. Any morning sunshine will give way to mostly cloudy conditions by afternoon. Warm sector airmass bleeds into RI and southeast MA with dew pts into the mid 40s, and highs in the mid 50s. However, the true warm sector airmass holds off until Sunday. Not expecting any precip with the warm front Saturday, as model soundings indicate lots of mid level dry air, but can't rule out a few sprinkles especially across the interior. Otherwise, it's a dry Saturday with above normal temps. SSE winds 5- 10 mph across the interior, 10-15 mph along the coast.

Saturday night...

* Mainly dry and milder * Areas of fog possible

Warm sector airmass advects northward with dew pts in the 40s across CT/RI and eastern MA. This combined with boundary layer cooling should yield areas of fog. Could have some patchy drizzle, but otherwise it's a mainly dry night. Lows in the lower 40s, mid to upper 30s across interior CT, northwest RI into central- western MA. Light south winds, except 10-15 mph along the south coast and Islands.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Key Points...

* Increasing chance of rain through the day on Sunday with increasingly gusty winds.

* The bulk of a strong storm system will arrive overnight Sunday and Monday morning bringing widespread rain, strong (potentially damaging) winds, and the possibility of coastal flooding on the south coast.

* Quiet, mostly dry, and colder through the rest of the week.

Much of the day Sunday will be a transition from the quiet and dry Saturday to the very wet and windy period Sunday night and early Monday. Southern New England will be placed between an exiting ridge over the west Atlantic and a deep trough digging into the Great Lakes. This funnels abnormally warm and moist air into the region leading to a very mild and breezy day with highs reaching the low 60s! The previously mentioned deep trough then swings through Sunday night into Monday bringing unsettled weather including widespread rain with flooding potential, strong winds, and coastal flooding. Details on that system are below. The dry slot punches into the region quickly behind the front (by mid day on Monday) bringing precipitation to a quick end save for some light, orographically enhanced snow showers over the Berkshires on Monday. Beyond Monday we have a quiet set up for the rest of the work week with a series of high pressures just to our south interrupted by one moisture started frontal system around Wednesday which should remain dry for the vast majority of the area with highs in the 40s each day.

The focus of the extended forecast period continues to be late Sunday and early Monday when a slightly negatively tilted mid level trough and strengthening surface frontal system will cross the region accompanied by highly anomalous moisture and winds, both of which are in the 99.5 percentile compared to climatology.

Firstly, the threat for excessive rainfall potentially leading to flooding issues has increased in the last 24 hours, and thus a Flood Watch has been issued for CT and western/central MA.
This is where the strongest dynamics (divergence from 145 kt upper jet, convergence ahead of the low level jet, amongst other things) combine with PWATs over 1.25 inches and have the potential to lead to rainfall amounts of 3+ inches in some locations (more widespread 1-2+ inches). If you believe the GFS ensemble there is even a 20-30% chance of 4+ inches! If these rainfall amounts were to materialize there is a chance we could see river flooding in addition to the expected urban and poor drainage flooding issues. The MMEFS is now showing a 30% chance of points along the CT River reaching moderate flood stage (up from minor yesterday). WPC has introduced a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for areas where we currently have the Flood Watch out. An additional factor is the chance of some limited elevated instability in the warm sector which could enhance rainfall further east in any convection.

Another issue will be potential for damaging winds. Confidence for strong winds has only increased in the last 24 hours, and a High Wind Watch has been issued for Cape Cod and the islands as well as a Storm Watch for the waters. Low level jet dynamics remain largely unchanged, with winds at 925 mb ranging from ~50 kts over central MA to 75-85kts over Cape Cod. There will be the typical fight between the jet screaming just a few thousand feet above the surface and a pretty robust temperature inversion just below it. BUFKIT soundings indicate that the bulk of the jet remains aloft which is why a High Wind Watch has been issued which can later be either replaced with a High Wind Warning or a Wind Advisory depending on the higher resolution guidance as we get closer to the event. For what it's worth, the EPS ensemble continues to advertise a 80-90% chance of gusts 58mph+ on the outer Cape and Nantucket.

Coastal flooding is the final hazard that will be possible with this system, focused on the Monday morning high tide along the south coast, namely Narragansett Bay. If the stronger winds materialize (mix down) they could lead to as much as 3 feet of surge. Then, if that surge coincides with high tide (6:20 am in Providence) it could lead to coastal flooding. At the Fox Point forecast location the mean of flood guidance takes it to around 7 ft (minor flood) but a worse case scenario takes it to near 9 ft (moderate flood). Too soon to know with any certainty but both are in the realm of possibility with this system. Post frontal winds will then kick up during the day on Monday with winds gusting 35-45 mph out of the west.

AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight...VFR cloud bases, dry weather and winds SSW. Low probability that low clouds could bring periods of IFR.

Saturday...VFR cloud bases, dry weather, south winds 5-10 kt inland, 10-15 kt along the coast.

Saturday night...VFR cloud bases and dry weather. However, trending MVFR in areas of fog and a risk of showers toward 12z Sun across western MA/CT. South winds 5-10 kt.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Quiet weather through Saturday evening but there is a low probability that low clouds could bring periods of IFR tonight.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Quiet weather through Saturday evening but there is a low probability that low clouds could bring periods of IFR tonight.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Chance RA, patchy BR.

Sunday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong winds with gusts up to 55 kt. RA, patchy BR, isolated TSRA.

Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Strong winds with gusts up to 60 kt. Chance RA, patchy BR.

Monday Night: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 45 kt.

Tuesday through Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

315 PM update...

High Confidence through Saturday night.

Tonight...light & variable winds this evening becoming S-SE and light overnight. Dry weather and good vsby as high pressure drifts just offshore.

Saturday...high pressure drifts farther offshore with a weak warm front moving across New England. Dry weather and good vsby prevail, along with light S-SE winds.

Saturday night...warm front north of the MA/RI waters, with winds shifting from SSE to SSW overnight. This likely leads to areas of fog with reduced vsby. Mainly dry but can't rule out patchy drizzle at times.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain, patchy fog. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Sunday Night: Low risk for storm force winds with gusts up to 60 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Rain, patchy fog. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Monday: Low risk for storm force winds with gusts up to 60 kt.
Rough seas up to 16 ft. Rain, patchy fog. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Monday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft.

Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for CTZ002>004.
MA...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
High Wind Watch from late Sunday night through Monday afternoon for MAZ022>024.
RI...High Wind Watch from late Sunday night through Monday afternoon for RIZ008.
Coastal Flood Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for ANZ230-236.
Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Monday afternoon for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
CHTM3 6 mi62 min 31°F
44090 21 mi50 min 42°F 48°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 26 mi40 min SE 7.8G9.7 43°F 45°F30.2739°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 32 mi40 min SSE 9.7G12 41°F 48°F30.2834°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 34 mi95 min NE 1 34°F 30.2734°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 35 mi62 min 35°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 42 mi62 min 42°F

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Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KCQX CHATHAM MUNI,MA 6 sm28 mincalm10 smClear32°F28°F86%30.28
KHYA BARNSTABLE MUNIBOARDMAN/POLANDO FIELD,MA 19 sm24 mincalm10 smClear27°F25°F93%30.27

Wind History from CQX
(wind in knots)


Tide / Current for Nauset Harbor, Cape Cod, Massachusetts
   
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Nauset Harbor
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Fri -- 02:02 AM EST     0.89 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:11 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:54 AM EST     5.75 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:27 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:36 PM EST     0.76 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:08 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:20 PM EST     5.37 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Nauset Harbor, Cape Cod, Massachusetts, Tide feet
12
am
2.2
1
am
1.3
2
am
0.9
3
am
1.2
4
am
2
5
am
3.2
6
am
4.5
7
am
5.4
8
am
5.7
9
am
5.4
10
am
4.7
11
am
3.8
12
pm
2.7
1
pm
1.7
2
pm
0.9
3
pm
0.8
4
pm
1.4
5
pm
2.3
6
pm
3.6
7
pm
4.7
8
pm
5.3
9
pm
5.2
10
pm
4.6
11
pm
3.8



Tide / Current for Pollock Rip Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Pollock Rip Channel
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Fri -- 02:11 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:35 AM EST     1.85 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:39 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:26 AM EST     -1.62 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:36 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:28 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:05 PM EST     1.82 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:09 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:07 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:48 PM EST     -1.51 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:51 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Pollock Rip Channel, Massachusetts Current, knots
12
am
0.8
1
am
1.4
2
am
1.8
3
am
1.8
4
am
1.5
5
am
0.7
6
am
-0.3
7
am
-1.2
8
am
-1.6
9
am
-1.6
10
am
-1.2
11
am
-0.5
12
pm
0.3
1
pm
1.1
2
pm
1.6
3
pm
1.8
4
pm
1.7
5
pm
1.1
6
pm
0.1
7
pm
-0.8
8
pm
-1.4
9
pm
-1.5
10
pm
-1.3
11
pm
-0.7




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