Tuesday, January28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sandwich, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 4:52PM Tuesday January 28, 2020 1:55 PM EST (18:55 UTC) Moonrise 10:13AMMoonset 9:36PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sandwich CDP, MA
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location: 41.78, -70.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 281534 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1034 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2020

SYNOPSIS.

Dry and quiet weather through much of the week with temperatures trending downward today through Thursday. Expect more clouds than sunshine today as a cold front slides through. Ocean effect rain and snow showers late today become all snow showers tonight across Cape Cod and Nantucket. Any ocean effect showers taper off late tonight. High pressure over Ontario builds toward the region Wed and Thu resulting in dry and seasonably cold weather. The high moves offshore Friday with temperatures moderating. Still watching for the potential for a coastal storm which may impact the region Saturday/Sat night, though it remains far from a certainty. Dry, blustery and colder weather likely follows Sunday into Monday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

1010 AM Update .

Clouds dominate across the northeast U.S. at mid morning as low pressure continues to spin across the Maritimes. A dry cold front will shift S across the region, reaching the S coast by 18Z.

With low and mid level moisture from between 3000 and 6000 ft, as seen on 12Z BUFKIT model soundings, will see more clouds than sun through the remainder of the day across the region.

Noting patchy light precip on the KBOX radar imagery, running in a broken line E of Cape Ann and Cape Cod, with lowering clouds across the outer Cape as well. Also watching some thin bands of possible showers across central and interior NE Mass, but with T/Td spreads of 8 to 14 degrees, this precip will likely evaporate before reaching the ground.

Temps at 15Z were running in the mid 30s away from the coast to around 40 at the shoreline. Should see readings rise a few more degrees over the next couple of hours. Will also see N-NW winds gusting up to about 20 kt mainly across E Mass and along the coast.

Previous Discussion .

Cyclonic flow persists across the region today with cold air advection from the northwest. Will see -8 to -10 degree Celsius 850 hPa air advect in.

Cape Cod and Nantucket may see some ocean effect rain showers transition to snow showers as cold air filters in with winds out of the north-northwest. Chances will increase throughout the day. Leaned on the latest HREF and NAMNest guidance to determine how widespread the ocean effect showers will be, but think the best opportunity will be this evening.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/.

The cyclonic flow persists through the short term. Good agreement amongst guidance that a shortwave digs from the central/eastern Great Lakes to south of southern New England by Wednesday morning. A ridge will build into the central Great Lakes on Wednesday.

Tonight .

As the shortwave exits, expect drier air to advect in behind the trough. Flow will still be north/north northwesterly, so still may see scattered ocean effect rain showers change to snow showers through around 09Z with the best lift coinciding with the high RH wrt ice. After 09Z, should see drier air advect in and lessen the chances of snow showers. There is some disagreement in how quickly things dry out as the ARW/NMM and GEM linger the ocean effect snow into Wednesday morning. Think that this is too long per the NAM/NAMNest and GFS, but is something to keep an eye on. Expect this to be the timeframe where the snowfall accumulates. Expect anywhere from a dusting to an inch of accumulation on Cape Cod.

Low temperatures range from the mid teens across the eastern Berkshires to the low 30s across the outer Cape.

Wednesday .

Decreasing cloud cover as high pressure nudges into the region. Temperatures still trending downward due to northerly cold air advection. High temperatures will generally be in the 30s across southern New England.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/.

Highlights .

* Mainly dry Wed night into Fri with seasonably cold temps but rebounding above normal by Fri

* Still monitoring for a potential storm Saturday/Sat night, but forecast confidence remains very low on details

Details .

Wed night/Thursday .

Potent closed low tracks north to south from Quebec across the Canadian Maritimes this period and spreads a shallow colder airmass across New England with 925 mb temps falling to about -8C to -10C. This will result in a chilly night with low temps at or slightly colder than normal. This colder air being delivered on northeast flow and streaming across warmer than normal ocean will yield steep low level lapse rates and lots of ocean effect clouds into eastern MA and perhaps a few snow showers or flurries across Cape Cod and coastal Plymouth county. Remaining chilly Thu but temps near seasonable with highs in the low to mid 30s. It will be fairly pleasant by late Jan standards with mostly sunny conditions (although ocean effect clouds may linger over southeast MA trapped beneath subsidence inversion) and light winds with 1025 mb high pres overhead.

Friday .

Dry weather with short wave ridging building across southern New England. Light WSW winds with high pressure drifting offshore and 925 mb temps moderating to about -3C should support highs Fri afternoon into the lower 40s (upper 30s hilly terrain) along with sunshine and light winds. Probably pick of the week.

The Weekend .

Still lots of uncertainty among 00z deterministic and ensemble guidance regarding track of coastal storm Sat/Sat night. 00z GFS and UKMET have trended closer to the coast while 00z ECMWF has a lead wave Fri night/Sat delivering some snow/rain to southern New England. Then, the EC has a trailing much stronger short wave digging from the OH Valley to the Mid Atlc Sat night with secondary cyclogenesis well offshore.

00z EC ensembles continue to display large spread in low tracks and many members supporting surface pressures in the 980s mb range. Thus there is the potential for a potent system, but track and when phasing occurs remain highly uncertain. In addition, lack of cold air over southern New England preceding the storm yields the possibility of ptype issues especially if this new northwest/closer to the coast trend continues.

Short wave energy that will initiate cyclogenesis/storm development is currently over the northern Pacific with jet energy emerging from a complex 3 separate closed low configuration from the Gulf of AK to the Aleutians. How this energy ejects out of this complex configuration and then tracks across the CONUS screams high uncertainty. Thus, will just have to see how trends evolve over the next few days.

For what it's worth, the past two runs from the EC ensembles have about 20% of its members supporting 6+ inches of snow for the I-95 corridor. Conversely, the remainder of the members are misses with phasing too late and other members with rain/snow line farther northwest focusing heavy snow threat over NY state into northern-central New England. Thus at this time range all possible outcomes remain in play.

A drying trend should follow Sunday behind the departing cyclone.

Monday:

Ensembles suggest dry northwest flow with temps at or slightly above normal.

AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

15Z Update .

Through 00Z .

Mainly VFR, with CIGS from around 3500 to 6000 ft. Will see areas of MVFR CIGS from 2000-3000 ft across portions of E coastal Mass and N central/W Mass into N central CT. Scattered ocean effect rain showers may push into the mid and outer Cape and Nantucket around mid to late afternoon with local VSBYS reduced to around 3SM.

Tonight .

VFR across most locations, but could see MVFR CIGS across the eastern slopes of the Berkshires and eastern coastal MA. Best chance for MVFR ceilings is across Cape Cod and Nantucket where ocean effect snow showers are possible. Best opportunity for snow showers is at HYA and ACK. Drier air moves in after midnight, which should bring an end to any of this activity.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF through 00Z. Moderate confidence after 00Z as MVFR ceilings may move in along the E coast and develop across N central/W Mass.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/ .

Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Thursday through Friday: VFR.

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SN.

Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance RA, chance SN.

MARINE.

Short Term /through Wednesday/ . High confidence.

Through this afternoon . N-NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Scattered rain showers across the eastern waters from Nantucket to Cape Cod to E of Cape Ann, but dry elsewhere. Seas 4 ft or less. Visibility as low as 3 miles in any showers. Good visibility elsewhere.

Tonight . Winds becoming N 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Scattered rain/snow showers across the eastern waters from east of Boston Harbor to near and east of Cape Cod and Nantucket. Visibility of 1 to 3 miles in precipitation. Good visibility elsewhere.

Wednesday . NW winds 10 to 15 kt gusts increasing to 15 to 20 kts during the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft approaching 5 ft across the eastern waters. Good visibility.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/ .

Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Nocera/BL NEAR TERM . Nocera/BL/EVT SHORT TERM . BL LONG TERM . Nocera AVIATION . Nocera/BL/EVT MARINE . Nocera/BL/EVT


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 9 mi25 min 39°F3 ft
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 14 mi70 min WNW 6 40°F 1006 hPa24°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 20 mi91 min 40°F 39°F1006.4 hPa
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 23 mi55 min 14 G 18 1006 hPa
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 35 mi65 min NW 14 G 18 37°F 4 ft1005.6 hPa (+0.0)24°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 36 mi61 min 40°F 40°F1006.7 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 37 mi55 min 40°F 1006.4 hPa (-0.8)
FRXM3 37 mi61 min 40°F 23°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 39 mi55 min N 15 G 16 39°F 1006.6 hPa (-0.9)
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 40 mi55 min 39°F 39°F1005.9 hPa (-0.5)
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 40 mi65 min NNW 9.7 G 12 38°F 42°F3 ft1005.6 hPa (-0.5)26°F
PRUR1 45 mi55 min 41°F 21°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 46 mi55 min 39°F 40°F1006.5 hPa (-0.9)
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 46 mi70 min N 7 40°F 1007 hPa22°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 46 mi55 min 40°F 1007.1 hPa (-0.8)
PVDR1 47 mi55 min 40°F 1006.9 hPa (-0.8)22°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 48 mi55 min 40°F 38°F1006.7 hPa (-0.8)
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 48 mi55 min 40°F 36°F1006.5 hPa (-0.8)

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA9 mi65 minN 810.00 miOvercast37°F24°F60%1006.1 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA13 mi59 minNNW 810.00 miOvercast40°F25°F55%1005.5 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA16 mi63 minNNW 1010.00 miOvercast39°F21°F50%1006.3 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA22 mi59 minNNW 1010.00 miOvercast39°F28°F65%1006.2 hPa
Marshfield Airport, MA24 mi80 minVar 510.00 miOvercast39°F26°F61%1006.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFMH

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal (East Entrance), Massachusetts
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Cape Cod Canal (East Entrance)
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:18 AM EST     8.44 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:20 AM EST     0.84 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:13 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:26 PM EST     9.09 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:50 PM EST     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:35 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.48.48.27.15.53.720.91.12.44.26.17.998.97.86.14.32.40.80.41.22.74.5

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:27 AM EST     -4.20 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:29 AM EST     0.19 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:27 AM EST     3.99 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 09:13 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:43 AM EST     -0.13 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:42 PM EST     -4.49 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:52 PM EST     0.20 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:36 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 08:55 PM EST     4.19 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.5-3.4-4.1-4.1-3.4-2.12.13.43.93.93.42.4-1.6-3.4-4.3-4.5-4-2.81.13.144.23.93.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.