Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brewster, MA

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Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 7:34PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 7:32 AM EDT (11:32 UTC) Moonrise 10:43PMMoonset 11:32AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 716 Am Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. A slight chance of showers with isolated tstms this afternoon. Some tstms may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.
Fri night..W winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat through Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Am Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A warm front will move north this morning drawing warm and very humid air over the waters. This will bring patchy fog as well as showers and scattered Thunderstorms today through Thursday. A cold front then sweeps across the waters sometime Thursday night into early Friday morning. Dry weather and good vsby follows for Friday into the weekend. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brewster, MA
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location: 41.77, -70.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 211118
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
718 am edt Wed aug 21 2019

Synopsis
A warm front will push across the region today, bringing
scattered showers and thunderstorms along with increasing heat
and humidity. A cold front crosses the region on Thursday with
another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms, which
will linger into early Friday across southern areas as the front
slowly pushes offshore. High pressure builds across the
northeast, with steady onshore winds bringing cool temperatures
into early next week. There may also be a chance for low clouds
along with spotty light rain or showers Sunday through Tuesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
650 am update...

area of showers isolated thunderstorms crossing western mass
into northern worcester county will continue to shift NE through
mid morning as the warm front lifts across the region. Other
areas of showers thunderstorms remain across the southern waters
early this morning. Then, another area of showers thunderstorms
across central W ny into NW pa close to or ahead of pre-frontal
trough, which should begin to increase in coverage and
intensity as daytime heating kicks in full force through mid
morning.

Should see a brief break in the action as the early morning
convection shifts into S vt nh, then should see area of stronger
convection pushing slowly e-se from late morning through the
afternoon.

Have updated the forecast for today to reflect current trends
and incorporated latest hi res model data.

Previous discussion...

short range models such as the high res WRF show some showers
with the increasingly warm, unstable air this morning, distinct
from a second round of convection moving west to east this
afternoon evening. The second round of precip is associated with
a shortwave aloft and surface trough moving through later
today this evening.

Pre-dawn satellite trends showed a broken layer of clouds with
the convection. This along with normal diurnal trends would
suggest the Sun will break through any cloud cover and generate
the necessary daytime heating. Sb CAPE climbs to 1500-2500 j kg,
as has been indicated in previous days, while LI values range
from down to -7. Winds aloft show 30 kt at 850 mb and 35 kt at
500 mb. Helicity in the 0-3 km layer shows 150 to 250, a little
higher than forecast in past days. Based on this we expect a
continued risk of strong damaging thunderstorm winds.

Precipitable water values will be around 2 inches today, with
with lift generated by the shortwave and trough on an unstable
airmass. As such, we continue to see a risk of downpours which
could cause poor drainage flooding, especially in areas of
thunderstorm training.

The best chance of strong winds and downpours would be in NRN ct
and central western ma. But aside from that relative comparison,
all parts of our forecast area are in play for strong tstms and
downpours.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
The shortwave and surface trough eventually move off to the east
tonight, but timing should allow for additional evening
convection with strong winds downpours. But this should diminish
by midnight. Models show no significant chance in airmass, and
dew points will be in the upper 60s and low 70s, so expect a
humid night with areas of fog and lows in the upper 60s and low
70s.

Closed low over james bay sweeps south and pushes a cold front
south into new england. After the morning fog burns off, daytime
heating will work on 16-18c 850 temps to warm the surface to
the mid 80s to around 90. Low level humidity remains in place.

Pw values diminish in the morning, but then climb back to near 2
inches in the afternoon. Instability parameters will not be as
beefy as today, but will show 500-1000 j kg in the interior and
1000-1500 j kg in ri SE mass. So expect showers and scattered
tstms especially in the afternoon.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Highlights...

* scattered showers and a few thunderstorms linger Thursday
night as the cold front slowly crosses
* showers linger on Friday with cooler temperatures
* expect mild temperatures and dry conditions Saturday
* cooler than normal temperatures expected Sunday through
Tuesday along with spotty light rain or showers at times
details...

Thursday night...

as the cold front crosses the region, will still see areas of
showers and a few lingering thunderstorms, mainly near and south
of the mass pike. Will see instability decrease as the front
pushes slowly through, but may still see some locally heavy
downpours as another deep moisture layer moving across. Pwat
plume increases to around 2 inches across N ct ri to E mass as
an associated short wave slowly crosses near the slowly moving
front. Could see some locally heavy downpours once again with
this feature.

Friday...

as the front becomes nearly parallel with the mid level steering
flow, could see leftover showers linger along the S coast, cape
cod and the islands through around midday before finally pushing
offshore. Expect the back edge of the cloud deck to slowly shift
southward, pushing offshore late in the day. Light w-nw winds
take over, allowing drier air to move in. Expect temperatures to
top off in the 70s, with a few spots touching 80, along with
decreasing humidity.

Saturday through Tuesday...

quite a bit of model solution spread amongst the members this
morning, with lends to lower confidence on the forecast during
this timeframe.

Rather confident with the slow but steady movement of the high
pressure across northern new england, setting up across maine
into eastern quebec and new brunswick late this weekend. This
will set up a NE and eventually easterly wind flow by the start
of the work week. Could see some gusts up to 20-25 mph across
cape cod and the islands, possibly into S coastal areas on
Sunday. The big question will be whether patchy light rain
and or showers could develop from time to time from Sunday to
Tuesday. Where these showers and or rain set up is in question,
but have kept slight chance pops going for now. At this point,
looks like there might be a somewhat better chance for more
organized showers Monday into Tuesday, but not a lot of
confidence.

With the steady onshore flow, expect temps to run around 5
degrees or so below seasonal normals, mainly from Sunday to
Tuesday. Highs on Sunday and Monday may not break 70 at some
locations along E coastal mass.

Aviation 12z Wednesday through Sunday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ... Moderate confidence.

Through 12z...VFR. May see local ifr conditions along the outer
cape and nantucket.

Today...

mainlyVFR, with MVFR to local ifr conditions in showers and
scattered thunderstorms. Scattered showers tstms across W mass
will shift NE by around 14z-15z. Another round of shra tsra will
develop by midday, moving across the region through this
afternoon. The best chance for showers tstms will be in
n ct and western central mass in the afternoon and evening. A
few strong storms are possible with gusty winds, frequent
lightning, and heavy downpours.

Tonight...

MVFRVFR with scattered showers tstms especially in the
evening. SW winds gusting to 20 kt, especially over CAPE cod
and islands.

Thursday...

vfr MVFR in the morning...VFR in the afternoon with brief MVFR
in showers tstms possible.

Kbos terminal... Moderate to high uncertainty in timing and
coverage of showers tstms. A few showers storms possible late
this morning, but best chance will be mid to late afternoon with
areas of MVFR-ifr conditions possible.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate to high uncertainty in timing and
coverage of showers tstms. Should see mainlyVFR conditions
through midday. Best chance for showers storms will be from 18z
through 00z with areas of MVFR-ifr conditions.

Outlook Thursday night through Sunday ... Moderate confidence
Thursday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance shra.

Friday through Sunday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ... High confidence.

Today... Warm humid air moves back over the waters. South-
southwest winds, with some gusts to 20 kt. Expect scattered
showers and thunderstorms, with some strong wind gusts and
downpours. Vsby 1-3 nm in downpours and patchy fog.

Tonight... Showers and thunderstorms diminish after 10 pm. Vsby
1-3 nm in patchy fog. Persistent south to southwest winds will
build waves to 5-6 feet, so we have issued a small craft
advisory for some of the southern waters.

Thursday... Winds continue from the southwest much of the day,
ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect another round of
showers and scattered thunderstorms. Winds will remain less than
25 kt while seas will be around 5 feet on parts of the southern
waters.

Outlook Thursday night through Sunday ... Moderate confidence.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms.

Friday through Friday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt.

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 8 pm edt
Thursday for anz254>256.

Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 11 am edt
Thursday for anz235-237.

Synopsis... Wtb evt
near term... Wtb evt
short term... Wtb
long term... Evt
aviation... Wtb evt
marine... Wtb evt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 14 mi33 min 71°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 22 mi23 min S 7.8 G 12 74°F 75°F71°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 27 mi48 min Calm 74°F 1016 hPa73°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 30 mi43 min S 7.8 G 7.8 70°F 1 ft1016.3 hPa (-0.5)69°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 34 mi51 min S 2.9 G 5.1 72°F 77°F1016.8 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 36 mi51 min 73°F 73°F1016.4 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA7 mi41 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist69°F68°F96%1017.3 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA12 mi37 minS 410.00 miFair75°F70°F84%1016.4 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA18 mi37 minS 710.00 miFair72°F71°F97%1016.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCQX

Wind History from CQX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW46643NE64E6SE5----SE3CalmCalm----Calm----------4Calm
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SW3----------W3--Calm3
2 days agoCalm----3E543SW6S5S5S3--Calm4S33SW5SW4--S7----SW6SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Pleasant Bay, Quonset Pont, Massachusetts
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Pleasant Bay
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Wed -- 12:53 AM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:16 AM EDT     3.20 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:11 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:39 PM EDT     3.24 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.40.71.322.83.23.12.51.91.410.70.40.511.82.53.13.22.82.21.61.2

Tide / Current Tables for Pollock Rip Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Pollock Rip Channel
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Wed -- 01:57 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:34 AM EDT     -1.74 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:40 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:55 AM EDT     1.93 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:22 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:59 PM EDT     -1.74 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:07 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:19 PM EDT     1.82 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.50.9-0.1-1-1.7-1.7-1.3-0.60.31.21.81.91.71.20.4-0.7-1.5-1.7-1.5-0.9-0.10.81.51.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.