Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Brewster, MA

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and seasonable through the afternoon and much of the day Thursday.

- Watching the risk for another round of showers and storms Friday afternoon, some of which may be severe.

- A few showers Saturday followed by a warming and drying trend into next week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and seasonable through the afternoon and much of the day Thursday.

High pressure should continue to build into the region as afternoon temperatures climb into the low to mid 80s with upper 70s along the coastline. 18Z satellite imagery shows a nice field of cumulus popping up across the region. This drier pattern will continue into tomorrow as high pressure stalls across much of the northeastern CONUS. Light west-northwesterly winds will persist through the evening, before turning more southwesterly overnight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Watching the risk for another round of showers and storms Friday afternoon, some of which may be severe.

Chance for widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms arrives Thursday as a warm front pushes through the region.
Model soundings show elevated instability with MLCAPE values generally <500 J/kg, so not expecting severe weather. Best chance for any embedded thunder will be across western MA.
Showers likely continue through Friday morning with lingering low level clouds preventing much in the way of destabilization early in the day. Confidence decreases Friday afternoon with guidance divided into two camps with respect to the convective threat. The GFS and NAM show a scenario with quicker clearing with surface CAPE building >1000 J/kg beneath >40kts of effective shear. Should have ample forcing with a cold front approaching from the W later Friday afternoon. Other guidance, shows significantly less destabilization and a lower chance for widespread convection. The NBM shows a solid signal (35-50%)
chance for CAPE values >1000J by 18Z Friday for northern and central MA and CT. Notably, this is a significant increase from the 07z run, likely hinting at an overall shift in model consensus towards higher instability Friday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A few showers Saturday followed by a warming and drying trend into next week.

Guidance shows another wave of low pressure approaching the region Saturday. The consensus is to have this feature track well to the S of the region, though the chance remains that some showers could impact the south coast heading into the daylight hours. Aside from this, dry weather is expected to return heading into the start of next week as high pressure associated with an amplified upper level ridge moves into southern New England. A warming trend also kicks off for the start of the work week, continuing into midweek. However, details on just how warm it may get are still uncertain at this time.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

00Z TAF Update...

Tonight through Thursday Afternoon...High confidence.

VFR with southwesterly winds 10 kts, or less. There is a potential for a localized sea breeze to develop across portions of the immediate coast on Thursday afternoon. Can't rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm after 00Z Thursday night.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.

Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Saturday Night through Monday: VFR.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Thursday...High confidence.

Expect winds to remain generally light through Thursday afternoon, before becoming a little breezy (gusts possible up to 20 kt) Thursday afternoon. Seas should remain 2 to 4 ft with the possibility of some 5 footers reaching the southern outer waters, but not expected to be widespread, or prolonged. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening into Friday.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.